2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Erick]

For conversation sake, would you give up every prospect not named Eury Perez for a Reynolds/Bednar package?

I feel like the answer to this should be yes.

[lou]

For conversation sake, would you give up every prospect not named Eury Perez for a Reynolds/Bednar package?

I feel like the answer to this should be yes.

For me? Yes - but like not to harp on words again, what's every mean? I think some specificity is needed here. I'm not going prospects 2-3-4 (Meyer, Cabrera, Watson) but they can have 2 of them and one of the next five sort of thing, with two more strongly in Marlins 15-20 range.

Watson
Meyer/Cabrera
Bleday/Burdick
McCambley
Jerar/Morisette/Soriano

LFG? That's a pretty good deal with Reynolds struggling? I'd bet that BABIP correction (he's 30 points down and walking, he's fine).

I'd shoot for Burdick and Jerar here to note and bank on Bleday pedigree, as well as hoping Eder/Sixto will come back healthy, and Lewis/Fulton are undervalued on prospect lists (I think they are). Throw in another RP arm or anything to make it happen. Watson/Meyer is probably the move here and that is A LOT for them with strong secondary pieces.

Top 10 of farm after this is probably?

Eury
# 1 pick 2022
Bleday
Sixto
Eder
Fulton
Lewis
Salas
Mack
#2 pick 2022

Which is probably pretty solid considering Meyer/Cabrera just graduated, Lewin doesn't count, and they have massive years of control with Jazz, J. Sanchez, Sandy, Luzardo, and Rogers. Go sign some IFA Bruce.


Also - I'd STILL trade for Laureano and let's talk SS/3B free agency after 2023.


Call this $82 million?

Stallings, Fortes
Cooper, Lewin
Jazz
Wendle, Rojas
Anderson
Reynolds
Laureano
J. Sanchez, Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers
Bender, Pop, Poteet, Sixto, Hernandez
Bleier, Scott, Okert

AAA June call ups - Eury, Bleday, Eder


And I'm almost tempted to say trade Cooper for a RP, have 1B be a Lewin/Anderson platoon, and keep BERTI as the alternative here. Unconventional 1B situation and Cooper is good, but he is old and let the infielders play all over. Soler can also opt out, so maybe Berti is an outright add anyways and then payroll is $72(!!!!) and could be under $70m with no Cooper!!!!


A lot of options here, but yes - trade that fucking farm for TWO bats if you must, and then SPEND MONEY to upgrade whatever it is needs to be upgraded from that team above. Which is likely a veteran RHP RP on a short term deal.



EDIT - It's probably $85-90, not $82*. I am doing fast math. That is still within range to me, and money can be shed there with Hernandez/Scott/Okert/Cooper. They can make this work. It would be easier to just up to $110m though and go for it.....

[rmc523]

We'll see what happens, but this is trending quickly to setting up for next year.

But the problem is it’s always setting up for year X and never actually going for it. I’m not suggesting they go “all in” in the sense of trading the entire farm AND signing a $1 billion contract we can’t afford. Just that there’s seemingly no urgency despite what they say.

[sports24/7]

Jury's still out on Ng. I would argue that Jeter's departure makes it seem like she is the one calling the shots now, when prior to Jeter leaving I think there was still that question.

Lou is correct, the larger problem is continuing to be a Bottom 5 team in Payroll. Avisail Garcia looks like a real bad signing, but if she's working with $45 million for the next 3-4 years instead of $25 million you're talking a completely different caliber of player she is able to court.

I do think the biggest issue is payroll, but while it's early, I think Ng deserves her share of the blame. She got the Sandy deal done, and it's fairly team friendly, but that should have been a fairly easy decision. The offseason plan was either a bad one, or poorly executed. Not getting a closer isn't great, and I don't think they spent wisely if that was all they were going to spend. I also think she got cold feet on some trades, and now, predictably some of those prospects have lost some value. Ultimately, it's shameful that ownership won't spend, and ideally you would have both spent some money, and pulled the trigger on some trades, but doing neither falls on both parties IMO.

[lou]

I do think the biggest issue is payroll, but while it's early, I think Ng deserves her share of the blame. She got the Sandy deal done, and it's fairly team friendly, but that should have been a fairly easy decision. The offseason plan was either a bad one, or poorly executed. Not getting a closer isn't great, and I don't think they spent wisely if that was all they were going to spend. I also think she got cold feet on some trades, and now, predictably some of those prospects have lost some value. Ultimately, it's shameful that ownership won't spend, and ideally you would have both spent some money, and pulled the trigger on some trades, but doing neither falls on both parties IMO.

It's the largest contract ever for a pitcher of his service time - so "sort of" team friendly. They committed to a new payscale for him to be fair. They stepped up big with him and deserve some credit. Also, while some prospects may be down (Watson, Sixto), I'd argue most of the important ones are up (Eury BIG time, Meyer, Cabrera, I. Lewis, Fulton, probably Bleday and Burdick). There are more gains than losses here to me prospect wise.

The FO deserves some blame for sure, but it all starts at the top with the payroll. The Dodgers payroll (with luxury) is literally 4x higher. FOUR times. They can't compete unless they commit something here. Also, I'd mention here about the cold feet with some trades - that is conducive of the payroll situation. They have to be extremely cautious knowing Bruce isn't going to spend. I am sympathetic here. Some fault? Sure. But it's hard for me to evaluate this with one arm tied behind their backs. Things would be radically different if they had $20-30m more to spend which is not a lot.

[lou]

But the problem is it’s always setting up for year X and never actually going for it. I’m not suggesting they go “all in” in the sense of trading the entire farm AND signing a $1 billion contract we can’t afford. Just that there’s seemingly no urgency despite what they say.

I think we all agree.

But I disagree with saying they shouldn't go all-in. It's time. Sacrifice Watson, Meyer/Cabrera, and five more guys in 6-20 prospect range. Spend the extra $20-30m on top of that depending on what else is kept.

Basically they are Milwaukee pre-Yelich and need to make that Yelich move. It's time. Sandy/Pablo/Eury/Luzardo/Rogers and likely keeping Eder and one of Cabrera/Meyer. They can trade a lot and still have a lot.

They should have done this this offseason and fuck them for that, but do it now to opening day and right the wrong. It's really up to Bruce here.

[lou]

Also if we are worried about farm depletion - the 2023 picks will probably be good too in at least the teens FWIW. They got no excuses to not cash in two of the top 4 and then another half dozen or so prospects. They don't need them if they get the 2-4 guys they need at the MLB level.

[sports24/7]

It's the largest contract ever for a pitcher of his service time - so "sort of" team friendly. They committed to a new payscale for him to be fair. They stepped up big with him and deserve some credit. Also, while some prospects may be down (Watson, Sixto), I'd argue most of the important ones are up (Eury BIG time, Meyer, Cabrera, I. Lewis, Fulton, probably Bleday and Burdick). There are more gains than losses here to me prospect wise.

The FO deserves some blame for sure, but it all starts at the top with the payroll. The Dodgers payroll (with luxury) is literally 4x higher. FOUR times. They can't compete unless they commit something here. Also, I'd mention here about the cold feet with some trades - that is conducive of the payroll situation. They have to be extremely cautious knowing Bruce isn't going to spend. I am sympathetic here. Some fault? Sure. But it's hard for me to evaluate this with one arm tied behind their backs. Things would be radically different if they had $20-30m more to spend which is not a lot.

I don’t really disagree too much with any of this. They should definitely get some credit for the Sandy deal, and the fact that it was even “sort of” team friendly was me giving them some props.

As far as prospects, I’m not sure I agree Bleday is up. There are some good things there, but he’s not really wowing anyone like he started to do in the AFL. And I don’t think Eury was ever on the block, so I wasn’t really counting him among the prospects they were talking about in deals. There is some up and down with the prospects, but the odds say more guys will not pan out, than will. So I think it would behoove them to capitalize on that value now.

I do think the payroll situation hamstrings them a bit in trade negotiations, but many of the guys they were looking to make a move for come with team control for a bit.

For sure overall it’s a tough job when you’re being held back by payroll restrictions. But I do think there’s more bad than good so far with Ng even when looking at resources vs production. I think some of her comments are a bit concerning as well, even if it’s not the biggest deal in the world. Now, it’s way too early to say she’s bad at her job. I do think they had a poor plan or poor execution in the off-season, but I’m willing to let the year and next offseason play out and see what she does, hopefully with even more resources.

[rmc523]

I think we all agree.

But I disagree with saying they shouldn't go all-in. It's time. Sacrifice Watson, Meyer/Cabrera, and five more guys in 6-20 prospect range. Spend the extra $20-30m on top of that depending on what else is kept.

Basically they are Milwaukee pre-Yelich and need to make that Yelich move. It's time. Sandy/Pablo/Eury/Luzardo/Rogers and likely keeping Eder and one of Cabrera/Meyer. They can trade a lot and still have a lot.

They should have done this this offseason and fuck them for that, but do it now to opening day and right the wrong. It's really up to Bruce here.

Sorry maybe my “all in” wasn’t clear. I too want them to push and go all in, but not in a Loria way where they’re giving up half the farm for Fernando Rodney.

[Namaste]

Rogers has a -0.2 on June 20th. Maybe he can turn it around a little today?

[Erick]

The fact that some have been saying Jorge Soler has been fine in defense of Kim Ng is wrong.

Jorge Soler has been fine in terms of maybe getting Jorge Soler another contract after the year, but he has not helped the 2022 Marlins at all. Maybe it shouldn't be evaluated this way because luck factors in, but it doesn't take away from the fact that it is what is happening.

(Not counting today, a game in which he's failed multiple times already)

Low Leverage: .256/.326/.538 (.864 .OPS)
Medium Leverage: .185/.292/.359 (.651 .OPS)
High Leverage: .133/.316/.133 (.449 .OPS)

It's actually somewhat consistent with his career too despite the reputation he got for his postseason with the Braves.

In terms of impacting winning for the Marlins in 2022, Jorge Soler has basically been every bit as bad as Avisail Garcia. Both signings were terrible, especially considering corner outfield/DH (Soler has negative defensive value as expected) were not positions of need.

Sandy Alcantara is basically saving Kim Ng's job. She's been god awful. After today, the team will be 20-31 in non-Sandy starts; 9-5 in Sandy starts (which is terrible as well, looking at his gamelogs we should be 11-3 at worst in Sandy's starts).

[rmc523]

The fact that some have been saying Jorge Soler has been fine in defense of Kim Ng is wrong.

Jorge Soler has been fine in terms of maybe getting Jorge Soler another contract after the year, but he has not helped the 2022 Marlins at all. Maybe it shouldn't be evaluated this way because luck factors in, but it doesn't take away from the fact that it is what is happening.

(Not counting today, a game in which he's failed multiple times already)

Low Leverage: .256/.326/.538 (.864 .OPS)
Medium Leverage: .185/.292/.359 (.651 .OPS)
High Leverage: .133/.316/.133 (.449 .OPS)

It's actually somewhat consistent with his career too despite the reputation he got for his postseason with the Braves.

In terms of impacting winning for the Marlins in 2022, Jorge Soler has basically been every bit as bad as Avisail Garcia. Both signings were terrible, especially considering corner outfield/DH (Soler has negative defensive value as expected) were not positions of need.

Sandy Alcantara is basically saving Kim Ng's job. She's been god awful. After today, the team will be 20-31 in non-Sandy starts; 9-5 in Sandy starts (which is terrible as well, looking at his gamelogs we should be 11-3 at worst in Sandy's starts).

Yeah, neither of them should have been signed, and most said that at the time of the signings too.

[Namaste]

It’s sickening to think that we didn’t sign Jansen for 16 million

[fish16]

It’s sickening to think that we didn’t sign Jansen for 16 million

almost as sickening is the fact that Mattingly still is the manager. this is year 7 and he's still a terrible manager. when does he get the boot?

[lou]

It’s sickening to think that we didn’t sign Jansen for 16 million

Doesn't register for me. Far too much money for a reliever for this team. If we could say payroll would be $130m+, go for it though.

Should have probably signed Tepera or Loup for $7million IMO, DFA'd Aguilar, and then used the remaining $16m for bat upgrades. This includes trading the house for Reynolds and BEDNAR as a lot of us speculated on (or smaller deal for Laureano), and then still having $9-13m+ to spend on another bat.

Basically - Bruce Sherman sucks