2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Maybe fish16 is right. Send everything to Oakland for Laureano, Montas, and Kemp. An entire rotation. All of them. Basically keep Watson and Eury, and send all other arms.

Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, Eder, AND Fulton. Throw in Morisette/Lewis/Cappe/Nunez and Jerar too in a 7-3 blockbuster. What do we care if the rotation is Sandy (6), Rogers and Luzardo (5), Pablo and Hernandez (3), and Montas (2), as well as maybe Neidert, Poteet, or Garrett may work out. Deal with a SP issue in 2024 or 2025. Draft a college SP this year with 1st pick and that guy and Eury are potential replacements down the road. Maybe you also swap Eder above for Bleday/Burdick and that conceptually still works, and then Eury/Eder/#1 2022 is the top end pipeline.

This is probably $80m - and if you ditch Aguilar and Bass, you clear another $10+ and that signs you probably Kenley and promote Lewin (with Anderson pitching in at 1B and Wendle 3B), or sign Soler (defer some money) and put Yacabonis or whoever in the bullpen. Or spend $90m and do BOTH. Imagine losing Aguilar and Bass below and adding Kenley and Soler.

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Aguilar, Cooper
Jazz
Rojas, Wendle
Anderson
Sanchez, Kemp
Laureano
Sanchez, DLC

Sandy, Rogers, Montas, Pablo, Luzardo
Floro, Bender, Hernandez, Pop, Head, Bass
Bleier, Okert

That is way too much to give up for that package, I don't think it would take that. Kemp is a journeyman who at 30 years old just had his best season by far. I wouldn't value him much in a trade, plus we just got someone similar in wendle so I don't see the real need for him at any spot if we get laureano in a trade and then sign one more DH type bat.

Keep it at Montas/Laureano and send them Meyer/Cabrera, Bleday/Burdick, Salas/Lewis, Fulton, and maybe one of those higher picks from last year (not watson). I think that's more than enough to get it done. Might not even need to add fulton to that.

[Nick]

Yea I'm on board with this.

Montas, Laureano, Kemp

Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, Bleday/Burdick, Fulton, Morisette/Nunez, Jerar

How can either say no here? Swap in Eury for Meyer or Cabrera also, and just downgrade Fulton to a much lesser arm. It all works out.

I feel like having both Wendle and Kemp on the bench is kind of overkill, if our resources can be used better elsewhere, I think it probably should. Jon Berti is still on the roster and fine for last guy off the bench.

I think I'd stick with Laureano-Montas.

For: Meyer, Bleday, Fulton and Hernandez, that's as much as I'd give up.

Montas makes $5.2 million this year, Laureano $2.8, but subtract about $500K because of his suspension. Also subtract Hernandez's $1.5 million.

So your adding $6 million to a payroll that sat at $55.7 million. That gets you to $61.7 million.

Add Kenley Janson 2 years/ $14 million per. You're at $75.7 million. Sign Soler to 2 years/ $12 million per we're at $87.7 million. Find a way to shed Cooper and Bass and you're down to $81.8 million, which is more than reasonable.

I could be happy with that. Still think the lineup would be just average, but the pitching would be strong enough to you would think get you in the conversation. And you keep Pablo, who is going to help you more than Meyer/Bleday this season, and you keep Watson/Eury who along with this years first round pick should provide a wave of prospect help at least by 2024 if not earier.

[lou]

I feel like having both Wendle and Kemp on the bench is kind of overkill, if our resources can be used better elsewhere, I think it probably should. Jon Berti is still on the roster and fine for last guy off the bench.

I think I'd stick with Laureano-Montas.

For: Meyer, Bleday, Fulton and Hernandez, that's as much as I'd give up.

Montas makes $5.2 million this year, Laureano $2.8, but subtract about $500K because of his suspension. Also subtract Hernandez's $1.5 million.

So your adding $6 million to a payroll that sat at $55.7 million. That gets you to $61.7 million.

Add Kenley Janson 2 years/ $14 million per. You're at $75.7 million. Sign Soler to 2 years/ $12 million per we're at $87.7 million. Find a way to shed Cooper and Bass and you're down to $81.8 million, which is more than reasonable.

I could be happy with that. Still think the lineup would be just average, but the pitching would be strong enough to you would think get you in the conversation. And you keep Pablo, who is going to help you more than Meyer/Bleday this season, and you keep Watson/Eury who along with this years first round pick should provide a wave of prospect help at least by 2024 if not earier.

I think Kemp is a radical upgrade over Berti and dramatically injury proofs the team, but I get it he may be a luxury add. You basically get him as a thrown in by overwhelming them with other guys.

Meyer, Bleday, Fulton, and Hernandez is light. Laureano is a 4.7 WAR player per 600/PA for his career. Montas gets a centerpiece also - he was also a 4+ WAR player last year and good mileage on arm. Since Watson and Eury are theoretically off limits, the only permutation that works is Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, OR Meyer, Cabrera, Eder/Salas, and Bleday/Burdick, to give them two of the next best 4 guys. Everyone else there turns into filler. Laureano/Montas is a plant your flag move for sure. Marlins don't need any other those SP (or a corner OF or Salas 3 years from now) if they preserve the majority of CC MLB level arms, get an outfielder, and keep Watson.

Anyways, this is a good idea if the package is right.

As for your numbers - I think the $$$ is off. I think the team costs a little more than that (including Soler who likely gets more in FA) so I'd tweak the above to shedding Aguilar not Cooper, still ditching Bass, and signing Tepera/Duffy versus Kenley to make things a little cheaper. That is low $80s team for sure, and I don't think those minor tweaks changes your opinion of being happy.

[Nick]

I think Kemp is a radical upgrade over Berti and dramatically injury proofs the team, but I get it he may be a luxury add. You basically get him as a thrown in by overwhelming them with other guys.

Meyer, Bleday, Fulton, and Hernandez is light. Laureano is a 4.7 WAR player per 600/PA for his career. Montas gets a centerpiece also - he was also a 4+ WAR player last year and good mileage on arm. Since Watson and Eury are theoretically off limits, the only permutation that works is Meyer, Cabrera, Sixto, OR Meyer, Cabrera, Eder/Salas, and Bleday/Burdick, to give them two of the next best 4 guys. Everyone else there turns into filler. Laureano/Montas is a plant your flag move for sure. Marlins don't need any other those SP (or a corner OF or Salas 3 years from now) if they preserve the majority of CC MLB level arms, get an outfielder, and keep Watson.

Anyways, this is a good idea if the package is right.

As for your numbers - I think the $$$ is off. I think the team costs a little more than that (including Soler who likely gets more in FA) so I'd tweak the above to shedding Aguilar not Cooper, still ditching Bass, and signing Tepera/Duffy versus Kenley to make things a little cheaper. That is low $80s team for sure, and I don't think those minor tweaks changes your opinion of being happy.

Spotrac says we're at $55.7 million right now.

I wouldn't go more than 2 years / $12 million with Soler.

[Nick]

$55.7 million

+ Montas ($5.2 million)
+ Laureano ($2.3 million)
+ Kenley ($14 million)
+ Soler (12 million)

= $33.5 million

- Hernandez ($1.5 million)
- Cooper ($3 million)
- Bass ($2.9 million)

= - $7.4 million

$33.5 - $7.4 = $26.1

$55.7 + $26.1 = $81.8

[lou]

$55.7 million

+ Montas ($5.2 million)
+ Laureano ($2.3 million)
+ Kenley ($14 million)
+ Soler (12 million)

= $33.5 million

- Hernandez ($1.5 million)
- Cooper ($3 million)
- Bass ($2.9 million)

= - $7.4 million

$33.5 - $7.4 = $26.1

$55.7 + $26.1 = $81.8

$55.7 is the problem. That is not correct.

Stallings (3-arb projection)
Aguilar (8 - arb projection)
Cooper (2.5 -arb projection)
Rojas (5)
Berti (1 - arb projection)
Anderson (5 -arb projection)
Wendle (3.5-arb projection)
Garcia (12)
Sandy (3.8)
Pablo (3.5 - arb projection)
Elisier (1.5 - arb projection)
Bass (3)
Floro (2 - arb projection)
Bleier (2.25 - arb projection)
=$56m (14 players)

Fortes/Jackson
Jazz
Sanchez
DLC
Rogers
Luzardo
Bender
Pop
Head
Okert

=$7m (10 players)

=Roughly $63m for 24 players
(and needing a CF starter and reliever)

Edit - I forget Cabrera! Just call it $64m and needing a CF.

[lou]

Let's scale Soler up in your example and call Montas, Laureano, Kenley, and Soler $36 million. So that brings payroll to $100m exactly.

So shedding Aguilar for Soler (minus $8)
Bass for Kenley (minus $3)

Gets you under $90 to roughly $89. If we're also shedding Hernandez, and let's downgrade Kenley to Tepera, we are in very low $80 million land. Not including pushing some money to next year.

So they could do Montas, Laureano, get Kemp and ditch Berti (amuse me), Soler, Tepera, AND SIGN DUFFY for $90 million. Approximately.

Only Aguilar, Bass, Hernandez, and minor leaguers sacrificed, albeit very very good minor leaguers. Four of the top 10-12 easily.

[Nick]

$55.7 is the problem. That is not correct.

Stallings (3-arb projection)
Aguilar (8 - arb projection)
Cooper (2.5 -arb projection)
Rojas (5)
Berti (1 - arb projection)
Anderson (5 -arb projection)
Wendle (3.5-arb projection)
Garcia (12)
Sandy (3.8)
Pablo (3.5 - arb projection)
Elisier (1.5 - arb projection)
Bass (3)
Floro (2 - arb projection)
Bleier (2.25 - arb projection)
=$56m (14 players)

Fortes/Jackson
Jazz
Sanchez
DLC
Rogers
Luzardo
Bender
Pop
Head
Okert

=$7m (10 players)

=Roughly $63m for 24 players
(and needing a CF starter and reliever)

Edit - I forget Cabrera! Just call it $64m and needing a CF.

Ok, I just realized that number isn't counting Pre-Arbitration players, so yeah add another $7 million or so to my numbers. Still $81.8 - $88.8 million should still be doable, it's a joke we're not around $90 million, you would think after 5 years the new ownership would try spending money and winning games as strategy see if it fits. Can't believe someone would buy a team and then just be content to spend as little money as possible and just bank on being cheap from year to year.

[Nick]

$88.8 million payroll would put us at 22nd out of 30 teams. We're not asking for the world here.

[lou]

Ok, I just realized that number isn't counting Pre-Arbitration players, so yeah add another $7 million or so to my numbers. Still $81.8 - $88.8 million should still be doable, it's a joke we're not around $90 million, you would think after 5 years the new ownership would try spending money and winning games as strategy see if it fits. Can't believe someone would buy a team and then just be content to spend as little money as possible and just bank on being cheap from year to year.

I can appreciate a rebuild, getting club controlled volume, pandemic knocks out a year, wanting to maintain prospects for future cheap labor .... but that's not now. Tampa is signing guys to monstrous contracts, as well as non-contenders like the Rockies and Rangers. The Nationals dropped $15m on 72 year old Nelson Cruz.

So yes, they are assholes if they don't build out this team with what they have.

[rmc523]

And just like that, several hypothetical targets lou and others have mentioned have either been signed (Duffy/Tepera) or are rumored to be connected to other clubs (Braves interested in Soler, teams looking at Mullins, etc).

Options are coming off the board FAST, and the Marlins continue to do NOTHING. Hope is fading, and time is running out.

The usual "we tried, but couldn't get what we wanted at our asking price" line will NOT work this year, and they don't seem to understand that.

There's still time to save this, but that time is dwindling.

[Namaste]

I suspect the Marlins will settle on familiar territory for them: being a team that rarely (if ever) sends out a big package of prospects to acquire a star. We only ship our stars for prospect packages.

[lou]

I suspect the Marlins will settle on familiar territory for them: being a team that rarely (if ever) sends out a big package of prospects to acquire a star. We only ship our stars for prospect packages.

It's not a bad strategy if you accept 1 thing. 2024 Everyone important is controlled in 2024. So if you do not care about running a business or your fans, and it's solely longterm prospect longevity and create a tidal wave, the keep everyone 2024 team may be SCARY with money to spend.

So do you wait for that and consider 24-28 the real window.... or try and jumpstart it and trade for Jimmy Butler right now and spend to make up deficiencies.

It's an obvious answer, but just saying maybe they are fine floating 2 more seasons.

[Nick]

It's not a bad strategy if you accept 1 thing. 2024 Everyone important is controlled in 2024. So if you do not care about running a business or your fans, and it's solely longterm prospect longevity and create a tidal wave, the keep everyone 2024 team may be SCARY with money to spend.

So do you wait for that and consider 24-28 the real window.... or try and jumpstart it and trade for Jimmy Butler right now and spend to make up deficiencies.

It's an obvious answer, but just saying maybe they are fine floating 2 more seasons.

I bolded the key part. From a fan perspective, you gotta at least prove that there will be money to spend at some point. We have no proof of that. When they took over it was 2021 when we were going to ready to compete, then it was 2022, now it's 2024? At some point the FO just has to be better.

[lou]

I bolded the key part. From a fan perspective, you gotta at least prove that there will be money to spend at some point. We have no proof of that. When they took over it was 2021 when we were going to ready to compete, then it was 2022, now it's 2024? At some point the FO just has to be better.

Yes - "the obvious answer" above.

It's time to trade for Jimmy Butler or sign Sergei Bobrovsky or Mario Cristobal. Plant the flag in a new era - and it doesn't even have to be Correa although that would be amazing.