2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Phillies get Schwarber, awesome.

Chapman to Toronto also. They have a real logjam and need to move a bat for an arm.

Can Gurriel play CF? I honestly don't know but he'd be a good get.

[Nick]

Chapman to Toronto also. They have a real logjam and need to move a bat for an arm.

Can Gurriel play CF? I honestly don't know but he'd be a good get.

They recently signed Kikuchi to be their 5th starter 3 years/$36 million. Maybe Floro would be of interest, but I can't think of much else.

[fish16]

im all for laureano. Take the 28 game suspension, probably reduces the cost. Laureano is a much better fit given the cost than reynolds. Then sign Soler or whoever and get jansen to shore up the back end of the bullpen. You still have the pitching depth in that case for a midseason addition or next offseason.

[lou]

im all for laureano. Take the 28 game suspension, probably reduces the cost. Laureano is a much better fit given the cost than reynolds. Then sign Soler or whoever and get jansen to shore up the back end of the bullpen. You still have the pitching depth in that case for a midseason addition or next offseason.

What do you expect payroll to be? That's probably $90 million (with a little deferred). Bass and Cooper shed $6m off that. Bass and Aguilar $10m.

Downgrading Kenley to Ryan Tepera or Dan Duffy (probably next best two pitchers, Duffy is interesting as he's also hurt, but could be perfect to mix with Cabrera/Meyer starting days) probably shaves another $4m+ so you're closer to $80m if you can do all of that - basically find takers for Bass and Cooper, sign Soler, and Tepera/Duffy instead.

Oakland is smart, it's going to be hard to get Laureano without Watson/Eury/Meyer/Cabrera/Luzardo. Which basically means this threesome - Burdick/Bleday, Eder/Salas/Sixto/someone else they like and bet on upside, and a really really good third player, like Lewis/Fulton/Mack.

I'd try and get Tony Kemp lopped into the deal also, and now you're cooking. Maybe Burdick/Bleday, Salas/Eder/Sixto, Lewis, AND Fulton gets that done in a 4-2. Throw in Harrison as a flyer and one of Fortes/Jackson/Henry also. If you can get away preserving Watson/Eury/Meyer/Cabrera and get both of them, it's going to be hard to lose that trade right????

This is $78m(?) without Cooper and Bass. I'd have to rethink the numbers but that's close. Lower if you keep Cooper over Aguilar.

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Aguilar
Jazz
Rojas, Wendle
Anderson
Sanchez, Kemp
Laureano
Garcia, DLC (or Berti)
Soler
(I think you can move Wendle and Kemp around the IF to get everything backed up. Anderson can play 1B for sure, Wendle/Jazz SS, and Wendle/Kemp 2B)

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Hernandez, Luzardo
Floro, Bender, Cabrera, Pop, Head, Yacobonis
Bleier, Okert

DL - Sixto
AAA - Meyer, Bleday/Burdick, Lewin, Neidert, Garrett, Poteet, Holloway, etc.

Why not sign Tepera AND Duffy to that? You're under $90m probably (maybe a little deferred), and it's not like keeping Yacobonis or moving Head/Pop to Oakland in that deal above changes much here to clear 2 spots for them.

...... I like this team? Until Laureano comes back CF is going to be a circus, but 28 games?

[lou]

You can sell me really quick that's a 20+ WAR position core (would be middle of the pack) and a 18+ WAR pitching core (7-10 overall range).

And that's without Jazz, Sanchez, Garcia (statcast breakout), Soler (2019/post-2021 power), Luzardo, Cabrera, Sixto, Meyer, and Bleday/Burdick breakouts. Two of them going all "Rogers/Pablo" and this is a 40+ WAR squad at under $90m (Atlanta didn't get that high last year - get in and get hot!).

And all major ammo for trade deadline.

And then we can bitch why they aren't at $115m with Correa on top of this, Aguilar DFA'd, and Anderson moved to 1B to have the best defensive IF in baseball.


I'll wait patiently to complain about Joc Pederson here, but I am warming to Laureno and ESPECIALLY if Kemp is thrown in.

[fish16]

the more i think of it, and especially given the a's rebuild right now and given their other moves, the willingness to take more lower minors guys, I'm ready to go all in for Laureano and Montas/Maneaa. That's a combo that would cost less than reynolds and I think they would be willing to take guys like salas and lewis and dax fulton instead of guys closer to the big leagues.

Meyer, Fulton, Salas, and maybe another gut like Nasim Nunez or similar young minors guy for those 2? Maybe throw in elieser. Getting montas/Manaea would relieve some of the pressure and give us a proven, really good veteran who can eat innings and take off the pressure of the young guys if they arent ready. then sign Soler and Jansen. Montas has 2 years of team control, Manaea is gonna be a free agent after the year. That's a significantly improved team, although its gonna suck waiting a month for Laureano. That would be us adding Laureano, Soler, Garcia, and Wendle, while also hopefully getting BA back for a full year, plus stallings is an improvement on Alfaro

C-Stallings
1b- Lewin/Aguilar
2b- Jazz
3b- Rojas
LF- Sanchez
CF-Laureano
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler and Cooper
SP- Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Montas/Manaea, then the 5th spot can go down to Luzardo, Cabrera, sixto whenever he is ready midseason, plus you have neidert who apparently can all of a sudden throw 2-3 mph faster which might be a game changer for him.

Then in the bullpen you have Jansen, Bass, Bender, Bleier, Floro, and young guys.

Maybe too much money, but that's a playoff team with that pitching IMO, plus you're not clearing out the best of the farm given we would still have Cabrera, Watson, Bleday, Burdick, etc.

That should absolutely be the move. That's a significantly improved roster if the ownership is willing to pay the price.

[fish16]

What do you expect payroll to be? That's probably $90 million (with a little deferred). Bass and Cooper shed $6m off that. Bass and Aguilar $10m.

Downgrading Kenley to Ryan Tepera or Dan Duffy (probably next best two pitchers, Duffy is interesting as he's also hurt, but could be perfect to mix with Cabrera/Meyer starting days) probably shaves another $4m+ so you're closer to $80m if you can do all of that - basically find takers for Bass and Cooper, sign Soler, and Tepera/Duffy instead.

Oakland is smart, it's going to be hard to get Laureano without Watson/Eury/Meyer/Cabrera/Luzardo. Which basically means this threesome - Burdick/Bleday, Eder/Salas/Sixto/someone else they like and bet on upside, and a really really good third player, like Lewis/Fulton/Mack.

I'd try and get Tony Kemp lopped into the deal also, and now you're cooking. Maybe Burdick/Bleday, Salas/Eder/Sixto, Lewis, AND Fulton gets that done in a 4-2. Throw in Harrison as a flyer and one of Fortes/Jackson/Henry also. If you can get away preserving Watson/Eury/Meyer/Cabrera and get both of them, it's going to be hard to lose that trade right????

This is $78m(?) without Cooper and Bass. I'd have to rethink the numbers but that's close. Lower if you keep Cooper over Aguilar.

Stallings, Fortes/Jackson
Aguilar
Jazz
Rojas, Wendle
Anderson
Sanchez, Kemp
Laureano
Garcia, DLC (or Berti)
Soler
(I think you can move Wendle and Kemp around the IF to get everything backed up. Anderson can play 1B for sure, Wendle/Jazz SS, and Wendle/Kemp 2B)

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Hernandez, Luzardo
Floro, Bender, Cabrera, Pop, Head, Yacobonis
Bleier, Okert

DL - Sixto
AAA - Meyer, Bleday/Burdick, Lewin, Neidert, Garrett, Poteet, Holloway, etc.

Why not sign Tepera AND Duffy to that? You're under $90m probably (maybe a little deferred), and it's not like keeping Yacobonis or moving Head/Pop to Oakland in that deal above changes much here to clear 2 spots for them.

...... I like this team? Until Laureano comes back CF is going to be a circus, but 28 games?

If they do the moves I want, you can shed Aguilar and Bass easily and clear 14 million or so. Aguilar wouldn't be needed with the additions we have, though I love what he brings to the team. Soler for 15-20 million, Jansen is probably 15 million but not a ton of years, Laureano is 2.5 estimated, Manaea is 10 and Montas is 5 with an extra year of team control.

Id be willing to give up a good batch of prospects for that. Moreso than id be willing to give up for just reynolds. Meyer would likely be the headliner or any kind of deal like that and id be fine with that. Then find what works for Oakland in the lower minors. Montas and Laureano for Meyer, Fulton, Salas, Lewis, and Nunez? Manaea has a year less of team control than montas so maybe given our depth we take manaea for the year and just let him walk after the year with our pitching depth and pay less in prospects as part of that kind of a trade.

A rotation if healthy of Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Manaea/Montas, and then Cabrera/Luizardo is pretty fucking good. Im super high on Cabrera and think he will have a similar experience as Rogers last year where his struggles to end last year will help him out tremendously this year with an offseason of work after having experience with big league hitters to end last year.

[lou]

the more i think of it, and especially given the a's rebuild right now and given their other moves, the willingness to take more lower minors guys, I'm ready to go all in for Laureano and Montas/Maneaa. That's a combo that would cost less than reynolds and I think they would be willing to take guys like salas and lewis and dax fulton instead of guys closer to the big leagues.

Meyer, Fulton, Salas, and maybe another gut like Nasim Nunez or similar young minors guy for those 2? Maybe throw in elieser. Getting montas/Manaea would relieve some of the pressure and give us a proven, really good veteran who can eat innings and take off the pressure of the young guys if they arent ready. then sign Soler and Jansen. Montas has 2 years of team control, Manaea is gonna be a free agent after the year. That's a significantly improved team, although its gonna suck waiting a month for Laureano. That would be us adding Laureano, Soler, Garcia, and Wendle, while also hopefully getting BA back for a full year, plus stallings is an improvement on Alfaro

C-Stallings
1b- Lewin/Aguilar
2b- Jazz
3b- Rojas
LF- Sanchez
CF-Laureano
RF- Garcia
DH- Soler and Cooper
SP- Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Montas/Manaea, then the 5th spot can go down to Luzardo, Cabrera, sixto whenever he is ready midseason, plus you have neidert who apparently can all of a sudden throw 2-3 mph faster which might be a game changer for him.

Then in the bullpen you have Jansen, Bass, Bender, Bleier, Floro, and young guys.

Maybe too much money, but that's a playoff team with that pitching IMO, plus you're not clearing out the best of the farm given we would still have Cabrera, Watson, Bleday, Burdick, etc.

That should absolutely be the move. That's a significantly improved roster if the ownership is willing to pay the price.

Just sign Duffy - you don't need SP from Oakland.

Get Kemp. Need bats. He can play all over and has 2 years of control.

[fish16]

Just sign Duffy - you don't need SP from Oakland.

Get Kemp. Need bats. He can play all over and has 2 years of control.

Duffy is consistently injured, would probably cost more than Montas next year, and isn't close to as good of a pitcher as him. Obviously you have to give up prospects as part of a deal for montas but montas is the perfect veteran innings eater with high upside to add to the rotation to stabilize it and allow you to not have to rely so intently on the prospects not having any struggles or injury issues.

Big if, but if sixto gets healthy by mid year, a rotation of Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Montas, and Sixto is filthy, and you've improved the offense enough to be passable to allow the pitching to carry you. Jansen isn't even necessary in that case if the money is pushing it. There are a bunch of other relievers you can add for less than that if the money gets to close to the budget.

To me, Laureano and Montas/Manaea raises the floor and ceiling for this team more than a deal for just reynolds, plus the asking price for Reynolds is ridiculous.

[fish16]

Do we theoretically have SP as a strength? Of course. but you saw last year an injury to pablo and injuries to sixto and ineffectiveness from top prospects who cant be counted on to produce right away can chew away at that strength quickly. If you get a guy like Montas/Manaea, you add a high level starter who can be counted on to produce, which helps reduce the risk of a season falling apart like last year when you get yet another injury to Pablo or Sixto. Then, if you do have a miracle and get full years from all your guys you not only have an absolutely filthy rotation, but you can then slide some of that depth to the bullpen for the year and strengthen your bullpen from within without spending in free agency. To me its a no brainer provided the cost is not astronomical. that just moves the needle a lot more than reynolds alone.

[lou]

Duffy is consistently injured, would probably cost more than Montas next year, and isn't close to as good of a pitcher as him. Obviously you have to give up prospects as part of a deal for montas but montas is the perfect veteran innings eater with high upside to add to the rotation to stabilize it and allow you to not have to rely so intently on the prospects not having any struggles or injury issues.

Big if, but if sixto gets healthy by mid year, a rotation of Sandy, Pablo, Rogers, Montas, and Sixto is filthy, and you've improved the offense enough to be passable to allow the pitching to carry you. Jansen isn't even necessary in that case if the money is pushing it. There are a bunch of other relievers you can add for less than that if the money gets to close to the budget.

To me, Laureano and Montas/Manaea raises the floor and ceiling for this team more than a deal for just reynolds, plus the asking price for Reynolds is ridiculous.

Montas costs two of Watson/Eury/Meyer/Cabrera and you're kidding yourself otherwise. I think Montas/Laureano costs more than Reynolds, and they are more expensive and more volatile than Reynolds hit tool. Arguably, that still may make sense if you get Laureano and Kemp also - what an epic across the board upgrade and cumulative 7 years of club control for reasonable prices - but it's going to take two of the big 4, and two of the next best 10. Either are expensive acquisitions.

But Laureano (suspension) and super utility Kemp? Maybe Oakland would go for Burdick/Bleday and Eder/Salas with strong 3rd/4th guys versus a true centerpiece. That's the thing here - can they improve and keep those core 4 prospects?

Also, Montas had an amazing 4.1 WAR last year in 187 IP.

Duffy was 1.6 WAR in 61 innings (that scales to 4.9 WAR over 187 IP). Add in Duffy's 2020 and it's 2.2 WAR in 117 IP (that scales to 3.5 WAR over 187 IP). Duffy is no slouch. He could really be awesome in bursts if he can get behind the idea of a 100+ IP workload over 35+ games. For where he is in his career, it makes a lot of sense. And for the Marlins - a lefty which is needed. Duffy should be good to go in June.... which means July is adding Duffy, Sixto, and Meyer if the stars align. That could be epic. Also, if we're anticipating Duffy throwing those innings, he's also doing it over 4 months and not 6 so he'll have gas at the end of the year.

Basically, if Kenley is $13/14 and that's who we want - sign me up for Tepera and Duffy at the same price. I'll take the risk with 2 arms versus 1. Kenley isn't some young guy, he's 34 so he isn't without risk. I can't imagine them spending 1/7th the payroll on 1 reliever but hey who knows?

[lou]

Do we theoretically have SP as a strength? Of course. but you saw last year an injury to pablo and injuries to sixto and ineffectiveness from top prospects who cant be counted on to produce right away can chew away at that strength quickly. If you get a guy like Montas/Manaea, you add a high level starter who can be counted on to produce, which helps reduce the risk of a season falling apart like last year when you get yet another injury to Pablo or Sixto. Then, if you do have a miracle and get full years from all your guys you not only have an absolutely filthy rotation, but you can then slide some of that depth to the bullpen for the year and strengthen your bullpen from within without spending in free agency. To me its a no brainer provided the cost is not astronomical. that just moves the needle a lot more than reynolds alone.

Yes.

Sandy, Rogers, and Pablo is a top 5 1-2-3, and Luzardo, Hernandez, Cabrera, and Meyer is insane 4-7 all with major upside. Chances are 1 breaks out (Luzardo was really good last 6-7 starts). Plus Sixto. And Neidert, Poteet, and Garrett are not jerks and could easily turn into 4/5s.

They need a SP if they move Pablo or Hernandez in a trade. That's it.

[Nick]

Starting Pitching is a distant 4th in terms of needs for this club.

1. Everyday CF
2. Power Bat
3. Closer
4. Innings Eating SP (If Pablo is dealt you need something more along the lines of a solid 4/5 SP instead of just innings eater)

[fish16]

Yes.

Sandy, Rogers, and Pablo is a top 5 1-2-3, and Luzardo, Hernandez, Cabrera, and Meyer is insane 4-7 all with major upside. Chances are 1 breaks out (Luzardo was really good last 6-7 starts). Plus Sixto. And Neidert, Poteet, and Garrett are not jerks and could easily turn into 4/5s.

They need a SP if they move Pablo or Hernandez in a trade. That's it.

Pablo in no way shape or form can be counted on to remain healthy for an entire year. He's had a shoulder injury cut I believe every single full season he's had with us short. the guy has never pitched more than 111 innings in a year and I'm not sure how you can just act like that's not a huge possibility yet again this year.

all of a sudden, he goes down, sixto is out for at least half the year, and you have a rotation of Sandy, Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, Hernandez, Meyer eventually. that is a great way for your season to go down the tubes fast if they arent ready or arent as good as advertised. It's the exact thing that happened last year with sixto going down. all of a sudden your strength turns into a huge weakness 40% of games because the prospects weren't ready and sixto got injured.

bite the bullet, trade some of the lower level depth to add montas or Manaea to the deal for the good cheap CF like Laureano, create a super rotation if everything goes perfectly and still have a really good rotation with high upside if pablo goes down yet again. They have the prospect depth to get it done.

Right now, you're an injury of Pablo away from the season going to shit. As history has shown, that is more likely than not. To me he's a shoulder surgery eventually waiting to happen given that he's now had I believe 3 different seasons cut short or impeded by the same shoulder injury. It's why he'd be the one guy I trade if I have the choice. Pay the prospect cost to give yourself protection in case a guy who has proven to be injury prone gets injured yet again. It's ok to build on a strength. Plus you can keep their innings lower on Cabrera and hell, Elieser is ideally a really quality muti inning reliever so if he's the guy who gets pushed down a role to the bullpen, so be it. Luzardo also didn't really show much of anything last year to give you the belief that he will all of a sudden re-find the groove he had his first big league year.

Without adding another SP, you are putting wayyyyy to many eggs in the Luzardo, Cabrera, Elieser basket and while I love cabrera, that's not a basket that I would rest the hopes of my season on if I can help it.

[Maddawg]

Sums up the Marlins pretty much.....

(lyrics from Yellow Brick Road by Sir Elton John)

Maybe you'll get a replacement
There's plenty like me to be found
Mongrels who ain't got a penny
Sniffing for tidbits like you
On the ground, ah, ah
So goodbye yellow brick road
Where the dogs of society howl