2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[emkayseven]

Well, see y’all in a few months.

[Maddawg]

Looks like they did almost nothing big enough to really be considered a contender next year, and I'm afraid they never will as long as these blood-sucking leeches are able to profit without being forced to at least try to compete.

70-74 wins max next year, the 5th year of the never-ending rebuild

[emkayseven]

That’s currently constructed, yes. All indications pointing towards more coming, though.

[Nick]

At this point, if we're talking strictly free agency I think it'd take them signing Jansen and Bryant for me to be happy, and that probably ain't gonna happen. There are things they could do in trades that could sway me, but we'll see.

[lou]

Looks like they did almost nothing big enough to really be considered a contender next year, and I'm afraid they never will as long as these blood-sucking leeches are able to profit without being forced to at least try to compete.

70-74 wins max next year, the 5th year of the never-ending rebuild

They won 67 last year. Importantly, they had an expected W/L of 71-91 (they were 30-36 in 1 run/extras). The below is very very rough so no one yell at me.


C - 2.5+ wins, getting rid of Leon, Wallach, and upgrading Alfaro for Stallings is a big improvement

1B - No change, they got 2.3 WAR out of Aguilar, Cooper, and Lewin, and that seems fair

2B - 3+ wins, Panik and Isan are listed as 2B on fangraphs, so they tanked the stats. Jazz progression and Wendle backup is a huge change

SS - No change - Rojas/Wendle do the same

3B - 1.5+ wins - Anderson being healthy, and Wendle being a competent backup is jump

LF - 1.5+ wins - I'm considering this Sanchez improvement, and DLC/others replacing Dickerson/Brinson

CF - -4 wins - As it stands right now, I'm expecting worse than replacement level slop of Harrison/Berti versus Marte/Sierra getting the lions share last year

RF - +1 win - I'm considering Avisail an upgrade on Duvall/DLC/all the other fleeting Miller/Harrison OF we saw

Adding 5+ wins to their expected W/L is 76 wins. I think you have to expect improvement to the mean with the expected W/L.

So pitching

SP - 5+ wins - They had 9.4 WAR last year - Detweiler, Holloway, Ness, Neidert, and Castano really sucked in around 70 innings here (-1.8 innings), and Cabrera wasn't great in his 26 innings (-6.). I think that slop is going away. Rogers/Pablo threw 238 innings, so you can easily see another 100+ there as it stands today. That's big. Sandy is going to Sandy so no changes there. So, the only contribution leaving is Thompson (1.1 WAR), but whatever Luzardo, Sixto, Cabrera, Hernandez, and Meyer bring next year is going to make/break the staff. I'm buying those guys are a big net positive, but I think we can call those 5 guys "5" WAR as someone is going to work out, and the others are likely going to be much better than the back end slop of years past. I think this is going to take a large step forward. I believe in the arms

RP - -1 win - Marlins bullpen was very good last year. They got 5 WAR. They'll probably not get as good performances out of Floro, Bleier, and Bender even if those guys are pretty good, and Bass is likely the only one to show big improvement. Who knows what Pop/Head/Okert/SP rejects are going to do. I think this is fair to step it back a little, but that's still a better unit in baseball. They could really use a big time lefty reliever IMO, and maybe even a luxury right hander would be helpful depending on what SP are inevitably traded.

Add 4 wins - 80.

So this is 80 if everyone is healthy and no breakouts. I think 80 is fair, and each "Rogers" level breakout from a Jazz/Sanchez/Cabrera/Avisail/etc. would add 1-2 wins. So they'd need quite a few to "contend."

The big problem here is, there is no margin of error at all, which is why they need 2 more bats, and likely an arm (even if just a lefty reliever). That should set themselves up to add another 4-5 wins and overall injury proof the team, and then we wait to see if those "Rogers breakouts" happen which moves the team to a contender. I think waiting till June to trade for something needed is fine if they get those 2 bats and some sort of arm now. Compounding that though, is if Pablo is traded, this is scaling back 3+ wins which will be very much needed, so you need to make that production up somewhere so maybe another person is also needed.

They have work to do, but I think your estimation is low. The range to me right now is probably 76-84 wins, and it's a larger volatile range based on youth and not knowing what's coming. Practically, this is likely a mid/high 70s win team right now as injuries and the lack of Jazz/Sanchez/Sixto churning out a 4+ WAR season will doom them.


If they sign Schwarber to upgrade Cooper (1+), trade for Marsh (2+) with Pablo (-3) and Cooper, sign another 1 year veteran platoon CF/Bench guy to help (1+), bring in a good lefty reliever (+.5), and sign a veteran # 4 innings eater (1+), that makes a lot of sense to me and we're talking a "safe" .500ish team that is deep and injury proofed, and we're hoping for some youth breakouts. This is where I think they are headed. Getting to a team that projects to be .500, and then hope Jazz and Sanchez are 3+ WAR guys, Luzardo, Sixto, and Cabrera pump out 7+ WAR combined, Avisail has a good year and he's 3.5+ WAR, and then all of a sudden you are talking high 80s wins.

We'll see. Check back in February at this rate.

[lou]

At this point, if we're talking strictly free agency I think it'd take them signing Jansen and Bryant for me to be happy, and that probably ain't gonna happen. There are things they could do in trades that could sway me, but we'll see.

Ignoring money and reality, if they actually want to contend:

Sign Bryant
Trade Anderson for play-now lefty arms
Sign Kenley
Sign Schwarber
Trade Pablo, Bass, and Cooper for Marsh/prospects
Sign an innings eater, cheap


Stallings, Fortes
Aguilar, Schwarber
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Bryant, Wendle
Sanchez, DLC
Marsh
Garcia

Sandy, Rogers, "Innings Eater", Luzardo, Cabrera/Sixto
Kenley, Floro, Bender, Elisier, Pop/Head
"Guy for Anderson", Bleier, Okert


That's a contender for sure, and it wouldn't be a top 15 payroll. Maybe not even top 20.

[fish16]

Looks like they did almost nothing big enough to really be considered a contender next year, and I'm afraid they never will as long as these blood-sucking leeches are able to profit without being forced to at least try to compete.

70-74 wins max next year, the 5th year of the never-ending rebuild

youre totally right. probably a good time for you to find a new team and start rooting for them

[rmc523]

Ignoring money and reality, if they actually want to contend:

Sign Bryant
Trade Anderson for play-now lefty arms
Sign Kenley
Sign Schwarber
Trade Pablo, Bass, and Cooper for Marsh/prospects
Sign an innings eater, cheap


Stallings, Fortes
Aguilar, Schwarber
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Bryant, Wendle
Sanchez, DLC
Marsh
Garcia

Sandy, Rogers, "Innings Eater", Luzardo, Cabrera/Sixto
Kenley, Floro, Bender, Elisier, Pop/Head
"Guy for Anderson", Bleier, Okert


That's a contender for sure, and it wouldn't be a top 15 payroll. Maybe not even top 20.

Sign me up for this lol.

[lou]

Sign me up for this lol.

They could probably do it for $100-105m.

That is a middle of the road payroll, and probably the team rates to eyeballing it... 35-40 WAR? Then, there is breakout potential for Jazz, Sanchez, Marsh, Garcia, Luzardo, Cabrera, and Sixto (and Bleday and Meyer), as each could become major 3+ WAR players quickly.

That's a real nice team. Probably projects 8-12th best in baseball, with upside in those breaking out for more.

[sports24/7]

In Barry Jackson's latest column with Mish he said the Marlins plan was to sign Garcia AND Marte, but fell short of landing Marte. He says the plan now is to either sign or trade for one more guy who can play one of the OF spots, mentioning that they are in negotiations with one AL team, and mentioning Schwarber as one of the FA options. He also mentions playing Anderson in RF if they can't land an OF bat.

Also, apparently Garcia has wanted to be a Marlin for a while, and told Jeter that's what he wanted at a meeting in November.

[lou]

In Barry Jackson's latest column with Mish he said the Marlins plan was to sign Garcia AND Marte, but fell short of landing Marte. He says the plan now is to either sign or trade for one more guy who can play one of the OF spots, mentioning that they are in negotiations with one AL team, and mentioning Schwarber as one of the FA options. He also mentions playing Anderson in RF if they can't land an OF bat.

Also, apparently Garcia has wanted to be a Marlin for a while, and told Jeter that's what he wanted at a meeting in November.

AL team lol (meaning the Angels).

Pablo, Cooper, and Bass (salary dump) going to them for Marsh, Jeremiah Jackson, and other prospects (which they have) makes too much sense both ways. Maybe old friend Jose Quijada is coming back in the deal, he has pretty good last year and makes sense as a lefty reliever.

Schwarber then replaces Cooper, and Marlins need an innings eater, lefty reliever, and then any luxury reliever/bench upgrades. They also have pitching to still trade if needed (Elisier, etc.), and could go nuts if they open it up to Meyer/Watson/Eury.

Stallings, Fortes
Aguilar, Schwarber(DH)
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez, DLC
Marsh (with Garcia, Berti, and DLC pitching in)
Garcia (with Anderson pitching in)

Sandy, Rogers, "Innings Eater", Luzardo, Cabrera/Sixto
Floro, Bender, Pop, Head, Elisier/Sixto
Bleier, "New Lefty", Okert


I'd consider that team above a big success opening day, especially if they still have Meyer and Bleday, and most of Poteet/Neidert/Garrett/Holloway in AAA for depth arms.

[sports24/7]

AL team lol (meaning the Angels).

Pablo, Cooper, and Bass (salary dump) going to them for Marsh, Jeremiah Jackson, and other prospects (which they have) makes too much sense both ways. Maybe old friend Jose Quijada is coming back in the deal, he has pretty good last year and makes sense as a lefty reliever.

Schwarber then replaces Cooper, and Marlins need an innings eater, lefty reliever, and then any luxury reliever/bench upgrades. They also have pitching to still trade if needed (Elisier, etc.), and could go nuts if they open it up to Meyer/Watson/Eury.

Stallings, Fortes
Aguilar, Schwarber(DH)
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez, DLC
Marsh (with Garcia, Berti, and DLC pitching in)
Garcia (with Anderson pitching in)

Sandy, Rogers, "Innings Eater", Luzardo, Cabrera/Sixto
Floro, Bender, Pop, Head, Elisier/Sixto
Bleier, "New Lefty", Okert


I'd consider that team above a big success opening day, especially if they still have Meyer and Bleday, and most of Poteet/Neidert/Garrett/Holloway in AAA for depth arms.

I'd be pretty surprised if it's the Angels for Marsh, unless Mish got new information in the last day or two. A lot of the info in Barry's Marlins columns come from Mish, and remember, he said they hadn't circled back to Marsh. I would imagine it's a bigger name, honestly. Also, I know you think Marsh AND Schwarber additions are coming, but this article made it seem like it's an either or with Schwarber OR a trade for someone. Honestly, if you do get Schwarber, it would make sense to go out and trade for someone else significant considering you'll still have all of your chips to play with. But all of the reporting from the two most plugged in guys in the market says otherwise.

The article also said they don't really want to trade Pablo if they don't have to. They'd prefer to trade Hernandez, and any of the prospects that they aren't counting on helping in the next year or so.

[lou]

I'd be pretty surprised if it's the Angels for Marsh, unless Mish got new information in the last day or two. A lot of the info in Barry's Marlins columns come from Mish, and remember, he said they hadn't circled back to Marsh. I would imagine it's a bigger name, honestly. Also, I know you think Marsh AND Schwarber additions are coming, but this article made it seem like it's an either or with Schwarber OR a trade for someone. Honestly, if you do get Schwarber, it would make sense to go out and trade for someone else significant considering you'll still have all of your chips to play with. But all of the reporting from the two most plugged in guys in the market says otherwise.

The article also said they don't really want to trade Pablo if they don't have to. They'd prefer to trade Hernandez, and any of the prospects that they aren't counting on helping in the next year or so.

Difference maker available CF in the AL is very limited - Laureano? He's suspended for April, but you can deal with that?

Stallings, Fortes
Aguilar, Cooper
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez, DLC
Laureano (Garcia, DLC, Berti for April)
Garcia (with Anderson pitching in)

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo Cabrera/Sixto
Floro, Bender, Pop, Head, Elisier/Sixto
Bleier, "New Lefty", Okert

I'd take it. Price is probably right for Laureano, and you'd have ammo for a June/July trade.

[rmc523]

Interesting notes on Marte........Sounds like they were really close with Marte, and then the Mets swooped in with an above and beyond offer

Here’s what happened in the pursuit of Marte, whom the Marlins dealt to Oakland for Jesus Luzardo before the trade deadline: As of last Friday afternoon, the Marlins had made the best offer for Marte: four years and $60 million, with two other teams offering comparable contracts. The Marlins were told it would take close to $70 million to get the deal done. While the Marlins were willing to go a little higher, it ultimately didn’t matter because the Mets offered a number ($78 million over four years) that the Marlins weren’t going to match. Miami’s final offer was not within $5 million of that Mets’ offer. Before the trade deadline, the Marlins could have done an extension with Marte if they had been willing to give him a guaranteed fourth year, as the Mets did. The Marlins — before trading him to Luzardo — offered only three years with a team option for the fourth year.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/article2...#storylink=cpy

[sports24/7]

Difference maker available CF in the AL is very limited - Laureano? He's suspended for April, but you can deal with that?

Stallings, Fortes
Aguilar, Cooper
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle
Sanchez, DLC
Laureano (Garcia, DLC, Berti for April)
Garcia (with Anderson pitching in)

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo Cabrera/Sixto
Floro, Bender, Pop, Head, Elisier/Sixto
Bleier, "New Lefty", Okert

I'd take it. Price is probably right for Laureano, and you'd have ammo for a June/July trade.

I keep saying I don't think it's a CF. That's what Mish alluded to when he kept talking about them putting Garcia in CF full time. So if the deals he's heard about are for a corner guy, and he's heard about this "American League team", then that would mean this report probably isn't about a CF. Eloy Jimenez?Teoscar Hernandez? Randy Arozarena? Lourdes Gurriel? No idea, just throwing out some possible names.