2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

conforto and bryan reynolds are the targets apparently. If its a big money, 1-2 year deal for conforto, id be all over that. He's a career 124 ops+ and he just had 1 down year, he'd be a tremendous addition at this point. Id much rather have him on a 2 year deal than castellanos on a 4-5 year deal. that's a no brainer to me. Then do whatever prospect OF trade you want.

C- Stalllings
1b- Lewin/Aguilar
2b- Jazz
SS- Rojas
3b- Anderson
LF- Conforto
CF- Prospect
RF- Sanchez
DH- Avisail Garcia/Cooper

Depending on the prospect that's a pretty damn good lineup with a ceiling to be really good if sanchez and jazz take the next step. Bryan reynolds is a nice player, but for the reported asking price I wouldn't touch him. That's too much for a good, not great player. He is just 2 years younger than Conforto, a 128 OPS+ for his career, and he will cost you a shit ton in prospects when we have a lot of OF depth in the upper minors that will be making its way to the major league level in the next 2 years.

If we do make a major trade for a guy that costs a ton of prospects, i'd go as hard as possible for Jose Ramirez. That guy is a true superstar on a great contract. He's the type of guy id raid the farm system for. then you can use Anderson and maybe a pablo or other pitching prospect to fill another hole somewhere else.

5.5 WAR is great (Reynolds last year). That is a number Conforto has never approached (peak 4.4). Reynolds can also adequately handle CF for likely the next 2+ years and Conforto can definitely not. You blow the farm out for Reynolds, and sign him to a 6 year extension. Ages 27-32. It's a no brainer for a guy projecting as a 4+ WAR player for the foreseeable future. It's why I don't get the Pirates moving him, but hey they can do what they do and get 3 good players and use payroll elsewhere. Meyer, Eury, Burdick, and DLC. That may not even be the best offer for him, but I think that's a realistic give and receive.

Garcia is also a vastly better defender than Conforto so your defensive alignment is a minor quib. They should be swapped and Conforto should be limited to DH.

Basically, Conforto doesn't make sense to me here how this is presented. He'd be an upgrade to Cooper or Aguilar DH'ing. Cooper makes vastly less money and has years of control, so it's basically sign Conforto and trade/DFA Aguilar. That is how Conforto fits in to me. I can get behind that even losing Meyer/Eury/Burdick for Reynolds (which means we keep Pablo which is amazing). Garcia/Berti/Conforto(desperation) can cover CF backup spot well enough I imagine.

Stallings, Fortes
Cooper, Lewin (and Brian Anderson)
Jazz
Rojas, Berti
Anderson, Wendle (which if Cooper/Lewin can't do it, Wendle plays a lot)
Sanchez
Reynolds
Garcia
Conforto
AAA - Jackson, Isan, Devers, Bleday <---- Could probably use some AAAA veterans on MilB deals to stopgap injuries or replace Cooper, Lewin, or Berti if they are terrible. Depth is low, but I really like this roster and think it can sustain a major injury and be alright still.

That's a good team and probably $75 million.

This is where Nick says KENLEY - and I don't disagree a luxury reliever is what you spend all remaining budget on. I'm also just getting rid of Bass here, or place him at the end.

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Hernandez, Luzardo
Kenley, Bender, Floro, Cabrera, Pop, Head
Bleier, Okert
DL - Sixto
AAA - Neidert, Poteet, Braxton, Holloway < ---- Real solid call ups IMO, once some veteran MiLB guys added. Would love another lefty and kick Pop/Head to AAA but I can deal.


As for Jose Ramirez, if he goes up for sale I'd imagine every large market team goes HARD for him. Think Gabriel Moreno level trades, which the Marlins cannot match. I think Reynolds makes more sense as the Marlins pitch without a top 50 prospect (I'm removing Watson from this) is having a fantastic 2nd and 3rd player - which Eury and Burdick would be. I think Reynolds would draw big trade proposals, but nothing like Ramirez, so the quantity trade may win out.

[lou]

A 0.8 WAR is a substantial down year. I don’t want Castellanos on a 4-5 year deal either but we need Reynolds (5.5 WAR) or Ramirez (like you said) or Ketel Marte to make the playoffs. Please fuck no on Conforto.

Yes pretty much - unless that's a basic swap of the Aguilar money

[Nick]

I agree hard pass on Conforto. I get buying cheap and hoping for the rebound, but we shouldn't be in the market for guys we're hoping for a rebound, we should be in the market for guys who we know we'll be able to slot in the middle of the lineup and will produce. Our payroll is pathetic, spend the money. Show us you're in this with us (not so) new ownership.

[Namaste]

I like this statement from Sherman

https://twitter.com/marlins/status/1...168449028?s=21

[Nick]

I like this statement from Sherman

https://twitter.com/marlins/status/1...168449028?s=21

The way it is right now. Electric is not how I would describe our lineup.

[fish16]

A 0.8 WAR is a substantial down year. I don’t want Castellanos on a 4-5 year deal either but we need Reynolds (5.5 WAR) or Ramirez (like you said) or Ketel Marte to make the playoffs. Please fuck no on Conforto.

Im cool with ramirez or Ketel. I just don't think Reynolds is the slam dunk star people seem to think he is and the cost of prospects for him will be something they will regret later on. If you're talking meyer and watson you're talking about a top of the rotation guy and a guy who I think will be the next lindor and cost controlled for years when he gets to the majors. Plus it would take more to get him. Eury would be untouchable for me unless its for ramirez. Reynolds to me is just not the type of guy you give 2-3 of your top 5 prospects for considering you would add giving him a huge long term contract on top of that. Conforto to me can be counted on for a bounce back year, would cost nothing in prospects, and you wouldn't have to give him a long term contract coming off of a down year. Conforto being signed and then trading prospects for ketel or Ramirez is how I would do it. Or Conforto and then dealing an arm and a prospect for a guy like Kelenic or Marsh/Adell that would be expensive but not 3 top prospects expensive. The price for reynolds just is not close to being worth it to me.

According to FanGraphs reynolds has graded out negatively every year defensively and, granted it was a covid shortened year, but just a year ago in 2020 he was pretty awful.

[fish16]

I agree hard pass on Conforto. I get buying cheap and hoping for the rebound, but we shouldn't be in the market for guys we're hoping for a rebound, we should be in the market for guys who we know we'll be able to slot in the middle of the lineup and will produce. Our payroll is pathetic, spend the money. Show us you're in this with us (not so) new ownership.

Conforto wouldn't be the main move, it would be a secondary move to me. Sign him to a 1-2 year deal at a relative discount due to the down year, then trade for a big piece like Ramirez or Ketel Marte.

[sports24/7]

Conforto would have made sense instead of Garcia as a move in addition to a big trade. I don't understand going after him now. You need a legitimate impact bat, and that's not him. I know Frisaro said Reynolds and Conforto, but has someone else said that? Because I definitely don't trust Frisaro.

[Namaste]

Just bet $30.31 to win $1000.23 on Marlins Win NLCS and
$22 to win $1,540 on Marlins World Series before the odds plummet when Kim Ng signs Reynolds, Zach G and Jansen

[lou]

Im cool with ramirez or Ketel. I just don't think Reynolds is the slam dunk star people seem to think he is and the cost of prospects for him will be something they will regret later on. If you're talking meyer and watson you're talking about a top of the rotation guy and a guy who I think will be the next lindor and cost controlled for years when he gets to the majors. Plus it would take more to get him. Eury would be untouchable for me unless its for ramirez. Reynolds to me is just not the type of guy you give 2-3 of your top 5 prospects for considering you would add giving him a huge long term contract on top of that. Conforto to me can be counted on for a bounce back year, would cost nothing in prospects, and you wouldn't have to give him a long term contract coming off of a down year. Conforto being signed and then trading prospects for ketel or Ramirez is how I would do it. Or Conforto and then dealing an arm and a prospect for a guy like Kelenic or Marsh/Adell that would be expensive but not 3 top prospects expensive. The price for reynolds just is not close to being worth it to me.

According to FanGraphs reynolds has graded out negatively every year defensively and, granted it was a covid shortened year, but just a year ago in 2020 he was pretty awful.

It's fine if you don't value Reynolds, I can easily buy going to Brandon Marsh/signing pitcher route is smarter, BUT Reynolds is 4 years from free agency. He is in the Sandy area of extensions, maybe a little more with the peak year and bats are safer. Arguing a huge long term deal isn't a thing. They could probably get him for 6/$75 or 7/$100. He'd make double that open market. It's important to not think this is a $200m contract here. It's not.

Also, Reynolds defense historically:

2019 - Very very bad LF (larger sample size), pretty good RF (small/medium sample size), slightly below average CF (small sample size) - Overall very bad because of LF time. Likely an adjustment to MLB
2020 - Good(!) in LF (medium sample size), very good CF (sadly, small sample size), no RF. time - Overall average/neutral. He was solid here.
2021 - Basically neutral in LF, slightly below average (small sample size), fairly below average in CF (large sample size) - Overall notably below average but not "very bad"

So pretty much, he's going to be a below average CF for 2 years, but his hit tool radically overcomes it (5.5 WAR!), and then move to LF and be pretty neutral defensively probably. This is where we don't complain for 2 years about CF defense getting a guy who hits like a maniac, and deal with a Reynolds/Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick/Garcia hypothetical corner logjam in 2024. Likely Burdick/Bleday is in the Reynolds deal, so this isn't so huge a deal as your DH is likely in there.

This goes back to what we all agree on - WTF was Garcia signed on a pure positional level even if he should be pretty solid with some bat upside? Shouldn't CF have been figured out first, then, trickle down the next important items from there? If Reynolds does turn into an adequate defensive CF for 3-4 years this is all moot, but I see the shift to LF coming. I'd still trade Meyer/Eury for him with one of Bleday/Burdick. Keeping Pablo is huge so who cares if Meyer and Eury go if you get a 4+ WAR CF/LF for years.

[Lee Stone]

The way it is right now. Electric is not how I would describe our lineup.

AAA battery electric

[fish16]

the avisail garcia signing remains absolutely stupid given the reported moves they are considering making. Not so much signing him at all, but the length. I said it the second it happened, but the 4 years for him is just inexcusable mismanagement given what they are trying to do and what they have in the upper minors. anything more than 2 years was a complete waste.

[fish16]

rodon getting 2 years 22 million a year is pretty ridiculous. He was good last year but my god some of these teams have stupid money to spend. Im still not even sure how the giants were so good last year with such an old team.

[Maddawg]

I just don't think Reynolds is the slam dunk star people seem to think he is

Of course, this is the same guy that thought Brinson was a can't miss superstar

[Nick]

Nothing says the season is back on like Maddawg trying to start a fight with fish16.