September 2019 Game Thread

[Nick]

If Castro's Club Option was about half of what it is, I'd think about it.

[tjfla]

So Castro is awesome and they have an (expensive) team option next year.

It’s doubtful they pick it up, but he’s kind of perfect to keep for next year given Isan isn’t established and Anderson can play in the OF a bit. Maybe you pick it up and aim to really move him at the deadline. If he hits like this now, he’s a star.

This one is interesting. They have plenty of payroll. If they did pick him up, and keep Rojas, Urena, and Conley, this costs around $55 million:

Alfaro, Wallach
Cooper, ____
Isan, Berti
Rojas
Castro
Ramirez, _____
Brinson, Sierra
Anderson

Pablo, Caleb, Sandy, Urena, Hernandez
Stanek, Steckenrider, Brice, Brigham, Camp Battle/TBD
Garcia, Conley, Quijada/TBD

Rendon and Cole are pipe dreams, but maybe they’d sign Castellanos, bring back Walker on a cheap deal, and take a flyer on a 1 year SP (Alex Wood?) while we wait for Sixto, Neidert, Guzman, Lewin, Monte, and Sanchez mid season.

That’s not a bad looking team and it’s under $80 million. Just saying.

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To note, CF looks real bad but nothing to do there

Doubt they pick up the option BUT some FO talk that they might be interested in bringing him back on a cheaper contract at 2/3 years. This is a BIG IF but they are talking about it

Rendon/Cole type OR trade is 1st option and Castellanos seems to be next option IF price is right. Realistic looks like Castellanos/vet SP on 1 or 2 year deal(Kinda like what Minnesota/KC did this year) and vet deals for bat/RP. Lots of OPTIONS and Cleveland/Boston guys seem to be targets

They wanna spend some cash but don't wanna block the young guys.

[fish16]

Castellanos has grown on me since going to the cubs but the thing that scares me about him is that he seems like a guy who will come here and be severely negatively impacted by the ballpark and surrounding lineup and all of a sudden become just a 20 hr guy with around an .800 ops as opposed to 30 hr and .900 ops and you can find an .800 ops guy much easier without investing significant money

[lou]

Doubt they pick up the option BUT some FO talk that they might be interested in bringing him back on a cheaper contract at 2/3 years. This is a BIG IF but they are talking about it

Rendon/Cole type OR trade is 1st option and Castellanos seems to be next option IF price is right. Realistic looks like Castellanos/vet SP on 1 or 2 year deal(Kinda like what Minnesota/KC did this year) and vet deals for bat/RP. Lots of OPTIONS and Cleveland/Boston guys seem to be targets

They wanna spend some cash but don't wanna block the young guys.

I agree, but since the beginning of July, Castro has 2 WAR and that's a Bellinger/Acuna pace. Basically, he's been one of the best players in baseball. Really. Yea it's a SSS, but that's still 250 PA. This sums it up and it's really eye opening - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...the-abyss.html

I'm not sure what to make of it. If he just became a launch angle success story, you pick him up. We'll see what he does next 3 weeks. No one's getting blocked by Castro either way. This is surprisingly a decision now versus the dread of June.

[lou]

I love this one - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/these-th...nky-fastballs/

TL;DR - Fangraphs like Caleb, Garcia, and gasp, Conley, based on pitch movement. They are three of the top four lefties in baseball this year.... and Chris Sale is the 4th.

I still want a Quijada upgrade for the bullpen. Conley is a 100% keep.

[Nick]

I agree, but since the beginning of July, Castro has 2 WAR and that's a Bellinger/Acuna pace. Basically, he's been one of the best players in baseball. Really. Yea it's a SSS, but that's still 250 PA. This sums it up and it's really eye opening - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...the-abyss.html

I'm not sure what to make of it. If he just became a launch angle success story, you pick him up. We'll see what he does next 3 weeks. No one's getting blocked by Castro either way. This is surprisingly a decision now versus the dread of June.

What about regression to the mean? As of right now his numbers overall this year look very similar to what he's done over his career.

[tjfla]

Lots of interest is Caleb/Conley/Brice/Urena this offseason. All 4 were talked about in trades and Miami thought they had Conley dealt

[tjfla]

I know that Sierra is not a burner but EVERY ML team would love to have him as 25th/26th guy.

TB just called up this guy to pinch run and play OF defense

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...tting/2019/ALL

[lou]

What about regression to the mean? As of right now his numbers overall this year look very similar to what he's done over his career.

This might be a special bender he is on right now. Also, his BABIP is very low still and his K rate is down (walks down too). I’m very intrigued by this new profile. If this is a SSS blip, good for Castro. If this is a new batting profile with real longterm adjustments (see article), this might be the Castro everyone expected when he was 23.

I’m just saying. If Castro is this new hitter, that option gets real interesting.

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I know that Sierra is not a burner but EVERY ML team would love to have him as 25th/26th guy.

TB just called up this guy to pinch run and play OF defense

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...tting/2019/ALL

He looks “better” in these games. He’s a hard keep for me and I might even go as far to say he is the CF front runner for next season.

Actually yes, he is the front runner. Sorry Brinson.

[tjfla]

This might be a special bender he is on right now. Also, his BABIP is very low still and his K rate is down (walks down too). I’m very intrigued by this new profile. If this is a SSS blip, good for Castro. If this is a new batting profile with real longterm adjustments (see article), this might be the Castro everyone expected when he was 23.

I’m just saying. If Castro is this new hitter, that option gets real interesting.

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He looks “better” in these games. He’s a hard keep for me and I might even go as far to say he is the CF front runner for next season.

Actually yes, he is the front runner. Sorry Brinson.

100% he is on the roster especially since u 26th guy now. I just mentioned it because ML teams are dying to get guys like him-TB signed the guy out of the Mexican League last month. Sierra doesn't even need to hit-just run in 7th/8th and then play defense

Option won't happen but could see 2/20 or 3/30 deal especially if he cool with playing 2B/SS/3B. Sign Castro let him play all 3 spots as UT,BA plays RF,3B,1B and Berti is Super UT

Brinson really just needs to be dealt for another "project" guy

[Nick]

I really enjoy listening to Glenn Geffner on the radio broadcast. This MF'er always comes up with some great stat to put into perspective just how horrible we've been this year. This is how he ended the last inning. "That ends the inning, Smith puts his glove up to his mouth, and says a bad word...very loud." I'm getting Uecker vibes from Major League.

[fish16]

I really enjoy listening to Glenn Geffner on the radio broadcast. This MF'er always comes up with some great stat to put into perspective just how horrible we've been this year. This is how he ended the last inning. "That ends the inning, Smith puts his glove up to his mouth, and says a bad word...very loud." I'm getting Uecker vibes from Major League.

Ya the end of this year feels like major league. Just limping to the finish line. Season needs to end already, hopefully with us getting the third pick and even the 2nd at this point

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Brinson has also been even worse the last month than he was the last two years. Just cut ties and move on for next year. He just can’t put it together for whatever reason and neither side is benefitting from continuing to throw him out there

[lou]

Fangraphs really hating on the Marlins - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-this-...miami-marlins/

[fauowls44]

Fangraphs really hating on the Marlins - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-this-...miami-marlins/

Nobody is going to believe that the Marlins are going to do things the right way until they do. That's why I think it is important for the franchise to go and spend some money on free agents this winter. They need to sign at least one impact bat (Castellanos, Puig, etc.) that can be a building block to when the team is competitive. I would also look to get Anderson locked up on a good long term deal.

You can't go into next year with the view that it's yet another throw away season. I'm all for tanking right now, but at some point you need to actually start improving the MLB roster. I think that has to start next season. It is very likely that only Chen will be on the books next year making significant money. They have plenty of room to add to the payroll and the TV deal will finally be up. It's time to start acting like the MLB roster matters again.

[lou]

Nobody is going to believe that the Marlins are going to do things the right way until they do. That's why I think it is important for the franchise to go and spend some money on free agents this winter. They need to sign at least one impact bat (Castellanos, Puig, etc.) that can be a building block to when the team is competitive. I would also look to get Anderson locked up on a good long term deal.

You can't go into next year with the view that it's yet another throw away season. I'm all for tanking right now, but at some point you need to actually start improving the MLB roster. I think that has to start next season. It is very likely that only Chen will be on the books next year making significant money. They have plenty of room to add to the payroll and the TV deal will finally be up. It's time to start acting like the MLB roster matters again.

Exactly. And they should look at the Dolphins if they think (completely) tanking another year is going to be productive.

Payroll is going to be approx. $42 million next year for a 26 man roster, including Chen being cut and Castro bought out.

Alfaro, Wallach
Cooper, ____
Isan, Berti
Rojas
Anderson
Ramirez, _____
Brinson, Sierra
_____
Pablo, Caleb, Alcantara, Urena, Elisier/Yamamoto
Stanek, Steckenrider, Brice, Brigham, ______
Garcia, Conley, Quijada
Dead Money - Chen, Castro

Chen, Urena, Rojas, Conley, and Castro buyout are basically $30 million of this, and the rest (19 players) cumulatively make $12 million. 22 players on an active 26 man roster making $42 million, and we all know the last reliever and likely backup 1B and LF are going to cost cumulatively $3-4 million and be controlled players or super cheap Neil Walkers.

I really like the idea of:

-At least trying for Rendon or Cole, but more than likely...
-signing a legitimate veteran SP (Wheeler?) for 3 years. This helps now and theoretically opens up another Gallen trade in a year if everyone works out.
-a good bat (Castellanos?) for 4 years. You can even still talk me into Didi here and talk about moving Jazz to 3B, but that's a big backup plan. Or you could even just keep Castro (he's been ridiculously good for 2 months)
-signing a good OF backup who can dabble in CF if Brinson/Sierra completely fail
-opportunistically signing a Neil Walker and Sergio Romo to fill out bench and bullpen. Maybe a backup catcher upgrade if Wallach is still hurt
-extending Anderson for 5+ years with an option
-extending Rojas for 2 years (good faith 1 year extension, he's earned a reward and will look good to the players)

That's a solid looking team with presumably Lewin, Monte, Sixto, Neidert, and Guzman, at minimum, coming up mid-season, and maybe Sanchez and Jazz force the issue. There is some real hope once the minor league reinforcements churn out the OF, rotation, and bullpen.