September 2019 Game Thread

[Nick]

I just don't think signing someone like Nick Castellanos is going to move the needle at all for casual fans in Miami. A team that wins 69 games next year with Nick Castellanos is going to have the same attendance as our 59-win team this year. I do agree on locking up Anderson, though. That should be a priority.

[fish16]

Castellanos numbers would also plummet in this lineup and ballpark in my opinion

[lou]

The Fangraphs seesaw on do we like the Marlins or not continues. They are into Sandy, and this explains the recent uptick in performance. His sinker is destroying people - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sandy-al...ay-to-success/

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I really feel the Marlins are going to sneak up on people pretty soon. There is so much arm talent they are going to churn out some sort of positive rotation and bullpen soon (absent injuries), and if they get 1-2 real offensive breakouts to match with Anderson as 3+ WAR position players, 2-3 good free agents is really going to do wonders to fill out whatever holes exist.

They gotta spend that money though. Culture building.

[fauowls44]

I just don't think signing someone like Nick Castellanos is going to move the needle at all for casual fans in Miami. A team that wins 69 games next year with Nick Castellanos is going to have the same attendance as our 59-win team this year. I do agree on locking up Anderson, though. That should be a priority.

I don't think the point should be moving the needle for casual fans. The point is to prove you aren't like the past owners and start behaving like an actual MLB team. They need an impact bat...they have plenty of room in the payroll to do it, so go get an impact bat.

They need to show fans they are different this time. Do enough things to show actual commitment to building a winning team and people will start to trust them. The first step was rebuilding the barren farm system. They've done that. By all accounts, this is a top 10 system now with another year of high draft picks on the way. The next step is to show a willingness to spend the money necessary to improve the MLB product.

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Interesting Marlins notes from Ken Rosenthal. I believe that this is the first time a national writer has talked about Hill being replaced:

Miami Marlins
Forever patient, Don Mattingly has the right temperament for the rebuilding Marlins, but it’s his salary – perhaps more than anything – that might prompt the team to hire a new manager.

Mattingly earned $2.4 million last season, according to USA Today, and probably slightly more than that this season, the final year of his contract. The Marlins, though, continue to lose money and like many teams, they might simply opt for someone less expensive.

Another possible change with the Marlins: The removal of president of baseball operations Michael Hill. Hill, 48, joined the Marlins in 2002, became GM in ’07 and president of baseball operations in ’13. But his influence has waned under new ownership, with Jeter leaning more on his longtime mentor and confidant from the Yankees, Gary Denbo. Hill is one of two African-Americans in a leadership position in baseball operations with a club, along with the White Sox’s Ken Williams. (The Marlins’ Derek Jeter and Dodgers’ Magic Johnson are the only prominent African-Americans involved in ownership).

Baseball people have been buzzing that the Marlins might hire in some capacity former Giants GM Brian Sabean, who was the Yankees’ vice president of player development and scouting when the team drafted Jeter in ’92. But at present, such talk is unfounded, sources say.

[Nick]

I don't think the point should be moving the needle for casual fans. The point is to prove you aren't like the past owners and start behaving like an actual MLB team. They need an impact bat...they have plenty of room in the payroll to do it, so go get an impact bat.

I agree, Rendon. That's how you send a message. Castellanos is a guy you give a 3 or 4 year contract if you think he's the last piece of the puzzle. He'd be about the 8th to last piece of the puzzle for us.

[fauowls44]

I agree, Rendon. That's how you send a message. Castellanos is a guy you give a 3 or 4 year contract if you think he's the last piece of the puzzle. He'd be about the 8th to last piece of the puzzle for us.

Rendon would be great. I just use Castellanos as an example because I think he’s way more realistic of a target. He’s from here, doesn’t have draft pick compensation tied to him, and doesn’t require the type of financial commitment that Rendon would. Same with Puig. Regardless, it could be any impact bat...just show the public you’re putting in the effort to win again.

[Namaste]

Rendon is worth the financial commitment.

[tjfla]

I don't think the point should be moving the needle for casual fans. The point is to prove you aren't like the past owners and start behaving like an actual MLB team. They need an impact bat...they have plenty of room in the payroll to do it, so go get an impact bat.

They need to show fans they are different this time. Do enough things to show actual commitment to building a winning team and people will start to trust them. The first step was rebuilding the barren farm system. They've done that. By all accounts, this is a top 10 system now with another year of high draft picks on the way. The next step is to show a willingness to spend the money necessary to improve the MLB product.

- - - - - - - - - -

Interesting Marlins notes from Ken Rosenthal. I believe that this is the first time a national writer has talked about Hill being replaced:

Ive been saying it since Jeter bought the team!!!! The plan has been for Denbo to take over as soon as he got the minors under control(2020 was goal)-Mike Hill will be in system until contract is done but more likely just GM or something that has him go to meetings/answer calls and deal with all the office stuff which Denbo has no interest in.Mike Hill has NO power now he just does all the office crap!! Mattingly GONE and Hillman,NOLA Manager,(Keith Johnson I think)Posada,Duncan likely.

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I agree, Rendon. That's how you send a message. Castellanos is a guy you give a 3 or 4 year contract if you think he's the last piece of the puzzle. He'd be about the 8th to last piece of the puzzle for us.

Castellanos is nothing great but like Philly did with Carlos Santana u gotta sign some guys to show everyone u willing to spend. I would go with Rendon and Cole first and then guys like Castellanos at 3/40 or so. Ozuna/Castellanos/Puig are all on the radar but NONE are top priority as they wanna give guys like Monte/Jesus AB's and BA can play RF

Long as they don't offer some crazy 4/80-100 for Castellanos he is not a bad signing

- - - - - - - - - -

The Fangraphs seesaw on do we like the Marlins or not continues. They are into Sandy, and this explains the recent uptick in performance. His sinker is destroying people - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sandy-al...ay-to-success/

- - - - - - - - - -

I really feel the Marlins are going to sneak up on people pretty soon. There is so much arm talent they are going to churn out some sort of positive rotation and bullpen soon (absent injuries), and if they get 1-2 real offensive breakouts to match with Anderson as 3+ WAR position players, 2-3 good free agents is really going to do wonders to fill out whatever holes exist.

They gotta spend that money though. Culture building.

Alot of people think this. The craziest thing about all of it is the "best" arms arent even up. Sixto/Neidert/Cabrera/Garrett and they have tons more depth who are 23-25 already. This is 1 reason why we traded SP for bats. Gonna be interesting to see what they do in 2020 Draft-tons of College SP(Hancock/Wilcox/Ginn) and 2 big bats.They could either add to SP depth or grab Austin Martin who can play 2B/SS/3B whoever they get will likely end year in Jupiter and be in Jax to start 2021. SS/3B Yiddi Cappe is still with us for 2020 as well-most teams who were looking at him already spent most of cash

I love how they actually has a plan for once and are sticking to it.

We have more SP coming to in Mejia,Guerrero,Soriano,Givin,Palacios,Fitterer,Mok ma. Gonna be interesting if they push these guys or what. The 23-25 yr old SP are Roberson,Puckett,Walters,Remey Reed

[Lee Stone]

Castellanos? Good grief. Minus a hot streak over the last 40 games for the Cubs, he IS Garrett Cooper, with even more defensive limitations. One Cooper is certainly enough. There's only one first base to defend.

If I were going to sign a free agent for 3/45 or 4/60, it would definitely be Marcell Ozuna. Great personality, loads of talent, and good history with the Marlins. His healthy 2017 season was phenomenal. He missed some time with injury this year or would easily be the Cardinals most productive hitter this season (Yep, better than Goldschmidt).

[fish16]

Alcantara has taken a step. Definitely much more than a potential number 5 at best

[fish16]

6 out of his last 7 outings sandy has gone at least 7 innings and the other game he went 6 innings

[lou]

Castellanos? Good grief. Minus a hot streak over the last 40 games for the Cubs, he IS Garrett Cooper, with even more defensive limitations. One Cooper is certainly enough. There's only one first base to defend.

If I were going to sign a free agent for 3/45 or 4/60, it would definitely be Marcell Ozuna. Great personality, loads of talent, and good history with the Marlins. His healthy 2017 season was phenomenal. He missed some time with injury this year or would easily be the Cardinals most productive hitter this season (Yep, better than Goldschmidt).

I think Castellanos is going to get minimum 4/$60, and I can see 5/$80. He can really, really, hit. He's definitely best suited for an AL club he can DH half the year though. He's not this ridiculous defensive liability either. He'd be "adequate" in RF and maybe 1B (even if still below average), and still probably get to 3 WAR seasons in his hitting prime. This is a "if the price is right" signing for me. They'd be foolish to not grab him at 4/$60 if that's the price, defense be damned. It starts getting iffy moving the number up from there.

Ozuna I see a minimum 5/$90. His BABIP is very low this year (.267) and if his defense rebounds even a little (metrics good in LF this year), monster. Huge BB rate increase this year which I love. He's the 5th best FA to me (Rendon, Cole, Strausburg who is going to opt out, Didi). He's going to get paid. I think I'd sign him for something like this, and look to move one of Bleday and Sanchez for a different need (likely CF as I have little faith in Monte) in a year once we see how everyone looks. Maybe Sanchez can play some CF and this is all moot too. Either way, he's a good backup plan to selling the house for Rendon/Cole.

Any move like this inspires confidence and I am into as long as the contract is right.

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Rendon would be great. I just use Castellanos as an example because I think he’s way more realistic of a target. He’s from here, doesn’t have draft pick compensation tied to him, and doesn’t require the type of financial commitment that Rendon would. Same with Puig. Regardless, it could be any impact bat...just show the public you’re putting in the effort to win again.

I agree with Castellanos.

I don't think Puig is a culture fit (especially if Mattingly stays), but Puig could be an enormous value if they could sign him for something like 3/$40 with a depressed MLB market for his antics. He could just click. This is a far away backup plan to me. I would pass unless its an enormous club friendly deal.

[fish16]

I’d easily take puig before castellanos in terms of solely on field production. I thought we should have gone after him a few years ago when the dodgers were willing to give him for very little. He’s a character on and off the field but he’s a legitimate impact bat and glove

[Lee Stone]

I guess in the new baseball economy Ozuna could command $18 M per. If the Cardinals don't work out an extension, I presume they would make the obligatory one-year offer that would get them a draft pick from a team that signs Marcell ... so there's that. I just can't imagine a safer signing. He'd be the smiling face of the franchise. He would also be surrounded by Alcantara and Chisholm, guys that he directly/indirectly brought to Miami.

[lou]

I’d easily take puig before castellanos in terms of solely on field production. I thought we should have gone after him a few years ago when the dodgers were willing to give him for very little. He’s a character on and off the field but he’s a legitimate impact bat and glove

Castellanos 6.7 WAR, Puig 5.7 WAR last 3 years.

Last two years 5.3 Castellanos, 2.7 Puig.

Can't agree, but I do think Puig has massive untapped potential.