July 2019 Game Thread

[fish16]

bleday is signed. Misner supposedly will be too.

[Nick]

bleday is signed. Misner supposedly will be too.

Yay!

[fish16]

and according to mish whoever the hell our 12th round high school pitcher we drafted is also gonna sign. Mish says its the best draft class in franchise history- how that is determined or compared less than a month after the draft, who the hell knows.

[Nick]

At the very least it seemed like they had a very clear and concise plan of what they wanted to accomplish with the draft compared to other years.

[fish16]

At the very least it seemed like they had a very clear and concise plan of what they wanted to accomplish with the draft compared to other years.

absolutely. Pretty remarkable how just having a plan is nice to see to us after years of lorias bullshit.

[tjfla]

This is an old blurb from FanGraphs from before 2017 on Mejia. (Before Mejia's Injury that caused him to miss all of 2017, which I still don't know what it was)



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Looks like Mejia was in most of our Top 20 prospect lists before 2017 and his injury. Been missing from those lists since then.

John Sickels:



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I'd be very interested to hear what Mejia's fastball has been sitting at this year.

Mejia had arm injury(no clue if TJ or shoulder but think it was his shoulder). Reason dont remember is because we had a Mejia and Mojica-1 had TJ and other 1 had shoulder. Mojica is still in system but has thrown 3 innings since 2016

Think he is at 92/93

However Mejia is NOW on the Jupiter DL so?

Vallimont sits at 94/95

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and according to mish whoever the hell our 12th round high school pitcher we drafted is also gonna sign. Mish says its the best draft class in franchise history- how that is determined or compared less than a month after the draft, who the hell knows.

Nothing confirmed but looks like we might have "saved" 30K on Bleday. Slot is 6,664,000 but had "agreed" to a deal a 6,700,000 when talked. People are saying he "signed" for 6,667,000. Lots might say its ONLY $30,000 but every dollar counts when u have a hard cap

Actually we have to see what Misner signs for first. IF he signs for slot than we can offer like 600-625K to Mokma(which might be enough) but if Misner signs for 2.20-2.25 then Mokma is gonna be a tough sign. If we cant get Mokma I expect us to offer 300-400K to 1 or 2 other HS guys and see if any bite(Heard the 2 names but dont want guys losing shit if they dont sign)

Miami wants to sign Mokma/Baker/Mechals and MAYBE Justice. They can offer ALL of them 125K each

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At the very least it seemed like they had a very clear and concise plan of what they wanted to accomplish with the draft compared to other years.

Both drafts they had a plan and expect a plan next year as well. Next year's draft is gonna be the same as this years-BPA and spend as much as possible. They still need and want bats however 2020 Draft is college arm heavy

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If we get a bat we like I am not sure Richards lasts till August. Alot of teams from NYY to low market teams NOT in race(Balt/Detroit)have called on our arms.

Doubtful we get anything except 250K in IFA but Miami is trying to get Prado and Wallach back from inury to show they are healthy before deadline. Would be trading Prado and Holaday(Out of Options).

[lou]

If we get a bat we like I am not sure Richards lasts till August. Alot of teams from NYY to low market teams NOT in race(Balt/Detroit)have called on our arms.

Doubtful we get anything except 250K in IFA but Miami is trying to get Prado and Wallach back from inury to show they are healthy before deadline. Would be trading Prado and Holaday(Out of Options).

That's fine, and you just keep Urena for next year (or sign Cole/Wheeler/etc. in free agency for an appropriate number of years for who they are).

Richards is interesting though as he's basically paced as a 2 WAR guy for a season. Even if he has overachieved a little (I think we all agree with that?), he's still going to be an easy 1-1.5 WAR guy. If you do the surplus value math, even as a 1.5 WAR player, it's hard not to view Richards as having $45+ million in free agency value over 5 years of club control (7.5 WAR times $9 million/WAR minus $22 million projected contracts as a Super2). If we assume he gets better (2-2.5 WAR average years), you can get him into the $80-90 million surplus range which is borderline Realmuto value last year. 5 years of control produces a lot of value for a good player. I'm trying not to get Yelich triggered typing this...

I mean, no one is going to value Richards anywhere near Realmuto, and that's ignoring the replacement level of teams can probably sign annual $3-5 million veteran pitchers and get 1+ WAR of production much easier than whatever catchers are in free agency so how much additional value is Richards actually bringing to the table. But, he's still pretty valuable without a guaranteed contract and significant upside potential as his change is objectively good if someone can figure out how to improve his other offerings. Or as mentioned before, holy shit use him with an opener and take him out quick third time through the order.

A $45+ million valuation is basically asking for a FV50 pitcher (Gallen, Neidert last year, maybe E. Cabrera/Garrett now if they get bumped big), another FV45+ player (VVM, Neidert now, maybe Devers if he gets bumped here or E. Cabrera/Garrett if they don't get all the way bumped up), another solid FV40 prospect like Holloway, Osiris, or Banfield, and getting a outside of top 25 prospect throw-in (Ferrell, Eveld types). That's like the Ozuna trade, and taking a lesser 2nd prospect to Sierra at the time of trade. I mean, that's nuts and of course we'd all run to do something like that. It's not hard to justify that ask IF you believe Richards current MLB production is who he is.

I'd assume teams know they can get some base level production for cheap with annual 1 year free agents, so you'd do something like cut Richards value in half from there as you're only really getting whatever his value is over a normal street free agent, so that's probably worth no FV50 prospects and valuing him around $20 million surplus. I think that makes sense to everyone here. The Marlins would probably counter a bit higher and get him around that $40 million number, with a deal to be made if the Marlins can get $25-30 million in value. I would say in Marlins prospects terms, that's getting Devers/Neidert/VVM as the centerpiece, Guzman/Holloway as the 2nd player (good reliever projection), and two flyers, one a solid one like B. Miller/Sierra/Pompey/Dean with bench potential (or a solid IFA amount), and outside top 30 arm that profiles as a reliever (or low IFA amount) in a 4-1 trade. I know that's crazy, but they did get a bunch of guys for David Phelps and he had less years of control as a reliever. It's a compliment to Richards as he doesn't suck and is controlled for 5 seasons.

If you don't get something like that, I think you hold onto him until next deadline. If he drops another 30 starts at this same rate he's doing (basically 2 WAR/180-200 IP), so other teams are confident he is a "good 4" moving forward (which is the key as this is debatable today), a 4.5 year surplus value analysis in 365 days from today is getting him over $50 million anyway you want to slice it. And then you're going an Ozuna package for him, and what an independent league signing.

I think there is some/real risk in him not producing over his next 30 starts so I'd move him if they can a prospect package around $25 million in surplus, but I'm not budging at all from that number because at the same time, if he holds up, he could really double in value as a confident # 4 SP. Basically, they should stick to their guns and have no pressure to move him (or anyone with those years of control).

Realistically, attach Walker or Rojas or Castro to him which are all premium bench guys on a contender, maybe Romo or Conley, and I suspect you can get that $25 million prospect surplus value package. Which would be pretty outstanding adding say, another Devers/VVM, Guzman/Holloway, B. Miller/Sierra, Eveld/Brigham, and some decent IFA cash for Richards and any one of those guys they don't really need.

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The Brewers make a TON of sense to me for Richards and Rojas. Take Romo too, who cares.

They can use the years of control on both of them. Arcia is young with upside so they don't need a starter, but they should have a good backup as he is inconsistent. They took a SS first round in 2018 so they have their potential future starter in the pipeline. They need to win now and Rojas helps them positionally (everywhere). They can't wait on...

Dubon to become a player in a few years. He is a perfect centerpiece for those two, as a premium super utility projection floor and he's really hit in the minors this year. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16530&position=SS

They have two solid catcher prospects in High A - Henry and Feliciano (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-prospects-milwaukee-brewers/). They can live with one of them to win now and shoot out the other one.

And they have an assortment of twenty other FV40 prospects to grab two more and/or some IFA cash.

Really lines up.

[Lee Stone]

To get a hitter who might really matter (M Andujar or Frazier from Yankees, for example), I dangle Alcantara. The silly All Star appointment actually adds to momentary value. Beneath the surface, his WHIP numbers over the last few seasons indicate that he won't be excellent. Too much contact and too many BB.

[lou]

To get a hitter who might really matter (M Andujar or Frazier from Yankees, for example), I dangle Alcantara. The silly All Star appointment actually adds to momentary value. Beneath the surface, his WHIP numbers over the last few seasons indicate that he won't be excellent. Too much contact and too many BB.

I don't think teams value a mandatory all star pick value adding. If anything, it lowers his value as it lets him build a better arbitration case which impacts future costs.

If you can get a healthy Andujar and believe in Gallen/Neidert turning into a #4 at least, sure. But while you can point to warts on Sandy, he's also a tweak away from becoming an absolute monster with his GB/HR/Hard Hit rate potentials. A small uptick in whiffs and downtick in walks, and it's going to be a production explosion in a good way. He seems to have a good head on his shoulders as I read an article he was trying to induce a GB double play in the all star game - and he did it (and is among the league leaders in doing it) - and he went out of his way to have a conversation with Kershaw about how to throw a curveball better. You'd need a stud to move him at this point for me as the upside is too much to ignore.

[Lee Stone]

It's an indictment against all the Marlin starters that when they miss out of the zone, they miss by six or twelve inches, not just a few. The result is not getting a high swing rate on those pitches, running up pitch count. (Every team the Marlins play seems to have better plate discipline.)

[lou]

It's an indictment against all the Marlin starters that when they miss out of the zone, they miss by six or twelve inches, not just a few. The result is not getting a high swing rate on those pitches, running up pitch count. (Every team the Marlins play seems to have better plate discipline.)

7th in ERA and 16th in WAR for the SP. They pretty much haven't even "arrived" yet as it's all their first full season or cup of coffee. Not near their prime years at all year. Not sure what your point is. The SP is collectively a best case scenario this year. You have to get 15 guys deep to W. Stewart to find a disappointment.

You should be thrilled. They are going to get a staff out of these guys allowing them to spend a ton on bats, and likely trading for another impactful one if this keeps up.

[Lee Stone]

Merely saying that there is an obvious area for general improvement. Richards, Lopez, all of them are walking hitters at a much higher rate than they did in the minors.

[fish16]

Merely saying that there is an obvious area for general improvement. Richards, Lopez, all of them are walking hitters at a much higher rate than they did in the minors.

hmm, and yet you still continue to treat minor league stats as if they are everything.

[Lee Stone]

They are not everything ... just the most revealing info available. Actual results mean a helluva lot more than speed gun readings.

[Namaste]

Imagine being concerned about the future of Marlins starting pitching