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Originally posted by lou
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That's fine, and you just keep Urena for next year (or sign Cole/Wheeler/etc. in free agency for an appropriate number of years for who they are).
Richards is interesting though as he's basically paced as a 2 WAR guy for a season. Even if he has overachieved a little (I think we all agree with that?), he's still going to be an easy 1-1.5 WAR guy. If you do the surplus value math, even as a 1.5 WAR player, it's hard not to view Richards as having $45+ million in free agency value over 5 years of club control (7.5 WAR times $9 million/WAR minus $22 million projected contracts as a Super2). If we assume he gets better (2-2.5 WAR average years), you can get him into the $80-90 million surplus range which is borderline Realmuto value last year. 5 years of control produces a lot of value for a good player. I'm trying not to get Yelich triggered typing this...
I mean, no one is going to value Richards anywhere near Realmuto, and that's ignoring the replacement level of teams can probably sign annual $3-5 million veteran pitchers and get 1+ WAR of production much easier than whatever catchers are in free agency so how much additional value is Richards actually bringing to the table. But, he's still pretty valuable without a guaranteed contract and significant upside potential as his change is objectively good if someone can figure out how to improve his other offerings. Or as mentioned before, holy shit use him with an opener and take him out quick third time through the order.
A $45+ million valuation is basically asking for a FV50 pitcher (Gallen, Neidert last year, maybe E. Cabrera/Garrett now if they get bumped big), another FV45+ player (VVM, Neidert now, maybe Devers if he gets bumped here or E. Cabrera/Garrett if they don't get all the way bumped up), another solid FV40 prospect like Holloway, Osiris, or Banfield, and getting a outside of top 25 prospect throw-in (Ferrell, Eveld types). That's like the Ozuna trade, and taking a lesser 2nd prospect to Sierra at the time of trade. I mean, that's nuts and of course we'd all run to do something like that. It's not hard to justify that ask IF you believe Richards current MLB production is who he is.
I'd assume teams know they can get some base level production for cheap with annual 1 year free agents, so you'd do something like cut Richards value in half from there as you're only really getting whatever his value is over a normal street free agent, so that's probably worth no FV50 prospects and valuing him around $20 million surplus. I think that makes sense to everyone here. The Marlins would probably counter a bit higher and get him around that $40 million number, with a deal to be made if the Marlins can get $25-30 million in value. I would say in Marlins prospects terms, that's getting Devers/Neidert/VVM as the centerpiece, Guzman/Holloway as the 2nd player (good reliever projection), and two flyers, one a solid one like B. Miller/Sierra/Pompey/Dean with bench potential (or a solid IFA amount), and outside top 30 arm that profiles as a reliever (or low IFA amount) in a 4-1 trade. I know that's crazy, but they did get a bunch of guys for David Phelps and he had less years of control as a reliever. It's a compliment to Richards as he doesn't suck and is controlled for 5 seasons.
If you don't get something like that, I think you hold onto him until next deadline. If he drops another 30 starts at this same rate he's doing (basically 2 WAR/180-200 IP), so other teams are confident he is a "good 4" moving forward (which is the key as this is debatable today), a 4.5 year surplus value analysis in 365 days from today is getting him over $50 million anyway you want to slice it. And then you're going an Ozuna package for him, and what an independent league signing.
I think there is some/real risk in him not producing over his next 30 starts so I'd move him if they can a prospect package around $25 million in surplus, but I'm not budging at all from that number because at the same time, if he holds up, he could really double in value as a confident # 4 SP. Basically, they should stick to their guns and have no pressure to move him (or anyone with those years of control).
Realistically, attach Walker or Rojas or Castro to him which are all premium bench guys on a contender, maybe Romo or Conley, and I suspect you can get that $25 million prospect surplus value package. Which would be pretty outstanding adding say, another Devers/VVM, Guzman/Holloway, B. Miller/Sierra, Eveld/Brigham, and some decent IFA cash for Richards and any one of those guys they don't really need.
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The Brewers make a TON of sense to me for Richards and Rojas. Take Romo too, who cares.
They can use the years of control on both of them. Arcia is young with upside so they don't need a starter, but they should have a good backup as he is inconsistent. They took a SS first round in 2018 so they have their potential future starter in the pipeline. They need to win now and Rojas helps them positionally (everywhere). They can't wait on...
Dubon to become a player in a few years. He is a perfect centerpiece for those two, as a premium super utility projection floor and he's really hit in the minors this year. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...30&position=SS
They have two solid catcher prospects in High A - Henry and Feliciano (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-p...aukee-brewers/). They can live with one of them to win now and shoot out the other one.
And they have an assortment of twenty other FV40 prospects to grab two more and/or some IFA cash.
Really lines up.
Richards is interesting though as he's basically paced as a 2 WAR guy for a season. Even if he has overachieved a little (I think we all agree with that?), he's still going to be an easy 1-1.5 WAR guy. If you do the surplus value math, even as a 1.5 WAR player, it's hard not to view Richards as having $45+ million in free agency value over 5 years of club control (7.5 WAR times $9 million/WAR minus $22 million projected contracts as a Super2). If we assume he gets better (2-2.5 WAR average years), you can get him into the $80-90 million surplus range which is borderline Realmuto value last year. 5 years of control produces a lot of value for a good player. I'm trying not to get Yelich triggered typing this...
I mean, no one is going to value Richards anywhere near Realmuto, and that's ignoring the replacement level of teams can probably sign annual $3-5 million veteran pitchers and get 1+ WAR of production much easier than whatever catchers are in free agency so how much additional value is Richards actually bringing to the table. But, he's still pretty valuable without a guaranteed contract and significant upside potential as his change is objectively good if someone can figure out how to improve his other offerings. Or as mentioned before, holy shit use him with an opener and take him out quick third time through the order.
A $45+ million valuation is basically asking for a FV50 pitcher (Gallen, Neidert last year, maybe E. Cabrera/Garrett now if they get bumped big), another FV45+ player (VVM, Neidert now, maybe Devers if he gets bumped here or E. Cabrera/Garrett if they don't get all the way bumped up), another solid FV40 prospect like Holloway, Osiris, or Banfield, and getting a outside of top 25 prospect throw-in (Ferrell, Eveld types). That's like the Ozuna trade, and taking a lesser 2nd prospect to Sierra at the time of trade. I mean, that's nuts and of course we'd all run to do something like that. It's not hard to justify that ask IF you believe Richards current MLB production is who he is.
I'd assume teams know they can get some base level production for cheap with annual 1 year free agents, so you'd do something like cut Richards value in half from there as you're only really getting whatever his value is over a normal street free agent, so that's probably worth no FV50 prospects and valuing him around $20 million surplus. I think that makes sense to everyone here. The Marlins would probably counter a bit higher and get him around that $40 million number, with a deal to be made if the Marlins can get $25-30 million in value. I would say in Marlins prospects terms, that's getting Devers/Neidert/VVM as the centerpiece, Guzman/Holloway as the 2nd player (good reliever projection), and two flyers, one a solid one like B. Miller/Sierra/Pompey/Dean with bench potential (or a solid IFA amount), and outside top 30 arm that profiles as a reliever (or low IFA amount) in a 4-1 trade. I know that's crazy, but they did get a bunch of guys for David Phelps and he had less years of control as a reliever. It's a compliment to Richards as he doesn't suck and is controlled for 5 seasons.
If you don't get something like that, I think you hold onto him until next deadline. If he drops another 30 starts at this same rate he's doing (basically 2 WAR/180-200 IP), so other teams are confident he is a "good 4" moving forward (which is the key as this is debatable today), a 4.5 year surplus value analysis in 365 days from today is getting him over $50 million anyway you want to slice it. And then you're going an Ozuna package for him, and what an independent league signing.
I think there is some/real risk in him not producing over his next 30 starts so I'd move him if they can a prospect package around $25 million in surplus, but I'm not budging at all from that number because at the same time, if he holds up, he could really double in value as a confident # 4 SP. Basically, they should stick to their guns and have no pressure to move him (or anyone with those years of control).
Realistically, attach Walker or Rojas or Castro to him which are all premium bench guys on a contender, maybe Romo or Conley, and I suspect you can get that $25 million prospect surplus value package. Which would be pretty outstanding adding say, another Devers/VVM, Guzman/Holloway, B. Miller/Sierra, Eveld/Brigham, and some decent IFA cash for Richards and any one of those guys they don't really need.
- - - - - - - - - -
The Brewers make a TON of sense to me for Richards and Rojas. Take Romo too, who cares.
They can use the years of control on both of them. Arcia is young with upside so they don't need a starter, but they should have a good backup as he is inconsistent. They took a SS first round in 2018 so they have their potential future starter in the pipeline. They need to win now and Rojas helps them positionally (everywhere). They can't wait on...
Dubon to become a player in a few years. He is a perfect centerpiece for those two, as a premium super utility projection floor and he's really hit in the minors this year. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...30&position=SS
They have two solid catcher prospects in High A - Henry and Feliciano (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-p...aukee-brewers/). They can live with one of them to win now and shoot out the other one.
And they have an assortment of twenty other FV40 prospects to grab two more and/or some IFA cash.
Really lines up.
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