July 2019 Game Thread

[fish16]

I wish we could have found a way to deal for Yordan alvarez like i was asking for during the JT discussions. A giant lefty cuban 1b who absolutely crushes the ball and is young and under control for 6 years is exactly the type of piece this team needs at 1b or a corner OF spot. Im surprised we managed to deal all of those guys without finding some way of matching up with the braves or astros on any of their top guys.

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There's been talk of reopening the CBA too, and that is something the union definitely wants to change.



The only problem is we won't be the only team in on Cole.

Absolutely they should change it. Guys keep getting fucked in free agency because teams dont want to pay big money and then also have to give up a draft pick. I think teams that lose free agents should maybe get a compensation pick but punishing teams for spending in free agency is a terrible deal for the players union. Who the hell negotiated that?

[lou]

Sandy, Richards and Trevor Rogers for Tucker and Myles Straw.

Considering they are going for it this year, I think they'd want all MLB guys, preferably with Options.

I think Sandy, Elisier, and Conley would be really hard for them to pass up in a 3-1 given the years of control there, and maybe you get a whatever 2nd player from them years away.

I don't hate the idea though. I am extremely adamant about not trading pitchers, but a guy with 6 years of control with top end potential is hard to pass.

[rmc523]

I wish we could have found a way to deal for Yordan alvarez like i was asking for during the JT discussions. A giant lefty cuban 1b who absolutely crushes the ball and is young and under control for 6 years is exactly the type of piece this team needs at 1b or a corner OF spot. Im surprised we managed to deal all of those guys without finding some way of matching up with the braves or astros on any of their top guys.

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Absolutely they should change it. Guys keep getting fucked in free agency because teams dont want to pay big money and then also have to give up a draft pick. I think teams that lose free agents should maybe get a compensation pick but punishing teams for spending in free agency is a terrible deal for the players union. Who the hell negotiated that?

The question is when, though. Will they open it and change it before the current one expires? Or will it wait until it expires and renegotiates the next one. I'd assume any sort of major change mid-CBA like that might result in some sort of extension?

[fish16]

Considering they are going for it this year, I think they'd want all MLB guys, preferably with Options.

I think Sandy, Elisier, and Conley would be really hard for them to pass up in a 3-1 given the years of control there, and maybe you get a whatever 2nd player from them years away.

I don't hate the idea though. I am extremely adamant about not trading pitchers, but a guy with 6 years of control with top end potential is hard to pass.

i dont think they are in the position where they will want to trade Tucker. They have been in on so many guys that they have ended up not getting because teams were asking for tucker. I doubt they will do it for a guy like Sandy who most of us seem to like, but who most of us also acknowledge likely is more of a mid rotation guy than a top of the rotation guy. I could see Caleb Smith getting it done though. And that's a deal id think very hard about doing given our need for bats and the somewhat surplus of rotation guys. I wish urena was healthy to be able to get something for him.

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I do however love the idea of trading whichever one of these SP's we have for a top prospect like Tucker as a way of finding that bat we need much more than spending big in free agency on guys who arent worth it. Especially for a guy like tucker under team control and who would be in the majors on just about any other team.

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The question is when, though. Will they open it and change it before the current one expires? Or will it wait until it expires and renegotiates the next one. I'd assume any sort of major change mid-CBA like that might result in some sort of extension?

I think we are going to see a huge fundamental change in how baseball contracts are structured and how team control and free agency works in the next CBA. Just from the players perspective, there needs to be changes to the system that disincentives teams from keeping guys down only for service time reasons, changes the age at which guys get to free agency, and, relatedly, changes how many years of team control teams get over these players and how that is calculated. It shouldnt take guys who arent phenoms that come up at 20 or 21 until they are 30 years old to get to free agency or at least a bigger paycheck.

[tjfla]

Next year we will get MORE IFA cash but instead of a 1S we get a 2S pick and in 2021 Draft we get LESS IFA cash but a 1S pick

Top 15 Picks are protected so likely we are looking at this for 2020 Draft

#3
#42
#75
#80

OR

#3
#35(Misner Comp)
#42
#75
#80

Like lou said however not only do u lose the pick but u lose the $ too which means u either have to forget about BPA and look at cash OR at #3 take a guy who will sign for less. They have an offer out to Cappe(who would be 1st/2nd Rd Pick in 2020 Draft)

Picks have to be signed by Friday-Bleday will sign but Misner is WHO KNOWS? Marlins made offer so if he doesn't sign we get the #35 Pick in 2020 Draft and would have like 200K or so(depends on Bleday) to spend on others

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Houston is willing to talk Tucker and NYY is willing to talk Frazier. Thing is Miami has really only been willing to talk Urena and Richards right now(Urena out-I meant earlier). If Miami would talk Caleb or Sandy both teams would listen

Sandy,Elieser,Conley for Tucker and Freudis Nova
Sandy,Rojas,Conley for Frazier,Tyler Wade,Denbo guy or 2

Both would work for both teams

Minn,TB,Oak,NYY,Philly,Milw,Houston,Boston,SD,LAA, Cubs are in on SP. Pitt/Clev has called us too-assume for SP(they have tons of MIF/OF)

Should start hearing talks about us soon. Castro,Walker,Romo,Grandy,Conley/RP now with Rojas/SP closer to deadline

TB is the team to watch for our guys. They have IFA,MIF guys we like and mid level prospects. Romo,Castro,Walker,other RP have all gotten calls from them

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It's a confusing system for sure. rmc523's post above is near spot on how I understand it.

I would just add, (TJ????) the Marlins are extremely likely going to get competitive balance picks end of round 1 and/or 2 next few years as they are, technically speaking, a "shitty revenue team."

So, it may not be losing a 3 + 4 as their third pick may not be a 3rd rounder. It's very likely a 2nd rounder, whether their actual 2nd (if they get a comp 1st) or comp pick 2nd (if they get a comp 2nd).

This pushes the whole "third pick" analysis to being a "2" and not a "3."

So, if you sign just Didi and no one else receiving a qualifying offer for next year, you're losing likely a 2nd rounder in 2020. That's going to be either pick 45 or 70 depending on how it falls.

If you then ear-mark free agency money for 21/22 and don't sign a compliment to him (Cole/Rendon/Ozuna/Castellanos/Wheeler/etc.), you're losing your third pick again in 21/22 - which may be another 2nd rounder which is my issue here - and not your fourth pick in 2020, which is likely your third rounder. That's a pretty big draft delta to me. TJ will also say, you are also giving up draft pool money with the lost picks, so the "Banfield" and "Fitterer" signings will be harder to do without having those bucks to work with. There is some real value there too so you really get whacked twice.

I mean the draft is a crapshoot so maybe I am over thinking this, but the Marlins really need their picks to hit and if they can improve draft capital by signing two guys in 1 offseason versus doing it in 2 offseason, that seems like an absolute no brainer to me.

Sign Didi we would lose 2nd Rd Comp Pick(#75) OR 2nd Rd Pick(#42) and then sign another FA and lose 3rd Rd Pick(#80) OR 2nd Rd Comp Pick(#75) and lose about 3.5 million in pool space. U can be OK in 2020 if u cut a deal at #3 but still its alot to give up

They could also trade Urena in offseason and try to get a draft pick in that deal?

This is another reason u could see us make trades for guys. When I said trade for Castellanos-I dont mean giving up anything great but if Detroit is like mid level prospect or 2 maybe u make that deal.(Keep draft pick/$ and get early look at him/talk to him about extension) I would be fine trading a Thomas Jones or Chris Torres and Cody Poteet. Same thing with Lindor or other FA. U got tons of guys who need to be on the 40 man soon dont forget

Shit Detroit signed Raul Campos(DSL guy) brother to a 3 million dollar bonus maybe they are like Poteet and Raul Campos for Castellanos. U get him without any draft pick worry and then get to talk to him for 2/3 months before anyone else can. Is Castellanos great? Not really but solid bat who can play RF/1B,wont cost as much as Ozuna(NEVERMIND he just hired Boras 2 months ago HAHAHA) and is from South Florida. Just so people know I am not a Castellanos fan that much just keep hearing he is a name we would look at

[lou]

Misner not signing really impacts signing FA next year as that'll push the lost pick to an extremely early 2 at minimum. They need to sign him so they can lose "worse" picks for Didi.

I would do either of those "Sandy" trades in a second, and just keep Urena for next year (or ideally sign Cole, maybe Wheeler).

Castellanos is a playoff contender difference maker. I think you're going to need to up those players big time to get him right now. I like him if he'll sign a reasonable 3-5 year deal though. Say, $13-14 per year? 3/$42-4/$52-5/$70 high/low range? He can hit if you can turn him into even an average defender somewhere. He's basically a 2.3 WAR pacing player 2016-2019 and he is 28 opening day next year. That's a solid starter, with upside, and the right prime years. Relatively low risk. I'd still prefer spending more on Ozuna though, or doing that "Sandy" trade which nets the corner bat they need.

[tjfla]

Misner not signing really impacts signing FA next year as that'll push the lost pick to an extremely early 2 at minimum. They need to sign him so they can lose "worse" picks for Didi.

I would do either of those "Sandy" trades in a second, and just keep Urena for next year (or ideally sign Cole, maybe Wheeler).

Castellanos is a playoff contender difference maker. I think you're going to need to up those players big time to get him right now. I like him if he'll sign a reasonable 3-5 year deal though. Say, $13-14 per year? 3/$42-4/$52-5/$70 high/low range? He can hit if you can turn him into even an average defender somewhere. He's basically a 2.3 WAR pacing player 2016-2019 and he is 28 opening day next year. That's a solid starter, with upside, and the right prime years. Relatively low risk. I'd still prefer spending more on Ozuna though, or doing that "Sandy" trade which nets the corner bat they need.

Ya if Misner doesn't sign then Marlins lose #42 if sign a FA

Urena is likely gone in offseason

Same here. I am no Castellanos fan but will be cheaper than Ozuna and can hit. Try him in RF at first and if not 1B. I would love for them to try for Frazier just not sure they would trade the arms/package the NYY would want. If NYY says Sandy,Rojas and Conley I would be on that quick but feeling is they want ALOT more

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At this point 2020 Rotation is

ML-Caleb/Urena/Sandy/Pablo/Richards/Elieser(LR)
AAA-Yamamoto/Gallen/Sixto/Neidert/Poteet/Guzman(RP)/Dugger(LR)

ALL of them on 40 man too

[fish16]

Misner not signing really impacts signing FA next year as that'll push the lost pick to an extremely early 2 at minimum. They need to sign him so they can lose "worse" picks for Didi.

I would do either of those "Sandy" trades in a second, and just keep Urena for next year (or ideally sign Cole, maybe Wheeler).

Castellanos is a playoff contender difference maker. I think you're going to need to up those players big time to get him right now. I like him if he'll sign a reasonable 3-5 year deal though. Say, $13-14 per year? 3/$42-4/$52-5/$70 high/low range? He can hit if you can turn him into even an average defender somewhere. He's basically a 2.3 WAR pacing player 2016-2019 and he is 28 opening day next year. That's a solid starter, with upside, and the right prime years. Relatively low risk. I'd still prefer spending more on Ozuna though, or doing that "Sandy" trade which nets the corner bat they need.

or they could just not sign didi to a contract he isnt worth even without taking into consideration the lost pick. One thing i will say though, is that given recent history, the attachment of draft compensation to some of these guys has definitely dampened their free agent market, so id be cool with didi if the draft compensation tied to him makes him significantly more affordable.

[tjfla]

We could have something like this in 2020


ML-Caleb/Urena/Sandy/Pablo/Richards/Elieser(LR)
AAA-Yamamoto/Gallen/Sixto/Neidert/Poteet/Guzman(RP)/Dugger(LR)
AA-Cabrera/Garrett/Rogers/Mejia/Puckett/Vallimont/Holloway(RP)
A-Stewart/Guerrero/Roberson/Tyler Jones/Soriano/Remey Reed/Walters(RP)
Lo A-Givin/Palacios/Hoeing/Andrew Miller/Maldonado/Fitterer

SP Depth is insane

Then 3 of Top 5 guys in draft are College SP

[fish16]

Ya if Misner doesn't sign then Marlins lose #42 if sign a FA

Urena is likely gone in offseason

Same here. I am no Castellanos fan but will be cheaper than Ozuna and can hit. Try him in RF at first and if not 1B. I would love for them to try for Frazier just not sure they would trade the arms/package the NYY would want. If NYY says Sandy,Rojas and Conley I would be on that quick but feeling is they want ALOT more

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At this point 2020 Rotation is

ML-Caleb/Urena/Sandy/Pablo/Richards/Elieser(LR)
AAA-Yamamoto/Gallen/Sixto/Neidert/Poteet/Guzman(RP)/Dugger(LR)

ALL of them on 40 man too

Castellanos cant be a guy here unless they try to move him to 1b or he is one of those guys who has to settle for a 1 year deal. He is a disaster in the OF.

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We could have something like this in 2020


ML-Caleb/Urena/Sandy/Pablo/Richards/Elieser(LR)
AAA-Yamamoto/Gallen/Sixto/Neidert/Poteet/Guzman(RP)/Dugger(LR)
AA-Cabrera/Garrett/Rogers/Mejia/Puckett/Vallimont/Holloway(RP)
A-Stewart/Guerrero/Roberson/Tyler Jones/Soriano/Remey Reed/Walters(RP)
Lo A-Givin/Palacios/Hoeing/Andrew Miller/Maldonado/Fitterer

SP Depth is insane

Id start trying to see what Holloway and Guzman can do as bullpen arms. I think Guzman has earned an opportunity to come up here out of the bullpen in september. This isnt all that impressive but its an interesting stat: he's gone 14 consecutive starts in AA this year going at least 5 IP. His peripheral numbers have also gotten better slightly. He's at the same amount of IP as last year and he 15 less walks and a WHIP that is 1.33 this year as opposed to 1.54 last year. His K rate is slightly down but id assume that would play up out of the bullpen. With the amount of depth we have at SP id see what he can do out of the bullpen in september to get him somewhat used to that role and then maybe bring him out of the bullpen to start next year.

[rmc523]

or they could just not sign didi to a contract he isnt worth even without taking into consideration the lost pick. One thing i will say though, is that given recent history, the attachment of draft compensation to some of these guys has definitely dampened their free agent market, so id be cool with didi if the draft compensation tied to him makes him significantly more affordable.

Do we think he's going to even get a QO? And for that matter, if he is offered one, and there are so few teams needing a SS, does he just accept it and re-enter the market next year?

[tjfla]

Do we think he's going to even get a QO? And for that matter, if he is offered one, and there are so few teams needing a SS, does he just accept it and re-enter the market next year?

Probably teams like NYY love getting that pool $. If he accepts they just trade him

Teams that love the draft SD/NYY/Houston/TB love getting that pool space because it lets them do so much more in the draft. U can take hard signs and offer big money

[lou]

or they could just not sign didi to a contract he isnt worth even without taking into consideration the lost pick. One thing i will say though, is that given recent history, the attachment of draft compensation to some of these guys has definitely dampened their free agent market, so id be cool with didi if the draft compensation tied to him makes him significantly more affordable.

We are all aware you don't like Didi for baseless reasons and want to sign a player currently signed to the Rangers for 3 more years.

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Do we think he's going to even get a QO? And for that matter, if he is offered one, and there are so few teams needing a SS, does he just accept it and re-enter the market next year?

Didi is 100% getting a qualifying offer if he proves health and is "normal" Didi of the last 4 years. He is great.

If the market sucks, maybe he would accept. I can't see any scenario though where the Marlins don't offer him 4/$60 minimum - again assuming health.

He will get signed by someone. He isn't Kimbrel (reliever) or Keuchel (older SP).

[fish16]

We are all aware you don't like Didi for baseless reasons and want to sign a player currently signed to the Rangers for 3 more years.

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Didi is 100% getting a qualifying offer if he proves health and is "normal" Didi of the last 4 years. He is great.

If the market sucks, maybe he would accept. I can't see any scenario though where the Marlins don't offer him 4/$60 minimum - again assuming health.

He will get signed by someone. He isn't Kimbrel (reliever) or Keuchel (older SP).

the reasons arent baseless. Its that he isnt a star even in that ballpark and lineup and youre trying to pay him like he is even though his numbers will assuredly go down as he ages and leaves a great ballpark and lineup for a terrible ballpark and lineup. Elvis Andrus if he opts out for 2 years and whatever amount of money it will take to make it worth it to opt out is a much better option than paying a non star who has put up an .800 OPS once in his career star money for 4 years.

Andrus would be the perfect fit in this ballpark as our leadoff man. Didi would lose a significant amount of his power and doesnt have speed to impact the game in other ways like Andrus does. Neither of them are stars. Gimme andrus for 2 years and then go after Lindor when he comes up. You dont pay guys long term big money who arent stars. Simple as that.

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and one of them likely wouldnt result in a loss of draft picks. Andrus on pace to hit .300, 15 hr's, 35 2b's, ops around .800, and steal 35 bases at an 80% clip. He's a more impactful hitter in the context of our lineup and home ballpark. Id pay him 15-20 million (whatever it would take to make it worth it for him to opt out) for 2 years before even looking at didi for 4 years at big money that comes with the added bonus of losing close to a first round pick for a non star player.

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Didi's OBP in yankee stadium and a lineup surrounded by stars each of the last 5 years- .318, .304, .318, .335, and .298 this year. Can't wait to see how that fits in this ballpark when he's not protected by judge, stanton, sanchez, etc. Should really transition well to being the star of the team in a huge ballpark and not getting pitches to hit as frequently.

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Similar batters through age 28 for Didi according to baseball reference. Desmond, JJ Hardy, Brandon Phillips, Stephen Drew, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Blauser, Juan Uribe, Khalil Greene, Aaron Hill, and, wait for it, neil walker. Can't wait to pay that star money long term on a small market team. Should go swimmingly.

Andrus similar batters through age 29- Alan Trammell, Dick Bartell, Fregosi, Garry Templeton, Rollins, Frankie Croseti, Furcal, something named granny hamner, renteria, and jose reyes.

[rmc523]

the reasons arent baseless. Its that he isnt a star even in that ballpark and lineup and youre trying to pay him like he is even though his numbers will assuredly go down as he ages and leaves a great ballpark and lineup for a terrible ballpark and lineup. Elvis Andrus if he opts out for 2 years and whatever amount of money it will take to make it worth it to opt out is a much better option than paying a non star who has put up an .800 OPS once in his career star money for 4 years.

Andrus would be the perfect fit in this ballpark as our leadoff man. Didi would lose a significant amount of his power and doesnt have speed to impact the game in other ways like Andrus does. Neither of them are stars. Gimme andrus for 2 years and then go after Lindor when he comes up. You dont pay guys long term big money who arent stars. Simple as that.

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and one of them likely wouldnt result in a loss of draft picks. Andrus on pace to hit .300, 15 hr's, 35 2b's, ops around .800, and steal 35 bases at an 80% clip. He's a more impactful hitter in the context of our lineup and home ballpark. Id pay him 15-20 million (whatever it would take to make it worth it for him to opt out) for 2 years before even looking at didi for 4 years at big money that comes with the added bonus of losing close to a first round pick for a non star player.

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Didi's OBP in yankee stadium and a lineup surrounded by stars each of the last 5 years- .318, .304, .318, .335, and .298 this year. Can't wait to see how that fits in this ballpark when he's not protected by judge, stanton, sanchez, etc. Should really transition well to being the star of the team in a huge ballpark and not getting pitches to hit as frequently.

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Similar batters through age 28 for Didi according to baseball reference. Desmond, JJ Hardy, Brandon Phillips, Stephen Drew, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Blauser, Juan Uribe, Khalil Greene, Aaron Hill, and, wait for it, neil walker. Can't wait to pay that star money long term on a small market team. Should go swimmingly.

Andrus similar batters through age 29- Alan Trammell, Dick Bartell, Fregosi, Garry Templeton, Rollins, Frankie Croseti, Furcal, something named granny hamner, renteria, and jose reyes.

Uh? You can't just tell him "hey we'll give you this if you opt out". I'm sure that would be some sort of rules violation.

Here's Andrus' contract situation:
2020 - $15.25M
2021 - $14.25M
2022 - $14.25M
Total - $47.75M (guaranteed)
2023 - $15M (vesting option)
Total - $58.75M (including vesting option)

So he's going to turn down a guaranteed $47.75M for the next 3 years, potentially $58.75M over 4, so that he can sign with us for maybe $30-40M over 2 years? Ok....