June Game Thread

[fish16]

ERA isnt the best stat obviously, but pretty awesome to see our rotation with urena and 4 other guys who have 2 years or less of legitimate MLB experience have a top 8 rotation in terms of starters ERA, and no real clear weak link given that their ERA's are 3.10, 3.53, 3.80, 4.14, and then pablo lopez at 4.52 with that number being mostly bloated from a 3 IP and 10 ER outing against the mets. The lineup still needs improvements, but with our pitching depth already and the fact that the best 2-3 of those guy might still be in the minors, this rebuild is looking incredibly positive right now.

- - - - - - - - - -

His 2017-2018 performances we're pretty similar. with a slight uptick in 2018 If he's still keeping up that kind of production I'd go 3 years $18 million a year. You say he's no longer ascending as a player, but he's literally improved his hitting for 5-years running. Obviously we'll see what he looks like coming back from injury, and that'll be a huge factor in what kinda deal he gets this offseason. You get his Age 30-32 years, that's not a huge risk, and I think best case scenario Devers is ready by that 3rd year of Didi's contract at which point you might be able to deal Didi if you want to.

Ya, obviously he would still be ascending in his age 24-29 seasons, but youre not paying him for those years, you're paying him for his age 30-33 seasons when statistically you expect guys to start descending from their peak. He's just not a needle mover in my opinion once he gets out of that ballpark and lineup, and you dont invest in the middle tier of free agency like that for that kind of money. Free agency is not an efficient use of money generally, but if you are going to use it to fill holes, you should be doing it for the high end guys for big money and then for the low end guys for small money who can make a bigger impact collectively for the same amount of money.

This is all just us spit balling on numbers, but say you can get Andrus for 10 million a year or so and then sign a few low risk bullpen arms and a few smart low money free agent bat signings which are available every year in free agency, and i think youd get much more value out of your 18 million a year than giving it all to Didi who is descending as a player and has only put up over an .800 OPS once in his entire career and the guy will be 30 years old next year.

Investing heavily in the middle tier of free agency as a small market team is just not a good use of a scarce resource. I wouldnt give a shit if we have a payroll in the upper 100 millions, but we're just not going to be in that tier if we are being realistic.

- - - - - - - - - -

and not to compare didi to starlin castro, but i said the same thing when Lou suggested re-signing castro to a mid level deal. Given the way the salary structure in baseball works for the first 6 years of a guys career and the surplus value you can get from those guys and other guys on smaller deals, it makes no sense to sign an above average free agent to a huge deal unless you project that they are still ascending as a player.

- - - - - - - - - -

He's having a bad year but a middle tier free agency guy i would give a decent amount of money to would be a guy like Jurickson Profar if he is non tendered before his last year of arbitration this offseason. He had a horrendous april but his numbers are regressing to his mean, and at 26 currently with a bunch of years missed due to injury, you can still project a little improvement over the life of the contract. Id give him 3 years 25 million before id give Didi 3 years 54 million, and I'd suspect they'd put up similar production over the course of the next 3 years.

[lou]

up to 8th in starters ERA and went from worst run differential to 23rd in the league since our low point

- - - - - - - - - -



that's a huge if though. He's literally only been over an .800 OPS once. And over his last 3 years, the best 3 years of his career, he is .814 in that great home hitters park and just a .767 OPS on the road. He would not be worth 18 million over 3 years for his age 30-33 seasons in this ballpark and in this lineup. Id take Andrus for 2 years 20-25 million over giving a guy who has only had over an .800 OPS once in his career 18 million for 3 straight years at a point in his career where he is no longer ascending as a player. Especially when you have options that we have invested in at the SS position in Devers, Johnson, and now Nunez who should be ready and under team control for 6 years within the time that contract would still be outstanding.

Who gives a shit about his OPS? 3.1, 2.7, 4, and 4.6 are his WAR totals last 4 seasons. IF he is back and healthy, his defense makes him a high floor probable 3 WAR player ages 30-33. There is nothing wrong with this. In fact, Didi likely becomes the best hitter in the organization as it's not like other Marlins position players are flashing consistent 3-4+ WAR potential.

Devers is 19 and 170 pounds wet. He's not going to be a difference maker for 4 years until he packs on some pounds. Osiris isn't even playing, and is likely an OF. Nunez hasn't had a professional PA. These guys are 2023.

You play to win the game. If he's healthy, he's perfect on a 3 year, maybe 4 year, deal if the price is right.

- - - - - - - - - -

Payroll is $35-40 million in 2020 with 20+ players already locked in. 5th lowest payroll in baseball is $91 million this season.

Chen is coming off the books which pays for arbitration raises. TV deal forthcoming. Maybe even naming rights.

They have the money to sign good players. Let's stop having battered wife syndrome over our love for cheap young players and build a team.

[fish16]

Who gives a shit about his OPS? 3.1, 2.7, 4, and 4.6 are his WAR totals last 4 seasons. IF he is back and healthy, his defense makes him a high floor probable 3 WAR player ages 30-33. There is nothing wrong with this. In fact, Didi likely becomes the best hitter in the organization as it's not like other Marlins position players are flashing consistent 3-4+ WAR potential.

Devers is 19 and 170 pounds wet. He's not going to be a difference maker for 4 years until he packs on some pounds. Osiris isn't even playing, and is likely an OF. Nunez hasn't had a professional PA. These guys are 2023.

You play to win the game. If he's healthy, he's perfect on a 3 year, maybe 4 year, deal if the price is right.

- - - - - - - - - -

Payroll is $35-40 million in 2020 with 20+ players already locked in. 5th lowest payroll in baseball is $91 million this season.

Chen is coming off the books which pays for arbitration raises. TV deal forthcoming. Maybe even naming rights.

They have the money to sign good players. Let's stop having battered wife syndrome over our love for cheap young players and build a team.

I give a shit about his OPS because he will not put up those WARs when he gets to this lineup and ballpark if he's only put up over an .800 OPS once in his career and you are getting him for a period of his career where he can expected to begin to decline in performance.

I'm fine with spending money and spending big money on free agents, just not on a guy who is above average who you are paying to be good to great. We could just disagree on how good he is. I dont think he's anything special as a player. He's a good player, not a great player, and well-run small market teams stick to strict dollar amounts based on how they evaluate a players ability. Not sticking to your evaluation of a players ability and signing him for the sake of signing a "big name" or to "prove something to your fans" is a horrendous way to build your team and spend your scarce money as a small market team. The middle tier of free agency (i.e. guys who are good but not great) is the least efficient way to spend in free agency. Not comparing Chen to Didi, but it's how you end up with Chen type deals. Middle tier free agents require you to pay a premium most of the time, and i never sign a contract where you know you are overpaying the second the deal is signed.

Him on a 1-2 year deal for that money you might be able to convince me because of how few long term contracts we have and how many of our guys are under team control, anything longer than that and its a poor use of resources. If you want to sign him to big money, do it for 2 years at a decent amount of money, then evaluate where you are after those 2 years and you can decide then whether you want to invest in him as he gets to his mid 30's at SS or you can see where the lindor (an actual star player) situation ends up after those 2 years, see where the current guys are that are already in the system, or maybe you draft a SS with our early first rounder next year.

And him becoming the best hitter in the organization doesnt mean anything when we have one of the worst group of hitting prospects in baseball. I just dont falter from the strategy of sticking to your plan and making sure every dollar spent is providing the most value out of that money. Bad teams spend money for the sake of spending money and "proving something" to a fanbase that has proven time and time again they dont give a shit about you spending money, they give a shit about winning. Andrus for 10 million for 2 years and then spending 8 million on bullpen arms or other low cost, low risk, high reward bats is going to get you more WAR out for that 18 million if you want to base it on WAR.

As for "Let's stop having battered wife syndrome over our love for cheap young players and build a team," as a small market team, overspending on a guy is the complete opposite way to build a good and complete team. He isnt an 18 million a year player for his age 30-33 seasons, and as a small market team you dont overpay a guy to prove something.

[Nick]

You've said it about 5 times, but it would be his 30-32 seasons.

2020: 30
2021: 31
2022: 32

[lou]

I give a shit about his OPS because he will not put up those WARs when he gets to this lineup and ballpark if he's only put up over an .800 OPS once in his career and you are getting him for a period of his career where he can expected to begin to decline in performance.

I'm fine with spending money and spending big money on free agents, just not on a guy who is above average who you are paying to be good to great. We could just disagree on how good he is. I dont think he's anything special as a player. He's a good player, not a great player, and well-run small market teams stick to strict dollar amounts based on how they evaluate a players ability. Not sticking to your evaluation of a players ability and signing him for the sake of signing a "big name" or to "prove something to your fans" is a horrendous way to build your team and spend your scarce money as a small market team. The middle tier of free agency (i.e. guys who are good but not great) is the least efficient way to spend in free agency. Not comparing Chen to Didi, but it's how you end up with Chen type deals. Middle tier free agents require you to pay a premium most of the time, and i never sign a contract where you know you are overpaying the second the deal is signed.

Him on a 1-2 year deal for that money you might be able to convince me because of how few long term contracts we have and how many of our guys are under team control, anything longer than that and its a poor use of resources. If you want to sign him to big money, do it for 2 years at a decent amount of money, then evaluate where you are after those 2 years and you can decide then whether you want to invest in him as he gets to his mid 30's at SS or you can see where the lindor (an actual star player) situation ends up after those 2 years, see where the current guys are that are already in the system, or maybe you draft a SS with our early first rounder next year.

And him becoming the best hitter in the organization doesnt mean anything when we have one of the worst group of hitting prospects in baseball. I just dont falter from the strategy of sticking to your plan and making sure every dollar spent is providing the most value out of that money. Bad teams spend money for the sake of spending money and "proving something" to a fanbase that has proven time and time again they dont give a shit about you spending money, they give a shit about winning. Andrus for 10 million for 2 years and then spending 8 million on bullpen arms or other low cost, low risk, high reward bats is going to get you more WAR out for that 18 million if you want to base it on WAR.

As for "Let's stop having battered wife syndrome over our love for cheap young players and build a team," as a small market team, overspending on a guy is the complete opposite way to build a good and complete team. He isnt an 18 million a year player for his age 30-33 seasons, and as a small market team you dont overpay a guy to prove something.

A 3 WAR player is worth $18 million a year (and this is ignoring the Marlins SS situation do they have replacement level players), and he's posted 4 WAR the last two years. If he's healthy, that's fine. Also, he probably wouldn't get that much.

Toronto, Baltimore, Detroit, Miami, and Texas might be the only teams needing a SS next year. Go down the standings and think about how each team has a good player or prospect.

Only those last two are spending money as they are potential contenders. Those first 3 are a total mess.

Whose bidding?

- - - - - - - - - -

And yes, I said the Marlins are a potential contender as the SP staff is real and 2 big bats make them interesting.

[fish16]

And Lou has said a 4 year deal which is what I’m opposed to. Which, as I said, would be his 30-33 years

- - - - - - - - - -

A 3 WAR player is worth $18 million a year (and this is ignoring the Marlins SS situation do they have replacement level players), and he's posted 4 WAR the last two years. If he's healthy, that's fine. Also, he probably wouldn't get that much.

Toronto, Baltimore, Detroit, Miami, and Texas might be the only teams needing a SS next year. Go down the standings and think about how each team has a good player or prospect.

Only those last two are spending money as they are potential contenders. Those first 3 are a total mess.

Whose bidding?

- - - - - - - - - -

And yes, I said the Marlins are a potential contender as the SP staff is real and 2 big bats make them interesting.

my entire point is that by signing andrus rather than him, you get a slightly lesser player at one position, sure, but an overall higher WAR for the 18 million you would be spending on Didi. That is literally my entire point. Im not saying Didi is bad, im saying there is a much better and more valuable way to spend those 18 million than a guy who is going to a time in his career where guys typically decline, is no longer going to be playing in one of the best ballparks and lineups in baseball, and has only had over an .800 OPS once in his career despite playing in a great hitting ballpark and great lineup for the last 4 years. If he can put up those numbers in this ballpark and in this lineup as a focal point of our offense rather than a complimentary piece to numerous allstars, sure, give him that money. He won't though, because this ballpark is a horrendous hitters park and he wont be hitting behind or in front of numerous all stars.

We do agree on the contending though. I thought they could be .500 next year but i could see them pushing for a wild card spot if this pitching keeps up the development the way it has thus far this year.

[lou]

I don't agree he is $18 million a year. Who is the comp? AJ Pollock didn't get that. Who is bidding on him next year? Tell me what contending teams need SS.

I already posted his neutral 2 years home/away splits. I reject calling him a Yankee Stadium anomaly.

Didi is really good, and they need him. A 3 year deal is ideal. But if its 4 and the price is right? No brainer.

[Nick]

I don't agree he is $18 million a year. Who is the comp? AJ Pollock didn't get that. Who is bidding on him next year? Tell me what contending teams need SS.

I already posted his neutral 2 years home/away splits. I reject calling him a Yankee Stadium anomaly.

Didi is really good, and they need him. A 3 year deal is ideal. But if its 4 and the price is right? No brainer.

What do you think he gets at 3 years then, lou?

[fish16]

I don't agree he is $18 million a year. Who is the comp? AJ Pollock didn't get that. Who is bidding on him next year? Tell me what contending teams need SS.

I already posted his neutral 2 years home/away splits. I reject calling him a Yankee Stadium anomaly.

Didi is really good, and they need him. A 3 year deal is ideal. But if its 4 and the price is right? No brainer.

That is my biggest objection then is just that dollar figure. So i guess we're just disagreeing on the extent to which he will get paid and whether that's worth it to us. And i posted his 3 year home away splits from his 3 best hitting years in the majors. He's an .814 OPS in 799 ab's in yankee stadium the last 3 years with 42 hr's there, as opposed to a .767 OPS on the road with 30 hr's in 2 more ab's on the road. And that's with playing a lot of games in good hitters parks like Toronto and Boston as well. I just dont think he puts up anywhere near those numbers in this lineup with this surrounding cast.

but ultimately it just comes down to the dollar amount for me, and maybe you can get him at a good amount given how free agency has gone the last few years. My bigger point is just the money needs to be spent efficiently as a small market team and under no circumstances do you spend money with one of the bigger reasons being to "prove something" to a fanbase who just doesnt care what you spend, they care if you win. As i've said for the last 2 years, i care about the process of team building more than anything, with the thought being that over time a team built with the right process will eventually become good even if each individual move might not work out.

[tjfla]

U guys realize(like lou keeps saying) we have tons of cash to spend right? They have to spend it on something why not Didi? I prefer Rendon's bat but could use a SS

Exactly what Philly did 3 years ago. Signed Santana/SP to crazy deals because they had to spend it on something

[fish16]

U guys realize(like lou keeps saying) we have tons of cash to spend right? They have to spend it on something why not Didi? I prefer Rendon's bat but could use a SS

Exactly what Philly did 3 years ago. Signed Santana/SP to crazy deals because they had to spend it on something

the phillies havent finished over .500 since 2012. perhaps following their team building strategy isnt the best course of business.

[tjfla]

Funniest part of this discussion is IF Miami doesn't sign any FA and has a payroll of 40 million then people will cry that they didn't spend 50 million BUT if they sign Didi and Paxton to deals and have an 80 million dollar payroll people will cry that they overpaid

[fish16]

you build your team to get the most value out of the money you are going to spend. you dont spend money for the sole sake of spending money. Youre trying to extract every last penny of value out of the money you spend. im not opposed to spending money, they should absolutely sign a few bats this offseason, im opposed to spending money on the wrong bats for the sake of spending money and for the purpose of "proving" something, whatever the hell that means.

- - - - - - - - - -

Funniest part of this discussion is IF Miami doesn't sign any FA and has a payroll of 40 million then people will cry that they didn't spend 50 million BUT if they sign Didi and Paxton to deals and have an 80 million dollar payroll people will cry that they overpaid

because if they sign didi and paxton to long term deals that pay them a combined 40 million for anything longer than 2 years, they did overpay. Wanting them to spend money and not wanting them to foolishly spend money arent mutually exclusive.

[rmc523]

saving money because spending money for the sake of spending money on veterans is an awful way to run a franchise. You dont spend money on a guy who you know isnt worth it at the time for the sake of proving something to your fanbase.

- - - - - - - - - -



I agree. I just think didi for what he will get is not a good use of it. I prefer stop gaps or shorter term deals unless the player is actually worth the money. Id sign Ozuna for 4 years, and Andrus and Abreu for 2.

- - - - - - - - - -

im not saying them signing Didi is an automatic no from me, im basing my opinion on what i think he will get as a free agent coming from the yankees. For the right price im fine with it. My point is you dont say "we need to sign X, y, and Z" regardless of price. That's how you get into the situation where you're giving guys like Chen big money. Every single deal needs to be with the overall strategy in mind. You do not overpay for the sake of saying you signed free agents to your fans. that's how bad teams do business. You continue to build the right way and the fans will come back when your good team building strategy works out over the long term.

Signing a "werth" type guy isnt worth it if it is for the sole purpose of trying to show your fans that you are committed. Idk how many times we have to go through this before we realize the only way we will draw fans back here is with a good team. And i dont think signing Didi for what I think he will get is the best or quickest way to make us into a good team.

The Werth type of deal is for a big name you overpay to show things are different - but only if the player is "werth" it. You don't just pick Joe Schmoe player and overpay just to say you signed someone. It's for the right guy.

I think you can have TJS and come back with a strong arm.

Yes, look at Jose.

[fish16]

The Werth type of deal is for a big name you overpay to show things are different - but only if the player is "werth" it. You don't just pick Joe Schmoe player and overpay just to say you signed someone. It's for the right guy.



Yes, look at Jose.

I get the werth comparison, but they are in a different category money wise. Also, given that they had just moved there a few years prior, they arent in the position we are in where it is completely unreasonable to expect fans to come out to our ballpark simply because we signed some free agents. How many times do we have to sign guys or make "go for it" moves in order to try to bring fans out only for it to remain the same. Marlins fans arent coming out because they spent money. they are only coming out if we win. If there was a chance that signing this guy all of a sudden brings out fans, and that in turn gives you more revenue and a higher payrol in future years, then id be fine with that, but unless the move is directly contributing to winning in the most direct way possible, this situation isnt at all comparable to Washington's at that time. Their payroll in the year prior to that was also just 2 million less (went from 66 million in 2010 to 68 in 2011) the next year when Werth was on the team, so im assuming they spent that money once a few high priced guys came off their books, not in order to bring out fans.

I'd also argue that the Jayson Werth deal was horrendous for them. He had 2 years out of the 7 in which he both stayed healthy and performed well. He didnt vault them into contention, Bryce Harper and Strasburg did, as did Scherzer.

- - - - - - - - - -

To add to what i said, the nationals were .500 in Werth's first year, and didnt start making the playoffs until 2012, which is not coincidentally the first year they had both Harper and Strasburg on the team and healthy. Id venture a guess that the nats could have produced much more value out of Werth's money by signing a collection of guys to reasonable deals that produce value relative to their salary rather than Werth who was only healthy and good for 2 out of his 7 years under that contract.