2024 Game Thread

[Namaste]

:popcorn:

[lou]

i never said "it's fine." I said bitching about michael lorenzon not signing here when the rotation was already completely decimated was a waste of time. And i was right because there was no signing that was making up for the complete devastation they had in our rotation. A bullpen of Faucher, Nardi, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller, and Veneziano/Mcmillan is a truly awful bullpen. Going into next season with that being the bullpen would be a giant mistake.

this team is not signing significant bats. there is no desperate money issue here. any bats they add would be cost controlled long term pieces. so yes, there is plenty of room to both add bats as well as spend on a couple bullpen arms that would provide stability in the early months of the year plus give them potentially a few pieces to deal in july. obviously bats are a priority. ive never said anything to the contrary. But adding cost controlled long term bats AND spending on making the bullpen better are not incompatible. Relying on that group of relievers is a really fucking dumb idea. it is the lee stone of bullpen construction. and it will go very poorly.

Faucher, Nardi, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller, Veneziano, and McMillian - 5.3 WAR in 2024. Would be the # 8 bullpen in baseball in 2024. If they do half that, 22nd in baseball. Which is not "truly awful." Just below average. Only Marlins fans could have the # 1 bullpen in baseball 2023 and 2024 combined, have a ton of viable options who are fine, and be so down on it.


And I would love the bold to be true for this organization. A viable 2nd lefty would genuinely be a good get over say Baumann or Petersen for the last spot, even if those guys are fine to keep.

I'll say it again - Angels have Neto, T. Ward, and B. Burke which is a SS, right handed CF, and lefty reliever. Blow them away. That's 5, 2 and 2 years of control, and combined 6.6 WAR last year and will cost $9m total next year. Blow out the farm, Angels suck and headline that with Noble, Serna, Head/Morlando/Johnson, and 3 more guys outside the top 10 prospects. That is really hard for them to pass up for just Neto as Ward don't get too much with only 2 years of control and Burke is solid reliever only and not going to get a Scott return down the road.

Payroll $74m:

Fortes, ____ ----> Ramirez
Burger, Bride ----> DDLS
Edwards, Otto
NETO
Norby
Stowers, Dane ----> Martorella, Marsee
WARD, Sanoja
Sanchez

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Weathers, Max ----> Eury, Snelling, Mazur
Faucher, Bender, Tinoco/Cronin, Oller (AAA - McMillian, Maldonado, Petersen, Bellozo)
Nardi, Burke, Veneziano (AAA - Simpson)


That's the kind of move that could be a lightning bolt as Bruce does spend $90m and this is SCREAMING for a free agent 3B/LF to kick someone to AAA there and the rest can be moved to a bridge catcher.

So that loops back to Nick - are they going to do something like this, as there will be a cost in prospects at a minimum. I would not give 1 fuck giving up Noble, Serna, and another strong FV45+ top 10 guy and three more guys in top 10-20 (excluding Mack) if they some long term bats.

[Todd]

One thing I disagree with lou on is Cabrera. I think he is a sell high player.

There's something there but...like, he might have the most hittable fastball in baseball and it drags down the rest of his secondary stuff.

To put it in perspective, the average exit velocity is 4 MPH fewer and OPS against 200 points lower on Bellozo's 4 seam compared to Cabrera despite being 8 MPH slower.

And that also limits his options as a power reliever. His sinker isn't good either.

He is so perplexing. But he has a weirdly solid finish to the year along with control seasons that they might get a team to overpay for.

[Nick]

Cabrera is a true wild card for sure, I'm not sure we'd be actually selling high with him dealing him this offseason, but maybe we would be.

I've always been a huge fan of his, but it's been quite a while now and he still hasn't put it together. I think I'm still in the camp of holding on to him and hoping he turns into the ace I think he could be. Is he a top 5 pitcher for us going into next season, though? I guess yes, until Eury comes back, but I'd have Weathers, Luzardo and Garrett in front of him.

[lou]

One thing I disagree with lou on is Cabrera. I think he is a sell high player.

There's something there but...like, he might have the most hittable fastball in baseball and it drags down the rest of his secondary stuff.

To put it in perspective, the average exit velocity is 4 MPH fewer and OPS against 200 points lower on Bellozo's 4 seam compared to Cabrera despite being 8 MPH slower.

And that also limits his options as a power reliever. His sinker isn't good either.

He is so perplexing. But he has a weirdly solid finish to the year along with control seasons that they might get a team to overpay for.

Sure. I am fine if anyone wants to say he isn't going to be a frontline starter (mainly because of control issues) - to be clear my position is there is something there and he's going to be a player wherever he lands whether it's the rotation or bullpen.

I too have thought maybe he's the one to trade? For instance, he seems to always demolish the Rockies in Colorado. B. Doyle and McMahon are perfect for the Marlins even if Doyle was over his head this year. McMahon bails him out money (which is in Bruce's budgets), so Cabrera and another arm or two (and this is a good one, like Snelling as Doyle shows a lot of hit upside and the defense is perfect) in the minors becomes interesting quickly, etc. I'd probably keep him as the sky is the limit, but I'd get a move like that as part of a larger package to get them 2 big time arms for at least 2 big time bats (they have liked Rodgers in the past too - platoon SS for 1 year with you know who? Rodgers is a lefty killer). I wouldn't phrase this as a sell high - was this a high? I think most would say no.

The counterpoint to this is, his fastball might be his 5th best pitch (even if used 2nd most). The changeup is outrageously good. The slider should be a real weapon but the pitch mix was "interesting" this year with that coming in and out so they are doing something. We'll have to see if that sticks. Maybe that is a "health" cut even if good which would be disappointing. The curve is a good 3rd pitch in any evaluation even if not elite. That's fine. I fully agree the fastball/sinker are holding Cabrera back to an extent, but if either gets figured out to an average (or even acceptably below average) pitch, he's a 1/2 starter with everything else versus a frustrating walk happy mid/back rotation guy who randomly dominates.

I'd also quib he throws the changeup so outrageously hard, it can effectively operate as what a fastball historically does. i.e., the set up the offspeed stuff. His FB/Sinker are 96 and change 93 which is silly. The curve is 84, and slider 89. His changeup is genuinely a velocity change from this breaking options, and unique as its one of the hardest changeups all over. If he's going to throw the change that hard, he has the velocity gaps in pitch types where he can be a changeup, curveball, and slider pitcher as he has the 3 pitches without a fastball. Of course, this is where "bad control" and "slider usage dropped to 8.5%" come in where yes I agree there needs to be the FB/sinker somewhere to likely survive in being a great SP.... but he may not need that to be a changeup, curveball, and show me-slider and fastball 2.5 pitch reliever. There are no reliever limitations here for me with that kind of set up if there is enough control (ala Scott level control 23/24 range. Not great, but everything else is unhittable so it works). Hence, why when I see a low $2m arbitration projection for him for 2025, you get to a 5/$30m + 6th year option comp quickly (that's 1-2 free agency years), and paying Cabrera as an "above average" reliever versus a starting pitcher is a perfect "buy low" opportunity as full circle - there's something here.

Ultimately, he's a keep for me for at least another year as I think they are tapping into this pitch mix with larger changeup usage (let's get that over 40% and not at 33%, use the curve/slider 35% of the time and not 30%+, and decrease the FB/sinker to 25% versus 36%+. These are the tweaks to figure out. It's basically throw the changeup more and 3-5 more sliders a game) and maybe some control comes with age. His walks were down a lot this year and he didn't sacrifice many whiffs. Maybe you are right and the lack of a FB kills him, but this is a jumping off point for me. I have been killed before on enthusiasm levels like this (this is where we say HERMIDA) but I love this guy.


Good discussion post Todd. I agree - perplexing but I am a buyer. Maybe they can extract more value via trade than keeping. We shall see.

[lou]

Cabrera is a true wild card for sure, I'm not sure we'd be actually selling high with him dealing him this offseason, but maybe we would be.

I've always been a huge fan of his, but it's been quite a while now and he still hasn't put it together. I think I'm still in the camp of holding on to him and hoping he turns into the ace I think he could be. Is he a top 5 pitcher for us going into next season, though? I guess yes, until Eury comes back, but I'd have Weathers, Luzardo and Garrett in front of him.

This is a floor vs ceiling discussion.

Weathers is kind of a lefty version of Cabrera with a good changeup and sweeper, and weaker fastball and sinker offerings. But the difference for me is Cabrera is throwing that changeup hard and Weathers has velocity but only on the fastball and sinker which are not great. He's a medium step back from Cabrera in this regard as Cabrera has the singular best pitch. Weathers may have a higher floor (walks and health) but the ceiling isn't close. I am a ceiling guy in most circumstances. I would take Cabrera in a heartbeat.

Garrett is a bit more interesting as the lack of walks is dramatic and a huge plus, but he is all slider and doesn't have a 2nd above average pitch. Even if he has 2-3 more pitches (most likely sinker and change) that are acceptably above average, his lower velocity across the board gets into the danger zone fast if he loses anything. Cabrera's ceiling is much higher everywhere. It is genuinely crazy his changeup is faster than Garrett's fastballs. Garrett has a larger floor than Weathers with the walks and genuinely could turn into the Marlins "Lugo" who throws 5-6 pitches so the confusion element trumps the stuff, but I still would go with Cabrera as it looked like a step forward once he got back. Garrett is a perfect change of pace to all the velocity righties though. I expect him around awhile.

We'll have to see what Luzardo shows up, but end of 21-23 Luzardo is an outstanding pitcher and yes I am all-in on him when fully healthy.

Cabrera is 4 to me after Eury, Sandy, and Luzardo in that order. Garrett and Weathers would be next also in that order. If they do a dedicated 5 man rotation, I don't think it's a question if Cabrera is in there even if we debate is he 2, 3, 4, or 5 on that list. Max goes to AAA to work on his changeup, or they just pull the plug and install him as the closer which he'd probably be great at.

[Nick]

This is a floor vs ceiling discussion.

Weathers is kind of a lefty version of Cabrera with a good changeup and sweeper, and weaker fastball and sinker offerings. But the difference for me is Cabrera is throwing that changeup hard and Weathers has velocity but only on the fastball and sinker which are not great. He's a medium step back from Cabrera in this regard as Cabrera has the singular best pitch. Weathers may have a higher floor (walks and health) but the ceiling isn't close. I am a ceiling guy in most circumstances. I would take Cabrera in a heartbeat.

Garrett is a bit more interesting as the lack of walks is dramatic and a huge plus, but he is all slider and doesn't have a 2nd above average pitch. Even if he has 2-3 more pitches (most likely sinker and change) that are acceptably above average, his lower velocity across the board gets into the danger zone fast if he loses anything. Cabrera's ceiling is much higher everywhere. It is genuinely crazy his changeup is faster than Garrett's fastballs. Garrett has a larger floor than Weathers with the walks and genuinely could turn into the Marlins "Lugo" who throws 5-6 pitches so the confusion element trumps the stuff, but I still would go with Cabrera as it looked like a step forward once he got back. Garrett is a perfect change of pace to all the velocity righties though. I expect him around awhile.

We'll have to see what Luzardo shows up, but end of 21-23 Luzardo is an outstanding pitcher and yes I am all-in on him when fully healthy.

Cabrera is 4 to me after Eury, Sandy, and Luzardo in that order. Garrett and Weathers would be next also in that order. If they do a dedicated 5 man rotation, I don't think it's a question if Cabrera is in there even if we debate is he 2, 3, 4, or 5 on that list. Max goes to AAA to work on his changeup, or they just pull the plug and install him as the closer which he'd probably be great at.

I'm not talking ceiling vs. floor. Obviously Cabrera has a higher ceiling, but if I'm putting money on who has a better season in 2025. I'm putting money on Weathers.

Next season MLB and AAA Opening Day rotations have to be the following, right? (barring trades of course)

MLB

1. Sandy
2. Luzardo
3. Weathers
4. Cabrera
5. Garrett

AAA
1. Max
2. Bellozo
3. Snelling
4. Mazur
5. Dax Fulton? Will he be back?

Then Eury whenever he returns, and I'm sure these 10 will be ravaged by injuries by then. lol

[lou]

The MLBTR arb projections came out, and summarily, this is $61-62m depending on what they renew 0-2nd year players with.


This is the keep everyone of interest team at that price (except Pereda, Brujan, and Hill which would be the blank lines but I just can't imagine):

C - Fortes, ____
1B - Burger, Bride
2B - Edwards, Otto
SS - _____
3B - Norby
LF - Stowers, Dane
CF - ______, Sanoja
RF - Sanchez
(AAA - Ramirez, Banfield, DDLS, Serna, Pauley, Mesa Jr.)

SP Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers
RHP Faucher, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller, Baumann
LHP Nardi, Veneziano
(AAA/AA - Max, McMillian, Maldonado, Mazur, Simpson, Bellozo, Petersen, Fulton)
(IL - Eury)

Dead Money - Garcia, Go


As a note, Sandy, Garcia, and Go is roughly 50% of this money.

[lou]

I'm not talking ceiling vs. floor. Obviously Cabrera has a higher ceiling, but if I'm putting money on who has a better season in 2025. I'm putting money on Weathers.

Next season MLB and AAA Opening Day rotations have to be the following, right? (barring trades of course)

MLB

1. Sandy
2. Luzardo
3. Weathers
4. Cabrera
5. Garrett

AAA
1. Max
2. Bellozo
3. Snelling
4. Mazur
5. Dax Fulton? Will he be back?

Then Eury whenever he returns, and I'm sure these 10 will be ravaged by injuries by then. lol

Agree with bold!!!!

I'm an optimist though - I go Cabrera as the team's 2nd best SP next year (Sandy) and it comes together with a murderous 3 right hander set up moving forward. I will dream.


I'd put Monteverde as the 5th (will be exposed in R5 but not gonna happen) - Fulton will be in AA and nowhere near ready. I'd also swap Garrett and Weathers but that's whatever.

[Nick]

Agree with bold!!!!

I'm an optimist though - I go Cabrera as the team's 2nd best SP next year (Sandy) and it comes together with a murderous 3 right hander set up moving forward. I will dream.


I'd put Monteverde as the 5th (will be exposed in R5 but not gonna happen) - Fulton will be in AA and nowhere near ready. I'd also swap Garrett and Weathers but that's whatever.

AA?

1. White
2. Noble
3. Dax
4. Jacob Miller
5. Karson Milbrandt

[Nick]

Mel Stottlemyre Jr. let go. Seems like a huge mistake.

[fish16]

Mel Stottlemyre Jr. let go. Seems like a huge mistake.

just came here to say that. I would put a large amount of money on gabe kapler coming in as the new manager. Writing has been on the wall for a while. Hopefully not though. Stotlemeyer going, if it was a team decision, seems like a very shortsighted move.

[Todd]

I would assume he had a good working relationship with Skip and will follow him. Granted he has been here across multiple managers so who knows.

They seem to be remaking the organization from the ground up.

[fish16]

bendix made it pretty clear that they wont be spending money btw, so those pipe dreams can stop. When you're asked about spending money and you immediately pivot to the cliche of rebuilding the organization from the ground up, it's pretty clear nothing is changing. Not saying it's not necessary to rebuild the infrastructure of the organization, but we heard the same bullshit with jeter and denbo. It's a way to pivot from a question of spending like a major league organization.

I will say that it is super annoying that bendix clearly planned to blow up this team from the moment he got here, but didnt have the stomach to do it right away. instead, they did nothing all offseason last year, got destroyed by injuries early, and then blew up the team the second they had a disastrous april and could theoretically justify it. a lot of this stuff is stuff they could have done last offseason and probably would have been in a better position right now had they done so. See luzardo.

[Nick]

bendix made it pretty clear that they wont be spending money btw, so those pipe dreams can stop. When you're asked about spending money and you immediately pivot to the cliche of rebuilding the organization from the ground up, it's pretty clear nothing is changing. Not saying it's not necessary to rebuild the infrastructure of the organization, but we heard the same bullshit with jeter and denbo. It's a way to pivot from a question of spending like a major league organization.

I will say that it is super annoying that bendix clearly planned to blow up this team from the moment he got here, but didnt have the stomach to do it right away. instead, they did nothing all offseason last year, got destroyed by injuries early, and then blew up the team the second they had a disastrous april and could theoretically justify it. a lot of this stuff is stuff they could have done last offseason and probably would have been in a better position right now had they done so. See luzardo.

To be fair, he pretty much dodged every question from the press conference, not just the payroll question, but yeah it doesn't seem promising.