2024 Game Thread

[lou]

You can disagree all you want. You are wrong.

You are basically a flat Earther. You been making the same multi paragraph posts with depth charts and potential money for multiple years across two ownership groups and have never been right.

Evidence slaps you in the face but you believe.

It's a bit sad.

Huh? Evidence, like they spent $110m in 2023 on payroll, and payroll opens around $65m in 2025 needing probably 4 and only 4 players? They actually spent the $110m, and yes that was a lot at the deadline w/ Bell and Robertson really bloating that figure versus opening day, but they overall spent it so there is some precedent here Bruce will turn up the dial if they think they can make the playoffs. For me? I think they have the SP pieces if healthy to make a run, but maybe they feel otherwise due to the injuries, they need another year to fully get healthy, and they need a year for Ramirez, Mack, DDLS, Edwards, Serna, Norby, Stowers, and Sanoja to really cement themselves on the MLB roster which likely all happen at points in 2025.

I'm not saying they will sign a $80-130m free agent - likely they get priced out like they did with Castellanos who they seemingly really wanted and Philly went with an extra year, etc. - but there is a world we can have some hope that the stars align with a market collapse as Montgomery, Chapman, Snell, and Bellinger ranged from effectively $45m-$80m deals as teams are sometimes more frugal now for the "second tier" free agents and a free agent of those prices easily aligns with risk tolerance of bringing in someone at that level and not a 7/$177m Swanson which is a different beast. Adames is having an awesome year and may be pricing himself out of this and LAD/DET may give him that $150m+ deal, but maybe they don't. And as mentioned, the only teams that don't have longterm SS players or viable prospects, combined with needing to spend money on other needs, are LAD, DET, and MIA, and then there are some maybes like SEA/SD may be on Kim, or some team signs Adames/Kim and then trades a 2B/SS/3B to make room for them.

We can't talk about baseball on a baseball message board?

[lou]

you act like those players signed for pennies on the dollar on a 1 year deal.

Chapman signed for 3 years 54 million (18 per year) with opt outs after each year.
Snell signed for 2 years 62 million.
Montgomery signed for 1 year 25 million with an easy vesting option for next year at 20 million.
Bellinger signed for 3 years 80 million.

they have no intention of signing anyone for those amounts. No matter how many times you post the depth chart with 8 paragraphs of analysis.

Im also not even criticizing them for not signing those guys. i dont think its prudent to sign deals like that given our salary restrictions. if we are going to start spending some money, it should be on guys they already have, and do it early. Internal guys signed early is how almost the entire braves decade of success was built. Signing 30+ year old free agents for 20+ million for their declining years is a terrible way for this franchise to operate. Then, and only then, you can make smarter signings like the rays did to fill holes in the short term.

Those contracts are very cheap? And align to what the Rays would do? See Eflin's free agent contract which is a drop below those besides Montgomery. Garcia was in those ranges. Soler + Segura + swap to Bell which raised payroll was in those ranges too. The Marlins have more depth now where they don't need 8 pieces, they need 4. They can afford 1 of those guys at a $65m payroll needing 4 players this offseason. Will they do it? I don't know, but why can't we chat about baseball on a baseball message board? There is no salary restrictions when the only expensive player on the team for 3 seasons is Sandy, and *maybe* Eury becomes very expensive in 4 years. So this all goes back to what I just said - do they think they are ready to contend, or do they want a healthy P year and let all the bats get their feet wet. I want to be an optimist and say they should be ready enough, but jokes aside, they may be circling 2026 as they may internally feel they want everyone 1 more year advanced which you can imagine as they are young

[lou]

im fine trying out guys because its absurd how many injuries we have had in our rotation this year, but i can legitimately name like 3 guys on the pitching staff off the top of my head currently.

I saw Garrett and weathers are supposed to maybe make a return for a little to end the year. Cool i guess. What is the projected rotation for next year at this point? Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, with other options being Meyer and Eury when he comes back probably in July, Mazur should get close to full year in AAA next year but i guess is an option. Im probably missing someone injured right now, but while it looks good on paper with the top 5, we've said that for years, and as much as we talk about trading an arm like Luzardo (with way limited value now), honestly at this point we need a mid rotation innings eating type stabilizer for next year even without dealing someone currently. Mark redman 2003 would be the perfect addition for next year. He's probably not an option right now though as a 50 year old.

I dont think they have the MLB ready depth to deal a guy right now without making a significant free agent signing on a 1 year deal if not 2 of them. and that's without any further injuries. So the talk of dealing pitching depth for arms, while eventually a reality with Snelling, Mazur, and then the next wave of White and Meyer, that's probably a year away at the earliest.

Without that, next year is probably a cubs 2014 type year (we dont have anywhere near that type of high end talent) where we have intriguing pieces but service time games and realistic time lines mean we are a year away.

They will 100% play service time games or they wont be mlb ready with Ramirez and DDLS, plus guys like VMJR, Serna, Mack, Sanoja, and others are a year away at best. And as much as lou wants to will it into existence, they arent signing a major free agent, let alone more than 1. So we are looking at 2026 in my opinion for a team that is legitimately intriguing, though next year should obviously be a lot more fun with guys coming back from injury and young guys making their debut.

Let's unpack this. A lot going on. Mostly good analysis.

They are bringing in interesting arm talent with especially McMillian, Oller, and Veneziano and these guys may stick for a bit. You should watch Oller tonight. He has a really interesting slurve and FB gets some real movement. There is something here I think. I'm expecting this opening day for the 40 man today:

SP - Sandy, Luzardo/Free Agent, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers
RHP - Faucher, McMillian, Cronin, Tinoco(OOO), Oller(OOO)
LHP - Nardi, Veneziano
AAA - Simpson, Mazur, Maldonado, Bellozo/____, _____, _____ (+ Fulton)
=20 (+Eury on IL)

Effectively, Bender's days may be numbered to me (as he is in arbitration and that saves $500k to move him, etc.), as it is likely preferable to carry two guys who can eat multiple innings in the bullpen (in this hypothetical, Oller and Veneziano). The emergence of McMillian and Tinoco who both objectively look pretty good does make Bender (or Faucher or Cronin) expendable. I would try and upgrade Bellozo but I am fine with the other names. And that's a credit to Bendix for sure. Practically, this might be a 6 man rotation with Weathers to open the year as everyone has been hurt, and then see what happens once April is over and switch some guys (Sandy/Luzardo) to a normal schedule, and maybe keep everyone else on a 6 man rotation schedule for built in off days or someone goes to the pen. If they trade Bender before the Rule V, one of those blank lines is probably Baumann/Soriano/Munoz/Bachar/etc., but optimistically they can improve on that slot.

Which leads into your point about trading Luzardo. I have said this so many times, but if they trade a SP, they have to sign one. This goes for Sandy too if Todd gets his wish. They probably have the innings for next year without doing anything and just tweaking the back of pen arms/inventory starters like they do every year, but they can't really afford to lose a SP and not immediately replace. This is the banging the drum comment - if they trade Luzardo to save the $6m bucks and get 1 club controlled young bat back which would easily happen (and yes I agree Luzardo's value may be depressed versus trading him pre injury but no sense beating that dead horse), they then would have to spend that same money on a lesser SP to just make up the innings and pray Cabrera and Max take the step forward so the SP doesn't torpedo down without Luzardo as he is good. This is a tough problem for Bendix if no major bats are coming in FA.

If they keep Ramirez and DDLS down till April 15th or so, they get a year of service time and they'd still get 500+ PA at the MLB level. I'm not sure what the "service time games" here is when they can effectively get a full season, combined with constant comments they have to operate like the Rays and be smart, but then we get annoyed when the Marlins keep guys down to to operate like the Rays and be smart? Big picture, I think they will call them up mid April if they think they are ready (this secures a year and creates a Super2 which is fine as the year matters most), but is DDLS' 30% K rate since coming to the Marlins a genuine problem and he needs to stay down some more, and how is Ramirez' defense where is he ready to catch say 50-60 games immediately (and 1B/DH the rest). I think they may genuinely want to work on DDLS offspeed pitch recognition and Ramirez defense for a bit. They are both very young so they have time - and this goes to your last point about 2026. They could open with Dane on the roster for April and sign a FA catcher for 1 year, and that may be a real benefit to everybody here. I don't think this one is a problem.

I'll say it again - I do not expect them to sign Adames to a $150-175m contract, but I think it gets interesting if the market collapses ala last year's 2nd tier FA and maybe he (or Kim) is more along the lines of an $75-125m deal which they can afford with this core which is cheap for years and years. And they can *really* afford this if Sandy is moved ala Todd's wish.

And finally, yes I agree they may be circling 2026 and not want to "spend money a year early." Which then circles back to, only FA arms will make sense in free agency after this year, so we're at as "Plan A" trading multiple SP (ala Todd saying Luzardo and Sandy) for all young bats between now and August 1st, and then the natural reaction is they'll have to sign some SP to replace them unless Eury, White, Cabrera, Snelling, and Max become exactly who we want them to be by 2026.

Which I would agree makes practical sense, but when oh when are these guys ever going to really try and have a contending team day 1 as I'm sure some new excuse will pop up in the next 365 days. And ultimately, a team that has Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers, and Eury as their 1-7 rotation over the course of a season should be a contender. All we have is hope.

[lou]

i didnt even realize kitchen only started because cabrera was scrateched right before first pitch for yet another injury. Ideally, if we can have Cabrera, Meyer, and Nardi as our back end bullpen for the next several years, that is ideal. I would continue trotting meyer and cabrera out as starters untill it's clear it's not an option, but those 2 are ideally closers or back end arms with a full rotation of team controlled high talent guys. I dont want to seem like a cabrera hater but the guy cannot hold up as a starter, it's abundantly clear.were now going on 3 years straight of not only consistent injuries, but consistent arm injuries. And that's without even talking about the fact that he gets rocked the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup plus the awful control. I look towards 2026 and Sandy, Eury, Weathers, Snelling, Luzardo?, Mazur, and then probably close to White and Meyer time with Cabrera and Meyer in the bullpen looks really good to me, plus whatever other bullpen arms pan out in the next year. That's a great start.

The bold is right and reassess when Eury is back + seeing what happens with Mazur, Snelling, White, and Noble between now and July.


But yes you are a Cabrera hater and I hope it isn't because I like him and want to extend him. Cabrera had a migraine and was great this last start. He wasn't injured. His xFIP this year is 3.78 1st time through, 3.93 2nd time through, and 4.74 3rd time through, and his career rates are 3.84 first time through, 4.22 2nd time through, and 5.64 3rd time through. Yes Cabrera has been rocked his 3rd time through the lineup for his career, but very important to note it's not a 2nd time through thing as you mentioned above which is a big indicator of where is he going to end up, and he is really flashing some improvements. This is also coming off an analytical darling 2023. New pitch mix in 2024 which I have noted. They are workshopping him and figuring it out. This is similar to what they did with Scott who walked everyone when he got here, where *any* control improvement creates a legitimate monster. Cabrera has the 3rd or 4th most upside of any arm in the Marlins organization depending on what you think of White, so they need to explore him being a SP until he clearly isn't one. Ultimately, maybe Cabrera's health does make him a 60+ usage reliever, but Cabrera is trending to becoming a huge SP and you can see the flashes. His walks this year are down from 5.96 last year to 4.66 this year. He's lost some whiffs due to that (10.66 to 9.76 K/9), but that's a worthy exchange as he just needs guys to swing and the pitches will do the rest (i.e., not going to have a 1.52 HR/9 forever). He's taking a step forward to me and I feel they will figure out the right pitch mix. No more major arm injuries is the question and hopefully this is the springboard for him.

[lou]

I dont get why people want to keep Alcantra, who is close to being on the wrong side of 30 and in years the team isn't going to be competing. He is likely what brings the final pieces needed to be competitive.

I don't disagree with you SP need to be traded and after Luzardo, he makes the most sense for the reasons you've said (plus most expensive), but it's premature to know they won't be competitive. They have a very interesting collection of guys who can click. They should keep Sandy as if he rattles off 15 good starts, that midseason value in 2025 is going to be insane if the Marlins do need 3-4 bat pieces still, etc.

So I think saying if he is still with the club 8/1/25 as being is idiotic is a stretch as there are some unknowns, but I also think you shouldn't be getting some of the pushback from others as maybe this has to happens. For a hypothetical, if Eury, Cabrera, White, Garrett/Snelling/Weathers/Veneziano, and Max/Mazur/Noble/Oller, along with a free agent 1 year # 3/4 SP using the Sandy money, looks like a 2026 rotation - I get it. Maybe Sandy and Luzardo bring back all club controlled bats, and they're sitting at a sub $50m roster (including Stanton/Garcia money) with no holes and that creates what Fish16 wants - luxury upgrades ala the Rays signing Eflin, versus having to spend more, etc.

It is just a wait and see. The lowest common denominator right now is they need the three long term bats at SS, 3B, and a right handed CF/OF, and they need to do whatever it is they need to do to get those even if SP are sacrificed. Optimistically, this is Luzardo being traded for 1, Bruce doing that thing with the $$$ in FA, and then a reverse Yelich trade ala maybe Noble, Serna, and D. Head turn into "1" more play now guy which they may be able to easily handle depending on who else works out. It's just a wait and see past Luzardo who clearly has to go first with only 2 years of control left and no reason to extend him with what White/Noble are doing and just adding Snelling/Mazur/Oller/Veneziano as there are a lot of potential options here.

[lou]

Norby is a stud. 2 HRs today. Sanoja 2-2 in his first start.

The power is very fun but 32.5% whiffs. He needs to cut it down dramatically. Calling him a stud is premature as he is just barreling everything and that could drop quick as its a SSS. His expected slash is .232/.264/.449. This is actually encouraging to me though as he isn't being cheated on the slugging at all, but Norby isn't going to be very good unless those whiffs get closer to 25%. I'm hoping this is a get your feet wet sample size and some kind of .270/.330/.470 type line comes eventually.

[lou]

Edward Cabrera 7 scoreless with no ER’s and one walk, too.

Maybe he should always have migraines?

[Nick]

The power is very fun but 32.5% whiffs. He needs to cut it down dramatically. Calling him a stud is premature as he is just barreling everything and that could drop quick as its a SSS. His expected slash is .232/.264/.449. This is actually encouraging to me though as he isn't being cheated on the slugging at all, but Norby isn't going to be very good unless those whiffs get closer to 25%. I'm hoping this is a get your feet wet sample size and some kind of .270/.330/.470 type line comes eventually.

Norby 23.1 K% in 1770 PAs in the minors, 23.8% in 1115 PAs at AAA.

yeah you expect it to go up at the majors but not by 9%. It’s been only 114 PAs. You probably chalk it up to being over aggressive wanting to impress at the big league level. I’m not worried at all. The way he’s squaring up balls and hitting for power to all fields is the takeaway from what he’s done at the big league level so far.

[lou]

Norby 23.1 K% in 1770 PAs in the minors, 23.8% in 1115 PAs at AAA.

yeah you expect it to go up at the majors but not by 9%. It’s been only 114 PAs. You probably chalk it up to being over aggressive wanting to impress at the big league level. I’m not worried at all. The way he’s squaring up balls and hitting for power to all fields is the takeaway from what he’s done at the big league level so far.

I agree - he is being over aggressively and selling out for power. The what have you done lately response to that is 27.7% K rate in AAA this year (375 PA) and has ballooned at the MLB level so there is some concern there is some scouting report on him versus SSS but we'll see. The walks are also - this year - 12.5% in AAA and 4.4% in MLB, so something is going to give there soon too. I'm not too worried either - and let's add here a 95th sprint speed which is quite impressive (Edwards 77th, Otto 87th for perspective) and that's going to leg out some grounders or turn some gap hits into true doubles and triples on top to pad the slash with some extra bases. Once that K rate comes down a little and he takes a few more walks, it's just a question of what kind of power is left over. I think he should be a .260-.270 hitter with what we're seeing with an adequate enough BB rate. What's the slugging? Seems like trending up right now.

It's also very clear he is not a 3B. They have a real problem with Edwards at SS and Norby at 3B. Otto also leads the team with a 1.8 WAR right now (Edwards is better on a per PA basis, but Otto really has an argument as 2nd best position player on the season for guys still here as Jazz obviously also much better), and then there is Serna, so they may really have four viable 2B guys long term. When we're thinking about team construction, something may have to give here and quickly where two of them are turned into a different bat and quite frankly, maybe this should be an idea. Why can't they move Edwards/Serna/Norby and Otto (clearly Otto would be one of them here IMO as this is likely a "high" point for him and the others have more hit tool ceilings) for a right handed CF of similar value? That would be something and sets up Luzardo for a longterm SS/3B, and then they'd need just 1 more bat at the other of SS/3B. We can live without the 2B depth ultimately. Could be interesting to think 2B depth is cashed in now as I don't know how all 4 of these guys coexist on the roster unless they actually try Otto at SS which they should immediately and Norby settles into LF, which then creates other OF issues. (But Stowers is getting some CF time so I think that is suggestive of Norby moving eventually TBH.)

We'll see, but this is a lot of viable 2B and an equal value player position swap could make a lot of sense in a lower/medium type move.

[Todd]

I know you like Lopez and I get his WAR is 1.8 but it's all defense. He is a truly horrid hitter and for a team like the Marlins that are so light offensively, he is fine as a defensive replacement and bench infielder but he can't be a starter.

[Nick]

He’s going to be a solid utility guy like Berti for us, going forward.

[lou]

I know you like Lopez and I get his WAR is 1.8 but it's all defense. He is a truly horrid hitter and for a team like the Marlins that are so light offensively, he is fine as a defensive replacement and bench infielder but he can't be a starter.

Well first, nothing wrong with defensive production.

Second, I would anticipate him to be a bench infielder long term, however he has a .723 RHP split this year (.496 LHP). If he is this good defensively as a 90th+ percentile defender (and is also an 88th percentile base runner), he is a bit more than a bench guy and a great platoon starter against RHP if this is who he is. This is another one that falls into the context of look around the league and everyone are truly horrid hitters if this is the benchmark - a .723 OPS would be the 16th best primary 2B offensive production this season (100 PA minimum), and among guys who can hit right handers on the split (lowered to 50 PA), a .723 OPS is 19th vs RHP. So right now, Otto is one of the better 2B in the league against RHP as he is an average offensive starter, and then torpedos up as a 10th-13th range overall option league wide as he's a floor top 4 defensive player (Gimenez, Semien, Hoerner) and a floor top 10 base runner at the position. This isn't an oh I like him sort of thing - just look at what is happening with him compared to others around the league, and everything says this is real. His expected slash is .273/.316/.398 (which I note, is better than both Edwards and Norby) and he has a 17% K rate / .304 BABIP right now. Big contact rates and he is fast to take advantage of it. He is better than your comment IMO even if an acknowledged imperfect player which is my only point here. Maybe the defense, base running, or the K rate evaporate and then he becomes nothing fast, but I don't see that with what is happening. If someone does, I'd love a real analysis why as the he looks good out there and hacks enough contact to have a good enough average. If anything, I think the expected slugging is too high but that's also fine. If we scale things back, if he is a .650+ OPS player overall, he's going to be valuable with the defensive/base running in a Jorge Mateo/Jon Berti kind of way as a floor, etc. He's just a nice little player, and a potential benefit with 5 control years as he could also improve. He was a FV45 to start 2023, which is where Edwards landed too ya know.


But to swing this back around, this is the point. He's a nice little player even if not a pure starter. They might have four viable 2B with Edwards, Serna, Norby, and Otto. In the minors, they may also have multiple guys that end up as 2B as their best position if they even work out (C. Johnson, Pauley, Sanoja, G. Miller, Cappe, etc.). They have no viable SS, 3B, and need a right handed OF anywhere. My only point here is, we haven't talked about this idea much in the quest for where are the bats coming from, but given what looks to be four viable 2B as Edwards and Norby are having their moments and clearly not SS and 3B players, Otto does look real in at least a bench/platoon roll against righties, and Serna seems super fun from the minors slash/pedigree, exchanging one of these 4 for a similar SS/3B/Right handed OF makes a lot of sense. Or building a larger package. This is probably moving Serna as Norby can kick to a lot of LF, and Otto is more of a bench guy. Otto, Serna, and Norby are right handers, so Edwards becomes an obvious hold there. It's Serna. They just got him, but that trade was for Ramirez ultimately and just getting the next best value guy, and he can moved out already IMO based on what makes the most sense. That is of course, unless Otto or Serna can handle SS at a viable level and why I've been banging that play Otto at SS drum for months now and it really has to be every day unless the organization knows something.

[Namaste]

Stallings BABIP is 62 points higher than last year. The Marlins curse. He had the game winning RBI against the Tigers who are in the thick of the AL Wild Card race

[lou]

Stallings BABIP is 62 points higher than last year. The Marlins curse. He had the game winning RBI against the Tigers who are in the thick of the AL Wild Card race

He still sucks, but they *probably* need a bridge catcher for next year and he is likely one of the better names in FA as crazy as that sounds. Their big mistake at catcher here was not claiming Joey Bart, whose .800 expected OPS (he is over achieving at the .838, but .800 is still awesome AF for a catcher) will play over the defensive inabilities. That was a miss as bet on the pedigree every time.

The FA list is - [I]Elias D


Edit - the cut/paste free agent list killed the post, but basically after d'Arnaud and C. Kelly (who will get multi year deals I imagine), there is Jansen (who is regressing but still is probably OK), and after that not much where Stallings (and Barnes and G. Sanchez....) may be next best so the Marlins who likely need a bridge catcher for 2025, might have Stallings on the short list to get them to the summer as they have nothing and there is nothing else.

[lou]

Statcast has Fortes as the 11th-15th best defensive catcher (75th percentile defender baseball), but an extremely bad hitter of course. He's totally fine as a backup.

Actually really looking at this I'm not going to be surprised if they sign Kelly or Jansen for 2 years. They are going to need a catcher next year to bridge, and if Ramirez is deemed ready at catcher some time next summer (not exactly shredding AAA even if holding his own. He's young), they can just trade Fortes who is very viable as a backup. This is a sneaky short term need on top of the larger SS/3B/CF debates.

Maybe the catcher progression is something like this to really slow cook these guys in the minors which they should IMO:


2025 - Kelly/Jansen, Fortes (Ramirez, Banfield on 40 man, Mack not on 40 man)
-> Aug 1, 2025 - Fortes traded, and then Kelly/Jansen, Ramirez/Banfield (other of Ramirez/Banfield AAA, Mack still not on 40 man)

2026 - Kelly/Jansen, Ramirez (Banfield third catcher in AAA, Mack on 40 man)

2027 - Mack, Ramirez (Banfield last option year AAA as 3rd catcher, maybe Ignoffo has worked out and has to go on the 40)

2028 - 2031 Ramirez and Mack are controlled (third catchers will have to be Ignoffo and new draftees)

2032 - 2033 Mack is still controlled in this hypothetical

Ignoffo BTW is a catcher conversion that may be working out and may move to FV40 tier in the offseason god-willingly - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ry...ats?position=C




These guys have to of course work out, but something like this makes sense to me to get Mack 2 more full years in the minors as a really young guy, and this builds in much more runway for Ramirez and Banfield in AAA too as they may really need it.

In world the Marlins do not spend on Adames/Kim (which is likely this world), spending on a C for 2 years kind of is on-brand, and then Luzardo becomes a SS, something like Serna/2B and other prospects becomes a long term CF, and they bridge 3B with a Yoan Moncada/JD Davis type of 1 year reclamation project.


I bet this team is like $80m bucks basically and this looks like a Bruce Sherman team. The bolds would be the offseason moves/decisions.

C - Kelly/Jansen FA, Fortes (Ramirez and Banfield on 40, Mack upper minors)
1B - Burger, DDLS (Martorella and Berry upper minors)
2B - Edwards, Otto
SS - "Guy for Luzardo"
3B - Moncada/Davis for 1 year in FA, Bride (Pauley on 40)
LF - Norby, Stowers
CF - "Guy for Serna/2B and other prospects" (Sanoja and Mesa Jr. on 40)
RF - Sanchez (Dane on 40, and Marsee upper minors)
=19 Bats on 40 man with a few more who could bump them. Solid depth.

SP - Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, "FA 1 year SP", Max, Weathers (Mazur and Fulton on 40)
RHP - Faucher, McMillian, Cronin, Tinoco, Oller (Assortment of FB/SL RHP arms Bendix churns)
LHP - Nardi, Veneziano (Simpson on 40)
IL - Eury
=21 arms, and good depth if the inventory arms are sorted. The RHP batch could be Bellozzo, Curry, Peterson, Maldonado, etc.

Traded - Bender