2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

This 15 page debate about 2 players no longer on the team is lovely!

My bad.

[Nick]

At least we've somehow evolved that discussion onto the guy who is on our team now.

[Nick]

I've got more:

Brent Rooker Minor League K%: 28.5%
Jake Burger Minor League K%: 21.1%

[lou]

Big prospect dump from the Herald:


https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...290918099.html

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...291294955.html


TLDR

Norby - He wants to play 2B and they are hoping for an offensive 2B, with this dabbling at 3B just to see. They like the bat ---> My comment here who is the team's long term 2B then????

DDLS - Most power in the Marlins system since Stanton, must improve chase rate on off speed pitches but working on that. He’s a 1B who can play some 3B.

Serna - He might be able to stick at SS if he puts on some weight and gets stronger, but 2B is there and maybe LF. He is high energy and fiery. ---> Please for the love of god put on that weight

Marotrella - Not worried about him, good swing decisions and BBs are holding.

Pauley - He is a “corner bat” that might hit 15 HR a year

Beshears (last guy in Scott) - A project and trying at SS

Forrester (other guy for DLC) - Is dabbling at catcher, 3rd round pick from Oregon State so college pedigree

Lara (Brazoban) - If he makes it will be 2B not 3B, like the athletic makeup and a project

Cappe - Moving to 2B/3B and off SS, still high on him and think he’s 21 and has a lot of time

Sanoja - Can play 2B, SS, 3B, and CF, and doesn’t scream prospect but has lowest whiff rate in AAA ---> I think we like him more than they do

Head - He’s young and going to be awesome, but not much power

Marsee - He’s a CF and we believe the BB/K will play up long term ---> A true CF projection would be great

Stowers - He makes good swing decisions and hits the ball hard, we like him but he’s mentally struggling

Pintar - Good runner and fielder ---> Reading between the lines they see a Berti type as he can play some 2B/LF/CF

Berry - Is being permanently moved to RF and they are making tweaks explaining better offense ---> RF!

VMJR - We’re high on him and he’s a minor league player next year for us ---> Don't love this and Sanoja comments, Hill might really catch on as the backup OF next year

Aldermann - Most power in system maybe, like his strikeout rate and looks good in A+ and not over matched ---> I think this is the new Burdick and we all root for him above prospect projections

Connie - We’re not where we need to be with whiffs but the power is there

[fish16]

id be a ton more skeptical of DDLS if he was doing this as one of those older type prospects at 25 or 26 doing this in AAA. doing this at 21 is super impressive. And it's not like he's striking out at conine levels. He's not arraez, but he's only in the mid 20's with his k%. That's playable with the power he displays.

[lou]

His Strikeout rate is not taking a huge downturn, but it is getting better every year.

2022 (Including AFL): 26.8%
2023: 26%
2024: 24%

BB%
2022 (Including AFL): 6.2%
2023: 5.2%
2024: 6.4%

Again, not huge gains, but gains. He's 21 years old. This is the type of thing a hitter can improve on, and honestly I don't think that K% is terrible to begin with.

Yeah we've been burned by these high strikeout guys but to me he's not on that level. For Reference:

Minor League K%
Burdick: 31.5%
Harrison: 33%
Conine: 34.8%
Bleday: 22.1% (but Bleday only had 43 HRs total in 1119 PAs, DDLS has 35 this year. When Bleday was 21 he was still in college/getting drafted.)

What are the whiff/chase projections you're seeing? Or is this just based on a FanGraphs blurb?

Not just FG, every scouting blurb (I came here for the abov Herald post). The Marlins are publicly saying this. Pipeline has - he still chased way too many pitches and produced too many ground balls.

Everyone says he has chase issues. I'm not making this up.

[fish16]

i think we lead mlb in guys who cant play SS and are eventually long term 2b/LF. Norby clearly does not want to play 3b. Hopefully he gets over it though. the bat will play anywhere

[lou]

fine, you're a complete slave to fangraphs and statcast with 0 in the way of actual, real life, evaluation by actually watching people play, which you very clearly dont. That's my problem with you, everything is exclusively based on fangraphs and whatever other advanced stats you use with 0 in the way of actual real life evaluation based on watching people play. Im not saying using analytics is bad, but there is a reason why scouts still exist. Your exclusive use of stats with nothing in the way of actual real life evaluation by watching these people play leads you to thoroughly overrate a ton of players. If you did actually watch these guys, you know, play baseball, you would be able to tell very easily that DLC always sucked and has literally always been exactly what he has been his entire major league and minor league career. You fall in love with exit velocities with guys like sanchez without ever seeing they have giant holes in their game that are not obvious beyond the stat sheet. Hitting the ball hard is important, but that alone as a trait does not make anyone a breakout candidate. Sanchez has some of the worst plate discipline you've ever seen. That's why he has been a thoroughly mediocre pro. That's why he hits 470 foot bombs and has a .700 OPS and sub .300 OBP. Not because he is unlucky and has some major breakout coming absent major changes to his approach and swing.

That's my only issue with you. Everything is based exclusively on statistics with no room for any other differing opinions based on people who actually watch these guys play compared to you making evaluations exclusively based off what fangraphs or statcast or whatever other analyitc site you use tells you. DLC's profile didnt earn any playing time, because anyone who actually watched the dude play could very easily tell you he had almost no positive aspects to his game other than the occasional time he made contact, the ball was often hit hard. the issue is he rarely made contact, had some of the worst at bats you've ever seen, was a god awful fielder, and possibly an even worse base runner. You have a giant hole in how you evaluate players. for you to continue to say that DLC still has any kind of full time starter potential is beyond laughable. he's been the same fucking guy his entire 10 year professional career.

Agree to disagree and already pointed out the flaws here. 2/3rds of this post is what you would kill Lee Stone about. Pittsburgh batting DLC 4/5th? I guess the Marlins aren't the only ones that see potential? Maybe it's never realized. The world is not black and white.

I say lets be friends. Lets have less pressing buttons and angry ramblings over this nonsense. You can do it. I believe in you.

[fish16]

Agree to disagree and already pointed out the flaws here. 2/3rds of this post is what you would kill Lee Stone about. Pittsburgh batting DLC 4/5th? I guess the Marlins aren't the only ones that see potential? Maybe it's never realized. The world is not black and white.

I say lets be friends. Lets have less pressing buttons and angry ramblings over this nonsense. You can do it. I believe in you.

lee stone loved 33 year olds dominating a ball. also, do we know if lee stone is ok?

also, pittsburgh has one of the worst offenses in baseball. Him hitting 4th or 5th there is like him hitting 4th or 5th here. not exactly a badge of honor. the guy stinks

[Nick]

Not just FG, every scouting blurb (I came here for the abov Herald post). The Marlins are publicly saying this. Pipeline has - he still chased way too many pitches and produced too many ground balls.

Everyone says he has chase issues. I'm not making this up.

I mean, with that walk%, for sure he's a free swinger.

I'm just saying, there are lots of free swinger's in the majors. I'm more concerned by actual Ks, and from what his numbers tell me I don't find his K numbers all that concerning, like I did others that have passed through the organization.

[lou]

I mean, with that walk%, for sure he's a free swinger.

I'm just saying, there are lots of free swinger's in the majors. I'm more concerned by actual Ks, and from what his numbers tell me I don't find his K numbers all that concerning, like I did others that have passed through the organization.

There are and if he connects (like Burger or top scale Rooker) none of this will matter and we can all credit Peter for buying low on DDLS.

But everything you read says he swings at everything and we obviously know a skill jump happens at the MLB level with arms - especially with offspeed stuff which is the problem. He's going to be slidered to death and will he hit enough of them? I have no idea - I think he is very risky of a prospect versus a near guaranteed top 5-10 lefty reliever for years. We've mentioned the Jake Burger comparisons, but he also gets Maikel Franco comparisons at the same time ya know. Yes DDLS is blowing out Franco in AAA, but the comparisons are being made and thats a bad name to bring up as much as Burger is a good name to bring up.

I hope Peter and the DDLS Choo Choo Train passengers are right. Yes he's 21 and they can sit on him 2 more years too effectively, but there are tons of burns who guys who do this in the minors and then evaporate. I hope he's the exception and that .255/.305/.525+ stat line drops with neutral or better 1B defense. If he can play any viable 3B like the Marlins scout suggests (I don't buy it), that would be incredible.

[lou]

lee stone loved 33 year olds dominating a ball. also, do we know if lee stone is ok?

also, pittsburgh has one of the worst offenses in baseball. Him hitting 4th or 5th there is like him hitting 4th or 5th here. not exactly a badge of honor. the guy stinks

We don't. I hope he's OK and we can be friends with Lee too, even if we laugh at Ben Meyer for years. And yes Pitt does suck, but they do like him FWIW the same way I think he still could hit .270/.330/.450 quickly and that ain't bad at DH if he can do it. Just not here, it was time to move on.


That being said, for the sake of information since Fangraphs and Statcast are under attack, here's a real world example why baseball reference and defensive metrics are bullshit. I am trying to find common ground here with you as you don't think defense is generally important in analytics. So here's why I think it's bullshit.

Varsho 4.7 WAR
Meyers 1.8 WAR
https://stathead.com/baseball/versus...ear_min=2024&p layer_id1=varsho000dau&seasons_type=forall&request =1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&ut m _source=br&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=varshda01

Fangraphs
Varsho 3.1 WAR
Meyers 2.1 WAR
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/da...ts?position=OF
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ja...ts?position=OF

Statcast says Meyers is a better hitter, and an elite fielder even if Varsho is an eliter fielder. Varsho is a terrible hitter.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb


Varsho should be better as he's an incremental better defender this year and neither are hitting much this year so you can believe the FG performance difference. It seems a little high to me, but maybe its' right. The idea baseball reference's formula values Varsho that much higher than Meyers on a defensive level is laughable. He is not 3 wins better than Jake Meyers. I think we all agree if nothing more here - there is no fucking way Varsho is 3 wins better than Jake Meyers this year. We can agree on this?

So in a world where one does not believe defensive metrics are accurate or not valued properly, I ask - is Fangraphs better of these two with BR, or is baseball reference right and Varsho is one of the best players in baseball because of his defense alone?

I think Varsho is a fine starter because defense in CF matters greatly and he would be best utilized playing only against right handers or dabbling at catcher which I have no idea why they gave up on that, but a 4.7 WAR is outrageous to me and has no bearing or relation to other similar contributors like Meyers. BR is flawed. I can do this all day with other dumb stuff with them. I don't know why they don't get called out on that as this example is insane. FG/Statcast are better. They are valuing these guys much closer as they should be. We agree BR is stupid here right? Even if we think both players are over valued across the board because no one hits and the defense is not reliable, the delta between these two on all three system cannot be as far apart as BR has it. So BR is stupid, and FG and Statcast even if perceived to be flawed in their own manners, are better. So in my defense of the whole do I blindly following FG/Statcast, no. I look and watch other stuff, including other teams, and here's a great example of why I never care about BR because it's fucking stupid. There is a method to the madness.

[lou]

Fangraphs hit piece on Trevor Rogers for fish16 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/revisiti...ers-trade-oof/


TLDR - Things are not going well for Baltimore, but he has options and control years so they have time and who knows what Norby and Stowers will do, but a contender should make better moves than this.


Seems pretty fair. They'll get something out of him, but they should have swung higher.

[fish16]

thomas white with another great performance last night. they keep limiting him to 5 innings even when he has a low pitch count which i cant stand but whatever. He should be a consensus top 50 prospect for next years lists. I'd have him higher than meyer.

[Nick]

Edwards injured. Being a Marlins fan sucks yo.