2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

jacob berry has had a great last few months. hit his first AAA homer last night. now they have him playing RF. is he going to be the star level impact bat that they thought he would be? probably not. but if they can salvage him as some sort of piece moving forward that would be a pretty big development, especially with this new found versatility. not sure how he has looked at these spots, but he's played 1b, 3b, 2b, and RF this year. would like to see some more 20-25 hr power, but the plate discipline gives him a solid floor to me. He has had a 41/25 K/BB ratio since june in AA.

[fish16]

someone brought up joe mack yesterday, i would let him start next year in AA as well. I like to see guys mash at a level before promoting them. Let him start AA next year, hopefully he crushes and earns a promotion to jax.

[lou]

Myers was at 86 pitches going into the inning. Skip has had a quick hook before with guys to “build confidence”, and maybe that should be done with Myers, but also he’s gotta figure out how to get deeper into games

But yeah, he was clearly done after the 5th

I'm fine with throwing all of them now and getting shelled 3rd time through the lineup (it also helps future arbitration arguments in a total dystopian view of front office management too by depressing ERAs!) as they just need the innings, but I really think throwing deep into games does not matter with the Marlins personnel.

The Rays really champion quick hooks and bulk relievers which is where I am at. They just can't do it as their entire rotation is literally hurt right now with Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, and Weathers. If they have Sandy, Luzardo, and I'm going to say an eventual blossoming Cabrera (and if not replaced by Eury at some point) eating innings 3 times through, all of sudden they can make two starting arm platoons for the 4th and 5th SP next year:

Max + Weathers
Garrett + Bellozzo (or whoever. Curry, Mazur, new similar acquisition and hope it goes better than Munoz/Tyler, etc.)

I am imagining a world Max is throwing say 4.2 IP x 30 appearances (140 IP) and Weathers averages something like 4 IP x 32 appearances (128 IP). I think we all agree for who those guys are, those are very healthy totals for 2025.

Maybe Garrett is a little heavier like 32 appearances x 5 IP average (160 IP) and Bellozzo/whoever operates as a 1+ time through guy and is something like 35 appearances x 2.2 IP average (93 IP). Practically Garrett will probably skip a few spots so maybe he is 140+ IP and Bellozzo/whoever is closer to a 105+ IP guy and the de facto 7th SP. Bellozzo's analytics are cratering which is unfortunate, but he's still throwing an interesting cutter and this seems like a guy they may tinker with to get some real 1 time through slop innings. They can also find this kind of pitcher probably and just keep the seat warm until they reassess when Eury is back in action as that will change everything quickly.


Yes they need to stay healthy, but if you do that math, this quickly becomes situations where the bullpen really gets to rest so they can help Luzardo and Cabrera really quickly and we can pray Sandy is gonna Sandy. As guys get hurt, you can reassess on the fly as everyone is relatively stretched out.

So just saying here, sure throw Max now, but I don't know if we should care about him going deep into games long term as Sandy, Eury, Luzardo (even for just 1 year if he's moved), and probably Cabrera are going to eat and everyone else can be thrown in waves absent major breakouts. Beating that "no third time through the lineup" drum unless a guy shows he is a true third starter or better and we can probably only say that with Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, and maybe Cabrera if he fully clicks.

[fish16]

i feel like they are just making up the names of our bullpen arms at this point. who the fuck is austin kitchen. Adam oller? Not a real person

[Nick]

someone brought up joe mack yesterday, i would let him start next year in AA as well. I like to see guys mash at a level before promoting them. Let him start AA next year, hopefully he crushes and earns a promotion to jax.

He's 2nd in the Southern League in HRs and 1st in RBIs, playing catcher. He's done more than enough.

[lou]

I’m personally rooting for double platoon in the corner OF with Norby in the IF. All of our main bats, both in the majors and those in the upper minors coming up soon, are not left handed outside of Mack. So we’d want a another lefty bat anyway and the lineup can handle a double platoon especially with the position flexibility a lot of guys have

Sanchez has shown he’s serviceable enough for one, just a question if Stowers or Conine can get the k rate down. I think the likelihood is not but rooting for both and happy they have a month+ to get a chance to develop into it

Martorella, Pauley, and Mesa Jr. are all left handed just to mention, and they are probably the next wave with Sanoja even if this is a platoon/bench bunch of guys. But yes DDLS, Ramirez, and Serna are right handed.


So if it's double corner OF platoons and Norby in the IF, they'd have to do this

C - Fortes, _____/Ramirez/Banfield
1B/DH - Burger, DDLS
2B - Edwards, Otto (Norby pitches in)
SS - ______ (Otto and Edwards pitch in)
3B - Norby (Burger/DDLS back up)
LF - Stowers, _____
CF - _______
RF - Sanchez, _______/Dane/Hill/Hensley

It's a Bride DFA which isn't a big deal, but they might want to keep him and play Norby in LF vs LHP which makes a lot of sense here. I think we'd all agree that's the smartest deployment of resources and if Bride sucks, Sanoja can replace him at some point next year to pitch in at 3B.

That sets up an every day SS and CF offseason acquisition, and maybe they get a bridge catcher for 1 year to let Ramirez really cook in AAA until the summer.

I think they need a right handed CF almost as much as a SS. I don't really care how the SS hits as long as they are good, but if you want a lefty SS around Ramirez, Burger, DDLS, Norby, and this hypothetical CF I am talking about, sure. Let's do it. Let's have a good team for once!

[Nick]

Early take on Norby. I think he ends up in LF unfortunately.

Been impressed with his speed and athleticism, but hands of stone.

[lou]

mazur should get some time in AAA to start next season as well. he was rushed, as was snelling. Let them develop and get the most out of the asset. i very much disagree with fangraphs on mazur. He has a starter profile, and they will and should continue to start him. He was a top ranked prospect in the padres system for a reason, a bad start to this year because he was rushed should not change that.

It's not just FG it's pipeline also which says he has 2 pitches - A lack of more than two above-average pitches dilutes his ceiling some, but so long as he can get through a lineup twice, he should still fit the modern mold of a starting pitcher.


He is a very high floor fb/sl reliever and at worst a likely upgrade over Hoeing as the 2nd guy in that deal, but I agree with you on both keep him in AAA for awhile and see what happens (+ service time point which is mid may 2025) and he should really work on some kind of third pitch, as well as the control may trump the necessity for a true 60+ grade out pitch (which he doesn't have on MLB or FG) and maybe he can survive as a # 4 SP profile if he doesn't walk anybody.

It's a slow burn and let's see what happens maybe 10-15 starts down the road when we're 2 months into the season next year.

[lou]

jacob berry has had a great last few months. hit his first AAA homer last night. now they have him playing RF. is he going to be the star level impact bat that they thought he would be? probably not. but if they can salvage him as some sort of piece moving forward that would be a pretty big development, especially with this new found versatility. not sure how he has looked at these spots, but he's played 1b, 3b, 2b, and RF this year. would like to see some more 20-25 hr power, but the plate discipline gives him a solid floor to me. He has had a 41/25 K/BB ratio since june in AA.

They had a scout in Herald say its a permanent RF move, but yes I agree he probably dabbles at 1B moving forward. This makes a lot of sense with Sanchez, Stowers, maybe Conine(?), Mesa Jr., and down the road Head and Morlando are all left handed. Martorella too if he plays some LF.

At a minimum, Berry being able to hit left handers and play RF (as Norby will be the LF as I agree with Nick this is likely the longer term home for him), starts setting up the team with obvious players per spots with an assortment of corner lefties and Norby and Berry as right handers (Berry is a switch but you get it). The right handed CF is the elusive missing piece here.

Since May 25th all levels, Berry is hitting 265 PA, .302/.377/.477, 9% BB, 16% K, .341 BABIP, 8 HR. I've been posting this every 2-3 weeks for awhile now and the line keeps staying similar. He is doing a thing and hopefully it's more of reaching his prospect pedigree then the objectively good Colin Moran comparisons you've made who hit AA and then started teetering off. But as I mentioned, Moran was pretty OK for a few years and had like 2 WAR in close to 1200 PA between 2017-2020. That's a fine reserve if that is all Berry is and a bad pick, but like you said, that is "some kind of piece." That has value around Sanchez, Norby, and emerging other lefty OF they have. Assuming Berry will hit lefties a little.

[lou]

He's 2nd in the Southern League in HRs and 1st in RBIs, playing catcher. He's done more than enough.

The counterpoint is, he is still 21 and is a cold weather prospect and those guys usually have the longest development curve for all the missed time not playing in winters for years. And catchers have the longest development time on top of that.

I don't disagree he has positioned himself to call him up to AAA, but I also don't think it's a big deal if Ramirez and Banfield split catcher until the super2 deadline in 2025 (gotta be what the Ramirez idea is?) and then Mack is promoted to AAA then. Mack can live in AA Sep/Apr/May and I don't think it really impacts him. He can move to AAA in June and then get a full season there to summer 2026 which I imagine is a best case scenario promotion. That gives him a ton of time in the minors which would be great.

[fish16]

He's 2nd in the Southern League in HRs and 1st in RBIs, playing catcher. He's done more than enough.

counting stats in individual leagues would not be the best way to judge it because most guys who put up numbers dont spend the whole year in the same league. he has things he can improve on. he's 21, not 24. there is no rush with him. plus, i highly doubt banfield and ramirez start the year as our starting catchers, so there wont be room for him in AAA in my opinion. I think they will play service time games with ramirez so i think they start next year with those 2 in AAA, then ramirez gets promoted to MLB when service time is not an issue, ideally mack hits above .300 and continues to mash and earns the promotion to AAA when ramirez goes to the big leagues. He's had a great year, no doubt. If they start him at AAA i wouldnt complain, they just weirdly have some depth at C in the upper minors and he's still going to be just 22 opening day next year.

[fish16]

It's not just FG it's pipeline also which says he has 2 pitches - A lack of more than two above-average pitches dilutes his ceiling some, but so long as he can get through a lineup twice, he should still fit the modern mold of a starting pitcher.


He is a very high floor fb/sl reliever and at worst a likely upgrade over Hoeing as the 2nd guy in that deal, but I agree with you on both keep him in AAA for awhile and see what happens (+ service time point which is mid may 2025) and he should really work on some kind of third pitch, as well as the control may trump the necessity for a true 60+ grade out pitch (which he doesn't have on MLB or FG) and maybe he can survive as a # 4 SP profile if he doesn't walk anybody.

It's a slow burn and let's see what happens maybe 10-15 starts down the road when we're 2 months into the season next year.

i trust that they can help him develop his secondary pitches.. Im also reading different than what you are saying on pipeline and baseball america. The grades are probably a bit dated from opening day, but they have him at 4 above average pitches. 55 fastball and slider but also a 50 curveball and changeup. As does BBAmerica. They have him at a 55 FB, 60 slider, but also a 50 changeup and curve with 70 control. I dont think he will be a top of the rotation guy but i dont see why he cant be a mid rotation guy with elite control.

[fish16]

it is pretty nuts how much better mack got this year at a new level. He had 6 hr's and a .582 OPS last year in Beloit in 450 AB's. This year he has 23 hr's and an .823 OPS at a higher level in 427 AB's. Though he did spend the first 13 games in beloit.

[lou]

i feel like they are just making up the names of our bullpen arms at this point. who the fuck is austin kitchen. Adam oller? Not a real person

It's a fantasy baseball article, but this site is run by a really legit pitching evaluator and has some interesting notes on Oller - https://pitcherlist.com/sp-roundup-8-25-24/

Oller has one skill: A 99th percentile Total Break four-seamer. That’s a product of a two-plane heater that carries 17″ of iVB and 93rd percentile horizontal break at 13″+, which is generated by pitching from the extreme thrid-base side of the rubber and stepping closed toward home. This creates extra break and deception, allowing him to get extra horizontal break on top of his spin-efficient four-seamer that generates vert. Thing is, it’s all kinds of difficult to locate consistently while throwing cross-body............ I worry that we can blame these mechanics for his lack of a supporting cast. The curveball is the heavily favored #2 pitch and went sub-50% strikes across its 21 thrown. That sounds bad. Because it is bad. The changeup was used sparingly and was decent when thrown, but Oller doesn’t trust it. Is that four-seamer elite? When he’s able to spot it, it can look like it. I can see a stretch of legit rhythm at some point, but I don’t think it’s enough without the secondaries to back it up + the sub 94 mph velocity


He's actually a little interesting as he has a pitch. This goes along with McMillian's slider, Bauman's velocity, Bellozo's cutter, and Oller's four seamer. The Marlins are churning better guys than they have in recent years who are showing 1 elite/above average trait and then trying to figure out that second pitch to turn them into a Bender (or better). This is the sort of thing as churn 5-10 of these guys and if you get 1-2 of them every year, all of a sudden things look good in 2-3 years down the road. Kim objectively did not operate like this on the level Bendix is, and I have much more confidence in Bendix figuring this out and finding some RP gems as the Rays have for years.

So yes some of these guys are not serious (Kent Emmanual who has just been ravaged by injuries, etc.), but Oller fits more of a project pitcher mold where if they can figure out the right presentation of the main pitch and a second OK pitch develops, he may "some kind of piece" as one says. There is a strategy here with Bendix which is all I'm saying. And yes I know I am crying about Puk and at the same time saying Bendix is doing a thing here with finding cheap RP, but I really like Puk (and he's a lefty), and the comments here are more about churning more Faucher/Cronins/Bender mid-tier guys then finding more high leverage guys (although McMillians is interesting if he stops walking people and he's the one if Bendix is going to pull out a miracle of any of these guys).

[fish16]

It's a fantasy baseball article, but this site is run by a really legit pitching evaluator and has some interesting notes on Oller - https://pitcherlist.com/sp-roundup-8-25-24/

Oller has one skill: A 99th percentile Total Break four-seamer. That’s a product of a two-plane heater that carries 17″ of iVB and 93rd percentile horizontal break at 13″+, which is generated by pitching from the extreme thrid-base side of the rubber and stepping closed toward home. This creates extra break and deception, allowing him to get extra horizontal break on top of his spin-efficient four-seamer that generates vert. Thing is, it’s all kinds of difficult to locate consistently while throwing cross-body............ I worry that we can blame these mechanics for his lack of a supporting cast. The curveball is the heavily favored #2 pitch and went sub-50% strikes across its 21 thrown. That sounds bad. Because it is bad. The changeup was used sparingly and was decent when thrown, but Oller doesn’t trust it. Is that four-seamer elite? When he’s able to spot it, it can look like it. I can see a stretch of legit rhythm at some point, but I don’t think it’s enough without the secondaries to back it up + the sub 94 mph velocity


He's actually a little interesting as he has a pitch. This goes along with McMillian's slider, Bauman's velocity, Bellozo's cutter, and Oller's four seamer. The Marlins are churning better guys than they have in recent years who are showing 1 elite/above average trait and then trying to figure out that second pitch to turn them into a Bender (or better). This is the sort of thing as churn 5-10 of these guys and if you get 1-2 of them every year, all of a sudden things look good in 2-3 years down the road. Kim objectively did not operate like this on the level Bendix is, and I have much more confidence in Bendix figuring this out and finding some RP gems as the Rays have for years.

So yes some of these guys are not serious (Kent Emmanual who has just been ravaged by injuries, etc.), but Oller fits more of a project pitcher mold where if they can figure out the right presentation of the main pitch and a second OK pitch develops, he may "some kind of piece" as one says. There is a strategy here with Bendix which is all I'm saying. And yes I know I am crying about Puk and at the same time saying Bendix is doing a thing here with finding cheap RP, but I really like Puk (and he's a lefty), and the comments here are more about churning more Faucher/Cronins/Bender mid-tier guys then finding more high leverage guys (although McMillians is interesting if he stops walking people and he's the one if Bendix is going to pull out a miracle of any of these guys).

im sure they are just taking swings on guys that have some things they like in their analytical profile but every night it's a new guy that i've legitimately never heard of. Im fine with the strategy. doesnt fucking matter we're 40 games under .500. might as well let the kids play and see if we can find some cheap long term relievers.