2024 Game Thread

[lou]

.801 OPS against righties is good in today's MLB. Yes, we know he doesn't hit lefties, but teams with low payrolls need to utilize platoons.

Is he anything special? No, but that's why you get him on a team friendly deal. Lock in spots in the lineup. Then shoot for the moon in trades or signings (ha) to fill CF and SS.

Practically speaking, you can probably get platoon options for like $8-15m. Joc got $12.5m this year. If you want to give Jesus Sanchez a 5 year deal, I think it would be closer to the 5/$30-35m range versus $45m. You can't pay him current market rate 3 years from free agency and he'd be looking at something like $12-15m in arbitration or so. Or maybe it's like 4/$22m and it's an expensive ($15m??) 5th year option sort of thing.

Given the team's OF depth (Norby will play a lot of LF probably, Stowers, maybe Dane, Marsee, and Berry was moved to RF, and maybe guys like Sanoja and Pauley contribute, and eventually Head and Morlando as bigger names, plus a 50/50 chance you get an OF in the 2025 draft top 3 pick), I wouldn't sign him TBH. Take him to arbitration for 3 years and let him walk. If he completely explodes into a 35 HR hitter next year, can reassess with still a lot of control prior to free agency.


They need a right handed CF who can play virtually every day. It's not SS depth level bad, but it's pretty damn bad and they need one. They don't have this player and Head is 4-5 years away so it's time to invest in one IMO. I'd leave the corners alone and reassess after 2025.

[lou]

.801 against righties is not good enough to make up for the other deficiencies is my point. he is a complete liability against lefties, and he doesnt hit righties enough to make up for that, the average defense, bad base running, terrible plate discipline, and overall bad baseball IQ. that is not worth 10 million per year to this team specifically with the payroll constraints. that's not nearly team friendly enough for what he brings in my opinion. obviously you are free to disagree. He's got 3 years left after this year. he is a let it ride and see what happens guy for me. you could maybe convince me if, like NNY says, there are team options on the last few years.

I think you're right on the price floated that is too expensive, but to be objective, Sanchez is a very solid defender and an .801 OPS against right handers is very good. He is 54th in OPS vs RHP - all batters - this year (minimum 150 PA). I don't think any of us can say an .801 OPS against either split is not enough in the current offensive environment. Sanchez is at worst an extremely good 5th hole hitter against righties, but is likely a 6th/7th hole hitter on a good team for the lefty reasons we all acknowledge. Anyways I agree ride him out via arbitration, but he is good at the things he is good at.

[lou]

Anyway, I think Sanchez and Dane could be a very productive .800 OPS type production for the next couple of years. In my eyes I'm seeing 4 spots locked up for the next couple of years. Maybe I'm overreacting on early production with Norby, but I like him a lot.

Edwards 2B
Burger 1B/DH
Norby 3B/LF
Sanchez/Dane RF

Jonah Bride being a possibility, this last month will be huge for him.

Then you have DDLS/Johnston/Berry/Martorella all fighting for one 1B/DH spot. I guess LF could still be open if Norby sticks at 3B. I'm not buying this Berry in RF experiment.

Victor Mesa Jr. in my eyes didn't do enough this year to have me convinced he's going to be the main CF at some point next year, but it's there for the taking. Huge year for him next year, he needs to play off the charts to convince the FO not to take one of those CF in the draft IMO.

Catcher - the battle between Mack/Banfield/Ramirez will be on. You can't have them all on the AAA roster, right? One of them has to make the team out of spring the way I see it.

Sanoja at the very least will be a solid utility guy. He'll get a shot at some point next year.

Jared Serna - I think he has to make SS work for him to have a spot on the team in the future. I'm interested to see the next defensive scouting report on him and if people think he can stick there.

Bride is already sputtering back to earth with 80 OPS drop last 10 and hit profile that says moderate backup at best - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. This month will be huge, but this is a stopgap guy if he does make it on the 40 man. Mesa Jr got hurt so I agree he's probably a 26 or later guy.

They probably have C (Mack/Ramirez/Banfield), 1B (Burger), DH (DDLS/Ramirez), 2B (Edwards/Everyone), "Norby", and RF (Sanchez/Stowers/platoon churning) set for years. It's just beating the drum here - SS, 3B, CF. Optimistically, they sign the SS, trade a SP for a CF and then sign a 1 year SP to help stopgap back to Eury, and then pray to god you get the # 1 pick in the draft to get Ethan Holliday for 3B.

For the catchers though, I can see them keeping Pereda/someone else as 4th guy on 40 man (w/ Fortes, Ramirez, Banfield). They can keep Mack in AA to open the year (and off 40 man) and split Ramirez/Banfield in AAA. Then Ramirez/Banfield can push themselves up when they are ready. I think a 1 year veteran catcher is kind of a sneaky luxury need. I know we all hate this, but Ramirez is top of the list of deflecting service time so I don't think he opens at the start of the year and is a summer 2025 guy. Banfield should operate as the 3rd catcher and Ramirez replaces Fortes/Whoever by the summer sort of thing.

[lou]

Griff triples for his 1st hit. That was cool.

This was a nice moment. Loved seeing Jeff happy in the stands.

[lou]

Also super cherry picked but Stowers last 9 games: .296/.367/.519/.885 with K rate down to 23.3%. I don’t have too much faith in him*, but good to see him turn it around because he looked absolutely lost out there initially

*and being fair to that line, the XBH basically only came at Coors and it’s with a .368 BABIP. But at least he’s not striking out half the time anymore lol

There are encouraging batted ball analytics here FWIW - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

It's obviously the whiffs. No one is going to survive a 35% K rate, but if he can get that down to say 28%-30% (he was around 25% in 1,000 AAA PA), he's got a chance. Lets note the .660 vs RHP .205 vs LHP OPS split also, and MiLB's website seems to be combining his minor/major league splits for absolutely unknown shitty tech reasons, but it's showing an .811 RHP / .706 LHP OPS split between AAA/MLB. He's basically just gonna hit right handers more and its a question of how high can he get that.

This is also another reason to not really sign Sanchez and just keep him in arb. Stowers could quickly become a cheaper version of him and it's hard to carry 2 guys like this at virtually the same position. Maybe if they truly get a dedicated SS and CF that makes it a bit easier to carry two RHP splits OF, and someone like Sanoja can really float on the bench between SS/3B/CF, etc. The good news here is, this will absolutely work itself out on the field so hopefully Stowers can get that K rate below 30. That goes for Conine too.

[lou]

Also I want to point out McMillion is pitching like a Tanner Scott level madman - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

It is only an 11.2 IP sample at the MLB level over 2 years, but he's maybe got upside to be a high leverage reliever if he can keep the walks under the control. The slider looks good, but this says it is exceptionally good.

This is of course an enormous ask and why KC gave up on him (he walked 7+ per 9 in their AAA system this year), but I'm really interested in seeing how this month goes. They did fix Scott. This is a worthwhile project for sure.

[Nick]

Have to think Adam Mazur is up with the big league club soon.

[Nick]

Is Skip trying to send a message with Meyer? 3rd straight game I feel like he’s left him in an inning longer than he should have.

[nny]

Myers was at 86 pitches going into the inning. Skip has had a quick hook before with guys to “build confidence”, and maybe that should be done with Myers, but also he’s gotta figure out how to get deeper into games

But yeah, he was clearly done after the 5th

[nny]

Also I know in the point is “right hand platoon bat” but I think it’s too early to pencil Dane into anything. He’s certainly been better than Hensley and Hill to be the top of the depth chart at the moment, but I don’t think it’s a spot that should be considered locked down

Which, been stated many times but can’t be stated enough: holy shit did he fuck up

[nny]

There are encouraging batted ball analytics here FWIW - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

It's obviously the whiffs. No one is going to survive a 35% K rate, but if he can get that down to say 28%-30% (he was around 25% in 1,000 AAA PA), he's got a chance. Lets note the .660 vs RHP .205 vs LHP OPS split also, and MiLB's website seems to be combining his minor/major league splits for absolutely unknown shitty tech reasons, but it's showing an .811 RHP / .706 LHP OPS split between AAA/MLB. He's basically just gonna hit right handers more and its a question of how high can he get that.

This is also another reason to not really sign Sanchez and just keep him in arb. Stowers could quickly become a cheaper version of him and it's hard to carry 2 guys like this at virtually the same position. Maybe if they truly get a dedicated SS and CF that makes it a bit easier to carry two RHP splits OF, and someone like Sanoja can really float on the bench between SS/3B/CF, etc. The good news here is, this will absolutely work itself out on the field so hopefully Stowers can get that K rate below 30. That goes for Conine too.

I’m personally rooting for double platoon in the corner OF with Norby in the IF. All of our main bats, both in the majors and those in the upper minors coming up soon, are not left handed outside of Mack. So we’d want a another lefty bat anyway and the lineup can handle a double platoon especially with the position flexibility a lot of guys have

Sanchez has shown he’s serviceable enough for one, just a question if Stowers or Conine can get the k rate down. I think the likelihood is not but rooting for both and happy they have a month+ to get a chance to develop into it

[lou]

Is Skip trying to send a message with Meyer? 3rd straight game I feel like he’s left him in an inning longer than he should have.

They are doing this with Cabrera too who should be coming out early a few starts including the last one. I'm not sure it's a message, but rather get your innings to build up the stamina for next year. As they need to get call it 275 innings out of those 2 next year. Max is at 109 and Cabrera 93 combined at all levels this year.

[lou]

Have to think Adam Mazur is up with the big league club soon.

They were pretty clear with some of the acquisition press they think he was rushed and needs some real MiLB time, especially to work on secondary offerings. You know, the "pitch in reverse" scouting reports and how FG thinks he is likely a fastball/slider reliever. Also the constant lowest common denominator comment - he was up (eyeballing) around 40 days this season, so call this...... Mid May 2025 and later and his age 30 season is unlocked via service time (and he'd be a super 2 like Garrett and Cabrera). He seems like a guy they will do this with to me. Just saying here, maybe he gets a spot or two if they are desperate as you can kick that mid-May 2025 to June 1, 2025 pretty easily on a big picture level, but I don't expect the big call up for him ala Max until some point next year (assuming he works out too). He's also up to 114 innings this year and did 96 last year. He may just have 2-3 or so starts left in him. I don't think they'll jump him more than 30-35 innings, but maybe that's wrong. I'd just let him throw in AAA and cycle these dingleberry waiver claims and AAA guys to get through the season and maybe a few (like Bellozzo and McMillian in particular) stick on the 40 man.

[fish16]

mazur should get some time in AAA to start next season as well. he was rushed, as was snelling. Let them develop and get the most out of the asset. i very much disagree with fangraphs on mazur. He has a starter profile, and they will and should continue to start him. He was a top ranked prospect in the padres system for a reason, a bad start to this year because he was rushed should not change that.

[fish16]

one of the things i like about mazur is the elite control. the guy walks absolutely no one. reminds me of why i liked pablo lopez when we got him and then what he did when he was in our minor league system.