2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

We can agree to disagree. He gave up a lot of solo bombs last year which happens. I think the issue is everyone hates their own relievers, and then you look at what everyone else is throwing across baseball and all of sudden your relievers look pretty good. Marlins have the 2nd best bullpen this year - and who here thinks that is a true statement as it is via Fangraph's system. That's how bad relievers are elsewhere where as what looks like a mediocre bunch of right handers with excellent lefties, is churning out that much production.

Puk's statcast has fully recovered with the fire he has thrown since going back to the pen (with the walks down because of the SP experiment) - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb. He's a stud reliever and will likely be for years. Bleday and DDLS are never going to get to this kind of upside absent huge hit profile changes for Bleday or DDLS managing the whiffs/chase (according to scouts), even if in a vacuum they are more valuable as potential everyday players versus 60-70 IP a season. Personally, I think it's easier to find bat options in FA versus a reliever like Puk. I'd take that bet. It is OK if someone else would not. I hope Peter is right, I just do not like the Puk and Brazoban deals.

not everyone hates their own relievers, they hate their own unreliable relievers, and that's what puk was in high leverage situation. He was completely unreliable when it mattered most. He looks great in meaningless low leverage situations.

Bat options in FA, which we never spend any money, cost 10+ million outside of fringe roster guys. Full time starters in premium positions like CF cost 10-15 million +. You can find very quality relievers every single offseason for the minimum, just like they found pretty much the entire bullpen this year for either minor league deals or very minor trades.

[Nick]

I will say, I don't think it can be downplayed how incredible of a season DDLS is having this year at 21 years old.. Some people were saying oh it's the PCL, but he's been even better since going to Jacksonville. 35 HRs between AA and AAA, and I don't think his strikeout rate is that bad, 23.7%. We've seen guys struggle at the big league level with strikeout problems. Guys like Burdick and Monte Harrison come to mind, but those guys were striking out at at 30%+ rate easily.

I could easily see a combo of him and Burger at 1B/DH giving you 70 HRs a season.

[fish16]

I will say, I don't think it can be downplayed how incredible of a season DDLS is having this year at 21 years old.. Some people were saying oh it's the PCL, but he's been even better since going to Jacksonville. 35 HRs between AA and AAA, and I don't think his strikeout rate is that bad, 23.7%. We've seen guys struggle at the big league level with strikeout problems. Guys like Burdick and Monte Harrison come to mind, but those guys were striking out at at 30%+ rate easily.

I could easily see a combo of him and Burger at 1B/DH giving you 70 HRs a season.

agreed. the initial look into him when we first got him reminded me of those guys who mash AAA but are really AAAA players, but he is super young to be doing what he's doing, and he's not striking out like crazy. This isnt dallas mcpherson mastering AAA, this is a whole new level, and the velocity that he's hitting the ball with is pretty nuts. not necessarily stanton level but to the naked eye it looks different than normal hitters

[Nick]

I think this is the future lineup we're looking at:

1. Edwards 2B
2. Burger 1B/DH
3. Jace Laviolette CF (2025 Draft Pick)
4. DDLS 1B/DH
5. Sanchez/Myers RF
6. Connor Norby 3B (please make it work)
7. Joe Mack/Agustin Ramirez C (Ramirez getting time at DH too, maybe 1B/LF)
8. SS acquired via Trade (this probably makes or breaks everything)
9. Sanoja/Serna LF/UT have these guys play everywhere, at least one of them is in the lineup every day.

[Nick]

Orioles sent Rogers to AAA. LMAO

[lou]

A.J. Puk's Career WAR:

Fangraphs: 2.8
BR: 2.5

JJ Bleday's WAR 2024:

Fangraphs: 2.6
BR: 2.9

Sure, and now extrapolate those numbers to their time played:

Bleday per 600 PA 1.5 WAR

Puk per 180 IP 2.5 WAR


Puk is a much better baseball player.

[lou]

not everyone hates their own relievers, they hate their own unreliable relievers, and that's what puk was in high leverage situation. He was completely unreliable when it mattered most. He looks great in meaningless low leverage situations.

Bat options in FA, which we never spend any money, cost 10+ million outside of fringe roster guys. Full time starters in premium positions like CF cost 10-15 million +. You can find very quality relievers every single offseason for the minimum, just like they found pretty much the entire bullpen this year for either minor league deals or very minor trades.

I will eat all the crow you can find if they find a 1.5+ WAR LHP reliever next year for the minimum. And I say that fully acknowledging they might actually have done that with Cronin and Faucher (or close enough) who analytically, are really excelling. It's pretty hard to do that IMO. I just like Puk a lot more than you guys. And that's OK. I do hope DDLS is better and I am wrong.

[Nick]

Sure, and now extrapolate those numbers to their time played:

Bleday per 600 PA 1.5 WAR

Puk per 180 IP 2.5 WAR


Puk is a much better baseball player.

Huh? You're whole argument is Puk is an amazing relief pitcher ignore what he did as a starter.

How the fuck is Puk going to pitch 180 innings in a year as a reliever? That's going to be at least 3 years for him.

[lou]

Orioles sent Rogers to AAA. LMAO

Now this is major LOL we can all agree on!

I wonder if they are about to make him a 1 time through 2+ inning reliever and throwing max velocity. I do think Rogers will be around another decade in some lefty role. Everyone always be needing lefties.

[Nick]

Hell he's only pitched 202.2 innings in his career right now. The man made his debut in 2019.

[fish16]

Sure, and now extrapolate those numbers to their time played:

Bleday per 600 PA 1.5 WAR

Puk per 180 IP 2.5 WAR


Puk is a much better baseball player.

now divide that 2.5 by the 3 years it will take him to pitch 180 innings considering he was a fucking terrible starter. and then try using bleday's production this year extrapolated over 600 PAs because young hitters do in fact improve over time, especially ones drafted so highly with a lot of talent. bleday is far and away the more valuable asset. i think you know what you're doing using bledays first 2 years in that sample as opposed to what he's done this year

[fish16]

Now this is major LOL we can all agree on!

I wonder if they are about to make him a 1 time through 2+ inning reliever and throwing max velocity. I do think Rogers will be around another decade in some lefty role. Everyone always be needing lefties.

i think rogers will be a fringe roster pitcher soon if he doesnt change what he's been doing for 3.5 years now. as ive been saying for months, the guy has been living off the status of his first half in 2021 for 3.5 years. he's a bad starter. the fact that the orioles gave up what they did for him was a joke. the guy has been wheezing through 4.2 shitty IP every 5 days for 3 years.

[lou]

Huh? You're whole argument is Puk is an amazing relief pitcher ignore what he did as a starter.

How the fuck is Puk going to pitch 180 innings in a year as a reliever? That's going to be at least 3 years for him.

Sigh.


It is a comparison on playing time. The historical equivalent is 600 PA for a full time batter and 180 IP for a full time pitcher. This has been the baseline for decades when comparing guys with different playing times, you have to assess them on the same level for impact. So Bleday's generated 2.7 WAR in his career in 1,045 PA. Puk has generated 2.8 WAR in 202.2 IP. This isn't apples to apples. So Puk has produced more value in really 1+ full time season of work, and Bleday is around 1.8 seasons of full time work. Hence, when you normalize their actual playing time, you see the real vast difference. Puk has had a profound more impact when he plays. Said another way, let's give Puk another 120 innings and see how much more WAR he has versus Bleday right now. This is not close to me.

Also, I do understand all of Bleday's value is this season so he likely is ticking up as the above is the career rate, but so is Puk who is having the best season of his career by far. It's not a debate to me that a 1.3+ WAR RP is more valuable than a 2.6+ WAR LF type (ignoring payroll/surplus value issues). You're just aggregating quantity on the fielder who plays much much more, but the reliever is actually impacting games at a higher level. Those guys are harder to find. It's why team's have gone to irrational levels to get Scott/Adam/Estevez types. Puk is simply an elite RP right now. Doesn't mean he holds up forever, but he is showing really enormous performance and upside. Much more than Bleday. I will absolutely give you DDLS has the power upside and agree with fish16's comment about DDLS popping those elite EVs so there is major hope. I am just fearful the whiffs show up in force against MLB pitching. Basically, I think Puk is the safest player of these three and 2nd highest upside option of these three. Bleday is lowest upside by a good margin, and a middle floor. And DDLS is highest ceiling with the power, but highest risk with the whiffs. I prefer Puk here as he is great and pretty safe as a lefty.

[lou]

now divide that 2.5 by the 3 years it will take him to pitch 180 innings considering he was a fucking terrible starter. and then try using bleday's production this year extrapolated over 600 PAs because young hitters do in fact improve over time, especially ones drafted so highly with a lot of talent. bleday is far and away the more valuable asset.

Tell me you don't know ball without telling me you don't know ball

[fish16]

Tell me you don't know ball without telling me you don't know ball

im pretty sure i do know ball, and you just used a relievers WAR for the period of time you like for him only, for some reason extrapolated over 180 innings, nearly 3 years of production for him, as opposed to the WAR of bleday extrapolated over 600 PA's, which would be 1 season of his production, purposely including the last 2 years of initial young mlb player production when he has gotten significantly better this year. It's pretty obvious what you were trying to do there.

Please do tell what Puk's war would be extrapolated over 70 innings (being nice since he gets injured every year) compared to Bleday's production from this year extrapolated over 600 pa's. that's an actual comparison of their relative annual value. not comparing 3 years of one guy for some reason compared to 1 year of the other.