2024 Game Thread

[fish16]

Burger had a .605 ops exactly one month ago.

[lou]

5/110 is not getting us adames over other offers. That's around what he will get from other teams, and those other teams will be more appealing than this franchise. Also, not even bringing up other teams offers- WE. ARE. NOT. SPENDING. THAT. KIND. OF. MONEY. How many years can you continue to do this with the "werth signing" before you realize it will never happen?

At least 3 more.

And what other teams? I want specific teams who will spend $110m on Adames or Kim. See above. Dodgers, Padres, Tigers, and Braves are very hard sells as they have ifher payroll/position concerns. Who is spending this money? Giants are going to let Chapman and Snell walk after that what they are doing?

Also here’s the thing. Are they just going to run $65m payrolls here on out? They can’t even spend money if they wanted to at other positions as they have bodies If that’s the prediction by all means. Nothing happens and Bruce is even worse than he has been. But when you’re talking about payroll allocation… Ramirez, Mack/Banfield, DDLS, Martorella/Berry, Edwards, Otto/Serna, Pauley/Bride, Norby, Stowers, Sanoja/Mesa Jr., Max, Weathers, Snelling, Mazur, Fulton, Nardi, Cronin, Faucher and others relievers are going to cost nothing forever…. And Luzardo, Burger, Sanchez, Cabrera, and Garrett will get a little but not crazy expense… and Sandy is expensive… and they do have Stanton payments coming up which sucks

The allocation of future payroll is extremely easy as they aren’t going to spend at C, 1B, DH, 2B, LF, another OF spot, entire bench of bats, SP, LHP RP, and all RHP RP except maybe they get a luxury closer. What they have is eating these 21-22+ roster spots.

Payroll allocation of this $20-25m (minimum) they have can go into 1 player at SS, 3B, or a right handed OF. Because they’ll be able to trade Luzardo for a 3B/OF and another SP (Garrett) for another, and maybe Sanchez or Burger has to go to help get a player at a tougher position. And filling in the rest with club controlled options, lets you spend on that one guy and it really
means nothing long term for what Bruce has previously spent.

Who is available in free agency next few years who is an impact FA at SS, 3B, or OF. The entire list is:

Adames
Kim
Chapman - over 30
Bregman - over 30
Soto - over $400m and not a CF
Bichette - is he cooked?
Tucker - Not a CF

Its these guys or what is going to happen is they sign Miguel Rojas, Yoan Moncada, and an Okert levels RP and that’s the offseason until they decide to trade again to actually fix problems. This is a Bruce is even cheaper than he has been for three years scenario.

Adames, Kim, and Chapman if we want to add a third name all will fit into Bruce budgets for years. Personally, I’d go with the younger guys with Adames or Kim. One of them and moving SP for Campbell and Meidroth on Boston is an ideal offseason in 2 swoops and then is reassess late June.

[Nick]

Edwards is an absolute stud. Got a single and scored without any help from anyone.

[fish16]

At least 3 more.

And what other teams? I want specific teams who will spend $110m on Adames or Kim. See above. Dodgers, Padres, Tigers, and Braves are very hard sells as they have ifher payroll/position concerns. Who is spending this money? Giants are going to let Chapman and Snell walk after that what they are doing?

Also here’s the thing. Are they just going to run $65m payrolls here on out? They can’t even spend money if they wanted to at other positions as they have bodies If that’s the prediction by all means. Nothing happens and Bruce is even worse than he has been. But when you’re talking about payroll allocation… Ramirez, Mack/Banfield, DDLS, Martorella/Berry, Edwards, Otto/Serna, Pauley/Bride, Norby, Stowers, Sanoja/Mesa Jr., Max, Weathers, Snelling, Mazur, Fulton, Nardi, Cronin, Faucher and others relievers are going to cost nothing forever…. And Luzardo, Burger, Sanchez, Cabrera, and Garrett will get a little but not crazy expense… and Sandy is expensive… and they do have Stanton payments coming up which sucks

The allocation of future payroll is extremely easy as they aren’t going to spend at C, 1B, DH, 2B, LF, another OF spot, entire bench of bats, SP, LHP RP, and all RHP RP except maybe they get a luxury closer. What they have is eating these 21-22+ roster spots.

Payroll allocation of this $20-25m (minimum) they have can go into 1 player at SS, 3B, or a right handed OF. Because they’ll be able to trade Luzardo for a 3B/OF and another SP (Garrett) for another, and maybe Sanchez or Burger has to go to help get a player at a tougher position. And filling in the rest with club controlled options, lets you spend on that one guy and it really
means nothing long term for what Bruce has previously spent.

Who is available in free agency next few years who is an impact FA at SS, 3B, or OF. The entire list is:

Adames
Kim
Chapman - over 30
Bregman - over 30
Soto - over $400m and not a CF
Bichette - is he cooked?
Tucker - Not a CF

Its these guys or what is going to happen is they sign Miguel Rojas, Yoan Moncada, and an Okert levels RP and that’s the offseason until they decide to trade again to actually fix problems. This is a Bruce is even cheaper than he has been for three years scenario.

Adames, Kim, and Chapman if we want to add a third name all will fit into Bruce budgets for years. Personally, I’d go with the younger guys with Adames or Kim. One of them and moving SP for Campbell and Meidroth on Boston is an ideal offseason in 2 swoops and then is reassess late June.

Braves, dodgers, blue jays, and mariners. Also known as not the marlins. Also known as the teams that spend money consistently. Hope that answers your question and hope you don’t fall in love yet again in August with a guy we have 0 chance of acquiring in December.

and to answer your question on future payrolls, the answer is to develop and re-sign from within early. Not spend 25 million per year on the 29-34 years of good but not great players. That will allow you to do what the rays have done which is make timely free agent signings for short term to complement their home grown and signed long term core. I’m not sure how you don’t see that they aren’t signing a 20 million over 5 years guy ever. I can just go through the list by year of how many different fucking guys you’ve done that for over the last 7 years

[lou]

Edwards is an absolute stud. Got a single and scored without any help from anyone.

The team is remarkably better because of him and Burger going on a pure rampage. Bride is chipping in too. Let's get Norby up for the love of god and this team becomes fairly watchable as Sanchez is doing his thing and at least Stowers and Otto are interesting.


Bellozo for Amaya seems like a great deal. Will have to see the statcast update later tonight, but he's got options in 25 and 26 and this looks like an extremely competent 7th-8th SP. Not ribbing you there from earlier, but these kind of guys are extremely valuable to have in reserve if he's going to be able to eat 75+ innings next year over 10+ injury replacement starts, double headers, or bulk reliever call ups. Is kind of a missing piece even if this is pitcher "16" on your roster. They didn't really have that, but now they really might. This is a great development.

[fish16]

Edwards is an absolute stud. Got a single and scored without any help from anyone.

He is super impressive. Arraez level contact abilities but also an ability to draw more walks than Arraez. His per 162 game extrapolated stats even including his brief major league time is super impressive. Don’t have it in front of me but I saw it earlier today and it was like 50 steals on 55 attempts, .800 ops, .335 average. If he can become average defensively at ss that’s a star

[lou]

Braves, dodgers, blue jays, and mariners. Also known as not the marlins. Also known as the teams that spend money consistently. Hope that answers your question and hope you don’t fall in love yet again in August with a guy we have 0 chance of acquiring in December.

and to answer your question on future payrolls, the answer is to develop and re-sign from within early. Not spend 25 million per year on the 29-34 years of good but not great players

The Blue Jays are going to a rebuild and have Bichette. Also Horowitz, Barger, and Martinez are infielders. Not a fit.

The Braves have their top SP hurt, need arms, and have so many bats, plus their top position prospect is a SS in AAA. This isn't really a fit absent they make other moves to trade for other things.

Mariners have JP Crawford signed, but certainly could be a Kim destination maybe..... but SS get more money so will they value him as much as SS needing clubs. Also, Emerson, Young, Celesten, and Peete are their top prospects pretty much so why clog the pipes with huge player? This is extremely unlikely of this list.

Dodgers are a maybe but have $240m committed so adding a $20m player when they are already a top offense is top. How much are they going to push into luxury land? This is a tough one.

Detroit is a smarter landing spot than all of this. Similar to the Marlins, it's signing a guy a year early.

Giants if they pass on Chapman or Snell is also a possibility.


There are not great fits league wide for Adames and Kim, and why Chapman, Snell, Bellinger, and Montgomery struggled for deals last year. It's not a money thing for Miami. If they pass on these guys, it's because they think they fall apart ala Carl Crawford. I'm not seeing that yet, but who knows.


And yes they should develop and re-sign from within early - that player is Edward Cabrera who you don't want to sign.

[lou]

He is super impressive. Arraez level contact abilities but also an ability to draw more walks than Arraez. His per 162 game extrapolated stats even including his brief major league time is super impressive. Don’t have it in front of me but I saw it earlier today and it was like 50 steals on 55 attempts, .800 ops, .335 average. If he can become average defensively at ss that’s a star

The more he plays, the more his defense drags down. 7th percentile defender. He's awful defensively. He will never be average at SS. Never. He has to go to 2B. He'll probably be fine there and the bat plays.... even with an entering today .434 BABIP but that's still fine as it projects to a .340 OBP as discussed.


It's really easy here and no one disagrees - they need an everyday shortstop.

[Nick]

And I don’t think anyone disagrees that Adames would be a great fit, but Sherman is not going to pony up simple as that. I would love to be shocked.

[fish16]

The Blue Jays are going to a rebuild and have Bichette. Also Horowitz, Barger, and Martinez are infielders. Not a fit.

The Braves have their top SP hurt, need arms, and have so many bats, plus their top position prospect is a SS in AAA. This isn't really a fit absent they make other moves to trade for other things.

Mariners have JP Crawford signed, but certainly could be a Kim destination maybe..... but SS get more money so will they value him as much as SS needing clubs. Also, Emerson, Young, Celesten, and Peete are their top prospects pretty much so why clog the pipes with huge player? This is extremely unlikely of this list.

Dodgers are a maybe but have $240m committed so adding a $20m player when they are already a top offense is top. How much are they going to push into luxury land? This is a tough one.

Detroit is a smarter landing spot than all of this. Similar to the Marlins, it's signing a guy a year early.

Giants if they pass on Chapman or Snell is also a possibility.


There are not great fits league wide for Adames and Kim, and why Chapman, Snell, Bellinger, and Montgomery struggled for deals last year. It's not a money thing for Miami. If they pass on these guys, it's because they think they fall apart ala Carl Crawford. I'm not seeing that yet, but who knows.


And yes they should develop and re-sign from within early - that player is Edward Cabrera who you don't want to sign.

Ah so the blue jays are some how rebuilding and not a fit but the rebuilding marlins are? Bichette has a .650 ops.

Jp Crawford is having an awful year.

the dodgers have unlimited money. They had a huge payroll last year and added fucking ohtani, Yamamoto, and glasnow.

also, the brewers can just re-sign him.

all significantly more likely than the marlins winning a bidding war for a 100 million free agent.

also, I don’t want to sign Edward Cabrera long term yet because he is hurt every year and has no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hand. I’m all for signing guys early, and if it’s ridiculously cheap than so be it he is clearly talented, but give me eury long term before we even think about talking about signing anyone else long term. Cabrera has a 1.1 war in 250 career innings

[fish16]

And I don’t think anyone disagrees that Adames would be a great fit, but Sherman is not going to pony up simple as that. I would love to be shocked.

Exactly. I’ve been saying this for years, Lou takes absolutely 0 time to reflect on his consistently outrageous and unrealistic hopes for what we do every fucking offseason. He has said we should sign a 20-25 million “werth signing” for 7 years already. It’s a waste of his time and every one else’s. It’s not going to happen, I’m not sure why it is brought up every year as if it has any chance of happening whatsoever

[Todd]

Any SS is likely going to come from within.

Either they are fine with Otto Lopez being abysmal at the plate because he plays pretty good D. Or Sanoja/Serna break out. Or a young top SS prospect is the headliner in a return for Alcantra.

What they won't do is sign one.

The last name in the Scott deal, Jay Besheaers, is playing SS in Beloit.

[lou]

Ah so the blue jays are some how rebuilding and not a fit but the rebuilding marlins are? Bichette has a .650 ops.

Jp Crawford is having an awful year.

the dodgers have unlimited money. They had a huge payroll last year and added fucking ohtani, Yamamoto, and glasnow.

also, the brewers can just re-sign him.

all significantly more likely than the marlins winning a bidding war for a 100 million free agent.

also, I don’t want to sign Edward Cabrera long term yet because he is hurt every year and has no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hand. I’m all for signing guys early, and if it’s ridiculously cheap than so be it he is clearly talented, but give me eury long term before we even think about talking about signing anyone else long term. Cabrera has a 1.1 war in 250 career innings

Jays losing or paying Vlad and have other IF as explained. It’s not a spot.

Dodgers have showed restraint on luxury aprons and only got Ohtani by being creative there which is intentional. Even then, there are two of them - Adames and Kim. Already said they are next best location.

The brewers with Joey Ortiz are resigning him when they’ve let other contracts ala the Rays go (Burnes). And Turang. What else you got?

Crawford is signed and has been hurt - or is only Arraez allowed to get a hurt mulligan?

Cabrera will be under $25-30m for 5 years with team options based on comps. Ridiculously cheap to pay as a middle reliever for a potential ace starter. Mentioned this many times. Why is this expensive to you

[lou]

Exactly. I’ve been saying this for years, Lou takes absolutely 0 time to reflect on his consistently outrageous and unrealistic hopes for what we do every fucking offseason. He has said we should sign a 20-25 million “werth signing” for 7 years already. It’s a waste of his time and every one else’s. It’s not going to happen, I’m not sure why it is brought up every year as if it has any chance of happening whatsoever

Garcia, Soler, and Segura is an equivalent contract to what Adames/Kim would be. It’s over $100m for those 3 sadly.

So they did spend that. Over 3 players.

Except now they don’t need to spend that over 3 players. Just 1. Because they have depth everywhere at low prices.

They should spend the money they do have under Bruce on 1 better thing versus 3 OK things.

[lou]

Pipeline updated - white # 1, noble a big drop but still top 100. Snelling massive drop. Pauley is pretty low. Good rankings for Mack and Sanjoa. This is interesting.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/marlins/