2024 Game Thread

[lou]

I wouldn't go that far, considering what we got for Rogers, but like I said above, I think I'd rather try to see if he can stay healthy and really make a killing for him at the trade deadline next year.

Yes, or dare I say if healthy just keep him? Buy low on an extension because hurt?

Big picture, if they trade Sandy in 25 or after the season as he's most expensive, and say trade Garrett to the Red Sox this offseason (he's gonna be healthy soon right???) who desperately could use him as a lefty and they can send over that Campbell guy (CF), Meidroth (3B platoon right hander w/ Pauley as a left hander), and other parts Bendix likes (i.e. not Boston's top 4 hitting prospects but two the Marlins could really use), they could drop a 4/$56m extension on Luzardo (two free agency years, similar to what Pablo did years wise??? Drop on two options for $22m a season a piece so could be $100m player over 6 years), and roll out quite a rotation:

-Trade Garrett for SS/3B/CF now options

2025 - Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera (extend him too!), Weathers, Max w/ Eury coming, Bellozzo as an inventory arm, and Snelling, Mazur, Monteverde in AA/AAA

-Trade Sandy for a top tier bat prospect and whatever else

2026 through 2028 - Eury, Luzardo (if extended), Cabrera, Weathers, Max and Snelling, Mazur, Monteverde, and maybe Fulton, Noble, White, A. May, and Shim are creeping up

2029 - Max and Weathers shed off unless extended, and Cabrera too if not extended, but still might have everyone. Let's say Luzardo options not picked up in this hypothetical.... Eury, White, Noble, Snelling, and Fulton/Mazur/Shim/May is your projected top 5 starters in 2029. This is a long time away, but the names and service time are there.


This goes to my constant point - Peter has options. I can see a world Garrett is moved for something like those Red Sox guys, they keep Sandy and Luzardo, extend Luzardo and Cabrera, and they feel pretty good about the SP for a very long time on paper. This is getting 4th/5th SP innings eaters for cheap to build that "injury" depth we mention every year and they don't do. Or maybe Bellozo is actually good. Options galore

[lou]

unless the box score is wrong, they had jacob berry playing 2b last night.

Just increases versatility if he shows something. Why not?

It seems like Burger (HE'S BACK GUYS!), DDLS and Martorella (8 hits, 5 BB last 6 games. Maybe finally waking up) are going to man 1B/DH (with Ramirez as he's probably the "backup" catcher in a best case scenario, and plays a lot of DH to get to a 130+ game starter regardless) for awhile, so it's not a bad idea.

They are just all 2B though. Edwards, Serna. Norby is a 2B only if he is an infielder and not a LF. Sanoja is probably best at 2B. Cappe turned into one even if he is fringe now. No one can play SS or 3B, except maybe Pauley at 3B and Sanoja a little at both but he's a bench projection.

I suppose the positive here is, someone in baseball doesn't have a 2B so if multiple of them make it, there is an asset now to trade.

[nny]

Yes, we are hanging on by a thread here.

Great to see you back posting!

I don’t remember what it was but something a few months ago reminded me of your preseason bid on the Rays in 08 to win the (AL east? AL pennant?) while being terrible their entire existence

A bid that still deserves props 16 years later lol

[nny]

I hate the "quantity over quality" narrative about the deadline. While they didn't target any major top prospect the guys acquired are all still quality. They also went after risers like De Los Santos and Ramirez.

Who knows if any will work out. But to put it in perspective, recent Marlins waiver claim Cristian Pache was the 12th ranked prospect in baseball in 2021.

And the guy running the show came from the team that has operated like this for going on two decades and has made the playoffs 9 times in the last 16 years including two world series.

I also just don’t see how “quantity over quality” is necessarily a bad thing.

Certainly when FOs were just doing the consensus thing when it came to player acquisition, quality was better because probability increases the larger the consensus - it was unlikely for quantity to actually hit

But part of what makes baseball interesting is, compared to most other sports, how much depth matters on a team over having star players. And the Rays have shown how true that is. It’s not that quality is better than quantity, it’s that we couldn’t trust a baseball FO to hit on a quantity trade before

You just need to be able to hit on the quantity. Majority of teams can’t, hopefully Bendix carries it over from the Rays.

In the end lists are nothing more than amateurs arbitrarily arranging other amateurs. I would hope the person running the club is smarter than them

[fish16]

Agree with everything, but the last part is a bit much. He shows some health, they'll get pieces for him. But yes, it was a mistake to not do it if in fact preseason 2024 was the high and I generally agree it *probably* was. That was a miss. But I don't think it's trajectory changing as they have a lot of assets still to work with.

the reason i say that is because luzardo is really one of their last pieces to get a game changing impact bat. they have done a good job restocking the hitting side of the farm with some talent, but none of them appear to be star level bats. If they had traded him for say Mayo and change in the offseason plus done all the moves they have done to date, they could have completely rebuilt the surrounding pieces in the lineup, gotten more depth in the system, AND gotten the corner stone lineup piece, all while still having significant pitching depth. As of now, they are still missing that cornerstone lineup piece, absent one of the guys they acquired really taking off unexpectedly, which i guess is possible. Dont get me wrong, they have a hell of a lot more guys now than they did 5 months ago, but it feels like they still need that 1 guy. Luzardo was their ticket for the long term lineup changing piece (or pieces), and that has probably come and gone at this point.

[nny]

He could have a green light, no major free agent will sign here until this organization as a whole changes how it treats and handles players and overall behaves. This is not a desirable destination, and they will never outbid every other team significantly for a star to be forced to play here. There is a reason why every single player they sign is either a mediocre guy coming off a career year that was unsustainable or a reclamation project coming off a terrible year. Great players will have other options, and those other options will always be a better choice for stars because this is a minor league organization from top to bottom

We were able to sign a shit ton of big names in 2012 even though we were operating like we’ve always been. In the end $ is normally the starting and ending point

The reason they sign mediocre guys is because that’s their price range

[Nick]

We were able to sign a shit ton of big names in 2012 even though we were operating like we’ve always been. In the end $ is normally the starting and ending point

The reason they sign mediocre guys is because that’s their price range

I think 2012 has definitely affected us after the fact though. Not that we would be signing all types of free agents, but there's no doubt the league took notice when we gave all those guys big contracts. Backloaded the fuck out of the contracts so they spent very little money in the first year and then traded those guys within a year.

It's the reason for the clusterfuck of a Stanton contract and the fact that we could get nothing of value for the the reigning MVP. Loria backloaded the fuck out of the contract, but Stanton was like fine give me a no-trade clause. (which Loria never gave) In the end, Loria spent very little on Stanton and the new regime was fucked because of the No-Trade Clause and giant backloaded contract.

[nny]

I’ve been keeping track of attendance for the last 3 years, and somehow attendance is slightly UP this year (the increase has dropped to around 5k overall but still up) to this point in the season. We did have some really big crowds toward the end of the year last year with the push, so I do expect it to become an overall decrease here soon with approx 20 home games left, but it’s shocking to me that attendance hasn’t cratered with the quality (or lack thereof) of the on-field product ….maybe it’s a delayed reaction thing where casual fans heard they were good last year and come to games not realizing they suck now, and we’ll see next years numbers crater?

I can try to post some charts on here via the upload attachments thing if anyone is interested in seeing the graphs?

I think there’s some sunk cost in terms of investing in the team before a season

eg if I’m interested in the Marlins before the season starts, I normally will still check in from time to time even though know the product is ass. But if I’m not interested to begin with, I won’t see a single game or follow at all the entire season.

I’d call it more the playoff hangover rather than a delayed reaction

[nny]

Some guy named Derek Hill just hit a grand slam for the good guys.

Seeing if any of the AAAA guys can stick around at least gives something to watch besides hoping Sanchez and Burger (power is back now that he’s healthy) break out. Plus X’s rookie campaign of course

Given it’s also watching them strike out majority of the time lol

[nny]

it's a bold strategy but bendix is a forward thinker after all

Padres have shown that a team of SS aren’t the answer, the real big brain is a team of 2Bs

[Nick]

Seeing if any of the AAAA guys can stick around at least gives something to watch besides hoping Sanchez and Burger (power is back now that he’s healthy) break out. Plus X’s rookie campaign of course

Given it’s also watching them strike out majority of the time lol

I'd rather see Troy Johnston and Griffin Conine get a shot, but it is what it is.

[nny]

I think 2012 has definitely affected us after the fact though. Not that we would be signing all types of free agents, but there's no doubt the league took notice when we gave all those guys big contracts. Backloaded the fuck out of the contracts so they spent very little money in the first year and then traded those guys within a year.

It's the reason for the clusterfuck of a Stanton contract and the fact that we could get nothing of value for the the reigning MVP. Loria backloaded the fuck out of the contract, but Stanton was like fine give me a no-trade clause. (which Loria never gave) In the end, Loria spent very little on Stanton and the new regime was fucked because of the No-Trade Clause and giant backloaded contract.

Loria’s been doing that since at least Delgado though. It’s also not like there wasn’t 97 before it - given that was 15 years after 97, but we’re also closing in on 15 years since 2012.

2012 was certainly a bigger mark in fucking players though. Mark Beuhlre specifically stands out. But I don’t think it’s that big of a mark since we’re so far removed from it + completely different ownership

[lou]

the reason i say that is because luzardo is really one of their last pieces to get a game changing impact bat. they have done a good job restocking the hitting side of the farm with some talent, but none of them appear to be star level bats. If they had traded him for say Mayo and change in the offseason plus done all the moves they have done to date, they could have completely rebuilt the surrounding pieces in the lineup, gotten more depth in the system, AND gotten the corner stone lineup piece, all while still having significant pitching depth. As of now, they are still missing that cornerstone lineup piece, absent one of the guys they acquired really taking off unexpectedly, which i guess is possible. Dont get me wrong, they have a hell of a lot more guys now than they did 5 months ago, but it feels like they still need that 1 guy. Luzardo was their ticket for the long term lineup changing piece (or pieces), and that has probably come and gone at this point.

I don't necessarily disagree, but I do think Luzardo and especially Sandy can bring back a FV55 still, especially with a good kicker. That being said, many FV50s turn into great players of course so if those are the centerpieces like Ramirez, Bendix just has to hit on them.

Also, they probably get a FV55 bat top 3 picks in 2025 draft FWIW. They could get screwed with the lottery, but its pretty good odds and the top of that draft is a Holliday and some major college OF. Of course, we could say that about Bleday too (but he is now turning into a solid regular even without flashing a true top top upside). They are missing an "it" bat prospect for sure. Ramirez could be special if he can catch and makes it, but this is a collection of good Rays parts with no "Wander" prospect guy for sure to circle it all together. But, they do have the "IT" SP with Eury, Sandy, and maybe Luzardo, Cabrera, Max, and Noble hit their top end ultimately. Half this battle is figured out and a top 5 staff and middle offense is a strong playoff team. This is where.... PAGING BRUCE SHERMAN. HELLO. HELLO. FREE AGENCY TOP END.... could put them over the top

[nny]

I'd rather see Troy Johnston and Griffin Conine get a shot, but it is what it is.

I don’t disagree, but I think waiver guys get priority because your only time to try them out is right now

I would be very surprised if they don’t call up Conine before the end of the year if for nothing else but fan service.

[Nick]

Loria’s been doing that since at least Delgado though. It’s also not like there wasn’t 97 before it - given that was 15 years after 97, but we’re also closing in on 15 years since 2012.

2012 was certainly a bigger mark in fucking players though. Mark Beuhlre specifically stands out. But I don’t think it’s that big of a mark since we’re so far removed from it + completely different ownership

I agree, the new ownership's problem is they simply don't spend. And on the rare occasions they do, they've overspent on mediocrity. (Garcia)