2024 Game Thread

[lou]

Those were just the headliners. Mayer is a top 5 prospect in baseball tho

Gonna take Sandy and Luzardo to get him IMK, and then take back a secondary crew like Campbell, Meidroth, and Criswell in a 4-2 sort of thing.

FV60s have huge surplus value which the FO will weigh. He’s worth more than either SP with 2-3 years only and Sandy is a lot of bucks even if FA SP are more, so the Marlins need to add a second amazing piece, and then take back secondary assets. For instance, Yelich was more valuable when they traded him than both Sandy and Luzardo right now. And that’s assuming health.

They need a lefty SP so it’s Luzardo, Garrett, or Weathers. Houch, Bello, and Crawford are righties to mention so it’s a lefty first.

I think Sandy and Luzardo/Weathers/Garrett on our end and Mayer and Campbell/Bleis on their end (Bleis if I am undercutting it above) is where this starts, and the secondary guys are the secondary guys. Meidroth is a perfect secondary guy. A SS, right handed OF, and 3B platoon guy with Pauley. It’s perfect on paper and the other asset the Marlins get here is clearing $70m off payroll the next two years. They’d have their entire team besides two lefty pitchers next year for like $42m so they’d have room to buy bridge starters to let some marinate in the minors for a bit. Even Bruce spends $80-90m ya know.

I can show the math also if some wants the deep dive but the surplus value isn’t there for a 3 WAR Luzardo and 4 WAR Sandy with their money and 2-3 control years for a FV60. It’s two major SP and then getting an OF and Meidroth, and then throw ins to make it work. He is a Eury value prospect. Think about what we’d want for Eury at the end of his prospect status and it’s not 3 years of Sandy alone at $55m.

[sports24/7]

Gonna take Sandy and Luzardo to get him IMK, and then take back a secondary crew like Campbell, Meidroth, and Criswell in a 4-2 sort of thing.

FV60s have huge surplus value which the FO will weigh. He’s worth more than either SP with 2-3 years only and Sandy is a lot of bucks even if FA SP are more, so the Marlins need to add a second amazing piece, and then take back secondary assets. For instance, Yelich was more valuable when they traded him than both Sandy and Luzardo right now. And that’s assuming health.

They need a lefty SP so it’s Luzardo, Garrett, or Weathers. Houch, Bello, and Crawford are righties to mention so it’s a lefty first.

I think Sandy and Luzardo/Weathers/Garrett on our end and Mayer and Campbell/Bleis on their end (Bleis if I am undercutting it above) is where this starts, and the secondary guys are the secondary guys. Meidroth is a perfect secondary guy. A SS, right handed OF, and 3B platoon guy with Pauley. It’s perfect on paper and the other asset the Marlins get here is clearing $70m off payroll the next two years. They’d have their entire team besides two lefty pitchers next year for like $42m so they’d have room to buy bridge starters to let some marinate in the minors for a bit. Even Bruce spends $80-90m ya know.

I can show the math also if some wants the deep dive but the surplus value isn’t there for a 3 WAR Luzardo and 4 WAR Sandy with their money and 2-3 control years for a FV60. It’s two major SP and then getting an OF and Meidroth, and then throw ins to make it work. He is a Eury value prospect. Think about what we’d want for Eury at the end of his prospect status and it’s not 3 years of Sandy alone at $55m.

If I was a contending team, I’d give up a Eury level prospect for a Cy Young caliber pitcher in his prime at that contract number, without having to think too hard about it. And if money is really such a big factor, the Marlins should easily be able to eat some of it, rather than adding a whole other front line SP.

There was talk that Baltimore would have to give up Holliday for Crochet. Holliday is a better prospect than Mayer.

[lou]

If I was a contending team, I’d give up a Eury level prospect for a Cy Young caliber pitcher in his prime at that contract number, without having to think too hard about it. And if money is really such a big factor, the Marlins should easily be able to eat some of it, rather than adding a whole other front line SP.

There was talk that Baltimore would have to give up Holliday for Crochet. Holliday is a better prospect than Mayer.

I mean, was Holliday moved? That was never going to happen and was probably some beat reporter making up a story. Crochet, who has currently pitched 191 innings in his career, was never going to get traded for the best prospect of the last 4-5 years not named Ohtani, especially since Crochet himself said he wants an extension clearly over $100m with what he is doing (thus making him extremely expensive for a guy there is really not a huge sample size. Sandy has pitched 900 innings, and being 2 years older doesn't really impact just how much of a difference that is). I don't think this is an analogous example. Sandy would never get Holliday. Crochet would never get Holliday. I don't think they'd trade him for Skenes. Bats are safer than arms, especially FV70/65 bats, see Eury. See Crochet who has been injured which is why the innings are so low. See Sandy. See their own guy with Bradish. If the Orioles wanted Crochet, they needed to think about Mayo/Kjerstad, Bradfield, and kickers sort of thing. This is besides the point though.

I agree with you, in a vacuum, you could make that happen with eating some of the payroll (not much, $10-15m over the course of all of it?) but do we like Sandy-Mayer 1-1? I feel you have to spread the wealth with at least two big guys, and I'd rather shoot for a FV55/FV50 combo versus one FV60 ultimately as the Marlins still do have a few short/longterm holes on paper (SS, 3B, right handed OF, and if they do trade one of Eury/Luzardo/Sandy, a longterm 1/2/3 SP, with the footnote maybe Cabrera is in fact that person if he gets his shit together or Max hits his super top end). They need to keep filling them.

I could type a lot of semi-complicated ideas of how to get the Marlins guys they need from the Red Sox, but a lowest common denominator is Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Criswell are RHP. It's a lefty. It is Luzardo. And they have Garrett, Weathers, Snelling, White, and Fulton longterm so there is depth here.

I think it's something like the Jazz deal, maybe throw in Bender too as they could use a solid RP and Bender hits arb so save the $500k for papa Bruce. Something like: Bleis, Campbell, Meidroth, and a lower FV40 for Luzardo and Bender. I don't think they move Teel. They have OF so Bleis is screaming as a centerpiece to me as the Marlins do need that kind of guy. Pipeline doesn't like Campbell as much as FG, so maybe its a better last player to make up for that if FG is drunk, but I think we'd all agree he looks intriguing even with major BABIP inflation - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kr...position=2B/OF

That sets up this.... summer 2026 doing nothing else:

C Ramirez, Mack (Banfield)
1B/DH Burger/DDLS, DDLS/Martorella (Berry)
2B Edwards, Serna
SS ______
3B Pauley, Meidroth
LF Norby
CF Campbell/Bleis, Sanoja
RF Bleis/Sanchez/Stowers/Marsee

RHP Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Max, Mazur, Cronin, Maldonado, Faucher (Noble)
LHP Garrett, Weathers, Snelling, Nardi, Simpson (Fulton, White)


Payroll is low. Under $60m low including Stanton/Garcia money. So you need a SS, maybe a luxury upgrade 3B/RF if they don't work out, and likely 1 high leverage RP? You still have room with Adames, and can trade Sandy (cuts $17m off of that), to fill the holes needed too.

Its just Luzardo for me with a Red Sox hypothetical. Mayer would be amazing, but I just can't see a path without Sandy/Luzardo combo, but I'd be all into that as look at the depth chart above and swap Mayer for Sandy, take out Bleis only so the OF is Norby-Campbell-Sanchez effectively, and now I tell you payroll is like $47m. And you can drop that to $40 without Burger and Sanchez.

This is in the $40 millions and $15m of that is Garcia and Stanton

C Ramirez, Mack (Banfield)
1B/DH DDLS, Martorella (Berry)
2B Edwards, Serna
SS Mayer
3B Pauley, Meidroth
LF Norby
CF Campbell, Sanoja
RF Stowers/Marsee

RHP Eury, Cabrera, Max, Mazur, Cronin, Maldonado, Faucher, Pushard/Ekness (Noble)
LHP Garrett, Weathers, Snelling, Nardi, Simpson (Fulton, White)

Pick and choose a mountain of luxury upgrades with this at $40m, which is probably a 3B, corner OF, 3rd/4th starters, and luxury relievers. Remember, Noble, White, Head, Fulton, VMJR, Berry, Santana, Morlando, C. Johnson, Cova, Aldermann, and a top 3 pick in 2025 draft is leading the farm (plus Burger and Sanchez trade returns), so its potentially monstrous down there.

So yea the Red Sox make sense here, but it's both. Sandy/Luzardo and Mayer (and secondary parts) is that plant the flag "quality over quantity" prospect move they have not done to date with the Arraez and Scott deals.


Kind of love this actually assuming Bruce spends $90m bucks. Peter having a $40-50m budget on top of that team above is something. Major $20m+ player, a good $10-12m one, and 2-3 flyers quickly. And likely not losing anyone as they have options going to AAA, etc.

[rmc523]

Why should we have any reason to believe Bruce would want to spend that?

[Namaste]

Why should we have any reason to believe Bruce would want to spend that?

Hasn't he already had $90+ payrolls?

[lou]

Hasn't he already had $90+ payrolls?

Yes, which is where I too am not getting the point.


24 - $92 (opening day). This is probably closer to $80m shedding the contracts now
23 - $92 (ballooned closer to $110m for push)
22 - $79
21 - $56

If they slash and burn payroll (which they are), I think $79-110m is completely unacceptable, but a low $90m payroll should be in play IMO. That is money to spend in 2025. The floor here is probably $80m. That's a 4 year effective average.

This is going to be like $52-53m if they trade Luzardo and Bender. The biggest three expenditures are Sandy ($17), Garcia ($12 sigh), and Sanchez is going to be $3m something because Cabrera and Garrett will have arb impacted by being hurt. Burger from lack of performance for half the season, etc.


C Ramirez, Fortes (Banfield, Mack)
1B Burger, DDLS (Martorella, Berry)
2B Edwards, Otto (Serna)
SS ______
3B ______
LF Norby, Stowers
CF ______, Sanoja (Mesa Jr)
RF Sanchez (Dane)

SP Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, _______ (Eury)
RHP ____ Cronin, Faucher, Maldonado, Munoz(bulk starter) (Bellozo)
LHP Nardi, Weathers(bulk starter), ______ (Simpson)

+ Players for Luzardo and Bender
+ $30-40m give or take minimum


They need a more legitimate SP as you need 7 (Weathers is 6, Eury is 7, and Bellozo/Munoz can be 7 early on to make way for Eury, and then Snelling ideally becomes 8 in August) anyways, some relievers, and three very legitimate starters. Luzardo gets 2 blank lines It's probably a SS and CF. There is nothing in FA besides Adames. So then FA is probably someone like Yoan Moncada at 3B - i.e. cheap - and you have a lot of money you can spend on pitching, or maybe Stowers falls flat on his audition. He has an option and sign an OF, etc. The possibilities are endless.


Then get crazy and trade Sandy off of this and do the same team for $35m, and add another +2 lines on that as he is getting 2 names and now you have $50m dollars to spend on 3 players. Or maybe they don't spend it as 2025 is not circled at that point, and 2026 payroll is extremely trim.

We're at the point where they don't need to trim payroll TBH which I would keep 1 of Sandy or Luzardo. But, there is 1 more SP trade here to get 2 more bats and then it's free agency to plug holes.

$52m and give Adames $25m, and if Bruce is spending $90m, there is still $10m+ to spend on 3 arms (innings eater, 2 relievers) as presumably Luzardo traded for 2 bats. And in that event, I'll take my chances with a shitty 6th SP until Eury shows up. Or Snelling. Or maybe Todd is right and Mazur. Or Noble is a prodigy.


This is cheaper than 2023 and 2024 opening day and I'll bet money the two RP are club controlled finds so thats a $10m+ 1 year FA starter that isn't bad

C Ramirez, Fortes (Banfield, Mack)
1B Burger, DDLS (Martorella, Berry)
2B Edwards, Otto (Serna)
SS Adames
3B Dude for Luzardo/Bender
LF Norby, Stowers
CF Dude for Luzardo/Bender, Sanoja (Mesa Jr)
RF Sanchez (Dane)

SP Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, FA SP (Eury)
RHP FA RP Cronin, Faucher, Maldonado, Munoz(bulk starter) (Bellozo)
LHP Nardi, Weathers(bulk starter), FA RP (Simpson)


And if it doesn't work? Burger, Sanchez, Sandy, Nardi, and other relievers can be traded for another haul, and ignoring those trade returns, Martorella, Pauley, Eury, and any RP may be able to replace them on the active roster so what are they spending money on for luxury upgrades then? As said directly after the deadline, you can see the plan and Peter is executing hit. He has to hit on the kids, but its time to give them their chances soon. Basically, Bruce sucks - but he spends in a manner where Peter can operate here. Peter is doing his job. Hit on the kids now. The names and positions are almost there.

[fish16]

gordon DFA'd. Nice idea and not a bad pickup for Okert who stinks, he just never had the consistency. Opens up playing time for Stowers and maybe Norby hopefully.

[Todd]

I hate the "quantity over quality" narrative about the deadline. While they didn't target any major top prospect the guys acquired are all still quality. They also went after risers like De Los Santos and Ramirez.

Who knows if any will work out. But to put it in perspective, recent Marlins waiver claim Cristian Pache was the 12th ranked prospect in baseball in 2021.

And the guy running the show came from the team that has operated like this for going on two decades and has made the playoffs 9 times in the last 16 years including two world series.

[rmc523]

Hasn't he already had $90+ payrolls?

I just feel like they were sort of “hold over” levels of payroll, so I’ll be surprised if he ok’s that level again.

[Namaste]

Gordon's -0.7 WAR wasn't cutting it for our revamped series-splitting in Atlanta Miami Marlins lineup

[fish16]

luzardo pretty much out for the year. 6 more weeks of no-throw on the latest update.

[lou]

luzardo pretty much out for the year. 6 more weeks of no-throw on the latest update.

I just saw.

Fuuuuck. 1-2 healthy starts would have been great.

Big big spring training

This will depress his arbitration a million or more however as I was expecting 5-7 more starts.

[lou]

I just feel like they were sort of “hold over” levels of payroll, so I’ll be surprised if he ok’s that level again.

This is defeatist. It will be do they think they can contend, it will go up. 2025 may be the second pivot year for Peter.


So when they don't do anything (Adames) and sign guys (Moncada), we'll know they think the kids need a year of growth and this is just a hope and prayer season and hope the SP is top 5 so they can be in it like July like Seattle.

[Nick]

This is defeatist. It will be do they think they can contend, it will go up. 2025 may be the second pivot year for Peter.


So when they don't do anything (Adames) and sign guys (Moncada), we'll know they think the kids need a year of growth and this is just a hope and prayer season and hope the SP is top 5 so they can be in it like July like Seattle.

Based on what evidence?

[lou]

I hate the "quantity over quality" narrative about the deadline. While they didn't target any major top prospect the guys acquired are all still quality. They also went after risers like De Los Santos and Ramirez.

Who knows if any will work out. But to put it in perspective, recent Marlins waiver claim Cristian Pache was the 12th ranked prospect in baseball in 2021.

And the guy running the show came from the team that has operated like this for going on two decades and has made the playoffs 9 times in the last 16 years including two world series.

I mean yes they did good overall, but Jason Adam got a better prospect (Lesko) then Snelling and Mazur. Lesko went to.... the Rays. The Scott deal is a good deal in a vacuum, but you do have to pick your shots and this seems like a missed opportunity with Scott in particular, as frankly, I think they have a lot of emerging depth now so why not go for the huge huge guy.

It's a smaller deal but I think this may be happening. That DLC deal is not "safe." They went with a too the moon prospect with Shim which I think is great. It's a great get here. This is what I want to see next - if Luzardo or Sandy is shipped, your Mayer idea is the idea for sure. Or Brooks Lee. Or someone we are all YES on immediately that solves that longterm SS/3B problem now in 2025. Like Bleis and friends work for Luzardo, but lets win some ball games and get 1 dude and not worry about getting a "Pauley" as a third player.

That's it for me. "No more Pauleys." Max out on 1-2 player packages as the depth is there. Throw in depth (add Bender to Luzardo, etc.) to get the FV40 "Meidroth" added, etc.

Same with the draft - maybe don't do the underslot/overslot thing again. Bang it out too the moon. Which is easier with getting a top 1-4 pick next year, but still.