2024 Game Thread

[lou]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Bellozo still interesting. SSS of 20+ innings, but he is showing an elite cutter, and is causing just enough confusion with throwing a sweeper to righties, a changeup to lefties, and a random curveball every 15-20 pitches (all of which get hit pretty hard to note), to have it all play against his 90 MPH fastball which is somehow, grading as above average because of all of it. It's a Lugo profile. Have one good pitch (Lugo has 2 though) and a ton of pitches (Lugo is doing 7-8 though not 5) and even if they collectively aren't great, the confusion/kitchen sink approach pays off as keeps guys off balance.

I'm not sure this holds up as the league catches up to him with a scouting report as I imagine it is zero'ing in on the fastball/sinker/changeups and trying to avoid the cutter at all costs, but if he keeps throwing strikes (solid BB rate so far), he's got a 5th/innings eater chance for sure as the quantity becomes the quality. The difference here with Munoz (also throwing 5 pitches, 1 good and 4 getting blasted) is that Bellozo's control is keeping him alive where Munoz is walking folks so they have less ability to avoid swinging. More importantly, 2 option years for 25 and 26 for Bellozo. This might be what we hoped Monteverde would be - the AAA innings eater that pops up and doesn't embarrass for a few years.

I'm intrigued, and I say this with the expectations this is the team's 7th/8th SP through 2026 and maybe crafts that "longman" spot as last man in the pen. There is value in that. This was an ignored trade with Amaya going to Houston, but this might be a good one all things considered.

[lou]

Fluff article but DDLS in running to be MLB pipeline MiLB hitter of the year - https://www.mlb.com/news/minor-leagu...andidates-2024

Another fluff article - Joe Mack ascending as a prospect - https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-top-pro...eline-coverage


What I find most interesting though is K. Campbell is here for Boston. A FV45+ on fangraphs CF prospect for Red Sox. I've mentioned him as a guy I'd love from the Marlins assuming FG's ranking is more correct than him being 30th in Red Sox system, but the mention here he is "now a top 100 candidate." This is a real FV45+ ascending dude similar to Serna. So MLB isn't updated and Fangraphs is more updated right now. This is a huge target IMO. The TLDR is the Red Sox have absolutely no left handed arms in their organization and an abundance of CF, so this could be Luzardo/Garrett centerpiece maybe or a perfect 2nd player. We'll see what happens as there are 2 months with everyone, but I don't think this is Sandy. I'd love Mayer too for him, but they really have nothing left handed anywhere and Bleis and Campbell seem like the targets from them for Luzardo or Garrett.

[fish16]

it doesnt really make much sense to trade sandy to me. at least until next years deadline. They have rotation talent, but they need a #1 horse who can eat a shit ton of innings. i dont think it will work, but with the guys they got in the deadline trades they probably think a few can come in and produce in the next year or 2, and sandy is under team control for 3 more years AFTER this year at a very reasonable salary. Just keep him and see how some of these young guys do. If he comes back and performs well, he could either lead us to compete earlier, or he still has a shit ton of value after next year with 2 more years left. They shouldnt have to baby him too much next year at all. He didnt have his TJ surgery this april, it was last november or october. He should have a full 18 months of rehab to build himself up and be right back to normal.

Luzardo is the one to deal with the injury history he has if he still has the high value he should. not trading him last offseason when they clearly planned on gutting this team and rebuilding the new regimes way is still a completely inexplicable move. if it took 1 month of injuries and bad performance to trade arraez, clearly they had every intention of gutting this team no matter what. so to not trade luzardo as a pitcher coming off a fully healthy season with an immense amount of value might be the difference between this rebuild working and being another disappointment.

[rmc523]

I think the thing is - there is a just a floor of hey lets go to the game.

They are at the floor IMO. It can only get lower if you enter an Oakland type situation of we're moving, so then no one even goes at all.


It's the constant comment - invest in your business and people will come. If you build it, they will come. It so true and especially in Miami.

Eh, except attendance was lower in 2022 (and probably before that, I don’t have those numbers offhand), so I disagree that we’re at the floor.

[Nick]

Can we at least see what this fucking supposed stacked rotation that we've been dreaming about for the last 5 years would even look like before we trade Sandy?

[fish16]

Can we at least see what this fucking supposed stacked rotation that we've been dreaming about for the last 5 years would even look like before we trade Sandy?

completely agree. At this point with the trades, they have done somewhat of a good job of getting a few pieces that could theoretically produce at the big league level in the next year or 2. I would definitely not take what sandy brings for granted just because he is injured right now. Currently, we have the 29th best WAR among SP's in baseball this year. Obviously Garrett, Eury, Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, and Weathers have all missed significant time (jesus fucking christ), but pitchers get injured. Especially ours. Prior to the TJ, which is like a right of passage in baseball nowadays, he had no injury history. Let him come back and see what we have to start next year, then lets see what we need to do with the lineup.

Sandy, Luzardo, Weathers, Garrett, Cabrera, with eury coming back mid season, plus meyer, snelling, mazur, and then probably in 2026 the other meyer and white coming along, things look good on paper, but they have looked good on paper for like 4 years now and it hasnt actually turned out.

Keep the pitchers (other than luzardo if his value is high still), see what Ramirez, Norby, DLS, Serna, Stowers, Pauley, Marsee, Martorella, etc. do in the next year, then see what the path ahead is. Trading sandy would be a major mistake.

[Nick]

At this point I say keep Luzardo too, I know asking prices for starters at the deadline was insane, but how high can his stock be, right now? Give him a chance to show he can be healthy in 2025. Deal him at the deadline.

[Namaste]

so I disagree that we’re at the floor.

So they're not at the floor after trading Arraez, Jazz and Tanner Scott?

I think Lou's dead right that there's always going to be the hey-let's-go-to-the-game crowd (remember, not everyone is an hour+ commute from the ballpark) and we are extremely close to that.

The only piece left that can move the needle more is Sandy. Luzardo will not move the needle if traded.

[Nick]

So they're not at the floor after trading Arraez, Jazz and Tanner Scott?

I think Lou's dead right that there's always going to be the hey-let's-go-to-the-game crowd (remember, not everyone is an hour+ commute from the ballpark) and we are extremely close to that.

The only piece left that can move the needle more is Sandy. Luzardo will not move the needle if traded.

I wouldn't go that far, considering what we got for Rogers, but like I said above, I think I'd rather try to see if he can stay healthy and really make a killing for him at the trade deadline next year.

[fish16]

At this point I say keep Luzardo too, I know asking prices for starters at the deadline was insane, but how high can his stock be, right now? Give him a chance to show he can be healthy in 2025. Deal him at the deadline.

agree on him too. if the value is there, then id say the depth we have plus what he could theoretically command would make it worth it. but i cant imagine off an injury filled season he can get us a package of hitters that makes sense to deal. Go into next year with Sandy, Garret, Luzardo, Cabrera, Weathers, and Meyer, plus snelling, mazur, meyer, and white in the pipeline, plus eury coming back at some point next year. Then when we have more of a sample size on edwards as well as the other guys we have gotten over the last month, reevaluate and see where we are. We have had a "surplus" of SP for like 5 years, and it has almost never actually been a surplus because of injuries.

[fish16]

So they're not at the floor after trading Arraez, Jazz and Tanner Scott?

I think Lou's dead right that there's always going to be the hey-let's-go-to-the-game crowd (remember, not everyone is an hour+ commute from the ballpark) and we are extremely close to that.

The only piece left that can move the needle more is Sandy. Luzardo will not move the needle if traded.

that crowd is extremely small. we had the lowest crowd of the season last night. the only reason the announced attendance is as high as it is on weekdays is because of season tickets. it probably cant get much smaller this year. I could absolutely see season tickets dwindling even further next year though. why anyone would by season tickets is beyond me. The organization needs to show a commitment to winning. The panthers games used to be empty as well. Ownership changed, the front office became competent, and now they are a powerhouse in broward and the games are great to go to.

Ive been saying it for years. Nothing will change here if ownership doesnt change entirely or start spending money. we are stuck in purgatory where the owner doesnt give a fuck, which causes no one to care about the team, which causes minimal attendance, which in turn the owner uses to justify low payrolls, and then the circle of mediocrity continiues. The owner doesnt spend without fans coming, and the fans dont come because the owner doesnt spend. this will not change without an up front investment in this team from a guy with deeper pockets who invests a ton of capital in the team on the field and really the franchise overall. It really is as simple as that. If we got a mark cuban to buy the team, come in and commit to $150 million payrolls, we would have drastically higher attendance. This team gives 0 reason for its fans to root for it. and the owner either doesnt give a fuck, or doesnt have enough money to do what is needed. Not sure which one would be more concerning.

[fish16]

unless the box score is wrong, they had jacob berry playing 2b last night.

[Nick]

unless the box score is wrong, they had jacob berry playing 2b last night.

Their plan is for all players in the organization to be 2nd baseman.

[fish16]

Their plan is for all players in the organization to be 2nd baseman.

it's a bold strategy but bendix is a forward thinker after all

[lou]

it doesnt really make much sense to trade sandy to me. at least until next years deadline. They have rotation talent, but they need a #1 horse who can eat a shit ton of innings. i dont think it will work, but with the guys they got in the deadline trades they probably think a few can come in and produce in the next year or 2, and sandy is under team control for 3 more years AFTER this year at a very reasonable salary. Just keep him and see how some of these young guys do. If he comes back and performs well, he could either lead us to compete earlier, or he still has a shit ton of value after next year with 2 more years left. They shouldnt have to baby him too much next year at all. He didnt have his TJ surgery this april, it was last november or october. He should have a full 18 months of rehab to build himself up and be right back to normal.

Luzardo is the one to deal with the injury history he has if he still has the high value he should. not trading him last offseason when they clearly planned on gutting this team and rebuilding the new regimes way is still a completely inexplicable move. if it took 1 month of injuries and bad performance to trade arraez, clearly they had every intention of gutting this team no matter what. so to not trade luzardo as a pitcher coming off a fully healthy season with an immense amount of value might be the difference between this rebuild working and being another disappointment.

Agree with everything, but the last part is a bit much. He shows some health, they'll get pieces for him. But yes, it was a mistake to not do it if in fact preseason 2024 was the high and I generally agree it *probably* was. That was a miss. But I don't think it's trajectory changing as they have a lot of assets still to work with.