2024 Game Thread

[Todd]

There really aren't signs with Sanchez. He had a hot June due to a BABIP of close to .400. His wrc+ and ops+ are still below average.

[fish16]

There really aren't signs with Sanchez. He had a hot June due to a BABIP of close to .400. His wrc+ and ops+ are still below average.

his baseball savant page has good hard hit numbers and expected numbers, but i dont think it means much because his plate discipline is so fucking terrible that it lowers the ceiling tremendously. that's why he consistently puts up average at best numbers despite the good peripherals. it isnt bad luck, it's mostly awful plate discipline. Plus the complete inability to hit lefties.

[rmc523]

I think the biggest reason is value. I think you are starting to see signs with Sanchez that there could be more. So if he’s not worth very much now, why rush to trade him? With DLC, I think it might have more to do with the fact that you’ll have to fill out your roster the next two years and you have a lot of control there. So again, if he’s not going to really get you anything, you might as well hang on to him. But I’m with you that if he has any value, I’d trade him now, because I’m not sure his value will get any better.

I guess I’m in the mindset of we’ve been waiting for Sanchez to turn a corner for how many years now?

[lou]

I guess I’m in the mindset of we’ve been waiting for Sanchez to turn a corner for how many years now?

I think he has turned that corner, he's just a really solid platoon guy and that's fine. His last 700 PA is a 2.3 WAR which is very solid. Yes he only got to that number by being sheltered on LHP, but that does matter and shows how you can get value out of him. His production is pretty good and when viewed relative to the rest of baseball (extremely important here).... he currently has the 75th best OPS vs RHP (min. 50 PA), and he is sandwiched in between I kid you not Luis Robert and Brandon Nimmo. And he is underachieving according to statcast and everything always regresses to the mean so there is room for improvement there.

Even as a heavy platoon side guy, he is easily somewhere in the top 150-200 overall position players in baseball which is not insignificant and there is upside for more especially in the power department and potentially defensively moving him to a less demanding LF with a team that has 2 better defensive OF. He is ultimately, a very good starter vs RHP, has shown that for years, and a legit contender will be able to work around playing someone else on lefties. I love guys like this personally - the Joc Pedersons and Lamonte Wades. What's not to love about a great 450 PA?

I'm fine with being in a minority here, but I think there is absolutely a market for Sanchez if they want to move him. If they think a larger .875+ OPS vs RHP breakout is coming, sure keep him, but I'll bank he is relatively is who he is and he's just going to be around an .800 OPS RHP bat for a few years before the whiffs really catch up to him. Big here, he is going to cost 3/$12-15m the next 3 years or thereabouts and each next year is not guaranteed via arbitration. That's so cheap for real teams. Joc Pederson signed a 1/$12.5m deal this offseason for perspective of a similar player and his last 700 PA against virtually all RHP.... 2.5 WAR. Sanchez is younger and potentially ascending. I'm not saying Sanchez is independently worth a top 100 guy here, but if the Marlins are going to suck, he makes a lot of sense for a team looking for offense to get him. Especially in a package.

Just to beat the Mariners drum, this is their splits on LHP

Garver .858 OPS (All 2024)
Crawford .832
Julio .793
Raleigh .782
Moore .765
Robles .729 (This is career line as new to them this year. He has always hit them a little)

Pretty good base lineup TBH, as Rojas is a 7th solid starter with his defense.

Comparatively, their best hitter against RHP is Luke Raley at a .743 OPS. YUCK.

Jazz is barely above that this year (.748, but career .796) and Sanchez is smoking that at a .797 (career .785). Overall, those two are a massive 2 player acquisition for them as Jazz seemingly is holding his own against LHP now so their LHP lineup would go 8 deep of pretty good options, and both of them slot in quickly into the top 5 of their lineup versus RHP. He may not be for everyone, but for the right team and situation, Sanchez is a huge get IMO which is the point here. He's a huge get for Seattle which is potentially great for us (ignoring Bruce). The Marlins should drive a hard bargain here, but it is malpractice to not see if Seattle will give an appropriate package for those 2 which doesn't necessarily have to include Ford, Young, or Emerson as their farm is deep which ultimately is just a great deal for Seattle. Why not take Celestin, Montes/Farmelo, Peete/Arroyo/Joseph, and J. Polanco (salary dump for $4m or so) in a 4-2. We can groan those are all 18/19 year olds, but in a vacuum I think we'd all approve of that 3 player prospect package for 2.33 years of Jazz and 3.33 years of Sanchez. It's really not out of the question here and if I'm wrong, add in Bender who would be useful for them and isn't a rental. Just saying here, when you look over the fence at what other teams have and need, Sanchez is deceptively valuable as a bat for some of these folks. I do hope we see smart baseball moves regardless of how they shake out.

[lou]

if you can only pencil in 2 spots for the future lineup, with one of them being a guy with 192 career at bats, and the other being a guy that currently has a .635 OPS at the all star break, your team is in complete shambles and has no shot of competing in the next 3 years. Especially with a farm system with nothing impressive in terms of future lineup pieces.

this is why i said the arraez trade was a disgrace and very clearly demonstrated 0 desire to compete and an inevitable 3+ year rebuild and it was met with criticism by those who couldnt see the very obvious plan and will excuse anything here like namaste. They had a path forward by keeping arraez and jazz and trading luzardo and fringe pieces and spending a little money in free agency. They have ruined that path forward. As i said the day arraez was traded, they just ruined any hope whatsoever that this team can compete for a playoff spot any time soon. it's not being hyperbolic to say that, it's the reality of anyone who can see past their homer glasses.

That great SP "depth" will be decimated by injuries and trades to rebuild the lineup, and the cycle will repeat itself. Im sure that will do great things for an already indifferent fanbase, which will lead to even worse crowds, which will lead to even worse spending, which will lead to even worse crowds, which will lead to even worse spending, and so on and so forth. It starts with ownership. There is no path forward until he sells the team. I havent watched a game since april and im a diehard fan. and you expect others to invest in this shit? they have 0 awareness. no one is sticking around for this circle 2028 bullshit. its fucking 2024

The bold would solve everything, but I don't have many notes here otherwise.

Absent that, the farm system will be stacked August 1, 2025 once the final tradeoffs of this generation of guys is complete (i.e. Sandy). Will we care is the question.

[sports24/7]

I guess I’m in the mindset of we’ve been waiting for Sanchez to turn a corner for how many years now?

Sure. I’m not holding my breath, or anything. But I’d imagine you’re not getting much of anything for him now, so what’s the rush? I’d rather wait and see if you can get something of value rather than just trade him now just to trade him, essentially. If they can find someone willing to put some value on him now, then by all means trade him.

[Todd]

You could probably get a Po-Yu Chen level prospect from the Pirates for Sanchez.

[lou]

You could probably get a Po-Yu Chen level prospect from the Pirates for Sanchez.

Come on here. The only Pirates who have produced more than Sanchez since the start of 2023 are Reynolds and Hayes. Cruz would also be above him but for his injury. Sanchez is probably the 4th best position player on the Pirates as an unspectacular, heavy platoon side starter. Is that all relative where he'd be the 8th-10th best bat on the Dodgers, Braves, Orioles, Astros, or Phillies? Absolutely. But their teams are also insane and that's not the benchmark. When you scale down just a little, he'd be the 7th best position player on the Red Sox or Guardians and probably 6th on the Mariners. All of them are contenders and he'd be heavy platoon side starting for the average playoff contender. See above where Sanchez is around the 75th best hitter in the league against RHP and has paced as a 2+ WAR player last 700 PA. Real solid dude for someone to deploy 2/3rds the time. Cheap too. I understand this is a sarcastic non-serious post of doom and gloom with the Marlins, but lets have some perspective on the landscape of baseball, how good of a hitter he actually is against RHP, having 3 control years and he doesn't have huge counting stats to not have big arbitration numbers, and having trade deadline availability.

Also let's look at trade deadline availability. Probably missing a name or two, but this is the rough tiers to me:

Great epic moves, but expensive $$$/prospects - L. Robert, maybe Vlad Jr.

Real good w/ control years and lower salaries, but will be expensive in prospects - Jazz and Rooker

Solid dudes with cheap control years - J. Sanchez (RHP killer), L. Thomas (LHP killer)
Solid dude with low control years - B. Rodgers (also LHP killer)
Solid dude with expensive control years - Arozarena (LHP killer at this stage, will be expensive based on past performance)

Good rental types - D. Jansen (because catcher), Winker (RHP killer)

Guys - J. Bell, Rosario, Urshela, Stallings(What a jerk!), etc. types


He frankly could be a top 5 bat moved this deadline as Robert, Vlad, Rooker, Thomas, Rodgers, and Arozarena all likely won't be moved as they may just be retained. Offense is down everywhere. Teams needing some bats are going to be looking for it wherever they can find it. You could do a lot worse than Sanchez IMO and that in itself, is valuable.

I think they'd get Brannigan/De Los Santos/Delgado and Mueth/Matoma (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pittsbur...rospects-2024/) as a floor from the Pirates for him. That's not very exciting and similar to Martorella and Marsee in value, but that's a long way from what you're talking about here. This is why I think Sanchez value is attached in a package to someone. He shines a lot more there using him as a kicker to target FV50/FV45+ guys with Jazz or Scott.

[fish16]

stallings will end up somewhere between where he was with us and where he was in pittsburgh by the end of the year. he got off to a hot start but he's been awful since the beginning of june. and someone will end up getting josh bell as a dh for the rest of the year (probably for free with us eating the rest of the money) and get a nice switch hitting bat with a good track record.

[Namaste]

Might go see Jazz and Tanner play one more time in a Marlins uniform this week. I haven't gone to a game since Opening Day (it's a long story but for the first time in about 6 years I didn't get the 10 game plan).

[sports24/7]

Jim Callis from MLB Pipine made a list of the top 6 draft hauls, and has Miami 6th.

6. Marlins
Though the Marlins had just the 16th-highest bonus pool, they landed more Draft Top 250 dudes in the first 10 rounds with nine, one more than the Guardians and Pirates. When Florida State third baseman Cam Smith and Wake Forest third baseman/outfielder Seaver King didn't make it to No. 16, Miami pivoted to South Carolina prep outfielder PJ Morlando because it believed in his power and athleticism more than most clubs. While he wasn't a consensus first-rounder, taking Morlando saved money to spend later. Alabama high school shortstop Carter Johnson drew some late first-round interest, but the Marlins were able to slide him to the middle of the second round. They added a third prepster in Colorado right-hander Grant Shephardson (fifth round) but also stockpiled Draft Top 250 collegians with Oregon State righty Aiden May (supplemental second), Alabama infielder Gage Miller (third), Georgia Tech shortstop Payton Green (sixth), Portland righty Nick Brink (seventh), East Carolina outfielder Jacob Jenkins-Cowart (eighth) and UC Irvine third baseman Dub Gleed (ninth).

[sports24/7]

Since we were talking about Jesus Sanchez. The Athletic put out an article using players who had a big 2nd half last year to try and predict who will this year. And Sanchez made their list.

EDIT: It's not letting me post it. Here's the link you you have a subscription: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/564...alf-all-stars/

[fish16]

Mish saying that the return for jazz won’t be as much as expected and will be lower level guys. As everything they have done for months has indicated. I don’t think he nets a top 100 guy. I think, as I said the other day, they will get recent IFA high level signings

[lou]

Since we were talking about Jesus Sanchez. The Athletic put out an article using players who had a big 2nd half last year to try and predict who will this year. And Sanchez made their list.

EDIT: It's not letting me post it. Here's the link you you have a subscription: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/564...alf-all-stars/

Yes he is a very quiet trade asset. It only takes 1 believer, and someone is going to believe that xwOBA and take a swing IMO. It's a real floor of a very competent starter against RHP and he's going to cost like $3.5m tops next year. There is huge profit potential here unless the Marlins are asking for something stupid.

Unless they think he's going to really hit his stride and become a consistent .875-900 OPS bat against RHP, he is what he is value wise and he's expendable since 2025 and probably 2026 are no way circled if what Fish16 is saying is true about low level guys (I don't necessarily disagree at all).

[lou]

Mish saying that the return for jazz won’t be as much as expected and will be lower level guys. As everything they have done for months has indicated. I don’t think he nets a top 100 guy. I think, as I said the other day, they will get recent IFA high level signings

I did a real deep dive into the Mariners, and the TLDR is they really need to hold onto Ford, Emerson, Young, Montes, Bliss, Clase, Locklear, and Williamson (their top bat prospects A+ and higher) because they'll all show up when Gilbert, Kirby, Raleigh, Munoz, and Raley scale up in payroll so it offsets everything. They took 10 arms (9 college arms) first 12 picks of their draft, so they are aiming to have a large arm inventory ready for 2026/2027 when all the bats have arrived for a year or so. They must be really convinced about their bat situation, and i agree with them.

What they need short term is a 2B/3B and OF who can hit RHP right now. What they need longterm is a 3B or OF starter. This is why I bring Jazz up as he is "perfect" now and later. Sanchez and every Marlins reliever is also perfect for them short and maybe longterm.

Based on Mariners needs, plus getting max value out of Jazz, I'd say this is the trade:

Jazz
x
(1) Celesten/Farmelo (FV50 2B or CF/OF), (2) Peete(FV45+ SS), and (3) any A-ball guy FV40 ranked 15-25 in their farm. Someone like Aidan Smith maybe.
(https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seattle-...rospects-2024/)

If I am wrong, it could be dropping in Bender and/or Brazoban/Chargois also (these are all big bullpen upgrades for them), and grabbing another low-end FV40 guy.

If you add Sanchez and/or Puk, it gets a lot more expensive for them. I'll spare endless hypotheticals with that but they can go for it with all of Celesten, Farmelo, and Peete if Sanchez and Puk get in there for sure.


It is effectively 3 guys in A ball if it's say Farmelo, Peete, and Smith circling 2027/2028 (similar to D. Head.... yes I know your position on that). I'm not sure what Mish is saying here, but if folks expect Ford/Young/Emerson, I would agree that doesn't happen, but I do think the Mariners lower level guys make sense in a vacuum and that's not a low return. That's a normal return. If they get lower than that, Bendix sucks or is a genius and identifying guys better than scouting services. Ignoring how the fuck are we here kicking things to 27/28 with these arms and why is Bruce so cheap?

Anyways, you can sign me up for Farmelo, Peete, and effectively a throw-in, for Jazz and a RHP reliever throw-in. That is really fair. Farmelo is a top 100 on FG but not pipeline, and Peete is similar to Head for sky high upside but years away. I'm just accepting they are going to kick the can multiple years so it's just getting the value. Sigh.