2024 Game Thread

[lou]

is ford realistic though? I think that is way too high end of a prospect as a headliner for jazz, especially at a premium position like C, closer to the big leagues. MLB has him at 23, though BA has him at 72.

If it's the mariners, i think you're looking at something closer to Montes and celestin, who are at 52 and 91 with MLB and are further away from the big leagues. BA has celestin at 95 and montes at 29.

Who the fuck knows with those spreads

I like Celestin and Arroyo personally, and they fit the bill for what the other trades have indicated is their preference at the moment, whether we all think it's stupid or not to play for a 3 year rebuild.

In addition to MLB and BA, Fangraphs has Ford 53. So average the three of them out, and that's the appropriate range for a Jazz centerpiece. I don't think there is a big difference between the 50s and 80s/90s (like Celestin). Who knows what the Mariners and Marlins think though, but any of these Mariners guys should be on the table IMO. Jazz isn't a shlub. Montes and Celestin also would be great valuewise, ignoring this is really kicking the can down the road and probably also costs Sanchez/eating Polanco/etc. Fangraphs is down on Arroyo, but the write ups aren't bad. He could be a good 2nd/3rd player in a deal depending on who else involved. I think we can just wait here and the Mariners have the goods to get this done for sure, and we'll see what Peter decides is the best course. It's going to be hard for him to fuck this up with Seattle though from my eyes so it'll be really telling if its a dingus deal. There is absolutely no reason to trade Jazz here so he has all the leverage. Side note here, the Marlins reporters said the org said they are unlikely to move Sanchez or DLC of course. Maybe that's a smoke screen to save them in reserve for something like this where at the last second, OK fine we'll give you Sanchez too but only for this, etc. Sanchez statcast is awesome and expected slash over .825+. Pretty much every team is taking that gamble he will explode. DLC also has a solid statcast and does hit some bombs to be a useful platoon DH batting 7th on a good team. Someone is going to buy them for sure IMO in an offensive starved environment, and attaching 1 of them to Jazz to an offensive starved team like the Mariners and everyone has a lot of cheap club control years.... This is a best case scenario for everyone. I really do think two of Ford, Young, C. Emerson, Montes, Celesten, Farmelo, and Peete should be the goal, and whatever secondary pieces/eating Polanco needed to get that done will be worth it. I'd go for it on this one if I were Bendix as it's just a great matchup of needs and prospects, get a FV45 or FV40+ guy for Scott, and then field competitive offers for Luzardo, Rogers, Puk, and Nardi in case someone will overpay to get a luxury lefty this deadline. Everything still would suck, but this would be something to cling onto.

[lou]

Ford and Pete is a near ideal return, but I don’t think they’ll get that. I think one of those two is the headliner. Pete is an interesting name. There were rumors he was in the mix for the Thomas White pick as another guy to use their savings on. He obviously went in the 1st round, though. It’s a different regime in Miami, but you also have a director of scouting from that organization, so it’s probably safe to say they’d like him. I was listening to a podcast where they said Seattle really likes him, though.

Ford might be my top realistic headliner among the teams discussed, but I wonder if they look younger.

Again, I hope I’m wrong, and they capitalize on a sellers’ market and get a big return that nets them both of these guys or something similar.

No probs with all of this and agree. They have the goods, it will work out if both organizations are realistic.

Hopefully for us, there is something for 2026 and not just beyond.

[fish16]

i dont see why you would trade sanchez at the deadline. the peripherals are there but value probably isnt great given the lack of pure numbers and the inconsistency. i think thats a guy you wait until the offseason or maybe next deadline to deal. He also has limited value because he is strictly a platoon player with piss poor plate discipline and a complete inability to play against lefties. He probably has more value to us than he would in a trade.

[lou]

i dont see why you would trade sanchez at the deadline. the peripherals are there but value probably isnt great given the lack of pure numbers and the inconsistency. i think thats a guy you wait until the offseason or maybe next deadline to deal. He also has limited value because he is strictly a platoon player with a complete inability to play against lefties. He probably has more value to us than he would in a trade.

He has no value to the Marlins as they aren't trying next year though? You'd have to expect a real breakout into a .900 OPS RHP bat to really get more out of him. I think teams are smart and will buy the analytics as-is. I don't think any sell low would occur with someone of that statistical backing. Maybe I am wrong but every fan base would think their FO is smart getting a guy 125 OPS points lower than his expected slash. Not asking for the world here in a top 100 guy, but a good player should be had or a perfect throw in to the Mariners to ensure you get the guys you want.

I also have to stress no one in baseball can hit, most trade options will be imperfect, and contenders are going to have to roll the dice on hitters like Jazz and Sanchez. Sanchez is worth *a lot* more than names like Cody Bellinger right now because of the anchor contract. It's really an opportunity to unload some guys like this at a low offense availability deadline, as they are cheap right now and the Marlins won't spend $5m to keep them in 2026 anyways so just cut ship. I'm ignoring none of this should be happening because of Bruce, but since it is, these are just the sad right moves IMO to cut the money, get kids, and rally around a healthy pitching staff (even sans Luzardo).

[fish16]

He has no value to the Marlins as they aren't trying next year though? You'd have to expect a real breakout into a .900 OPS RHP bat to really get more out of him. I think teams are smart and will buy the analytics as-is. I don't think any sell low would occur with someone of that statistical backing. Maybe I am wrong but every fan base would think their FO is smart getting a guy 125 OPS points lower than his expected slash. Not asking for the world here in a top 100 guy, but a good player should be had or a perfect throw in to the Mariners to ensure you get the guys you want.

I also have to stress no one in baseball can hit, most trade options will be imperfect, and contenders are going to have to roll the dice on hitters like Jazz and Sanchez. Sanchez is worth *a lot* more than names like Cody Bellinger right now because of the anchor contract. It's really an opportunity to unload some guys like this at a low offense availability deadline, as they are cheap right now and the Marlins won't spend $5m to keep them in 2026 anyways so just cut ship. I'm ignoring none of this should be happening because of Bruce, but since it is, these are just the sad right moves IMO to cut the money, get kids, and rally around a healthy pitching staff (even sans Luzardo).

If you include him in a jazz deal to get a better return i think id be fine with it. i was talking about more of a solo trade. I dont think he has a ton of value there and id take the risk that he improves the value between now and next deadline.

[sports24/7]

is ford realistic though? I think that is way too high end of a prospect as a headliner for jazz, especially at a premium position like C, closer to the big leagues. MLB has him at 23, though BA has him at 72.

If it's the mariners, i think you're looking at something closer to Montes and celestin, who are at 52 and 91 with MLB and are further away from the big leagues. BA has celestin at 95 and montes at 29.

Who the fuck knows with those spreads

I like Celestin and Arroyo personally, and they fit the bill for what the other trades have indicated is their preference at the moment, whether we all think it's stupid or not to play for a 3 year rebuild.

He very well may not be, but the Marlins should have leverage here. Best case scenario, Chicago keeps Robert and Jazz is by far the best bat available both short term and long term. I think Miami could also attach a RP to the deal to get more, and hopefully they'll even send money (although it's not like Jazz costs much). I would even think about packaging Scott and Jazz together if you can land a premium prospect or two back.

I don't think I'd trade Sanchez now, mostly because I think there's still a chance for his stock to go up. He's starting to show real power, even if it's only against righties. I'm not sure that you'd get a whole lot from him right now, so the opportunity cost in waiting isn't that great, whereas I think the potential for more value makes that the right approach. I'd trade DLC if teams value him, though.

The wildcard option here is Miami trading a starter. I know Lou has mentioned he thinks Luzardo could still be in play, and if the value is right, and Chicago doesn't trade Crochet, you could still get a bidding war going on him. I think Cabrera's value is at an all-time low, so he's probably not an option, but Rogers is starting to pitch better, and we kept hearing teams still liked him, although that was a while ago.

[Todd]

What makes Ford less likely IMO is that they only have Raleigh under control for 2 more seasons and even if they do re-sign him it's doubtful to be long term as he will be 30 in his FA year.

[lou]

If you include him in a jazz deal to get a better return i think id be fine with it. i was talking about more of a solo trade. I dont think he has a ton of value there and id take the risk that he improves the value between now and next deadline.

We agree - he's a kicker in this hypothetical fantasy I am spinning of getting two premium Mariners guys. In a 1-1, I think you'd need something real good as Sanchez is absolutely flashing right now and hard to say a "Martorella" is a good return for this kind of upside happening. Sanchez's value shines in a package deal 100% for me.

[lou]

He very well may not be, but the Marlins should have leverage here. Best case scenario, Chicago keeps Robert and Jazz is by far the best bat available both short term and long term. I think Miami could also attach a RP to the deal to get more, and hopefully they'll even send money (although it's not like Jazz costs much). I would even think about packaging Scott and Jazz together if you can land a premium prospect or two back.

I don't think I'd trade Sanchez now, mostly because I think there's still a chance for his stock to go up. He's starting to show real power, even if it's only against righties. I'm not sure that you'd get a whole lot from him right now, so the opportunity cost in waiting isn't that great, whereas I think the potential for more value makes that the right approach. I'd trade DLC if teams value him, though.

The wildcard option here is Miami trading a starter. I know Lou has mentioned he thinks Luzardo could still be in play, and if the value is right, and Chicago doesn't trade Crochet, you could still get a bidding war going on him. I think Cabrera's value is at an all-time low, so he's probably not an option, but Rogers is starting to pitch better, and we kept hearing teams still liked him, although that was a while ago.

Agree with all of this, but I'll stick with that one point where I think Sanchez could make a lot of sense to the right team. Seattle is too perfect for Jazz and Sanchez.

I frankly think that wildcard option is just an option though and not a wildcard. Everyone always be needing lefties, and while I like these guys for who they are, Luzardo, Rogers, Puk, and Nardi are expendable in a long term view the core rotation is Sandy, Eury, Max, Garrett, and Weathers (right? With Cabrera getting his shit together as a 6th). First two clear money and they likely won't resign, and the last two are "reliever volatility" trades and trading them on value highs and trusting your scouting to find more when you're ready to be good again 26/27. A shitty team doesn't need this caliber of relievers in a rebuild even for 1 year.

Bendix has options. I frankly wouldn't blame him at all for a scorch earth approach of Jazz, Scott, Sanchez, DLC, Luzardo, Rogers, Puk, Nardi, Bender, Bell, and Chargois this deadline. I don't think those guys would be difficult to move (except Bell but eat 100% of salary), and it could be a huge infusion of 18-20 prospects and at least half of that is probably notable names. It is a swift, radical move and the farm depth would likely be "fixed" immediately. None of this makes sense except in a world ownership sucks, but that is the game board.

[rmc523]

Agree with all of this, but I'll stick with that one point where I think Sanchez could make a lot of sense to the right team. Seattle is too perfect for Jazz and Sanchez.

I frankly think that wildcard option is just an option though and not a wildcard. Everyone always be needing lefties, and while I like these guys for who they are, Luzardo, Rogers, Puk, and Nardi are expendable in a long term view the core rotation is Sandy, Eury, Max, Garrett, and Weathers (right? With Cabrera getting his shit together as a 6th). First two clear money and they likely won't resign, and the last two are "reliever volatility" trades and trading them on value highs and trusting your scouting to find more when you're ready to be good again 26/27. A shitty team doesn't need this caliber of relievers in a rebuild even for 1 year.

Bendix has options. I frankly wouldn't blame him at all for a scorch earth approach of Jazz, Scott, Sanchez, DLC, Luzardo, Rogers, Puk, Nardi, Bender, Bell, and Chargois this deadline. I don't think those guys would be difficult to move (except Bell but eat 100% of salary), and it could be a huge infusion of 18-20 prospects and at least half of that is probably notable names. It is a swift, radical move and the farm depth would likely be "fixed" immediately. None of this makes sense except in a world ownership sucks, but that is the game board.

Since i don’t care anymore, why bother keeping anyone at this point? You’re willing to trade “greater” players, but “lesser” guys like DLC or Sanchez are not under consideration (at least publicly)? Why? If you’re going to blow it up and put us through more years of misery, why not go all the way?

[lou]

Since i don’t care anymore, why bother keeping anyone at this point? You’re willing to trade “greater” players, but “lesser” guys like DLC or Sanchez are not under consideration (at least publicly)? Why? If you’re going to blow it up and put us through more years of misery, why not go all the way?

I do think they are available in light of the first one.

And yes, why not go all the way with unapologetic baseball decisions and flat out have the presser that says - this needs to be done because the personnel we have with our payroll expectations don't match up. Be honest, and don't have to even address the whole Bruce problem in this statement. It practically makes sense if the game board is a max $90-100m salary, it doesn't work with these bats for 2025, no Eury for half the year, and no Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg coming up the pipes to fix the offense.

The kicker here is for me - throw something out there that is a smart longterm decision on top of a total dump. As I mused, trade 8-10 guys.... but let's sign Puk for 4/$16m (with SP incentives on top of that if they do try to work him out there again, which I genuinely think they will do again in at minimum spring training) and Rogers for 4/$22m (this is a good 4th/5th SP or lefty reliever price tag and he is a floor that IMO), etc. Those would be incredibly interesting moves (and line up with comps) to me to build out the pitching through 2028 if in the same breath Jazz, Scott, Sanchez, DLC, Chargois, Brazoban, Bender, and Bell are all moved this deadline, and Luzardo right after the season once he comes back and has a normal September, etc. Even better if they sign Willy Adames to a huge deal a year early, just to get the player they need at SS because there is nothing in free agency coming in 25/26 offseason (and frontload that deal to offset later salaries). Throw a bone out there to show there is a genuine plan besides "hoping to be Baltimore via draft" and lining Bruce's pockets. 2025 will be a mess offensively but that's going to happen anyways so I am all about embracing the mess if it means slashing payroll for future use (yes I know) and getting younger guys faster to match with a 2026 pitching depth chart that might be outstanding. We can hope.

[rmc523]

They’re not going to sign anyone, let alone anyone to some “huge” deal. We’ll get the usual bottom of the barrel Rays retreads and that’s it.

[lou]

They’re not going to sign anyone, let alone anyone to some “huge” deal. We’ll get the usual bottom of the barrel Rays retreads and that’s it.

I don't think anyone disagrees with that. I just have a hard time thinking this is a contending baseball team July 1, 2026 and is Plan A:

____, Fortes/Mack/Banfield
Burger, Martorella/Berry
Edwards
______, Otto
______, ______
______
______, Mesa Jr./Marsee
______

Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Max/Cabrera, Weathers
Noble, White
Cabrera/Max, Cronin, Hoeing/Other, Maldonado/Faucher/Other
Nardi, Simpson/Fulton/Monteverde/Other

That's probably $60-65m bucks and is assuming best case scenarios for Noble and White who they would really need to be great immediately to deflect against incredibly low offensive potential (see Mariners 2024 for the path). I mean that staff could be incredible which is where your mind has to go as a front office and fan, but you're going to need to really really hit on some core contributors for Luzardo, Jazz, Scott, Sanchez, Puk, Rogers, DLC, and parts, as well as spend *something,* to cobble those position players together. They probably have a platoon 1B/DH situation and a solid cheap bench figured out for a bit, and that's about it internally.

It begs the question then when this doesn't work as it obviously won't absent some real spending, it's just well let's trade Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Burger, and all the RP and circle 2028 when Head, Marlando, Johnson, presumably # 1 pick in 2025 draft, etc. are ready and Eury is still under club control. Constant rinse/repeat. It's just amazing to me the league lets some of these owners do this. But oh well. We got the Stanley Cup.

[sports24/7]

Since i don’t care anymore, why bother keeping anyone at this point? You’re willing to trade “greater” players, but “lesser” guys like DLC or Sanchez are not under consideration (at least publicly)? Why? If you’re going to blow it up and put us through more years of misery, why not go all the way?

I think the biggest reason is value. I think you are starting to see signs with Sanchez that there could be more. So if he’s not worth very much now, why rush to trade him? With DLC, I think it might have more to do with the fact that you’ll have to fill out your roster the next two years and you have a lot of control there. So again, if he’s not going to really get you anything, you might as well hang on to him. But I’m with you that if he has any value, I’d trade him now, because I’m not sure his value will get any better.

[fish16]

if you can only pencil in 2 spots for the future lineup, with one of them being a guy with 192 career at bats, and the other being a guy that currently has a .635 OPS at the all star break, your team is in complete shambles and has no shot of competing in the next 3 years. Especially with a farm system with nothing impressive in terms of future lineup pieces.

this is why i said the arraez trade was a disgrace and very clearly demonstrated 0 desire to compete and an inevitable 3+ year rebuild and it was met with criticism by those who couldnt see the very obvious plan and will excuse anything here like namaste. They had a path forward by keeping arraez and jazz and trading luzardo and fringe pieces and spending a little money in free agency. They have ruined that path forward. As i said the day arraez was traded, they just ruined any hope whatsoever that this team can compete for a playoff spot any time soon. it's not being hyperbolic to say that, it's the reality of anyone who can see past their homer glasses.

That great SP "depth" will be decimated by injuries and trades to rebuild the lineup, and the cycle will repeat itself. Im sure that will do great things for an already indifferent fanbase, which will lead to even worse crowds, which will lead to even worse spending, which will lead to even worse crowds, which will lead to even worse spending, and so on and so forth. It starts with ownership. There is no path forward until he sells the team. I havent watched a game since april and im a diehard fan. and you expect others to invest in this shit? they have 0 awareness. no one is sticking around for this circle 2028 bullshit. its fucking 2024