2024 Game Thread

[lou]

i think if they try to maximize 1 piece in return, they could get a back end of the top 100 prospect for jazz. what will likely happen in my opinion though, is they try and get multiple non top 100 guys who are super low in the minors with "high ceiling". I see them going after a recently signed top IFA prospect that one of these bigger market teams have that can be considered a riser in the next couple of years. Nothing they have done indicates they are going for anyone remotely close to the big leagues.

I do think he will take off and start putting up better numbers on a better team, but i dont think is jazz is a special talent by any means. He is just too limited with his OF defense and his ability to hit lefties. He's gotten better against lefties this year, but still not good enough. And it's not just the results against lefties, his at bats against lefties, especially in the most crucial moments, have been flat out awful for several years now.

Perspective is important - he's arguably the top bat available and those aren't my words (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/...line-2024.html). They will do extremely well in a trade as while others who may move like L. Robert are better, there are different tiers of players needed for those guys of course so Jazz becomes the most economical.

If we're using the Mariners as an example......

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seattle-...rospects-2024/
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners

Ford, Young, C. Emerson, Celesten, and <---- All top 100, Celesten is a 2027/2028 player, others 2026
Peete <---- Strong FV45+ type like Head who is all tools and could explode, easily a 2028 arrival player

With a footnote Montes and Farmelo might be able to be swapped out for someone.

I would prefer Ford here big time, but if the name of the game is maximizing value, it might be taking the two youngest guys similarly ranked (Celeten and Peele) to let the Mariners feel their right now window is now as Ford/Young/Emerson join the team quickly with that dope SP and Jazz could be extended as a good fit for everywhere. Marlins still get theirs but its just "down the road" which sucks for us, but in a vacuum it would be a good trade. Big picture, I would shoot for Ford (Raleigh controlled for years) and Peete and give them whatever secondary pieces they want (within reason) to make that happens. If we think Jazz has warts, you do something notable for them - add Sanchez/DLC/Bender, take back Polanco's contract, take back some of Haniger's contract, etc. There are a lot of options here and other FV40s can be added to make it reasonable for all.


Another one I see is the Royals - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kansas-c...rospects-2024/

I don't see a fit. Marlins would need their top 3 guys (which includes 2 catchers) and someone else in their top 5-15 players, and this becomes a "bulk" deal where players 3 and 4 may be a lot better than a Jazz deal, but you're missing that oomph at top. I would love to be swimming in catchers, but this could turn into a Skipworth and Fortes return fast for me in a few years where I'd shoot for "safer" position prospects. They had a good run a decade ago drafting Barnes, Nola, Fortes, and Realmuto of course, and I feel that's the move of keep drafting athletic catchers in rounds 2-4 (and signing IFA ones that are interesting) and bank on getting one to work out every 5 years.

[fish16]

speaking of lower minors guys that scouts were high on and people were upset to lose-

Marco Vargas has been injured on and off all year and has a .645 OPS this year in low A ball.

Jose Salas for the 2nd straight year stinks and has a .588 OPS in high A ball after putting up a .537 OPS last year at the same level.

Ronald hernandez has a .760 OPS with just 15 xbh's as a 20 year old about to turn 21 in October in low A ball

[fish16]

Perspective is important - he's arguably the top bat available and those aren't my words (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/...line-2024.html). They will do extremely well in a trade as while others who may move like L. Robert are better, there are different tiers of players needed for those guys of course so Jazz becomes the most economical.

If we're using the Mariners as an example......

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seattle-...rospects-2024/
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners

Ford, Young, C. Emerson, Celesten, and <---- All top 100, Celesten is a 2027/2028 player, others 2026
Peete <---- Strong FV45+ type like Head who is all tools and could explode, easily a 2028 arrival player

With a footnote Montes and Farmelo might be able to be swapped out for someone.

I would prefer Ford here big time, but if the name of the game is maximizing value, it might be taking the two youngest guys similarly ranked (Celeten and Peele) to let the Mariners feel their right now window is now as Ford/Young/Emerson join the team quickly with that dope SP and Jazz could be extended as a good fit for everywhere. Marlins still get theirs but its just "down the road" which sucks for us, but in a vacuum it would be a good trade. Big picture, I would shoot for Ford (Raleigh controlled for years) and Peete and give them whatever secondary pieces they want (within reason) to make that happens. If we think Jazz has warts, you do something notable for them - add Sanchez/DLC/Bender, take back Polanco's contract, take back some of Haniger's contract, etc. There are a lot of options here and other FV40s can be added to make it reasonable for all.


Another one I see is the Royals - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kansas-c...rospects-2024/

I don't see a fit. Marlins would need their top 3 guys (which includes 2 catchers) and someone else in their top 5-15 players, and this becomes a "bulk" deal where players 3 and 4 may be a lot better than a Jazz deal, but you're missing that oomph at top. I would love to be swimming in catchers, but this could turn into a Skipworth and Fortes return fast for me in a few years where I'd shoot for "safer" position prospects. They had a good run a decade ago drafting Barnes, Nola, Fortes, and Realmuto of course, and I feel that's the move of keep drafting athletic catchers in rounds 2-4 (and signing IFA ones that are interesting) and bank on getting one to work out every 5 years.

we shall see in the next few weeks. not worth arguing over. I think every fan drastically overvalues the kinds of return their players will get in deals. Teams are very very reluctant to trade top prospects nowadays. Jazz is a good but not great player though, so we will see what happens. I am highly skeptical a top 30 prospect in harry ford would be on the table for a guy like jazz. If he is, i highly doubt you get much else in a deal.

Mariners make a ton of sense, but to me harry ford only makes sense if the team doesnt think the joe mack season has staying power. Otherwise, this team desperately needs a long term SS somewhere in the system.

Might be too much, but i like Ford, Emerson, and Michael Arroyo.

Royals dont seem like a great fit to me.

Tanner scott seems to me to be the type of guy they would target a recent IFA high profile signing for.

[lou]

Random, but I just realized the Marlins currently sit at the top of the draft lottery for next year. CWS have the worst record, but due to the "small-market teams can't pick in the lottery 3 years in a row" rule, they can't pick higher than 10. Unfortunately, the "top" 3 teams all have the same odds, so it may not matter much, but that does make it fairly likely that they finish as one of the teams with the best odds. We all know how things work for the Marlins, though, so I'm sure they'll move down multiple spots in the lottery.

EDIT: Looking at it again, it looks like they spread the top 3 odds out among the remaining two teams, so the bottom 2 teams will actually have the best odds at 23.49% rather than 3 teams at 16.5% like it was this year.

Marlins are projected to pick # 1 in this shitty bleacher report article and take Ethan Holliday (SS/3B) - https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ball-prospects

The top college bats are all OF it looks like - https://www.prospectslive.com/prospe...egiate-players

So it's probably going to be Holliday or a college OF bat next year based on early value. Not that this matters too much in penciling in teams, but it looks like a bat-heavy draft which is what they will need and hopefully by then after presumed Jazz, Scott, Sanchez, DLC, Rogers, and Luzardo trades, the bat situation matches the pitching situation on paper and we can debate if Sandy is worth keeping or if they need to move him for bats too.

[Nick]

we shall see in the next few weeks. not worth arguing over. I think every fan drastically overvalues the kinds of return their players will get in deals. Teams are very very reluctant to trade top prospects nowadays. Jazz is a good but not great player though, so we will see what happens. I am highly skeptical a top 30 prospect in harry ford would be on the table for a guy like jazz. If he is, i highly doubt you get much else in a deal.

Mariners make a ton of sense, but to me harry ford only makes sense if the team doesnt think the joe mack season has staying power. Otherwise, this team desperately needs a long term SS somewhere in the system.

Might be too much, but i like Ford, Emerson, and Michael Arroyo.

Royals dont seem like a great fit to me.

Tanner scott seems to me to be the type of guy they would target a recent IFA high profile signing for.

(:'o)

[Todd]

If you look a bit deeper at Martorella and Marsee, they are just getting really unlucky.

I actually like the returns for both Berti and Arraez and think they gained two decent 4th OF(Sasaki and lefty Marsee) and a decent 1B in Martorella.

Not world beaters but potentially, a compenent 1B and two guys who could be solid backups for regular OF.

[fish16]

If you look a bit deeper at Martorella and Marsee, they are just getting really unlucky.

I actually like the returns for both Berti and Arraez and think they gained two decent 4th OF(Sasaki and lefty Marsee) and a decent 1B in Martorella.

Not world beaters but potentially, a compenent 1B and two guys who could be solid backups for regular OF.

martorella has been "unlucky" with his .181 BABIP, but the underlying metrics that made him appealing havent really been there either. Throughout his career he has had really good walk rates and for us its been 5.5% since the trade. He has a 39/12 k/bb since the trade, and before he had a 17/16 K/BB rate at the same level for the padres. It doesnt seem like he has all that noteworthy power either, with a career slugging percentage in the minors of just .402. He is the least impressive of the 3 to me.

Marsee is the most appealing one out of all of them to me. He seems to have really solid plate discipline and great speed and stolen base efficiency, and he has displayed decent but not great power. For his career he is at 197 k's and 178 bb's, and he's been 93/106 in stolen base attempts, If he is a quality CF he might be something. Not sure how his scouting is defensively in CF.

The centerpiece being injured when they got him, and then immediately needing major hip surgery when his best tool is speed is a complete disaster though.

My biggest issue with the deal on top of none of them being clear cut good prospects with the ability to help soon, is that it signaled what is about to be crystal clear between now and the deadline- a complete teardown with a multi year rebuild, all while we have a really good rotation for next year in what was the year everyone circled for years now.

[fish16]

the only positive to me so far this year is that kim nailed the first 2 picks last year. Meyer and white look great, and kemp alderman is finally playing well after being injured most of the year. He won FSL player of the week last week i believe.

[sports24/7]

Perspective is important - he's arguably the top bat available and those aren't my words (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/...line-2024.html). They will do extremely well in a trade as while others who may move like L. Robert are better, there are different tiers of players needed for those guys of course so Jazz becomes the most economical.

If we're using the Mariners as an example......

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seattle-...rospects-2024/
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners

Ford, Young, C. Emerson, Celesten, and <---- All top 100, Celesten is a 2027/2028 player, others 2026
Peete <---- Strong FV45+ type like Head who is all tools and could explode, easily a 2028 arrival player

With a footnote Montes and Farmelo might be able to be swapped out for someone.

I would prefer Ford here big time, but if the name of the game is maximizing value, it might be taking the two youngest guys similarly ranked (Celeten and Peele) to let the Mariners feel their right now window is now as Ford/Young/Emerson join the team quickly with that dope SP and Jazz could be extended as a good fit for everywhere. Marlins still get theirs but its just "down the road" which sucks for us, but in a vacuum it would be a good trade. Big picture, I would shoot for Ford (Raleigh controlled for years) and Peete and give them whatever secondary pieces they want (within reason) to make that happens. If we think Jazz has warts, you do something notable for them - add Sanchez/DLC/Bender, take back Polanco's contract, take back some of Haniger's contract, etc. There are a lot of options here and other FV40s can be added to make it reasonable for all.


Another one I see is the Royals - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kansas-c...rospects-2024/

I don't see a fit. Marlins would need their top 3 guys (which includes 2 catchers) and someone else in their top 5-15 players, and this becomes a "bulk" deal where players 3 and 4 may be a lot better than a Jazz deal, but you're missing that oomph at top. I would love to be swimming in catchers, but this could turn into a Skipworth and Fortes return fast for me in a few years where I'd shoot for "safer" position prospects. They had a good run a decade ago drafting Barnes, Nola, Fortes, and Realmuto of course, and I feel that's the move of keep drafting athletic catchers in rounds 2-4 (and signing IFA ones that are interesting) and bank on getting one to work out every 5 years.

Ford and Pete is a near ideal return, but I don’t think they’ll get that. I think one of those two is the headliner. Pete is an interesting name. There were rumors he was in the mix for the Thomas White pick as another guy to use their savings on. He obviously went in the 1st round, though. It’s a different regime in Miami, but you also have a director of scouting from that organization, so it’s probably safe to say they’d like him. I was listening to a podcast where they said Seattle really likes him, though.

Ford might be my top realistic headliner among the teams discussed, but I wonder if they look younger.

Again, I hope I’m wrong, and they capitalize on a sellers’ market and get a big return that nets them both of these guys or something similar.

[Todd]

Martorella's career SLG pre-Pensacola is .446. He isn't going to go Aaron Judge but he is probably a 20-25 HR guy.

Pensacola just doesn't agree with him for some reason.

[fish16]

Martorella's career SLG pre-Pensacola is .446. He isn't going to go Aaron Judge but he is probably a 20-25 HR guy.

Pensacola just doesn't agree with him for some reason.

he is the typical rays 1b type. they have a clear type at a number of positions. for 1b they like lefty, 15-20 homers, high obp. Carlos pena was the high end with power, but they've also had casey kotchman, ji man choi, and diaz the last few years.

[lou]

we shall see in the next few weeks. not worth arguing over. I think every fan drastically overvalues the kinds of return their players will get in deals. Teams are very very reluctant to trade top prospects nowadays. Jazz is a good but not great player though, so we will see what happens. I am highly skeptical a top 30 prospect in harry ford would be on the table for a guy like jazz. If he is, i highly doubt you get much else in a deal.

Mariners make a ton of sense, but to me harry ford only makes sense if the team doesnt think the joe mack season has staying power. Otherwise, this team desperately needs a long term SS somewhere in the system.

Might be too much, but i like Ford, Emerson, and Michael Arroyo.

Royals dont seem like a great fit to me.

Tanner scott seems to me to be the type of guy they would target a recent IFA high profile signing for.

To me, a FV50 is a FV50 and there isn't a tremendous gap between prospect 30 and 80, but I agree with you that is a tough guy to trade for.

I think Celesten/Montes + Peete is ultimately a more compromise package with guys much further away, and something else of value is extended to Seattle with Sanchez/DLC/Bender and/or eating Polanco's contract, etc. We shall see.

Big picture, Mariners are a great fit and I think we will approve of the trade in a vacuum as one must ignore the other reason for the trade is Bruce Sherman Sucks Balls. He runs the team worse than that fucking soccer game at Hard Rock.

[lou]

If you look a bit deeper at Martorella and Marsee, they are just getting really unlucky.

I actually like the returns for both Berti and Arraez and think they gained two decent 4th OF(Sasaki and lefty Marsee) and a decent 1B in Martorella.

Not world beaters but potentially, a compenent 1B and two guys who could be solid backups for regular OF.

I'm not with you on Sasaki and Marsee, they seem like Brian Miller and Peyton Burdicks to me and hope I am wrong (but fine for purposes of trade), but I do think Martorella will eventually hit and be a fine floor platoon guy at minimum. I think he will hit right handed pitching and if all they get out of this is a good platoon 1B/DH, I think that is "fine" for these 3 players. The trades still live and die on Head and Cruz as we all likely agree.

[fish16]

Ford and Pete is a near ideal return, but I don’t think they’ll get that. I think one of those two is the headliner. Pete is an interesting name. There were rumors he was in the mix for the Thomas White pick as another guy to use their savings on. He obviously went in the 1st round, though. It’s a different regime in Miami, but you also have a director of scouting from that organization, so it’s probably safe to say they’d like him. I was listening to a podcast where they said Seattle really likes him, though.

Ford might be my top realistic headliner among the teams discussed, but I wonder if they look younger.

Again, I hope I’m wrong, and they capitalize on a sellers’ market and get a big return that nets them both of these guys or something similar.

is ford realistic though? I think that is way too high end of a prospect as a headliner for jazz, especially at a premium position like C, closer to the big leagues. MLB has him at 23, though BA has him at 72.

If it's the mariners, i think you're looking at something closer to Montes and celestin, who are at 52 and 91 with MLB and are further away from the big leagues. BA has celestin at 95 and montes at 29.

Who the fuck knows with those spreads

I like Celestin and Arroyo personally, and they fit the bill for what the other trades have indicated is their preference at the moment, whether we all think it's stupid or not to play for a 3 year rebuild.

[lou]

he is the typical rays 1b type. they have a clear type at a number of positions. for 1b they like lefty, 15-20 homers, high obp. Carlos pena was the high end with power, but they've also had casey kotchman, ji man choi, and diaz the last few years.

This is a good point and I think Choi is a realistic desire of what they want Martorella to be. Career .800+ OPS vs RHP.

Burger has neutral career splits because lefties are killing him this year, but before this year was a lefty killer for sure. Maybe they are thinking if there are 324 games at 1B and DH, you can see a world Burger gets 120+ of them against all lefties and some righties, Marotrella 100 and shielded vs LHP, and a third player (Berry ideally) is added who can hit lefties well enough and they have a nice little R/L platoon of 3 players of this group. Burger sucking greatly reduces his expected arbitration totals versus hitting 35-40 HR entering a super 2 tender, so maybe he sticks around a bit as he is probably pretty cheap for 3 years now as arbitration scales and this knocks down every next year. He's going to be cheaper than DLC now maybe, so maybe they end up keeping 1 of them for some kind of 1B/DH platoon.

I go think Martorella gets his shot absent a disaster at minimum.