2024 Game Thread

[lou]

I don’t know. If I were looking at SP, Luzardo’s start to the season, and another injury would give me pause. He can rebuild his value, but will he? Scott CAN get his value back but 10 good innings is a big “if” at this point.

I’m just bitter because Bendix did essentially the one thing he couldn’t do in the offseason, which was nothing. They should have probably added to try and build off of a playoff run, but with the Sandy circumstances and a shitty owner, the other option was to sell. Doing neither gets you where we’re at now, and the moves are no less popular now than they would have been in the offseason.

Luzardo is going to be fine. Also, its his years of control which bring the exceptional value. 20 teams are calling for him right now after seeing the purge begin. Scott, I don't know. I generally agree. He needs to show something but they'll get something. "Relievers are volatile"

And yea I agree with the FO too. I said this all offseason - unapologetic baseball moves. If you're gonna suck, commit to sucking. That's an honest approach to team building and we all would have accepted it understanding the smoke and mirrors 33-14 record. Their only defense is Cabrera and Garrett got hurt in the spring, and then Eury. Things would probably be different if that didn't happen, but I think we all agree, they were still not winning 84 games with every pitcher at full go so they still should have moved Arraez, Luzardo, and Scott then and aimed for 2025.

[lou]

Ehh May’s just begun. Maybe it was the best deal on the table now, but you got 3 months til the deadline. Just doesn’t seem like the type of return I would feel obligated to pull the trigger right now.

FA had Head as a pick to click into top 100 FWIW - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to...-2025-top-100/

Cold weather prospect who are typically late bloomers.

I agree, I'd have shot for 1 better guy, a solid 2nd, and a flyer 3rd, but they likely got better 2nd-3rd-4th players here so we'll see. Luzardo they need to shoot for the moon.

[lou]

And since Fish 16 requested, this is $61m give/take.

C _____, _____
1B Burger, Martorella (I think he debuts first and this year)
2B ____, Edwards
SS _____, Brujan (he kind of looks real good all of a sudden?)
3B _____
LF _____, DLC
CF Jazz
RF Sanchez

SP Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Max (Eury midseason)
RHP _____, Faucher, Go, Bender, Hoeing
LHP Nardi, Puk, Weathers

Three blank lines - Luzardo/Scott, scale the payroll to $64m

So four free agents are needed here at that point, and how much over $64m will they spend? They just saved $7.5m in 2023 trading Arraez now to note. And maybe Fortes, Pereda, Banfield, Bride, Rivera, Otto, Gordon, Dane, or Mesa Jr. (especially him!) take some of those spots too so maybe its less than 4.

Need to hit on the bats. That staff is there on paper if it is healthy even without Eury to open.

[rmc523]

Bruce won’t spend a dime

[sports24/7]

This is obviously just the beginning. I wonder how far the tear down will go, though. You'd have to imagine Jazz won't be happy, and he's not afraid to speak his mind, so while trading him is about the worst PR move they could make, they may not have a choice. The news of Burger getting traded for the Yankees 13th best prospect is probably the one that would hurt the most for me, though.

[rmc523]

This is obviously just the beginning. I wonder how far the tear down will go, though. You'd have to imagine Jazz won't be happy, and he's not afraid to speak his mind, so while trading him is about the worst PR move they could make, they may not have a choice. The news of Burger getting traded for the Yankees 13th best prospect is probably the one that would hurt the most for me, though.

Trade jazz too. Why stop at him. I’m over his antics without backing it up on the field.

dump everyone and circle 2087! That’ll be the year!!!

[lou]

Actually I didn't realize Go has a contract, and reading more Marsee is more MLB ready. Given Mesa Jr. is rising and they probably like Dane to an extent, one of those OF spots is probably purely club controlled and revolving. Especially since Edwards and Brujan can pop out there. So I'll make Sanchez/DLC a pick 1 as they probably keep 1.

So this would be the pencil projection for 2025 as of today. Still $61m range.

C _____, _____
1B Burger, Martorella
2B ____, Edwards
SS _____, Brujan
3B _____
LF _____, DLC/Sanchez
CF Jazz
RF Marsee/Mesa Jr./Dane

SP Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Max (Eury midseason)
RHP _____, Faucher, Go, Bender, Hoeing
LHP Nardi, Puk, Weathers

Three blank lines - Luzardo/Scott, scale the payroll to $64m. Might get someone else like Fortes on top of that.

And how much over $64m will they spend on floor 3, maybe 4 bats/closer. The big question here.

[Nick]

Marsee is hitting .176 in AA. May need some more time in the minors I’d say.

[lou]

This is obviously just the beginning. I wonder how far the tear down will go, though. You'd have to imagine Jazz won't be happy, and he's not afraid to speak his mind, so while trading him is about the worst PR move they could make, they may not have a choice. The news of Burger getting traded for the Yankees 13th best prospect is probably the one that would hurt the most for me, though.

What they should do is the opposite and right now extend:

Jazz 5/$65m (+club option)
Cabrera 5/$35m (+club option)
Rogers 4/$30m (+club option)

These would be based on arbitration buyout comps. Career earnings Jazz $5.2m, Cabrera $2.6m, Rogers $7m (1st rd. pick $$$). These are *big* lifestyle jumps for these guys when they are all faced with a 2025 arbitration tender likely ranging from $2.75-4.5m tops. A lot to think about with all of their injury history. Everyone is still a free agent at a good enough age to get a second deal. Ultimately, the two arms are average bullpen prices theses days and you're just taking a swing on Jazz to be good.

I'm not saying they are going to do this, I'm saying if this team wants to change some narratives, this is how you sell everyone there is some vision here and makes some moves easier to swallow.


As for Burger, you also say in jest, but the Yankees # 12 prospect is a FV40+ C prospect Fangraphs thinks could turn into a top 100 guy next year. Ramirez https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ag...ats?position=C. See, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to...-2025-top-100/. He's a perfect second piece in a hypothetical Burger trade but they'd need someone else. Like Peraza I imagine and that gets really interesting fast for me.

[lou]

Marsee is hitting .176 in AA. May need some more time in the minors I’d say.

.217 BABIP, 17.4% BB / 22% K. But that's still not a great AVG even with a BABIP correction. But then you scroll over to his splits page and his OPS is .200 points higher against RHP.

Scouts say he is closer. That's all I am saying. I think we'll see him in 2025 and hopefully he isn't a Burdick.

[lou]

The point is it is over the top doom and gloom. Twitter reactions from ignoramus Gen Z kids who have no reading comprehension and want information in 140 characters only are worthless. This trade is fine (and Padres fans generally think an overpay FWIW and are annoyed Head was moved in this but are OK because win now baby) and it took guts from them to do it May 3rd. Frankly, more please. The second Luzardo shows the health and FB velocity, shop aggressively and get more bats. Scott, Bell, Anderson, Chargois, and Bethancourt should quickly follow and they should eat all money to make it happen, and if you get good deals, Burger, Jazz, Rogers, Sanchez, DLC, and Puk can go now too but no rush to do anything with them.

It'll be fine. The entire plan should basically boil down to Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, and Weathers (and maybe Rogers if kept) is going to be a screaming rotation and they have the entire mid/back bullpen figured out (Go, Faucher, Bender, Nardi, etc.). It is actually a big deal to be able to say this at the prices they have these players in 2025. Especially if they smartly buy out Cabrera and Rogers now, Eury as soon as he shows the injury is behind him, and Max once they figure out if he has that third pitch to be a big time SP, or a backend guy/plus reliever, etc.


The larger issue of will Bruce ever do anything payroll wise will permeate until it doesn't anymore and I have no answer for that of course (although I disagree he is going to have a sub $70m payroll in 2025 and he will spend more than a dime even if still not enough ultimately), but in a vacuum, this was a right decision and I hope more right decisions are to follow as there have been many many many MANY wrong decisions made since November 1st. You gotta start somewhere and this is somewhere. Maybe they make a series of bad moves and wash this all away quickly which could happen, but until that happens, Bendorx gets a hat tip of starting to right his wrongs for me even if overall, he's still a fucking idiot for getting here in the first place by not doing jack shit the entire offseason off a playoff run.


To note, Brujan is all of a sudden hitting .298/.377/.447, .326 BABIP (he's fast enough, this is fine), and..... 11.3% BB / 7.5% K rate. Very SSS, Statcast thinks he's overachieving by .100 OPS points, but he was real bad the first few weeks so hopefully that normalizes over 50-75 more PA as he's hitting with a lot more confidence of late. Could be a big development here.

[fish16]

Actually I didn't realize Go has a contract, and reading more Marsee is more MLB ready. Given Mesa Jr. is rising and they probably like Dane to an extent, one of those OF spots is probably purely club controlled and revolving. Especially since Edwards and Brujan can pop out there. So I'll make Sanchez/DLC a pick 1 as they probably keep 1.

So this would be the pencil projection for 2025 as of today. Still $61m range.

C _____, _____
1B Burger, Martorella
2B ____, Edwards
SS _____, Brujan
3B _____
LF _____, DLC/Sanchez
CF Jazz
RF Marsee/Mesa Jr./Dane

SP Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Max (Eury midseason)
RHP _____, Faucher, Go, Bender, Hoeing
LHP Nardi, Puk, Weathers

Three blank lines - Luzardo/Scott, scale the payroll to $64m. Might get someone else like Fortes on top of that.

And how much over $64m will they spend on floor 3, maybe 4 bats/closer. The big question here.

Definitely not a 3+ year rebuild with a projected lineup with 6 complete blanks, a platoon cf who clearly can’t hit lefties, a right field consisting of a guy hitting .176 in double a and who by all accounts is not a major league starting caliber player, and a constantly injured 1b with no defensive value, plus 2 guys coming off Tommy John and a truly awful looking bullpen, with absolutely 0 in the entire system in terms of high level prospects

guys do not want to sign here nor does this owner want to spend money. Not sure how many times you have to be shown that for it to get through to you. It’s completely fucking laughable.

and you’ll see the rest of the year and into the future how done even the most diehard fans are of this team. Baseball is not played on a computer. There wasa 0 hope for this franchise to ever spend money, and even less so now with a fan base who is truly done with this pathetic organization

[lou]

Definitely not a 3+ year rebuild with a projected lineup with 6 complete blanks, a platoon cf who clearly can’t hit lefties, a right field consisting of a guy hitting .176 in double a and who by all accounts is not a major league starting caliber player, and a constantly injured 1b with no defensive value, plus 2 guys coming off Tommy John and a truly awful looking bullpen, with absolutely 0 in the entire system in terms of high level prospects

guys do not want to sign here nor does this owner want to spend money. Not sure how many times you have to be shown that for it to get through to you. It’s completely fucking laughable.

and you’ll see the rest of the year and into the future how done even the most diehard fans are of this team. Baseball is not played on a computer. There wasa 0 hope for this franchise to ever spend money, and even less so now with a fan base who is truly done with this pathetic organization

Welcome back!!!!!!!!!!

I have read your post, understand that you aren't in the mental state with this doom spiral to have the ability to understand what I am saying as some things here are just inaccurate but I'm not getting bogged down in this on a weekend, but would agree the only thing that matters here is the one thing I have bolded. They need to spend like 2023 to be potentially very good in 2025 (the P is there, and you love Burger but now are attacking him? Wut?) absent some huge developments, or it's circling 2026 that quickly.

Do I think this will happen? No idea, but I am above 0% confident and (well) under 50% so yes, I do not think that will happen with Bruce Sherman, but I do like to think he spent like 2023 once, so maybe he will do it again one year. If all the pitching is healthy end of the season and they have over half the bats figured out, I think there is a chance. What are you missing here that I lead the charge against Bruce and you're behind me on this criticism?

[fish16]

It’s not a doom spiral, it’s reality. There is 0 pathway to being very good in 2025. 0. They need 7 fucking bats even if they don’t trade jazz or burger. I’m not sure if you have ever run a business, but you don’t increase expenses with diminished revenue. Cheap people with limited resources especially so. And you are greatly underestimating how much this just decimated the fan base. Baseball isn’t played on a computer. You can’t continue to do this to a fan base and expect anyone to be left. They have decimated any reason to be a marlins fan. There won’t be an increase in payroll until there is a new owner. You’re about to see 2022 all over again with decent pitching and the worst lineup in baseball. And their trades are telling you they aren’t even trying to be good next year. They’ve gotten nothing but 19 year olds in Cruz and head. As I said, this is a 3+ year rebuild. Jazz is probably next, and Sandy is probably next after that when he returns.

[rmc523]

Actually I didn't realize Go has a contract, and reading more Marsee is more MLB ready. Given Mesa Jr. is rising and they probably like Dane to an extent, one of those OF spots is probably purely club controlled and revolving. Especially since Edwards and Brujan can pop out there. So I'll make Sanchez/DLC a pick 1 as they probably keep 1.

So this would be the pencil projection for 2025 as of today. Still $61m range.

C _____, _____
1B Burger, Martorella
2B ____, Edwards
SS _____, Brujan
3B _____
LF _____, DLC/Sanchez
CF Jazz
RF Marsee/Mesa Jr./Dane

SP Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Max (Eury midseason)
RHP _____, Faucher, Go, Bender, Hoeing
LHP Nardi, Puk, Weathers

Three blank lines - Luzardo/Scott, scale the payroll to $64m. Might get someone else like Fortes on top of that.

And how much over $64m will they spend on floor 3, maybe 4 bats/closer. The big question here.

I mean come on dude. You listed 6 of 9 starters they need to get in a single offseason to be a decent team, and you expect that to be realistic? It’s ridiculous.
Kim left flaring holes open for years without addressing them and we’re seeing the affects now.