2024 Game Thread

[Namaste]

This made me check JJ’s stats for the season, and I was expecting to see more than DLC in CF.

DLC is the best hitter the Marlins have right now wouldn't you agree? Would be nice to have another one of him.

[Nick]

To say she’s been smoked because Bleday has been Mediocre for a month and a half instead of awful is a stretch.

[lou]

10 innings

.393 BABIP

3.71 xFIP

But yeah I'm definitely expecting him to get injured down there from the ramp up ramp down.

What a time to be a diehard.

He's working on a third offering (changeup). When he was up, he threw an absurd amount of sliders (49%) as that's his go to pitch obviously. It's not mind games or frankly even service time with this one, it is a he needs a third pitch developmentally or he will become a reliever. Is it better to have him work that out at the MLB level or get crushed, or spend time in AAA after missing a year? This isn't a Kyle Harrison decision right now of just letting him work it out at the MLB level IMO.

[lou]

Kim Ng got SMOKED in the JJ Bleday trade

especially because she traded a desperately needed bat for an arm

Bleday isn't very good. This is a whatever 4th OF profile if he is good enough defensively - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

Puk (2023) is a super elite RP waiting to happen - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Maybe the SP idea is a bust, but he's probably going to get over the BB rate yips and be a very good reliever for years. I think nearly every team in baseball would try to trade for him right now if they perceive a discount.

[lou]

DLC is the best hitter the Marlins have right now wouldn't you agree? Would be nice to have another one of him.

Jazz is better (but I am taking into account position players not hitters). But DLC might be second right now as Burger is struggling. DLC expected slash .284/.334/.522, and launch angle is still above last year. 35/168 of qualified hitters in xwOBA. DLC has been very good for him.

He will have a large market in mid June if he keeps this up another month with 3 more control years. Could be the perfect storm of "selling high" as some team believing in that slash and 2024 changes are for real and not a 250 PA SSS may view him as a cheap DH for 3.5 years. He may only cost someone $14m range for 3.5 years or arbitration and that's assuming he stays around where he is in actual stats right now. Comparable FA types like Soler and Gurriel are making $14m per season so there is potentially a huge cost savings here for someone who believes.

This is a good development and a potentially great one if it keeps up another 100 PA. You could see someone like KC trading someone like Carter Jensen for him (FV45 catcher - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ca...ats?position=C) + another arm. To note, Jensen is their 2nd best C prospect and they have MLB catchers so he's the target to me. Especially if say Trevor Rogers (4.29 xFIP still!) is packaged and get one of the better arms (Frank Mozzicato, another FV45/40+ type with draft pedigree - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/fr...ats?position=P) and a potential reliever or two (maybe H. Owens, Vandy reliever type - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hu...ats?position=P). Rogers is from New Mexico and was going to play college at Texas Tech, so regionally KC is kind of a fit for him to have a change of scenery.

Anyways, I think KC is like the Marlins last year - make moves ASAP because you have a low margin of error. Unlike the Marlins last year, maybe KC will be opportunistic and convince a known seller already to make another move. If KC can get some guys with control years, they really don't have a great farm and just a bunch of FV45/40+ types but that'll work for some mid-tier trade for DLC and Rogers who they desperately need IMO. I think Jensen/Mozzicato/throw in FV40s is perfect for DLC and Rogers. Maybe they get Hoeing/Bender too. All of that is fine if the tear down is happening.

[lou]

MLB pipeline updated:

Noble up to 47 (Teel up to 31)
Max up to 84
New addition - WHITE to 90

No D. Head or VMJR unfortunately

Luzardo targets (who is obviously fine and no value has dropped, let's not have knee jerk reactions again Marlins Twitter)

B. Lee 16
C. Mayo 21
(Teel 31) (Other Red Sox, like, Bleis, fell out)
Dominguez 32
M. Shaw 44
Rushing 53 (No Cartaya and other Dodgers arms fell out)

[Nick]

Decided to turn on the game while folding my clothes. Mistake.

[Namaste]

Good Sixto start ruined

[lou]

Good Sixto start ruined

I know you're provoking the bear here, but he really didn't look that great. The FB is flat and the velocity drop is really impacting him. Fish16 is right (even though he can't handle any ribbing over him making it back to the league) that he looks a bit cooked as he's a 1 pitch guy right now and its a changeup. He should really be in AAA so he's lucky AF he's on the Marlins to get a MLB salary in a dead year. I'd keep throwing him just to get innings built up on his arm and maybe he is slowly getting himself back into physical shape.

That being said, if we're looking for some positives, look at his pitch progression.... (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamef...ortId=1#746471)

1st Inning - FB was 90/91 and rarely used, threw predominant cutters/changeups
2nd Inning - First 22 pitches were not FB (cutter/changeups, and some fleeting sinkers), then he threw some FB to get out of the inning and was hitting 93/94 with a peak 95.7
3rd inning - More cutters/changeups, then started with some FB, 94/95. Peak 95.2
4th inning - Fastballs. Mostly 95/96. Last 9 pitches in inning over 96.4 with a peak 96.5
5th Inning - Back to offspeed stuff, then threw FB to last two batters 94/95. Hit 96.2 last pitch

Basically this is intentional. They are having him work on the offspeed stuff and holding back his arm so he can get through 4/5 innings as they just need the innings right now because the team is a mess. That's impacting his overall FB velocity on the charts as 90/91 MPH pitches when he's hitting 95/96 regularly 4+ innings later is ridiculous to weigh his numbers down. Silver lining?

I think what we want to see is a 96 mph FB Sixto with his changeup which is still good, and maybe he can get his cutter/sinker into an acceptable show-me 3rd pitch even if it never develops into anything more. That's not turning into a SP, but that could be a good enough RP as he still is showing a good barrel rate and getting groundballs (84th percentile in SSS!). So I think they are just having him work on stuff, and an inevitable "max effort" bullpen move is coming once he has been healthy long enough. Maybe that's in August after another 10-12 or so 4-5 inning appearances, as that should get him to around 90-100 IP on the year which is probably a pretty good number for him.

I'm intrigued about a max effort 96+ mph FB Sixto as a reliever so I hope we get to see that in August/September. No expectations here, but this isn't a complete lost cause even if he should be in AAA working this all out.

[Namaste]

[QUOTE=lou;n591889]

I know you're provoking the bear here, but he really didn't look that great. The FB is flat and the velocity drop is really impacting him. Fish16 is right (even though he can't handle any ribbing over him making it back to the league) that he looks a bit cooked as he's a 1 pitch guy right now and its a changeup. He should really be in AAA so he's lucky AF he's on the Marlins to get a MLB salary in a dead year. I'd keep throwing him just to get innings built up on his arm and maybe he is slowly getting himself back into physical shape.

That being said, if we're looking for some positives, look at his pitch progression.... (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamef...ortId=1#746471)

1st Inning - FB was 90/91 and rarely used, threw predominant cutters/changeups
2nd Inning - First 22 pitches were not FB (cutter/changeups, and some fleeting sinkers), then he threw some FB to get out of the inning and was hitting 93/94 with a peak 95.7
3rd inning - More cutters/changeups, then started with some FB, 94/95. Peak 95.2
4th inning - Fastballs. Mostly 95/96. Last 9 pitches in inning over 96.4 with a peak 96.5
5th Inning - Back to offspeed stuff, then threw FB to last two batters 94/95. Hit 96.2 last pitch

Basically this is intentional. They are having him work on the offspeed stuff and holding back his arm so he can get through 4/5 innings as they just need the innings right now because the team is a mess. That's impacting his overall FB velocity on the charts as 90/91 MPH pitches when he's hitting 95/96 regularly 4+ innings later is ridiculous to weigh his numbers down. Silver lining?

I think what we want to see is a 96 mph FB Sixto with his changeup which is still good, and maybe he can get his cutter/sinker into an acceptable show-me 3rd pitch even if it never develops into anything more. That's not turning into a SP, but that could be a good enough RP as he still is showing a good barrel rate and getting groundballs (84th percentile in SSS!). So I think they are just having him work on stuff, and an inevitable "max effort" bullpen move is coming once he has been healthy long enough. Maybe that's in August after another 10-12 or so 4-5 inning appearances, as that should get him to around 90-100 IP on the year which is probably a pretty good number for him.

I'm intrigued about a max effort 96+ mph FB Sixto as a reliever so I hope we get to see that in August/September. No expectations here, but this isn't a complete lost cause even if he should be in AAA working this all out.[/QUOTEi]








* I screwed up the quoting of @lou's post


As someone who watched every single pitch, I disagree. He induced a ton of ground balls and pop flys (and a couple of those pop flys found grass).

Brujan caused him to throw a ton more pitches and he gave up 0 ER's.

But that's just my eye test. What does the FIP for the game say (I don't know how to look that up).

And I wasn't poking fish16, it looked like a genuine good outing (maybe 2 hard hit balls the whole outing) and I'm not the only one who thought it was a good outing).

But maybe I'm wrong. It was not an amazing outing (only 2 K's) but this isn't 2020 Sixto. But I believe there is a spot for him on this team

[lou]

[QUOTE=Namaste;n591890]

As someone who watched every single pitch, I disagree. He induced a ton of ground balls and pop flys (and a couple of those pop flys found grass).

Brujan caused him to throw a ton more pitches and he gave up 0 ER's.

But that's just my eye test. What does the FIP for the game say (I don't know how to look that up).

And I wasn't poking fish16, it looked like a genuine good outing (maybe 2 hard hit balls the whole outing) and I'm not the only one who thought it was a good outing).

But maybe I'm wrong. It was not an amazing outing (only 2 K's) but this isn't 2020 Sixto. But I believe there is a spot for him on this team

If you go to Fangraphs/Game log, you can see a breakout per game - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/si...tion=P&season=

He had a 3.57 FIP last night and xFIP 4.48. I think that is easily explainable also.

The basic progression is - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=746471

Greene should have gotten a hit in the 1st inning, so +1 luck
Unlucky with Kelly hit in 2nd, so -1 Luck so back to neutral
Perfect 3rd
Perfect 4th
Got a little lucky not giving up a single to Greene in 5th (.430 expectancy and hit pretty hard), so +1 luck

So he should have given up 1 more hit. Given the other honest hits + walks, and giving up at least 9 hard hit balls, that would have been 8 base runners in 4.2 innings (1.71 WHIP) and only 2 whiffs (3.86 K/9) so I'd say that is statistically a recipe for disaster even if some of those hits are dribbles and why that xFIP is high even with some weaker contact on some of the singles.

But pull out innings 1/2, he should have done this after that. i.e., when he was throwing harder - 2.2 IP, 2 1B, 1 BB, 1K, 0 ER

This is an outrageous SSS, but if there is a silver lining, he whiffs one dude instead of a single or a walk, and that's a great proverbial 1 time through the lineup max effort RP. And that stat line above would have been second time through the lineup so it could play up first time through to get that strikeout.

There might be something here, but it's just a max effort 1-2+ IP guy right now. I think they are just throwing him as they have to throw him to build up his arm after so much lost time. If he can rest at 96 MPH over 5 innings, maybe there is a little something more here and he can be a # 5 SP without a strong 3rd pitch. I think it's a great story he's back, but I think it's tracking the velocity as that is going to make/break him. Throwing his first three fastballs at 90, 90.6, and 91.1 mph, and his last three 70 pitches later at 95, 95.3, and 96.2 is an intentional choice, so what is the plan here is my question. That is a crazy gap.

[lou]

Brujan is also .269/.337/.423, with a .303 BABIP, 7% BB, 12.8% K rate. .718 / .782 platoon split. Defensively is showing neutral defense at 2B, SS, and OF, but outrageously SSS. He is terrible at 3B so he needs to stop getting time there completely and focus on the good. This is a good development if he can handle any two of 2B/SS/OF and hits like that. Berti has a career .336 OBP/.365 SLUG for perspective. This I think is the interesting one as he's up to 86 PA and another 50+ we'll have a good baseline. Hopefully this is a late bloomer and not just a good 2-3 weeks like that one time Brinson was good for 2-3 weeks and then nothing.

[Namaste]

NOBODY MOVE

[Namaste]

Weathers was perfect through 5 innings. Was.

[Namaste]

He's faced 2 batters over the minimum through 8 innings