2024 Game Thread

[Namaste]

Arraez hits into clutch double play with 2 runners on

[Nick]

I know this is the millionth Baltimore trade that's been proposed but:

BAL gets:

Luzardo
Scott
Noble Meyer

MIA gets:

Coby Mayo - 3B
Heston Kjerstad - OF
Dylan Beavers - OF
Creed Willems - C

[Namaste]

Sixto struck out 2 and hit 96 today.

[lou]

What is this Bold part based on?

Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, CJ Cron, Schwarber (.9 WAR last year with 47 HR), Adam Dunn, etc. Jake Burger being already 28. These kind of guys always have a shelf life and you trade them 1 year early versus 2 years late if the opportunity presents itself. He's probably got 2-4 good years in him and that's it. But they may be 2-4 really good years before the bottom drops out.

[lou]

How the heck are you going to expect to go 5 for 5 in trades, to give us exactly what we need in 6 young, cheap bats?

Here's a solution, keep Burger and Arraez, and you need 4 bats instead of 6.

But why would you not turn Arraez into a club controlled bat for 6 years and recoup $18+m? Burger I get, he can be kept and it's purely opportunistic.

Arraez has gotta go because Kim didn't sign him. Unless Bruce moves to $130m payroll land and then resign him now to be your longterm 1B/DH.

[Nick]

Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, CJ Cron, Schwarber (.9 WAR last year with 47 HR), Adam Dunn, etc. Jake Burger being already 28. These kind of guys always have a shelf life and you trade them 1 year early versus 2 years late if the opportunity presents itself. He's probably got 2-4 good years in him and that's it. But they may be 2-4 really good years before the bottom drops out.

What is the connection between those guys? White guys that hit homers?

I feel like you could make a list on the positive side just as easily.

[lou]

C - ????
1B - Arraez
2B - Edwards
3B - ????
SS - ????
LF - Gordon/DLC/Sanchez - Pick 2
CF - Jazz
RF - ????
DH - Burger

Deal Rogers, Luzardo, Scott and one of Meyer/White

Hopefully you can get a C, 3B and OF out of that. Sign Willy Adames, Sign a SP innings eater, find a way to cobble together a bullpen through free agency and trades, and maybe if the Rotation holds up, you got something there.

That's about a $100m team with Adames, so there might be a limited Rosario/Lorenzen/M. Taylor budget for 3 more guys here + club controlled options. I don't hate it, but Arraez becomes a free agent and you don't really recoup his payroll in 2026 due to Jazz/Burger/SP arbitration raises. So someone like Berry will need to work out and replace, etc.

[lou]

What is the connection between those guys? White guys that hit homers?

I feel like you could make a list on the positive side just as easily.

Big bodied, non-defenders who swing very hard with high strikeout potential which is why they drop. I'd be interested in seeing the list of the big guys hitting well over 30/31, and it can't be just identifying the Miguel Cabreras out there. Stanton has 4.4 WAR age 30-34. These guys just fall apart, and Stanton is an incredible athlete on top of those guys.

[lou]

I know this is the millionth Baltimore trade that's been proposed but:

BAL gets:

Luzardo
Scott
Noble Meyer

MIA gets:

Coby Mayo - 3B
Heston Kjerstad - OF
Dylan Beavers - OF
Creed Willems - C

They should move mountains to get those guys, especially because our previous love (Westburg) is kicking ass and looks like he belongs. They will wait out Holliday for years and have Urias/Mateo and Norby can dabble there if he does need another year or two. Move mountains to get the first two and whoever else will make sense. Take back some payroll (Hays) too as that deal does feel a bit light moving Noble along with Luzardo so to quib a 5th guy should probably be included on their end whether it is a MLB payroll move or another prospect.

But that's the kind of trade they need to make, and they need to do it over 2-4 players from the Luzardo, Arraez, Burger, Rogers, Cabrera, Garrett, Weathers, Puk, etc. level guys and it should be those first 4 if they do the maximum logical trades here as Cabrera/Garrett/Weathers have much more team control and Puk is just a disaster right now.

I think we all agree radical changes need to be made so I guess we'll just wait to see what happens. They need so much I'd just clear out absolutely as much payroll as possible and go young. Fill the team with guys who can play defense, go 1st to 3rd to stop double plays, etc. Get rid of these Bell, Soler, Arraez, Burger, DLC, Johnston, Bleday, Berry, etc. non-defender types. Keep one on the roster at most to DH. Big, radical changes.

[Nick]

Big bodied, non-defenders who swing very hard with high strikeout potential which is why they drop. I'd be interested in seeing the list of the big guys hitting well over 30/31, and it can't be just identifying the Miguel Cabreras out there. Stanton has 4.4 WAR age 30-34. These guys just fall apart, and Stanton is an incredible athlete on top of those guys.

Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion

[Todd]

Big bodied, non-defenders who swing very hard with high strikeout potential which is why they drop. I'd be interested in seeing the list of the big guys hitting well over 30/31, and it can't be just identifying the Miguel Cabreras out there. Stanton has 4.4 WAR age 30-34. These guys just fall apart, and Stanton is an incredible athlete on top of those guys.

Burger is actually pretty athletic with decent speed despite his size and Achilles injuries and has a really good arm.

I say start having him shag fly balls, throw him in CF and let him be the Marlins version of Lance Berkman. Move Jazz back to 2B and Arraez to 1B.

[Nick]

Victor Mesa Jr. is crushing the ball in AAA right now. I feel like he got off to a real hot start last year too, but still something to keep an eye on.

[lou]

Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion

Burger is actually pretty athletic with decent speed despite his size and Achilles injuries and has a really good arm.

I say start having him shag fly balls, throw him in CF and let him be the Marlins version of Lance Berkman. Move Jazz back to 2B and Arraez to 1B.

That's not the best comparable list for me with 3 HOF, 2 HofVeryGood, and JD hits for average.

But Edwin is a good/great reference point beyond those names. Abysmal defense, hit well into 30s. He was a very very good contact hitter, which Burger has been (kind of) since he got to Miami but was not prior (and yes I agree with Todd he's a good athlete for a big guy (70th percentile sprint speed) so maybe that is indicative he will hold up a few extra years, or at minimum through his arbitration/club control years which is 2025-2028 as he's a super2), so maybe that's a best case scenario where this new found 20% range whiff rate is the norm for awhile and he's a productive 1B/DH type for years.

Big picture though, I think he's extremely more likely to have a Trumbo/Cron/Schwarber/Stanton career path (very productive 3-4 years and then that's it) where the bottom drops out age 30/31 versus E5 who kept it together. That's just me. Where here, I'm just saying, if you get an opportunistic deal for Burger they should listen as ultimately, he's a DH or platoon 1B and Brandon Belt is unemployed right now and Belt was very good last year. I don't think he's a core building block like Jazz (CF defense creates a high floor, even if its so far not good but SSS) or the SP with control, but that doesn't mean he isn't very good. I'd love for them to just keep him, but it's just that the Marlins need *A LOT* so it's hard to take many guys off the table and he's one I would listen on.

I also don't think Jazz should be moved, I think 2B should be cleared out for Edwards, Cappe, O. Lopez, and gang and hope one of them sticks (basically Edwards). This is of course once Arraez is traded as that is coming for sure IMO. If they keep Burger, I think it's a 1B/DH situation.

[lou]

Also about Burger, why not Luzardo and Burger for..... Mayo, Kjerstad, Norby, and Creed right? Baltimore has to seriously consider giving up both of them and Norby for that with Burger's control added to Luzardo, and they are primed to win right now and not wait a year or two for Mayo or Kjerstad to fully transition. They are going to have some growing pains as is with Holliday it looks and otherwise are primed to go.

C Aldy (+Basallo down the road as a backup?)
1B Mountcastle ----> Basallo
2B Holliday
SS Gunnar
3B Westburg
LF Hayes + Cowser
CF Mullins -----> Bradfield
RF Santander -----> Beavers/Stowers/Fabian
DH Burger
+ O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo for bench guys

I mean, amazing? Once they do some extensions, this is Braves-esque with the team together for 6-8 years (+Grayson, Luzardo, and Bradish!) with just this group and only having to add an Adam Duvall or Amed Rosario here or there to plug a spot. The Marlins would have to do that for obvious reasons. Trims payroll, turns 7 seasons of Luzardo and Burger into 20+ years of guys cheaper for next 4-5 years.

That's all I'm saying here. Marlins need a ton and anything past Eury, Sandy, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers, and Jazz (and extend him) is on the table for me. I just want to keep the rotation + 1 guy and Jazz is just a real building block to me even with his faults.


Also want to note here imagine they do end up moving Luzardo/Burger to the Orioles for that, and then move Arraez + Rogers (who looks good!!) to the Red Sox which nets something like Kyle Teel, Miguel Bleis, and Chase Meidroth (could do this for the Pirates too with Endy, but just typing here). The Red Sox would have to do that to win right now too, and they can afford it with Bello and Rafaella extensions, plus Casas and Houck are likely next, and Mayer and Anthony and Yorke and others are going to be cheap for years and years.

It quickly becomes for the Marlins maybe opening day 2025:

C Teel, Fortes/Banfield/Bethancourt/Pereda
1B _____
2B Norby, Edwards
SS _____
3B Mayo, C. Meidroth/Brujan/Rivera/Lopez
LF Kjerstad, Gordon/DLC/Brujan/Dane
CF Jazz, _____/Mesa Jr./Sasaki
RF Sanchez/Garcia/Gordon/DLC/Brujan/Dane ----> Bleis down the road in 1-2 years

SP Sandy, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers (Eury DL)
BULK Puk
RP _____, Nardi, Bender, and they can fill this out with Sixto/Faucher/Cronin/Soriano types

Minors - Decent P pipeline still exists with Noble, White, Fulton, Monteverde, Milbrandt, Miller, Maldonado, Simpson, etc. They will get some guys here

$60-65m max payroll in 2025, includes Garcia money. Add the obvious big ticket item here to add is Adames $22m --->$85m. If they spend like 2023..... that's $25m for a 1B, RP, and platoon OF more than likely. And Scott, Bell, and others aren't accounted for in this trade scenario, and maybe they bring back immediate relievers or another bench bat type.


This is ultimately very doable and Burger doesn't really matter too much to the big picture as the name of the game is to just shed money, acquire 5+ club controlled bats which I think is very doable if Luzardo, Arraez, Rogers, Scott, and Burger are moved, and then actually spend to 2023 levels again which is a lot easier as those 4 guys (excluding Scott as a FA) would easily make $30m in 2025. It pays for Adames and "Brandon Belt" as-is and then up to Bruce to do the right thing.

And hell, keep Burger and throw him on that blank 1B line above and that team scales to $90m tops and just task Bendix to work really really really hard to get great value for Luzardo, Arraez, Rogers, Scott, and Bell to turn those 5 guys into 5 play-now 2025 players. I think this is very doable. So this year fucking sucks, but I do think we are going to swing back around into some confidence quickly when something like this happens FWIW.

[lou]

Victor Mesa Jr. is crushing the ball in AAA right now. I feel like he got off to a real hot start last year too, but still something to keep an eye on.

If he turns into a poor man's Trent Grisham type or younger Michael Taylor, that would be a great development, let alone more.