2024 Game Thread

[rmc523]

Y’all have a lot of faith that they actually have a plan…..I have 0 confidence there’s a plan aside from hiring more AGMs and signing Rays cast offs

[lou]

Y’all have a lot of faith that they actually have a plan…..I have 0 confidence there’s a plan aside from hiring more AGMs and signing Rays cast offs

They sent out Bendix for a press round because Marlins fans are so annoyed (rightfully) - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...287784770.html

I didn't find his responses awful, besides saying they like what Anderson is doing which is bullcrap.


The TLDR is this question for me:

Herald - If you had one thing that you felt you had to accomplish before the end of the 2024 season, what would that be?

Bendix - “We need to have continued evaluation of our many young players. There’s a lot of opportunity for players to step up and show that they can be a part of our future.”


Yep, because the plan is we are going to trade out all the $$$$ and are crossing our fingers we get some players internally out of Fortes, Edwards, Rivera, Otto, Sanchez, DLC, Gordon, Brujan, etc. so we don't have too many holes to fill.


That team I typed above (especially with Burger on the blank line) makes a lot of sense. Not sure if they'd spend on Adames, but if that money is simply used on 4-5 players instead, it still can work. 5+ club controlled bats for Luzardo, Arraez, Scott, Bell, Chargois, probably another SP and I bet Rogers there, maybe Burger or even Jazz if an opportunistic deal. That's coming for sure and it is in fact, an actual plan and the 2025 team could be very good with a healthy Sandy, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, and Weathers as the core rotation (+Eury eventually). I'm a believer in the arms if they don't get hurt, but maybe that is my blind spot.

My ideal ROS is:

-Bruce sells the team
-SP Health
-Jazz extension
-Cabrera extension
-Luzardo - big trade, 2 big name bats for 2025. Ideally Baltimore
-Arraez - big trade, 1 big name bat for 2005. Ideally a catcher from Boston/Pitt/Sea/LAD/SD
-Rogers - big trade, 1 big name bat
-Scott, Bell, Chargois, Bethancourt, others - Farm depth trades/bench players
-Sanchez, DLC, Gordon, or Brujan turns into a starting calibre player or high end platoon guy
-Edwards (or Lopez) turns into a good Berti type or better
-Fortes/Banfield/Pereda is an acceptable backup catcher
-Someone else turns into a bench guy from Rivera/Lopez/Brujan/Johnston/Bride/whoever or Mesa Jr./Berry/Cappe really breaks out for a 2025 role
-They get 3+ back end or better relievers from Sixto, Cronin, Soriano, Maldonado, Simpson, Faucher, and whoever. Nothing special here.

If just that happens, I think 2025 is interesting quickly. One thing won't happen at the top, but I don't think the rest is unreasonable at all. Bendix will have done a good job if that happens from today forward, and then all eyes are on Bruce and what's he approving on payroll to make up for the losses of Luzardo and Arraez in particular.

[rmc523]

I found the interview to be mostly generic BS….”we looked into trades and free agents”,….sure you did. “Bruce hasn’t turned down any expenditures”…..ok sure buddy. etc etc

[lou]

I found the interview to be mostly generic BS….”we looked into trades and free agents”,….sure you did. “Bruce hasn’t turned down any expenditures”…..ok sure buddy. etc etc

It all makes sense if you accept they were planning to punt 2024, but do it in a way to save face (not do the trades preseason in the faint hope the team is alright enough to not piss everyone off but bad enough to trade in July as a non-contender). The problem is, they lost that bet and the team is struggling and then Eury got really hurt and still no Garrett so it's a disaster. (And, this should have never been the plan, but it is, and this is what ownership is.)

My only issue with this is, this is stupid and make the unapologetic baseball move of just pulling the plug preseason versus trying to have your cake and eat it too. That's Bendix's rookie mistake here. Once a decision is made, just do it and don't apologize for it. Be brave and bold and say, we have to rebuild a year and 2025 we expect to make the playoffs. Sign Jazz, Eury, and Cabrera right now to mitigate that vision once you trade the others, etc. Imagine that, they trade out all these guys right now, but announce simultaneously Jazz, Eury, and Cabrera extensions. I think we'd all approve immediately as it's this plan you mention.


In any event, everyone is gonna be enthused when this is the team IMO. But we just have to get here:

C - ____, Fortes/Banfield/Pereda/____
1B - Burger
2B - _____, Edwards
SS - ______, ______
3B - ______
LF - ______, DLC/Gordon/Dane/_____
CF - Jazz, ______
RF - Sanchez/Gordon/Brujan/Dane/Garcia/____

SP - Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Max
BULK - Puk, Weathers
RP - ______, ______, Nardi, Bender, Sixto/Soriano/Faucher/Monteverde, Cronin/Maldonado/Simpson/Whoever


Luzardo/Arraez/Rogers/Scott/Bell/Chargois/Bethancourt/Whoever ----> 4-5 blank lines

$30m (2024 spending, $90m spending overall) to $50m (2023 spending, $110m overall) ----> 4-6 blank lines. Or Bruce wows us and spends more.

(And could be less than 9-12 guys needed if they get lucky and Lopez, Rivera, Bride, Mesa Jr., Berry, Cappe, Sasaki, extra relievers, or whoever blossom and fill some more of those spots internally)



You can sign me up for slogging through this year quickly if something like Teel/Endy/H.Ford (C), Norby/Yorke/Foscoe (2B), Adames (SS), Mayo/Westburg (3B), and Kjerstad/Bleis (LF) are those five primary adds which is not unrealistic and within 2024 budget. Assuming it is normal Luzardo and Arraez, Scott is fine, and this is the version of Rogers one gets moving forward, very doable.

I believe in the pitching and Bendix being able to trade valuable players ultimately. That's all it comes down to even if Bruce definitely sucks.

[Namaste]

I'm very skeptical that we are getting 2 big bats for Luzardo

[lou]

I'm very skeptical that we are getting 2 big bats for Luzardo

If he implodes maybe not, but in a world Kyle Gibson 1/$13m and Luzardo will cost 2.5/$24m for someone, with the potential to sign longer like Pablo (because the Twins are smart and the Marlins are not with extensions) or give a QO and get a draft pick, he's going to get a haul for sure.

Burnes got 2 really good prospects for 1 year and Baltimore is paying him a fortune for it. Yes, he is better if he is fully clicking, but a purely surplus value analysis has Luzardo as more valuable if he is a 2.5 WAR player, let alone the 3.5 pace he's done his last 300 innings. The White Sox got a lot for Cease and they were pretty close in production last year. They will get a lot absent some serious regression. Everyone is desperate for pitching.

If I was Baltimore or Boston, I'd run to try and give them some further away guys not named Basallo or Anthony, and headline the play-now guy as Mayo/Kjerstad/Teel/Mayer and Norby/Yorke. And ask for Scott/something else as a second piece. I'm not worried at all here absent a Luzardo injury or something really bad an unexpected happens.

[rmc523]

I wont believe Bruce will spend anything until I see it. He’d be happy with a $10M payroll and call it a day

[lou]

I wont believe Bruce will spend anything until I see it. He’d be happy with a $10M payroll and call it a day

Sure but what's spending? If he spends like 2023 on opening day, the 2025 team is going to be very good on paper IMO unless they really decide to target higher upside A ball guys a few years away (like John Cruz). That would be disappointing. Obviously, I think they will do well enough with Luzardo/Arraez/other trades but maybe the guys they have to move really tank impacting a strategy here.

But I can't imagine they don't see what they have with Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, and Weathers at a minimum and decide we're going to punt this to 2027 and target to be good with Eury in year 4, Max year 5, Weathers year 5, and presumably Noble year 1-2, Fulton year 3, and White year 1-2, etc.. That's like insane when you already have Sandy, Cabrera (I think he is going to really blossom. I am excited), Garrett, maybe you keep Rogers and Puk, + Jazz/Burger are legitimate building blocks at a minimum.

I'd like to see what Fish16 always says - have someone in the media drill them. I'd ask every press conference if 2025 payroll will match 2023 and keep asking until you get a yes or as close to it as possible. Bruce is cheap, but if he is bottom 10 not bottom 3 cheap, it could work with their personnel for a few years before "Glasnow" decisions would need to be made, etc.

[Nick]

We called up a guy named Roddery Munoz to start one of the doubleheader games tomorrow. He has an 11 ERA at AAA.

Max Meyer will be starting for AAA Jacksonville tomorrow.

[Nick]

Can we end the Puk Starter experiment?

[lou]

Can we end the Puk Starter experiment?

I came here for this. It's definitely time to move him back to the pen. I think it's mental and they can try again in late August once he gets his confidence back if ever. Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Weathers, and whoever until Garrett is back is fine for this year.

This is also going to severely depress his arbitration raise next year. If he throws a 3 ERA over 54 innings in the pen the rest of the year, he's still going to have a 4.25 ERA. Puk is gonna cost $2m next year so this experiment may be saving them a half million or more. What a mess.

[Namaste]

DLC leads the team in Hits and Home Runs. It's a very sad state of affairs.

[rmc523]

Sure but what's spending? If he spends like 2023 on opening day, the 2025 team is going to be very good on paper IMO unless they really decide to target higher upside A ball guys a few years away (like John Cruz). That would be disappointing. Obviously, I think they will do well enough with Luzardo/Arraez/other trades but maybe the guys they have to move really tank impacting a strategy here.

But I can't imagine they don't see what they have with Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, and Weathers at a minimum and decide we're going to punt this to 2027 and target to be good with Eury in year 4, Max year 5, Weathers year 5, and presumably Noble year 1-2, Fulton year 3, and White year 1-2, etc.. That's like insane when you already have Sandy, Cabrera (I think he is going to really blossom. I am excited), Garrett, maybe you keep Rogers and Puk, + Jazz/Burger are legitimate building blocks at a minimum.

I'd like to see what Fish16 always says - have someone in the media drill them. I'd ask every press conference if 2025 payroll will match 2023 and keep asking until you get a yes or as close to it as possible. Bruce is cheap, but if he is bottom 10 not bottom 3 cheap, it could work with their personnel for a few years before "Glasnow" decisions would need to be made, etc.

The guy wouldn’t even match 2023 playoff year payroll in 2024….what makes you think he’ll match that going forward? “Spending” for him probably means $100M at best. I mean isn’t that like 1/3 of his net worth?

[lou]

The guy wouldn’t even match 2023 playoff year payroll in 2024….what makes you think he’ll match that going forward? “Spending” for him probably means $100M at best. I mean isn’t that like 1/3 of his net worth?

He’s probably worth $600-700m but Oaklands owner is worth 5x that and does shit. It’s not necessarily correlated.

But I think the argument would be Sandy, not full arm inventory with Eury, Max, Cabrera, and Rogers off injured seasons + youth, one run luck, smoke and mirrors so would an extra $20m in spending over 3-4 players matter to the bottom line?

They executed a poor tank year, and then Eury got hurt. I have no idea what Bruce will spend but the team will probably be pretty ok at $90m and really good at $110m next year and that’s 2024 and 2023 payrolls effectively. No idea what Bruce will do. Just pray the SP doesn’t get hurt and is ready to go in 2025 with presumably Sandy, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, and Weathers.

[Namaste]

DLC go ahead 2 run bomb with 1 out in the 9th

Arraez is fully back too