2024 Game Thread

[rmc523]

bat first college bats with no defensive value early in the first round is just such a dumb idea. Instead of CJ abrams and Brooks lee we have AJ puk for Bleday and Jacob berry who i would guess never sees the majors at this point.

The inability to draft hitters has absolutely destroyed this team. Havent developed a single bat in close to what, 10 years since JT came up?

Bring back Michael Hill? Lol

[lou]

Exactly, and the 3 spots taken are a guy in aa currently, a platoon player in jazz, and a dh ideally in burger, plus a rotation with multiple guys coming off major injuries, and a bullpen with absolutely nothing of note. All while saying it’s not a major multi year rebuild

xFIP / K/9

Faucher 2.99 / 10.80
Nardi 2.99 / 12.86
Hoeing 3.29 / 7.32
Cronin 3.53 / 10.69
Bender 3.62 / 10.93
Puk (once the SP knocks them back fully to the pen)
Weathers

And they just added Go, and there are other guys like Maldonado (or do you hate him now?)


This post is rage amplified by their bad record. The bullpen is actually coming along if you follow the team.

[lou]

While the topic is shifting to FIRE SALE, I have very conflicted feelings about Jazz.

When he's on, he's electric. ++ personality, ++swag, a flair for the dramatic (I believe he's already one grand slam away from tying the franchise record).

When he's off, he's a total mess. His consistent arguing over the strike zone has resulted in him being Villian #1 to umpires all over the league. Now he has a target on his back.

Like has been mentioned many times, he's almost an automatic out vs LHP. That's a SERIOUS problem when you're talking about a big extension, face if the franchise type player.

Then there's the injuries.

His total WAR over the last 3 full seasons is 6.4

It would be a bad baseball decision to keep him if there's an overpay out there.

2+ WAR player as a floor with some huge upside is worth an extension. Not a crazy one, it's in the $60 range over 5 years. Jazz may want to bet on himself and get more though. I think he has that kind of personality, but that's not an insulting deal for him if he wants to cash out on life now and go for another deal later.

They will get something good if they move him, so it's just a question of how much of a turnover are they actually going to have here.

He's a keep for me. You can move him next year if needed. But I think they could replace him. They seem to be targeting OF heavily in these trades. It's likely intentional.

[lou]

Yeah. The only way for them to save any face is to start extending young guys. But I think we are all pretty confident that’s not going to happen. You just have to hope Bendix does a better job of identifying prospects than his predecessors. It doesn’t feel like he’s off to a great start, but we won’t really know for a while.

Mish he’s heard baseball people tell him the return is ok, but that there just wasn’t much interest. And my question to that would be why the he’ll rush and trade him now, then. I suppose maybe they really liked Head. We’ll see. Against all odds, Kieth Law actually liked it for Miami. He called it the best trade they’ve made in years. Nothing he said about the prospects was incredibly encouraging, but he said Head has star potential, and the other guys could be decent bench options.

Honestly, I don’t blame anyone online for overreacting to this. It’s just a continuous cycle of selling players at depreciated value. In a vacuum, it makes some sense obviously. And Bendix wasn’t the one who traded for Arraez to begin with. But for a fan base that has continually seen fan favorites head out the door with no spending, save for brief spurts before fire sales, it’s incredibly frustrating emotionally. And when everyone knows the owner is a joke and will never spend money, it’s hard to have any faith. Hopefully they can build the farm, and fans that get it, can enjoy that. But shit is awfully bleak for this franchise right now, with no reasonable reason to believe it’ll get better.

The bold is 100% correct.

I also agree, they must really love Head (praying no bad jokes here in perpetuity) and value him as a solid FV50 type and will really blossom as a cold weather guy now playing more. I don't agree with Law that isn't the best trade they made in years, but it makes sense if they expect a major development breakout with Head in 1-2 years.

And I do blame the over-reaction as we knew this when they didn't sign anything from the Nick Senzel, Seth Lugo, Amed Rosario, JD Davis, M. Taylor, Mike Clevinger, Duvall, Lorenzen, Pham, Urshela, class of FA. This was always going to happen and frankly, it is GREAT it is happening in early May before Arraez hypothetically gets hurt or defense craters more where his value stays at not much because he is basically a no-slugging DH now that can backup 1B. I think Marlins fans greatly over value Arraez. Those saying he's the best pure hitter in baseball don't understand that guys like Steve Kwan are much better players because they can play defense and run the bases, etc.

It's only bleak because of Bruce. a $110m payroll (2023) Marlins team in 2025 will be very good, but they will need every dollar of that and a scale back to $70-80m is circling 2026 and we should expect a Sandy preseason trade if that is the case. We'll see what happens. I'm hoping Cabrera, Garrett, and one of Rogers, Max, and Weathers can be counted on as a solid 3-4-5 rotation next year as they have the other two once healthy. That's the whole story here.

[lou]

If it hasn’t been mentioned already, we’re paying the Padres $8M too

Now THAT is insane. The only surplus value explanation is they think Head is a rock solid FV50 type (or someone else, but I don't see that based on the scouting reports at all).

They love that guy. Love.

[lou]

The best pure hitter in baseball was the 76th best player in MLB in 2023.

He doesn't get it.

Note, DLC has a higher WAR than Arraez *right now* (obviously that won't continue, but we can't rail on how one player can't field and is a doofus on the bases and ignore someone else who is just as bad in the field and slow on the bases). Arraez is very good, he's not a 4+ WAR player like baseball america says but he's a high floor 2-2.5 WAR platoon 1B/DH as that OBP is going to play. I'm glad he landed in a good spot for him as he's going to be great there, but not sure how many more times we gotta say he does not align with the contending window on this team because *KIM* did not extend him. KIM fucked up here with Arraez.

[lou]

Don't forget the "Werth deal".

It's the only way they will get better.

It doesn't mean they will do it.

[lou]

Josh Bell is all thumbs at 1B

Remember when someone was worried about him opting out and were told it would be a blessing if that happened to open up $16m in payroll as that could be used much better, and it was shrugged it off saying he's an asset and will fill the void of Soler.

This is like a stage of grief problem where we hit denial, anger, skipped bargaining, right to depression, and got to acceptance before spring training, and a large portion of the rest of the fan base is catching up as they convinced themselves in the bargaining phase Tim would play like years prior, Gordon would play as his draft status, Bell and Burger would play like the stretch, the SP wouldn't get injured with no need for a 5th SP at all, etc. What did we think was going to happen? The 0-11 start was special no doubt, but they are 10-15 since then without Eury, Garrett, and missing Cabrera and Luzardo starts. I mean this is all obvious? Nothing is a surprise here except an extra epic opening losing streak. If they were just 10-15 and had all their SP (including Eury), they wouldn't be trading Arraez right now. But things change. It sucks, but necessary for where they are. Is what it is, and the scrutiny is really solely on is Head going to be this good as the other guys don't seem like starters/closers even if they may turn into good role players.

[lou]

Head could be a top 50 prospect next year as a 20 year old. Not a blue chip by any means but not a nobody.

I wonder who's getting launched next. Tanner?

100% Tanner

Then Luzardo when he shows the health. It'll happen quickly. Maybe that's a 1-2 package to really charge up Boston, Baltimore, or New York.

Then a slog to see if Anderson, Bell, Chargois, and Bethancourt will be taken for literally anything, and then listen on Jazz, Burger, DLC, Rogers, Puk, and Bender (the 2025 arbitration guys) and see if you get an above-average deal to make it opportunistic and worth it. IMO anyways.

[lou]

Bendix spoke about the Arraez trade and said the Padres offer was “too good to walk past.”

and also said there’s no “definitive timeline” for a return to competitiveness….and that the Arraez move was the first in a “series of difficult decisions”

….aka another rebuild. I’m still going to follow and post out of habit, but I’m having a hard time seeing another rebuild through…

He's a terrible POBO/GM if he thinks this team needs 3 years.

28 other franchises would be thrilled to have Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers, Max, and Weathers as your top 7 SP in 2025 for under $30m, with at least 6 relievers in house already club controlled (or under $2.5m like Puk and Go). Absent injuries of course. It's a top 10 staff and could be much more the second Eury is back.

They really churn things out with those arms above (except maybe Rogers if he flashes and becomes a deadline move), something is really wrong and it's simply just Bruce ordering a tear down and aiming to be the 2027 Orioles. And yes, I have a hard time seeing that through for sure. We're not here yet though but maybe the doom crowd is right and Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, and Rogers get moved by the end of the year.

[lou]

or he could be the latest in a long line of bats the marlins have failed to develop. Everything is projection with him currently. Lots of guys have tools. As of now, in his very brief minors experience, he seems to have no power and is not a great base stealer. 2 hr's and 7/14 sb's in 225 PA's. .253 average and .726 OPS. And he is 3 fucking years away from the majors at best, and most guys dont hit right away when brought up to the majors. so we are talking about 4 full years before we get any kind of benefit from him in this trade.

Also, tanner scott will be next. someone in the cubs world was saying the cubs were in discussions with the marlins for him. Again, it makes no sense that these moves weren't made in the offseason if this is the route.

All of this is 100% correct besides the bold.

The other 3 guys are probably playing on the team this year and you can see a bunch of time next year. Are they going to be real good? Who knows, but Martorella should be able to hit RHP and Go is going to be useful more than likely. But Head is certainly the make/break player absent some unusual breakout from the others.

[rmc523]

I think it is very realistic for this team to acquire 6 bats trading Jesus Luzardo, Tanner Scott, whatever other spare parts they have, and spending $50 million (2023 payroll estimate). Easily can fit in Adames, Jansen, and a $10m bat with that amount.

Of course, Bruce has to show 2023 wasn't a fluke which I have continually said and I have continually said I don't necessarily expect him to do that, but there is a path. The rotation/staff may be very good in 2025.

And I agree with the bold which is why they need to make these trades? I've been banging this drum since November - remember when I said the best decision is to be a real team and spend, but then the next best is to tear it all down in the offseason and I was met with universal criticism now. Guess I was right.

Ok…

[lou]

How the fuck is Jacob Berry so bad? What a monumental miss.

I have no idea why they didn't take Brooks Lee still

[lou]

Ok…

What's the issue here if Bruce commits to spending 2023 (and also as an aside, do you think they do nothing based on the backlash and it's going to only rise when Luzardo and maybe someone else is traded?) They could easily sign Adames, Jansen, and a $10m LF, and add a premium piece for Luzardo and 1-2 other FV45 type bats as a floor. Under what they spent in 2023. It rebuilds the lineup very quickly as remember, Edwards is also not accounted for in this, nor the two new Padres guys near MLB ready, and maybe they are going to get something out of Brujan, Mesa Jr., or someone else.

The 2024 strategy is very obvious seeing what's happening. They wanted to field an "acceptable" bad team to get to July and make these trades then, but the SP got really hurt, and some of the guys are worse than expected, so that time table has been moved up. They wanted to have their cake and eat it too. If they weren't going to really try, they should have done this all in the offseason and been honest about it as said in November and got yelled at. I fault them heavily for that, but do think it is GOOD they are admitting the mistake and pulling the plug now. I question the return in that is Head going to be this good, but the decision to sell was right and maybe Bendorx is going to be right in the end. Keith Law hates the Marlins so him saying anything neutral or better is a compliment FWIW (would love to see that if someone has an excerpt). That's at least something.


So the question is only one thing - what is Bruce going to do. I think we all agree on the answer, but there is a clear as day path to them being very good with a payroll they have already committed to once so long as the SP can stay healthy. My prediction here is no one is going to check out and be happy with the 20-22 internal guys they have, along with a relatively rebuilt farm, entering 2025 with what the hell is FA going to look like as the only question mark. This isn't being an apologist either. They just have good parts and a low payroll even if the oomph bats are missing. It's all Bruce here to fill that void. I'll be surprised if they trade everything and circle 2027 basically. They are terrible and beyond forgiveness if that happens.

[fish16]

What's the issue here if Bruce commits to spending 2023 (and also as an aside, do you think they do nothing based on the backlash and it's going to only rise when Luzardo and maybe someone else is traded?) They could easily sign Adames, Jansen, and a $10m LF, and add a premium piece for Luzardo and 1-2 other FV45 type bats as a floor. Under what they spent in 2023. It rebuilds the lineup very quickly as remember, Edwards is also not accounted for in this, nor the two new Padres guys near MLB ready, and maybe they are going to get something out of Brujan, Mesa Jr., or someone else.

The 2024 strategy is very obvious seeing what's happening. They wanted to field an "acceptable" bad team to get to July and make these trades then, but the SP got really hurt, and some of the guys are worse than expected, so that time table has been moved up. They wanted to have their cake and eat it too. If they weren't going to really try, they should have done this all in the offseason and been honest about it as said in November and got yelled at. I fault them heavily for that, but do think it is GOOD they are admitting the mistake and pulling the plug now. I question the return in that is Head going to be this good, but the decision to sell was right and maybe Bendorx is going to be right in the end. Keith Law hates the Marlins so him saying anything neutral or better is a compliment FWIW (would love to see that if someone has an excerpt). That's at least something.


So the question is only one thing - what is Bruce going to do. I think we all agree on the answer, but there is a clear as day path to them being very good with a payroll they have already committed to once so long as the SP can stay healthy. My prediction here is no one is going to check out and be happy with the 20-22 internal guys they have, along with a relatively rebuilt farm, entering 2025 with what the hell is FA going to look like as the only question mark. This isn't being an apologist either. They just have good parts and a low payroll even if the oomph bats are missing. It's all Bruce here to fill that void. I'll be surprised if they trade everything and circle 2027 basically. They are terrible and beyond forgiveness if that happens.

you are so fucking delusional it's insane. It absolutely is you being a delusional apologist. Yes, this team with the cheapest owner in almost all of baseball and pretty much 7-8 gaping lineup holes with one of the worst farm systems in baseball and hasnt developed a hitter in close to 10 years and never signs major free agents is just 3 enormous FA signings away. It's just absurd. You regurgitate the same bullshit using literally the exact same players over and over and over and over. They arent signing anyone. They just arent. Get it through your head. No one with any other options signs here. If you yourself had the option to play anywhere else other than here you would. This is a full tear down and a full long term rebuild. The fact that they have pitchers that on paper are a good rotation is irrelevent. If they just keep them all, which they wont, it will be 2022 all over again with an above average rotation and the worst lineup in all of baseball.

They arent trying to win next year. What about all the 19 year old centerpieces they keep acquiring do you not get about they are about to tear this down? Jazz and Tanner scott will not be on this team past the deadline.