2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

I like the idea of claiming Bader. Let him see the organization for a month as he is a top 5 guy this offseason they should sign IMO. He's perfect as a guy who assaults lefties and plays defense against righties so he's not a massive liability, etc. I imagine there is some Skip ties also with St. Louis?

If they could nab Bader on an immediate extension and keep Soler on a QO or 2 year deal they could do this offensively:

____, Fortes
Bell
Arraez, Berti
____, Amaya
Burger
Jazz, Soler
Bader, Edwards
Sanchez

AAA - Banfield, Johnston, Nasim, Myers, Burdick, Mesa Jr.


The guy missing here is DLC who I am imagining is packaged with some arm and gets a comparable SS/IF type in this scenario. Maybe not a premium guy, but I think Berti, Amaya, and someone new can handle it, and Edwards will play all over. There is some OF starved team (Cleveland?) that probably have a FV45 play-now SS guy they can move for DLC and something, etc.

This is like a $115m team with Bader and Soler so it's getting expensive, so they'd have to keep all the main pitching and could do this:

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera
Luzardo, Garrett, Rogers
Chargois, _____ (pick a guy below)
Scott, Puk, Okert, Nardi, Weathers

AAA - Brazoban, Soriano, Maldonado, Hoeing, and if healthy, Meyer, Bender, and Sixto + likely a RuleV right hander again


I think this is a pretty good team on paper and the pitching would sort itself out with Meyer coming back strong eventually and some of those other RP types are could replacement arms. This would get them to the deadline with another Amaya or better SS and literally anything at catcher. I do think Fortes will be better next year FWIW even if more of a backup type it seems.



Anyways, all in on Bader to help now and later. The Angels guys would be fun too, but I'm just thinking longterm here in addition to an immediate upgrade.

you're overthinking it. Bader is a free agent. He has been flat out bad now for 2 full years. They wont give Jazz or Arraez an extension, in what world are they giving a waiver claim an extension? The bigger need is Giolito and Lopez, maybe if they want to get Renfroe or Grichuk for the last month and send DLC down if he has options, that works for me too, but they arent signing any of these guys to an extension. It's purely to take on salary for a month to hopefully get a little more production and then all of those guys are testing free agency anyways. I think Bader's reputation far outweighs his actual production for most of his career for whatever reason. He's a career 93 WRC+. He's a good defensive 5th and maybe 4th OF. He's not a starter though with his offensive production. He doesnt have a ton of power, he doesnt get on base very well, he doesnt walk. Look at his baseball savant, he is a phenomenal defender but he cant hit at all.

Id go after Grichuk or Renfroe and try to get more offensive production. That's what this lineup really needs at this point. Giolito, Lopez, and Renfroe/Grichuk and send down/dump Lopez, Hoeing, and then we have the expanded rosters to take on the outfielder. Worth it for a month to see if they can climb back in it. Realistically though, this team is done.

[Namaste]

You guys can both be right there. It could be a lot of soft contact bloops, which also lead to a high xFIP because they are high probability bloops. It's a SSS. Sandy has not been great this year, but he is also underachieving a bit probably.

It was a bloop fest. fish16 doesn’t know that because he wasn’t watching. How do I know he wasn’t watching? Because he wasn’t crying about how bad Skip was during the first 6 innings.

If Sandy’s xFIP was in the high 5’s last night, I no longer believe it’s a good stat. The entire downfall to Sandy’s start last night was a pop fly that HAS TO BE CAUGHT. It was an obvious mistake by Arraez when he ran way too deep into RF causing Soler to hit the brakes to avoid a bad collision. That kind of nonsense should never reflect poorly on a pitcher who was grooving and in command.

[fish16]

It was a bloop fest. fish16 doesn’t know that because he wasn’t watching. How do I know he wasn’t watching? Because he wasn’t crying about how bad Skip was during the first 6 innings.

If Sandy’s xFIP was in the high 5’s last night, I no longer believe it’s a good stat. The entire downfall to Sandy’s start last night was a pop fly that HAS TO BE CAUGHT. It was an obvious mistake by Arraez when he ran way too deep into RF causing Soler to hit the brakes to avoid a bad collision. That kind of nonsense should never reflect poorly on a pitcher who was grooving and in command.

I was watching, clearly closer than you. just because balls arent hit hard doesnt make it bad luck. It wasnt a bloop fest, it was death by 1000 cuts. they hit a bunch of singles. To give up on an entire stat you were basing an entire argument on literally 3 days ago because reality doesnt fit your narrative seems pretty fucking dumb as opposed to just admitting you werent correct. Sandy was also bailed out in the first inning by a running leaping Jazz catch in CF.

I wasnt bitching about Skip because this team is done and id rather go down with your best pitcher giving up the death blow as opposed to jorge lopez or another shitty middle reliever, even if sandy was done and out of gas. I've been consistent on that all year. Also, i did bitch about skip in literally the first inning last night in response to nick's comment about Sanchez not playing against a righty after an off day.

Here's the expected batting averages on sandy's hits last night- .290, .400, .290, .290, .100 (the blooper), .930, .890. He also got outs on balls that had expected batting averages of- .500, .450, .310. It evens out, he walked another 2 guys and hit another batter. He gave up 10 hits walks and hbp's in 5+ innings. He wasnt good, and that's why the XFIP for him is correct last night, not because the entire stat is now wrong.

[fish16]

nightengale says we are expected to put claims on the angels relievers. no word on who but id imagine it's lopez and probably matt moore. Id put Giolito and renfroe/Grichuk on their as well.

Send soriano or Hoeing down, DFA Nance and Jorge Lopez, and use the 3rd with the extra september roster spot. Then DFA any of the trash (wendle) on the hitter side and add the extra OF and Edwards with the 2nd added spot.

For September they can roll out

C- Trash
1b- Bell
2b- Arraez
SS- Berti
3b- Burger
LF- Grichuk/Renfroe
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Soler
Bench-Edwards, Hampson, Gurriel, Backup C trash, DLC

Sp- Sandy/Luzardo/Giolito/Garrett/Eury
RP- Robertson/Reynaldo Lopez/Matt Moore/Puk/Okert/Nardi/Scott/Chargois/Hoeing or Soriano

Will it ultimately matter considering how bad their free fall has been? Probably not, but we are the worst "contender" left and we will essentially have dibs on each one of these guys if we want them and bruce is willing to spend the money. I dont see anyone with a worse record than us grabbing any of those guys outside of maybe the padres, but they are 9 under and 7.5 games back in the wild card. Might as well at least try. If the cost is just money and getting rid of Lopez and wendle and cueto why not?

[lou]

you're overthinking it. Bader is a free agent. He has been flat out bad now for 2 full years. They wont give Jazz or Arraez an extension, in what world are they giving a waiver claim an extension? The bigger need is Giolito and Lopez, maybe if they want to get Renfroe or Grichuk for the last month and send DLC down if he has options, that works for me too, but they arent signing any of these guys to an extension. It's purely to take on salary for a month to hopefully get a little more production and then all of those guys are testing free agency anyways. I think Bader's reputation far outweighs his actual production for most of his career for whatever reason. He's a career 93 WRC+. He's a good defensive 5th and maybe 4th OF. He's not a starter though with his offensive production. He doesnt have a ton of power, he doesnt get on base very well, he doesnt walk. Look at his baseball savant, he is a phenomenal defender but he cant hit at all.

Id go after Grichuk or Renfroe and try to get more offensive production. That's what this lineup really needs at this point. Giolito, Lopez, and Renfroe/Grichuk and send down/dump Lopez, Hoeing, and then we have the expanded rosters to take on the outfielder. Worth it for a month to see if they can climb back in it. Realistically though, this team is done.

Your last sentence is what matters. This team is done. If they are going to take on any of these guys, it should be with an eye for next year IMO and get them in the building to sell them on the progress so hopefully they never leave. That being said, they would also help this year if lightning strikes.

Bader has a 2.7 WAR his last 600 PA with a .285 BABIP, below his career average. Bader has also been hurt during this time. He is a 3.7 WAR per 600 PA player for his career over 2,000 PA. He's 29. You would shit yourself if Burger dropped a 2.7 WAR or more for this team next year. He is literally exactly what they need as a plus OF defender who can play against all lefties and take his off days against right handers. He's a perfect 110-120 game starter with a career .842 OPS vs LHP and a respectable .675 OPS vs RHP with that phenomenal defense. The Marlins OF would be beyond awesome with a base Jazz - Bader - Sanchez each starting 110-120 games, and you can genuinely see Edwards (80+) and Soler (50+ versus predominantly lefties) picking up the rest with Dane, Johnston, and Burdick the AAA callups. DLC is expendable here as stated and they could probably get another "Amaya" level guy for him which frankly makes sense if they go big for an OF. A more offensive SS may make sense since Amaya may be a defender first. Maybe Bader is cooked though and it's not just the injuries. Hard to say as he is young and smoking lefties overall. Getting a player into your building to start a sales pitch may be beneficial longterm. That's all I am saying here. I like Grichuk also who I said they should trade for in May if you recall. He too makes a lot of sense for next year to begin a FA pitch, but he's certainly more of a budget option for a 1 year deal. Bader is one of the few legit CF in baseball. And all of a sudden, the Marlins would have two of them and literal elite OF defense as Sanchez is no slouch despite the down stats this year. I think he'd be fine. Maybe even Jazz moves to RF and Sanchez LF here as the base lineup.

[lou]

nightengale says we are expected to put claims on the angels relievers. no word on who but id imagine it's lopez and probably matt moore. Id put Giolito and renfroe/Grichuk on their as well.

Send soriano or Hoeing down, DFA Nance and Jorge Lopez, and use the 3rd with the extra september roster spot. Then DFA any of the trash (wendle) on the hitter side and add the extra OF and Edwards with the 2nd added spot.

For September they can roll out

C- Trash
1b- Bell
2b- Arraez
SS- Berti
3b- Burger
LF- Grichuk/Renfroe
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Soler
Bench-Edwards, Hampson, Gurriel, Backup C trash, DLC

Sp- Sandy/Luzardo/Giolito/Garrett/Eury
RP- Robertson/Reynaldo Lopez/Matt Moore/Puk/Okert/Nardi/Scott/Chargois/Hoeing or Soriano

Will it ultimately matter considering how bad their free fall has been? Probably not, but we are the worst "contender" left and we will essentially have dibs on each one of these guys if we want them and bruce is willing to spend the money. I dont see anyone with a worse record than us grabbing any of those guys outside of maybe the padres, but they are 9 under and 7.5 games back in the wild card. Might as well at least try. If the cost is just money and getting rid of Lopez and wendle and cueto why not?

Padres have luxury tax implications, they aren't taking on money more than likely.

I'm fine with doing whatever as this is just money at this point and it's not my money. But I do think they should target guys they want to keep, as that makes sense to get them in the building and sell them on the future. Like Bader. I am telling you, if they think he can hit .650 vs RHP and stays a lefty masher, he is one of the best players in baseball to match with Jazz and Sanchez. If we think his hit tool evaporates, then yes he's a premium 4th OF to play against lefties and spot duty only. Which to be frank still is a player the Marlins need and makes sense to get if cheap.

[fish16]

Padres have luxury tax implications, they aren't taking on money more than likely.

I'm fine with doing whatever as this is just money at this point and it's not my money. But I do think they should target guys they want to keep, as that makes sense to get them in the building and sell them on the future. Like Bader. I am telling you, if they think he can hit .650 vs RHP and stays a lefty masher, he is one of the best players in baseball to match with Jazz and Sanchez. If we think his hit tool evaporates, then yes he's a premium 4th OF to play against lefties and spot duty only. Which to be frank still is a player the Marlins need and makes sense to get if cheap.

if they get say Giolito, Moore, Lopez, and one of the outfielders, what salary is that taking on for 1 month? Can't be that much.

[lou]

if they get say Giolito, Moore, Lopez, and one of the outfielders, what salary is that taking on for 1 month? Can't be that much.

Renfroe $2m
Giolito $1.7m
Renfroe $1.7m
Moore $1.25m
Lopez $604k
=$7.2m

I believe these guys cost 195% of those sums to the Padres as a third time luxury payer to note. Meaning I don't think a non-playoff Padres just want to burn money for 1 month of these guys.

Angels shave 120% of each of those guys in first time luxury offender. So they can save $10m bucks effectively moving them for nothing. And why not. $10m is something.

They cost the Marlins those exact numbers above, give or take a few thousand based on day of claim processing.

[lou]

Bader costs $866k ROS BTW

[lou]

$3m bucks effectively for Giolito, Bader, and Lopez. That is super fun.

[fish16]

$3m bucks effectively for Giolito, Bader, and Lopez. That is super fun.

Might as well get Matt Moore too. Somehow we are still only 2 games out if we win today. Might as well say fuck it and go for it. We wasted enough time rooting for this team all year, might as well try to make it worth the time. I think the waiver claims process last 48 hours, so we will know tomorrow. I don’t see how they don’t claim at least giolito, Lopez, and Moore. We will see on one of the outfielders. I could see clevinger instead of giolito too and I would be cool with that

[Nick]

Watching this team is pure pain.

[fish16]

If we do end up getting Matt Moore and Lopez they should make nardi the closer for the last month of the year. Guy has been unreal all year, especially with runners on

[Namaste]

The Rays have 1 hit and every time I’ve looked at Yahoo sports on my phone the Rays are up and have a runner on

[fish16]

So Shawn Armstrong gave up 10 runs in 6.2 innings with us last year and now this year he has given up 4 runs in 39 innings? Of course