2023 Game Thread

[lou]

When was the last time other than Soler where the marlins spent big in free agency? This is a horrible hitting free agency class outside of ohtani who we are obviously not players for.

Hoskins coming off an acl and probably wont be let go by the phillies. Competing with the dodgers and the rest of baseball for Muncy. Justin Turner didnt want to sign here last offseason. Teoscar hernandez has a sub .700 OPS this year, isnt a first baseman, and is a terrible defensive player. Michael Conforto has been hurt or mediocre for 3 years. Joc Pederson is a platoon guy and a terrible fit along sanchez. Soler we already have, so that doesnt replace Bell.

None of those guys are good fits, want to be here, or worth the money they will get. Losing bell would be a big blow. We have no 1b ready to replace him any time soon. We desperately need him to opt in or at the very least opt out and then re-sign here for 2 years.

A lot going on here, I don't know why you get so amped up over literally nothings. But importantly, Arraez probably has to move to 1B so we're talking about a primary DH here. Soler is opting out for next year absent a major injury so the Marlins "don't already have" him so I don't know what that means. That rough list of guys are all going to be competing for the same predominantly DH spots (and you don't know if any of them want to be here, my guess is money talks and the Marlins are a contender now). Just because Bell has been awesome for 10 games doesn't mean he is far and away better than everyone here value wise. This is a small sample size, don't get overwhelmed by it. We can easily add Bell to your list of what's wrong with all of these guys and point out Cleveland and San Diego stints where he was objectively bad. He's a great addition so far, but ultimately, they will be fine with out without him as that payroll can be used elsewhere easily. Which could just be SP and they move two SP for bats, etc.

And if you don't believe me, this costs roughly $70m. They are spending over $100m this year with the deadline adds so chances are, they are going to approve the same payroll since the team is you know, pretty good now and only a few players away from a step forward on top of what is already happening.

C ____, Fortes
1B Arraez
2B Edwards
SS _____, Amaya
3B Burger, Berti
LF DLC
CF Jazz, ____
RF Sanchez
13th bat - Garcia/Myers/Burdick/Johnston

Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
_____, Lopez, Chargois
Scott, Puk, Nardi, Okert
(AAA/AA - Weathers, Meyer, Monteverde, Fulton, Brazoban, Bender, Soriano, Maldonado)

So effectively they will have $30+m to spend on 4 guys, or $14m+ to spend on 3 guys if Bell opts in (where the last guy would definitely be an internal CC guy to keep payroll down. They have many bat options here like Myers and Johnston, as well as the fleet of arms).

To mention, Rogers and Lopez would lower this payroll by $5m combined, and Okert another $2m, so if they trade Rogers and Okert in a package for a club controlled SS (maybe Joey Ortiz as Nick originally mentioned and I am on board with, etc.), all of a sudden that changes this dynamic with Bell to $20m to spend on on a catcher and 3 arms or $36m(!) to spend on 5 guys, two bats and three arms. And this team is really good at finding cheap bullpen arms so that money could go a long ways. And then what if Bruce says $115m as he should?

This is fine. Bell opting out isn't a big blow. They cleared off Segura and are going on a contending run and didn't mess with next year. It was a smart move.

[rmc523]

It doesn't matter, getting a home series would be a huge deal, but other than that, either way the winner is going to have to play Dodgers or Braves in the next round it's going to be a fucking tough task.

Yeah, unfortunately we probably won't make it too far given the Braves and/or Dodgers (the same applies for most teams), but it'd be fun to have a home playoff series, and just plain playoffs period. Crazy things do happen, though.

[lou]

Ideally, in the likely scenario where Soler opts out, we move Arraez to 1b, Bell becomes the DH masher, Edwards plays 2b full time, and we sign/trade for a C, SS, and also a corner OF (more of a luxury).

Didn't see this before typing the above, but yes this is what is going to happen and replace Bell with a FA basher (which could be Soler resigning) if he opts out.

Rogers/Okert become Joey Ortiz, they have to find a catcher somewhere for cheap but maybe Toronto has payroll issues and they can get Jansen for an acceptable package even if an overpay, and 100% maybe Bruce lets them sign that real luxury upgrade like Bellinger or Bader which would be the WERTH move for me.

[lou]

I think you have to retain 1 of either Soler or Bell. And whoever they do retain should be the DH next year.

Sure, but this also can be Conforto, or Hoskins, or they get Santander in an Orioles deal, or spend biggish on Bellinger, etc. They have money and trade assets. This is going to be fine.

I do think he just opts-in though so our focus is on a young SS, an innings eater #5 SP to bridge to Meyer/Weaters/Monteverde/Fulton while Eury/Cabrera still have lower innings inventory, some kind of catcher, and then seeing a wide assortment of crafty Chargois, Barnes, and Amaya type deals to fill out the rest of the spots.

[fish16]

A lot going on here, I don't know why you get so amped up over literally nothings. But importantly, Arraez probably has to move to 1B so we're talking about a primary DH here. Soler is opting out for next year absent a major injury so the Marlins "don't already have" him so I don't know what that means. That rough list of guys are all going to be competing for the same predominantly DH spots (and you don't know if any of them want to be here, my guess is money talks and the Marlins are a contender now). Just because Bell has been awesome for 10 games doesn't mean he is far and away better than everyone here value wise. This is a small sample size, don't get overwhelmed by it. We can easily add Bell to your list of what's wrong with all of these guys and point out Cleveland and San Diego stints where he was objectively bad. He's a great addition so far, but ultimately, they will be fine with out without him as that payroll can be used elsewhere easily. Which could just be SP and they move two SP for bats, etc.

And if you don't believe me, this costs roughly $70m. They are spending over $100m this year with the deadline adds so chances are, they are going to approve the same payroll since the team is you know, pretty good now and only a few players away from a step forward on top of what is already happening.

C ____, Fortes
1B Arraez
2B Edwards
SS _____, Amaya
3B Burger, Berti
LF DLC
CF Jazz, ____
RF Sanchez
13th bat - Garcia/Myers/Burdick/Johnston

Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
_____, Lopez, Chargois
Scott, Puk, Nardi, Okert
(AAA/AA - Weathers, Meyer, Monteverde, Fulton, Brazoban, Bender, Soriano, Maldonado)

So effectively they will have $30+m to spend on 4 guys, or $14m+ to spend on 3 guys if Bell opts in (where the last guy would definitely be an internal CC guy to keep payroll down. They have many bat options here like Myers and Johnston, as well as the fleet of arms).

To mention, Rogers and Lopez would lower this payroll by $5m combined, and Okert another $2m, so if they trade Rogers and Okert in a package for a club controlled SS (maybe Joey Ortiz as Nick originally mentioned and I am on board with, etc.), all of a sudden that changes this dynamic with Bell to $20m to spend on on a catcher and 3 arms or $36m(!) to spend on 5 guys, two bats and three arms. And this team is really good at finding cheap bullpen arms so that money could go a long ways. And then what if Bruce says $115m as he should?

This is fine. Bell opting out isn't a big blow. They cleared off Segura and are going on a contending run and didn't mess with next year. It was a smart move.

The marlins do have soler currently. it's about getting better for next year. If the offseason moves are bell replacing Soler at DH, arraez to 1b, and Edwards to 2b, the team has gotten worse. If they lose both bell and soler, that team is significantly worse.

Bell hasnt been awesome for 10 games, he's been awesome for the vast majority of his career. He is a career .800 OPS and 115 WRC+. He is an awesome hitter. Even as he had a pedestrian first half, his peripherals with baseball savant indicated a ton of bad luck. Josh Bell opting out and having to replace him and Soler on the open market would be an enormous blow with the free agent crop available this winter. It's not impossible to overcome, but acting like your 2 best sluggers by far are easily replaceable when we havent had a quality lineup in 6 years is pretty absurd.

That team you put on paper is an awful lineup both offensively and defensively. No one available on the open market this offseason that we would realistically be in contention for would make that a quality lineup. Bottom line is if bell opts out, it's an enormous step back for this lineup and the moves kim has made. It is of course likely a great thing for this year given that if he opts out, it probably means he went off in his 2 months here, but it does make us significantly worse for next year. Bell is a legitimate proven middle of the order bat that we desperately need to stay here.

None of the guys you mentioned would either sign here or be quality additions for the money they would command. Each have significant problems around their game.

[dgriot]

Castellanos has been a disaster for the Phillies.

Anecdotal, but it's funny that he's given a pass by Phillies fans. Having extended heaters during a playoff run + this June when the rest of the team was in a power slump went a long way to papering over his total output.

[lou]

The marlins do have soler currently. it's about getting better for next year. If the offseason moves are bell replacing Soler at DH, arraez to 1b, and Edwards to 2b, the team has gotten worse. If they lose both bell and soler, that team is significantly worse.

Bell hasnt been awesome for 10 games, he's been awesome for the vast majority of his career. He is a career .800 OPS and 115 WRC+. He is an awesome hitter. Even as he had a pedestrian first half, his peripherals with baseball savant indicated a ton of bad luck. Josh Bell opting out and having to replace him and Soler on the open market would be an enormous blow with the free agent crop available this winter. It's not impossible to overcome, but acting like your 2 best sluggers by far are easily replaceable when we havent had a quality lineup in 6 years is pretty absurd.

That team you put on paper is an awful lineup both offensively and defensively. No one available on the open market this offseason that we would realistically be in contention for would make that a quality lineup. Bottom line is if bell opts out, it's an enormous step back for this lineup and the moves kim has made. It is of course likely a great thing for this year given that if he opts out, it probably means he went off in his 2 months here, but it does make us significantly worse for next year. Bell is a legitimate proven middle of the order bat that we desperately need to stay here.

None of the guys you mentioned would either sign here or be quality additions for the money they would command. Each have significant problems around their game.

You didn't get it but it's fine.

TLDR - they will have enough money if they relatively match 2023 opening day payroll and have potentially at least one major resource in an arm to trade to figure all of this out so you shouldn't be concerned with whatever Bell does. They are in great longterm shape with their internal 20-22 guys coming back, and would be in unbelievable shape if Bruce gives them $120m opening day which effectively gets them that luxury OF you mentioned which I 100% agree with they should do. The Werth deal.

[lou]

Anecdotal, but it's funny that he's given a pass by Phillies fans. Having extended heaters during a playoff run + this June when the rest of the team was in a power slump went a long way to papering over his total output.

Winning cures all too! I think we all know what PHILLY fans are going to do to him and Turner (extremely fun gestures from them though) if they start scuffling.

[sports24/7]

I said he was at worst a wash with Cooper when we got him. I think you may be referring to Lee Stone though.

The latter is correct.

[rmc523]

We signed Jorge Alfaro to a minor league deal haha.

[lou]

We signed Jorge Alfaro to a minor league deal haha.

TBH I love it. He was a 1.2 WAR player over 600 PA in 2021/2022 and has a .188 BABIP this season in the majors (career .366 BABIP - he's an insane BABIP guy with how hard he hits the ball when he does hit it. Historically anyways). His AAA slash is effectively .325/.370/.530 which is what you'd expect Alfaro to do against AAA pitching (22% K rate also). He's probably normal Alfaro and would immediately be a high .600 OPS hitter with acceptable enough defense. To mention, Stallings is rocking a -1.1 WAR in 560 PA for the Marlins and Fortes doesn't have a .600 OPS.

The bar is low here to maybe replace Stallings or Fortes outright in a few weeks and likely a better 3rd catcher option if either gets hurt. This is a good move understanding what we're talking about here that this is the lowest of expectations. Still might be an upgrade. I think I'll take a random Alfaro dinger once a week over current Stallings.

[fish16]

You didn't get it but it's fine.

TLDR - they will have enough money if they relatively match 2023 opening day payroll and have potentially at least one major resource in an arm to trade to figure all of this out so you shouldn't be concerned with whatever Bell does. They are in great longterm shape with their internal 20-22 guys coming back, and would be in unbelievable shape if Bruce gives them $120m opening day which effectively gets them that luxury OF you mentioned which I 100% agree with they should do. The Werth deal.

I did get it, you’re doing that thing where if someone thinks what you’re a saying is nonsense that they can’t possibly get your intellectual saavy or don’t get what you’re saying. Yes, they will have money to spend obviously. No shit. It is a dog shit free agent class for hitters and hitters flat out do not want to sign here for a multitude of reasons. Justin turner didn’t want to sign here literally last offseason and took less money to go to boston. That wasn’t even 7 months ago. All of the guys you named are hugely flawed, and you would be competing with 29 other teams to sign them.

you do this every offseason. We aren’t a free agent destination, especially for hitters. Losing bell on top of us likely losing soler is an enormous blow to this lineup next year.


do you think Kim has been terrible at signing free agents for the most part because she is just incompetent or because she is dealing with a much more limited group of potential free agents that would even sign here because of ownership and this ballpark?


just look at the names we actually have been able to sign. Garcia coming off a career year. Segura coming off a bad year. Soler coming off a great stretch run but a terrible beginning of his year in Kansas City. John buck. Salty. Michael Morse. No. Top. Hitters. Want. To. Sign. Here. It’s been 12 years of this in this ballpark. Take the hint. Losing bell would be a massive blow because replacing him in free agency is not nearly as easy as you make it out to be

[Namaste]

TBH I love it. He was a 1.2 WAR player over 600 PA in 2021/2022 and has a .188 BABIP this season in the majors (career .366 BABIP - he's an insane BABIP guy with how hard he hits the ball when he does hit it. Historically anyways). His AAA slash is effectively .325/.370/.530 which is what you'd expect Alfaro to do against AAA pitching (22% K rate also). He's probably normal Alfaro and would immediately be a high .600 OPS hitter with acceptable enough defense. To mention, Stallings is rocking a -1.1 WAR in 560 PA for the Marlins and Fortes doesn't have a .600 OPS.

The bar is low here to maybe replace Stallings or Fortes outright in a few weeks and likely a better 3rd catcher option if either gets hurt. This is a good move understanding what we're talking about here that this is the lowest of expectations. Still might be an upgrade. I think I'll take a random Alfaro dinger once a week over current Stallings.

I didn’t realize how low his BABIP was this season in the majors but have we forgotten just how bad this guy is at catching baseballs or will the improved bat overshadow this?

[Todd]

Is the bat improved? His last significant time in MLB with the Padres last season Alfaro had a .364 BABIP yet hit .246/.285/.383 in ~250 ABs while striking out in 36% of ABs. And he was playing horrific defense.

I think this is just wishful thinking and selective memory from people just wanting something from the Realmuto trade to actually be good and fruitful.

[fish16]

Alfaro is fucking awful. If they want to add a catcher, go sign Carson Kelly when he becomes a free agent