2023 Game Thread

[lou]

As good as Bednar is, I'd be terrified to give up anything significant for a RP, let alone that package. Those guys just drop off of a cliff too easily. I'd have Heath Bell nightmares. That haul is more than the Padres gave up for Josh Hader, though.

I agree. Moving Bednar right now is apex value with them. It's kind of like how the Marlins should move Scott, but are they contending? Or can they replace him?

[lou]

Rosenthal in his latest article confirms marlins interest in Lynn. Played in St. Louis with skip and Jon jay. Can’t imagine he will cost much with his contract and struggles and might be a really nice addition given his solid peripherals. I like it. Can probably nab him without giving up a top 10-15 guy. Leaves Eder for a bigger deal

Lynn wouldn't cost much, two FV40s and not the higher up ones.

I'd try and get Bummer also (xFIP 3.20, signed next year for $5.5m) and then cash in Scott at his peak for something else. He's a top 10 RP in baseball right now and as a fringe contender (see August schedule), this would be a good roll of the dice to me to bet on the White Sox guys and try and sell Scott at an absolute peak. I bet they'd get something amazing for him and this is a good buy + sell combo.

Also sell it big for Edman and move Wendle in another buy/sell move. Something like this


Lynn/Bummer -- > A few FV40 guys

Edman/Gallegos -- > Rogers, Fulton/Monteverde, Fitterer, Millbrandt, another good arm throw in

Candelario --- > Vargas, Sanoja/Peguero/Gerardo, I. Lewis (or whatever FV40 guys they like after Vargas). I am thinking three super high upside rolls of the dice, but maybe they want something else. Who cares. Load them up with upside and resign Candelario.

FV45, FV40 --- > Scott
and
FV40, FV40 ---> Wendle --- > This recoups entire Candelario and White Sox trades effectively which is the idea, and also pays for two of the 5 guys you traded for to help $$$



They'd be at this - pretty good right? This probably adds $13 million to 2023.

Fortes, Stallings
Arraez, Cooper
Segura
Edman, Berti
Candelario
DLC
Jazz, Myers
Sanchez, Soler

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Lynn, Cueto
Luzardo, Garrett
Gallegos, Chargois
Puk, Okert, Bummer
Last arm - Nardi/Brazoban
DL/AAA - Nardi or Brazoban, or kick Cueto to the curb if he falls apart



If they resign Candelario for say $18m a year, and trade Okert in the offseason, this team is effectively $100m in 2024. So call it $103m with 3 more club controlled guys.

______, Fortes
Arraez
Segura
Edman, Amaya
Candelario, Berti
DLC, Myers
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, ______
Luzardo, Garrett
Gallegos, _____, Chargois, Brazoban (Reynolds, Soriano, Maldonado)
Puk, Bummer, Nardi (Fulton/Monteverde)

Banfield, Eder, and Meyer would be the internal blank lines if everyone is healthy, so effectively this is dipping into Cappe/Watson and other arms (Okert!) and using that to find a catcher from anywhere. Bonus points if they sign a platoon stick (Duvall type for 1 year?) for literally anywhere and send Amaya to AAA.



So yea, I'm into the White Sox but I'd like to see a plan here of something like this as they'd need a bunch more. Structure it all for next year as most of us say, etc.

[fish16]

the idea of trading scott, who is under control for next year as well, simply because you have a hard august schedule and might not make the playoffs, is one of the biggest loser mentalities you could possibly have. Oh no, they might not make the playoffs anyways, lets actively make the team worse for more fucking prospects in their best year in 20 years. Such a loser move you're advocating for. at a certain point, you go for it. It's july 25th. We are 7 games over, tied for the 2nd wild card and half a game behind the first wild card spot. To trade any pieces on this team for prospects because of a hard schedule and the fact that you might not make the playoffs is just such a loser move. especially considering the current state of our bullpen.

I'm all for dumping other salary like Wendle and Cooper though if that is what it takes to take on other money to make additions to other parts of the team. I think Candelario is the perfect addition to improve the offense over cooper and the defense with Segura moving to 2b and Arraez to 1b. Get me Candelario, Yan Gomes, and Carlson. That's about the best they can do to improve the lineup. That's a tremendous trade deadline as far as the lineup is concerned.

[fish16]

i do think they get lance lynn though, and i think that is where the report of bruce taking on money is coming from. Like i said a week ago, he is not taking on long term money. this whole idea of him taking on money is exactly for guys like lynn. it's guys they can spend money on for the rest of this year and not take on long term salary. he's a sad excuse for an owner and the fact that he wont spend long term money on even re-signing his own players is pathetic and he doesnt deserve to own a team, but i can get behind that move. he's been a really good pitcher for 4+ years and his peripherals indicate bad luck. Im all for that move to bolster the rotation depth.

He has a ton of postseason and playoff run experience as well. He hasnt had great results, but he at least has been there. 8 career post season starts and 57 career playoff innings.

[Namaste]

I like Lance Lynn. If I remember correctly he pitched very well in the WBC. But if Lance Lynn is the big deadline splash, we won’t be playing in a Wild Card Series.

[fish16]

I like Lance Lynn. If I remember correctly he pitched very well in the WBC. But if Lance Lynn is the big deadline splash, we won’t be playing in a Wild Card Series.

agreed. I think the moves at the deadline need to be viewed in totality though. If Lynn is just a rotation depth piece they can get for cheap and is really just bruce taking on money, it's a good move if it is combined with 2 lineup moves and 2 bullpen pieces added. If it is the biggest move, it's an issue.

Kim has never shown an ability to really do a bunch of things at once at the deadline, but she has also never been in this position to buy. This next week might be the defining moment of her career here. She can half ass it and miss the playoffs, or find a way to add critical pieces for not a ton of prospect capital. Candelario and Gomes would be big additions that wouldnt cost much at all. bullpen arms shouldnt cost a ton if they are middle reliever types. So there are ways to add where you dont completely sacrifice the future but also go all in for this year. I hope she nails this next week because if she does this will be one of the most fun 2 month stretches in marlins baseball in 20 years outside of the fluke pandemic year.

[lou]

the idea of trading scott, who is under control for next year as well, simply because you have a hard august schedule and might not make the playoffs, is one of the biggest loser mentalities you could possibly have. Oh no, they might not make the playoffs anyways, lets actively make the team worse for more fucking prospects in their best year in 20 years. Such a loser move you're advocating for. at a certain point, you go for it. It's july 25th. We are 7 games over, tied for the 2nd wild card and half a game behind the first wild card spot. To trade any pieces on this team for prospects because of a hard schedule and the fact that you might not make the playoffs is just such a loser move. especially considering the current state of our bullpen.

I'm all for dumping other salary like Wendle and Cooper though if that is what it takes to take on other money to make additions to other parts of the team. I think Candelario is the perfect addition to improve the offense over cooper and the defense with Segura moving to 2b and Arraez to 1b. Get me Candelario, Yan Gomes, and Carlson. That's about the best they can do to improve the lineup. That's a tremendous trade deadline as far as the lineup is concerned.

You're going to have a very hard time convincing anyone the team has a loser mentality if they were to immediately acquire Lynn, Bummer, Edman, Gallegos, and Candelario, who are not prospects, even if Rogers, Scott, Wendle, and minor leaguers are shipped out in corresponding moves to help pay for all of that with getting some more prospects or easing up some money. We could only be so lucky if they did try and really go for it in a respectful way of not leveraging the future while still improving. I'd like to note everyone didn't like Scott April 1st, relievers are volatile, so if you get other quality RP like Gallegos and Bummer, it makes a lot of sense as they still have sufficient numbers. Gallegos and Bummer are good and controlled next year. But to each their own. I forgot Floro above too. We'd all be very happy with this:

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Lynn
Luzardo, Garrett
Gallegos, Floro, Chargois
Puk, Okert, Bummer
Last arm - Nardi/Brazoban/Cueto

And in 2024, Eder replaces Lynn, Nardi replaces Okert (traded), and some collection of Meyer, Bender, Brazoban, Reynolds, Soriano, and Maldonado replace Floro and effectively Cueto


Sign me up. They can probably do it for Rogers, Scott, Wendle, call it two top 8-15 level prospects (Fulton, Vargas sort of thing), and a fewFV40 guys we do not care about, and get two impact bats in the process.

[lou]

agreed. I think the moves at the deadline need to be viewed in totality though. If Lynn is just a rotation depth piece they can get for cheap and is really just bruce taking on money, it's a good move if it is combined with 2 lineup moves and 2 bullpen pieces added. If it is the biggest move, it's an issue.

Kim has never shown an ability to really do a bunch of things at once at the deadline, but she has also never been in this position to buy. This next week might be the defining moment of her career here. She can half ass it and miss the playoffs, or find a way to add critical pieces for not a ton of prospect capital. Candelario and Gomes would be big additions that wouldnt cost much at all. bullpen arms shouldnt cost a ton if they are middle reliever types. So there are ways to add where you dont completely sacrifice the future but also go all in for this year. I hope she nails this next week because if she does this will be one of the most fun 2 month stretches in marlins baseball in 20 years outside of the fluke pandemic year.

I'm with you. Maybe not defining, but it's a big one. Let's see some VISION with whatever direction they go. My ideas are all a this and next year thing you know for the later bold. She's gotta give value to get value and it's time for her to step up and close some deals, and Bruce to give her some runway.

[rmc523]

Well, you could look at it as is being very lucky that every single other team in the wild card race fell apart right when we did, or you could look at it as a major blown opportunity to create some space. Regardless, we’re now tied for 2nd wild card, .5 behind the reds for first. Each team has flaws. Reds have 0 starting pitching. Diamondbacks have no pitching depth. Giants to me just aren’t super talented and have a mediocre lineup. We have no bullpen, a mediocre lineup, and limited pitching depth. Phillies to me are the best of the bunch but have a ton of struggling talent. I think they ultimately pull off the first wild card spot

It can be both. Missed opportunity, and lucky that they lost when we decided to forget how to play so that we've stayed in it.

[fish16]

You're going to have a very hard time convincing anyone the team has a loser mentality if they were to immediately acquire Lynn, Bummer, Edman, Gallegos, and Candelario, who are not prospects, even if Rogers, Scott, Wendle, and minor leaguers are shipped out in corresponding moves to help pay for all of that with getting some more prospects or easing up some money. We could only be so lucky if they did try and really go for it in a respectful way of not leveraging the future while still improving. I'd like to note everyone didn't like Scott April 1st, relievers are volatile, so if you get other quality RP like Gallegos and Bummer, it makes a lot of sense as they still have sufficient numbers. Gallegos and Bummer are good and controlled next year. But to each their own. I forgot Floro above too. We'd all be very happy with this:

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Lynn
Luzardo, Garrett
Gallegos, Floro, Chargois
Puk, Okert, Bummer
Last arm - Nardi/Brazoban/Cueto

And in 2024, Eder replaces Lynn, Nardi replaces Okert (traded), and some collection of Meyer, Bender, Brazoban, Reynolds, Soriano, and Maldonado replace Floro and effectively Cueto


Sign me up. They can probably do it for Rogers, Scott, Wendle, call it two top 8-15 level prospects (Fulton, Vargas sort of thing), and a fewFV40 guys we do not care about, and get two impact bats in the process.

You yourself admitted he has been a top 10 reliever in baseball this year. It makes no sense to add those guys and then further subtract from the biggest weakness on the team. I get the idea of selling high, but he is under contract for next year. At a certain point, you go all in for this year to an extent. If he was a free agent to be, sure, you can make an argument. But at this point, we are 7 over, essentially tied for the wild card. Just fucking go for it. Dont get cute. Obviously you dont get desperate and make stupid moves to sell the farm, but it's been 20 fucking years since a legitimate playoff berth. You cant sell off your best reliever, and they arent even discussing subtracting from the major league team according to mish so it's a moot point.

We will theoretically be just as good if not better next year with the innings limits off or increased for a lot of guys, so it's not like it's this year or bust. You can both add for this year and have an eye towards competing next year. Scott helps this year and next. Maybe he blows up again, but who cares, take the risk. You have to try to win at some point. It cant always be trying to get mid level prospects for 2 years from now when you have an opportunity to make a run.

The two mid tier prospects arent making a difference most likely. Go for it. Also, Eder will be going at the deadline if they make a significant move. That is one of their biggest pieces to trade. If they get an Edman/Gallegos combo or one of their Starters, Eder will be gone. Meyer would be the replacement guy next year. I think they should hold onto him until he comes back.

I'm absolutely fine with dealing Cooper, Floro, and Wendle to offset salary and Rogers if someone still finds some value in Rogers. those should be the only pieces going from the current roster.

[lou]

You yourself admitted he has been a top 10 reliever in baseball this year. It makes no sense to add those guys and then further subtract from the biggest weakness on the team. I get the idea of selling high, but he is under contract for next year. At a certain point, you go all in for this year to an extent. If he was a free agent to be, sure, you can make an argument. But at this point, we are 7 over, essentially tied for the wild card. Just fucking go for it. Dont get cute. Obviously you dont get desperate and make stupid moves to sell the farm, but it's been 20 fucking years since a legitimate playoff berth. You cant sell off your best reliever, and they arent even discussing subtracting from the major league team according to mish so it's a moot point.

We will theoretically be just as good if not better next year with the innings limits off or increased for a lot of guys, so it's not like it's this year or bust. You can both add for this year and have an eye towards competing next year. Scott helps this year and next. Maybe he blows up again, but who cares, take the risk. You have to try to win at some point. It cant always be trying to get mid level prospects for 2 years from now when you have an opportunity to make a run.

The two mid tier prospects arent making a difference most likely. Go for it. Also, Eder will be going at the deadline if they make a significant move. That is one of their biggest pieces to trade. If they get an Edman/Gallegos combo or one of their Starters, Eder will be gone. Meyer would be the replacement guy next year. I think they should hold onto him until he comes back.

I'm absolutely fine with dealing Cooper, Floro, and Wendle to offset salary and Rogers if someone still finds some value in Rogers. those should be the only pieces going from the current roster.

The biggest weakness on this team is the hitting and not the bullpen. And it's not close. The bullpen is 10th in production, and if they were to replace Scott with Gallegos and Bummer, they'd move to 11th for perspective. This is not a not trying to win suggestion. It is a having your cake and eating it too suggestion, and they may have that ability if they are willing to pay up for a Cards and White Sox package. They need radical position player upgrades and innings and no stone should go unturned.

Practically, I do think we all agree they should just trade a lot of stuff to the Cardinals and Bruce put on the big boy pants and go to $120m payroll for 3 years (which would move then from 22nd to 21st in payroll spending). That would solve all issues. Hopefully they do that. Getting something like Edman and Candelario+extension I think is a radical radical position player improvement short and longterm.

[fish16]

The biggest weakness on this team is the hitting and not the bullpen. And it's not close. The bullpen is 10th in production, and if they were to replace Scott with Gallegos and Bummer, they'd move to 11th for perspective. This is not a not trying to win suggestion. It is a having your cake and eating it too suggestion, and they may have that ability if they are willing to pay up for a Cards and White Sox package. They need radical position player upgrades and innings and no stone should go unturned.

Practically, I do think we all agree they should just trade a lot of stuff to the Cardinals and Bruce put on the big boy pants and go to $120m payroll for 3 years (which would move then from 22nd to 21st in payroll spending). That would solve all issues. Hopefully they do that. Getting something like Edman and Candelario+extension I think is a radical radical position player improvement short and longterm.

The bullpen right now is just as big if not a bigger issue than the hitting right now. both need improvement, but there is no move they are going to make to make this a top tier hitting group. They will not be outscoring teams like the braves regardless of the moves they make. When they get leads with the great rotation we have on paper, they need to hold them. Right now, they do not have a single reliable reliever outside of Scott. Puk im sure will get it back, but they need serious help in the bullpen. IF you want to rely on the likes of Chargois and Brazoban and Floro and Soriano, be my guest, but that is a recipe for disaster down the stretch.

It's not an either or proposition regardless. They can improve both, and they need to improve both. But our current bullpen is Puk, Scott, Okert, Chargois, Brazoban, Floro, Soriano. That is horrific, even with nardi back. They need 2, impact, right handed relievers, and they need them 2 weeks ago. Both are needs and must be addressed. Moving a top 10 reliever in baseball, your words, with a bullpen that is already that bad, is a great way to compound an already super weak spot in the team. I dont care about what they have done in the last 3 months, it is about projecting forward. That bullpen is a bottom 10 group in mlb, not a top 10. They desperately need reinforcements, 1 back end righty and 1 middle relief righty to replace Floro and take your pick of the other guy. Relying on Brazoban and his 4 walks per 9 and 4+ XFIP is a terrible idea. Soriano has a sub 2 ERA and a 4.81 XFIP. Floro is fucking awful and should be included in a deal to offset some salary. He has been flat out bad for months. Since May 12th, Floro has a 7.17 ERA, a .901 OPS against. Somehow he has a 2.82 XFIP in that time, but he is getting fucking shelled each and every time out. He's not getting unlucky.

They absolutely need to replace Soriano and Floro with quality back end/middle relief righties by the deadline. That doesnt mean they cant also improve the lineup as well. They need both, and they will get both.

[fish16]

we traded for a lefty reliever that the padres DFA'd Jose Castillo. Has barely pitched at the mlb level since a really good year in 2018. essentially just a waiver claim for more pitching depth. He replaces Jerar on the 40 man.

[fish16]

maybe lou can answer this, but is there a downside to not just opening up the 40 man spots before needing them for guys who will inevitably go on the 60 day il? Like is there some sort of negative to not having Garcia, Barnes, Sixto, etc on the 60 man and just having a bunch of unused 40 man spots for a while? it makes no difference, just wondering why they wait to do it until they need to make room for someone.

[lou]

maybe lou can answer this, but is there a downside to not just opening up the 40 man spots before needing them for guys who will inevitably go on the 60 day il? Like is there some sort of negative to not having Garcia, Barnes, Sixto, etc on the 60 man and just having a bunch of unused 40 man spots for a while? it makes no difference, just wondering why they wait to do it until they need to make room for someone.

Some thoughts:

1 - Because what happens when they come back and now you've promoted a guy to the 40 you never had to use, and have to expose him to waivers to remove when someone comes back healthy. I do think you want to minimize that as much as possible even with nothing AAAA players. Losing multiple Lindgrens impacts minor league depth - someone has to throw those innings in AAA and it's not like you can just conjure up multiple Smeltzers. Those guys are all signed in AAA right now preseason and the team needs those hundreds of innings. So there is some practical need in not exposing guys even if in the big picture, none of this batch of guys - we'll call them the Dunands (but what a great HR still!) - are needle movers at the MLB level. They still can't lose too many of them.

2 - Because while perhaps unlikely, once you're moved to the 60 day it is a hard 60 day and you're out minimum that long. Maybe some guys recover faster? I know Garcia is out longer, but I think there is a medical component to this and I bet some team doctors may give 4-6 week timetables and based on that, they may not be eligible at the initial onset of the injury for the 60 man. That may become apparent later in the process and hence, why put on down the road. I have seen guys moved to the 60 man after 60 days you know.

3 - Money, and this one is the rare non-Bruce dig as every team does this. I believe players make a little more on the 40 man and certain service time benefits kick in if called up and then down. So "Lindgren" costs you a few extra thousand/tens of thousand if he is just sitting on the 40 man versus just controlled in AAA. It does mean a little. A business shaving $100k a year on minor transaction practice like this is legitimate money that pays for an IFA free agent, so why not? Bruce jokes aside, no sense in burning this money unless there is a practical need at the MLB level. I think it is a minor consideration but is part of the equation. It's some combination of the 3 to me, with heavy emphasis on the first two.