2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

I get that you’re evaluating actual production but guess who’s Barrel % is 28.6, Hard Hit % is 64.3, Average Exit Velocity is 98.4 mph and xWOBA is .353?

Hint: fish16’s head will explode

Lol, is it the guy who almost took a routine line drive off his face yesterday? i hope he breaks out as predicted, it will go a long way towards filling the hole of production from what avisail garcia was expected to produce

Edit- oh you're talking about Stallings. give me a break with expected numbers for him. The guy is a horrific hitter. He struck out on 3 pitches twice yesterday and grounded into a double play the other time. He is a horrendous hitter, and he has been for his entire career, and he's been especially terrible each of the last 2 years. He's not even close or remotely competitive in his at bats. He shouldnt be a big league player. He might be a worse hitter than jeff mathis.

Im also not sure your numbers are correct. His hard hit % i see on fangraphs is 35.7%, which coincidentally is also his k%.

[Namaste]

……..

[fish16]

im looking at the same page. I think you're confusing his ground ball % which is 64.3%. They have his hard hit% at 35.7%.

Edit- oh, i see it now. I'm not sure why stat cast has it at 64.3% but his hard hit% on the other part of the page is 35.7%. I think stat cast might have a much lower threshold for what constitutes a hard hit ball.

[Namaste]

All of the #’s I posted for Stallings are correct but keep on hating him

[Namaste]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ja...ats?position=C

[fish16]

All of the #’s I posted for Stallings are correct but keep on hating him

again, there are 2 different hard hit #'s on there. What the fuck is to like? The guy is a horrendous hitter, and has been his entire career. Should i be thrilled about his .458 OPS this year, his .584 OPS last year, or his career OPS of .660 at age 32? He is a -.9 WAR since he got here. What the fuck is there to like? He's also grading negatively again defensively this year just like he did last year. What exactly does he bring to the team if he is one of the worst hitters in the league and apparently been a below average defender since he's been here? The only year he has been remotely passable over a representative sample size is 2 years ago when he had an OPS barely over .700. He's got a career slugging percentage of .343. If you want to go out there on the pro stallings bandwagon be my guest. Enjoy watching that dude put up some of the worst most uncompetitive at bats youve ever seen.

[fish16]

on a side note- luis arraez spray chart is absolutely ridiculous this early in the year. what an amazing hitter.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

Jorge soler has also been hitting the crap out of the ball when he makes contact. He still has just 1 hit on the year that wasnt for extra bases https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

[fish16]

there was an interesting thread on jazz's defense yesterday. obviously he has been all over the place, but he's been getting unbelievable jumps on the ball. he caught a ball on the run without having to dive yesterday that had a 25% chance of being caught off the bat. obviously there is a lot of room for improvement on certain things out there, but at the very least his athleticism clearly plays out there. I just hope he doesnt get hurt. Baseball savant has him at the 90th percentile on outfield jumps, so it appears he reads the ball pretty well out there at least. He just needs to figure out angles to balls. There's been a couple really bad misplays where he takes bad angles to certain balls and allows it to get to the wall when it could have been cut off if he took the right angle. He also needs to learn how to hit the fucking cut off man.

[lou]

again, there are 2 different hard hit #'s on there. What the fuck is to like? The guy is a horrendous hitter, and has been his entire career. Should i be thrilled about his .458 OPS this year, his .584 OPS last year, or his career OPS of .660 at age 32? He is a -.9 WAR since he got here. What the fuck is there to like? He's also grading negatively again defensively this year just like he did last year. What exactly does he bring to the team if he is one of the worst hitters in the league and apparently been a below average defender since he's been here? The only year he has been remotely passable over a representative sample size is 2 years ago when he had an OPS barely over .700. He's got a career slugging percentage of .343. If you want to go out there on the pro stallings bandwagon be my guest. Enjoy watching that dude put up some of the worst most uncompetitive at bats youve ever seen.

To be fair, the 15th best hitting catcher last year (min 100) had a .729 OPS, so if Stallings does hit a .660 OPS and plays above average defense, he is an averageish starter extremely quickly as he'll start scaling above the low-defense/similar offense crowd. Yes I know his defense appears to be regressing which is not good. But alternatively, he plays defense like 2019-2021, he becomes a top 10-15 catcher extremely quickly if he is hitting .660+ OPS.

It is all relative. Let's not knock the .660 OPS because frankly, that may be fine. Because defense counts. We'll just have to hope last year was the exception. And yes play Fortes more and see what happens with him.

[fish16]

To be fair, the 15th best hitting catcher last year (min 100) had a .729 OPS, so if Stallings does hit a .660 OPS and plays above average defense, he is an averageish starter extremely quickly as he'll start scaling above the low-defense/similar offense crowd. Yes I know his defense appears to be regressing which is not good. But alternatively, he plays defense like 2019-2021, he becomes a top 10-15 catcher extremely quickly if he is hitting .660+ OPS.

It is all relative. Let's not knock the .660 OPS because frankly, that may be fine. Because defense counts. We'll just have to hope last year was the exception. And yes play Fortes more and see what happens with him.

sure, but has he given you any indication based on any kind of performance in the last 2 years that tells you he will come anywhere close to ever hitting .660? He has looked completely lost for over a year at the plate. The number of strike outs on 3 pitches are absurd. His at bats are non competitive.

Also, the vast majority of his defensive value appeared to be pitch framing. I'm not sure how that regresses so horribly. Is it possible defensive numbers arent very reliable?

[lou]

sure, but has he given you any indication based on any kind of performance in the last 2 years that tells you he will come anywhere close to ever hitting .660? He has looked completely lost for over a year at the plate. The number of strike outs on 3 pitches are absurd. His at bats are non competitive.

Frankly half the Marlins offense is non-competitive so who knows. It's all a SSS. All these guys get another month, except Hampson and Sanchez as the don't have the track records to buy them the PA if there are replacements. But I do think Fortes should be starting minimum 60% of the games behind the plate right now as bet on that swing over Stallings defense IMO.

[fish16]

Frankly half the Marlins offense is non-competitive so who knows. It's all a SSS. All these guys get another month, except Hampson and Sanchez as the don't have the track records to buy them the PA if there are replacements. But I do think Fortes should be starting minimum 60% of the games behind the plate right now as bet on that swing over Stallings defense IMO.

its been 412 PA's since he's been here. Everything he is doing this year he did last year as well.

[sports24/7]

Jim Bowden had a very early trade deadline preview in the Athletic. Apparently the rumor is that Reynolds and the Pirates have agreed to terms and years, but the sticking point is an opt-out clause. So that ship may be sailing, although he did say he'd expect them to move him at the deadline if they can't get a deal done.

One thing that was really interesting was he said the Cardinals should shop all of their outfielders not named Walker. He mentioned the Marlins as a good fit as a trade partner with Cabrera, Rogers, and Garrett. I would absolutely be exploring a deal with them if I were Miami.

[fish16]

Jim Bowden had a very early trade deadline preview in the Athletic. Apparently the rumor is that Reynolds and the Pirates have agreed to terms and years, but the sticking point is an opt-out clause. So that ship may be sailing, although he did say he'd expect them to move him at the deadline if they can't get a deal done.

One thing that was really interesting was he said the Cardinals should shop all of their outfielders not named Walker. He mentioned the Marlins as a good fit as a trade partner with Cabrera, Rogers, and Garrett. I would absolutely be exploring a deal with them if I were Miami.

i think tyler o'neill for garrett later in the year makes a ton of sense. or maybe one of the other guys with a little more control. The marlins liked nootbar in the offseason reportedly, but i doubt they deal him. Probably looking at burleson or O'neill. O'neill make the most sense to me. Can be a stop gap for a few years, and because he only has 2 more years of control and he's coming off a down year plus their need for pitching, garrett and maybe one more minor piece might get it done. O'neill has legit power, so his bat would fit nicely right where garcia is in the lineup currently stinking it up. All of a sudden, you get him and if soler keeps this up and has one of his good years, you have a good mix of power and contact. Probably still a middle of the pack lineup, but with this starting pitching, especially next year with Eury, Meyer, Eder, and hopefully sixto added to this current mix, that might be all you need to be a contender.

If they can get o'neill and consider garcia a sunk cost and just move him to the bench, we could trot out:

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Berti/Wendle (need an upgrade obviously)
3b- Segura
LF- DLC
CF- Jazz
RF- O'neill
DH- Soler

Burleson and nootbar fit their mold a lot better as they are younger and have control and dont strike out as much, but you're looking at giving up Rogers or Cabrera, which i wouldnt do as of yet. O'neill as a stop gap for a few years would be a nice piece.

[lou]

i think tyler o'neill for garrett later in the year makes a ton of sense. or maybe one of the other guys with a little more control. The marlins liked nootbar in the offseason reportedly, but i doubt they deal him. Probably looking at burleson or O'neill. O'neill make the most sense to me. Can be a stop gap for a few years, and because he only has 2 more years of control and he's coming off a down year plus their need for pitching, garrett and maybe one more minor piece might get it done. O'neill has legit power, so his bat would fit nicely right where garcia is in the lineup currently stinking it up. All of a sudden, you get him and if soler keeps this up and has one of his good years, you have a good mix of power and contact. Probably still a middle of the pack lineup, but with this starting pitching, especially next year with Eury, Meyer, Eder, and hopefully sixto added to this current mix, that might be all you need to be a contender.

If they can get o'neill and consider garcia a sunk cost and just move him to the bench, we could trot out:

C- Fortes
1b- Cooper
2b- Arraez
SS- Berti/Wendle (need an upgrade obviously)
3b- Segura
LF- DLC
CF- Jazz
RF- O'neill
DH- Soler

Burleson and nootbar fit their mold a lot better as they are younger and have control and dont strike out as much, but you're looking at giving up Rogers or Cabrera, which i wouldnt do as of yet. O'neill as a stop gap for a few years would be a nice piece.

They are going to want much more than Garrett, unless O'Neill sucks. They think he is a "Rogers." They'd probably want Rogers (as a contender), and they'd kick in a 2nd half decent prospect to make up the service time gap.

I don't love it unless that second player is really really good. More control is needed. The Marlins were right IMO to be primarily looking at Nootbar.