2023 Game Thread

[lou]

There’s really no reason to have Garcia on the team anymore. The same could be said about Stallings, but at least there they have the excuse that they don’t have any decent catching in the system.

Yea, Garcia was showing in a very SSS right after he came back a .730ish expected OPS which would have played enough so I get trying him out a little (because of the $$$), but that has quickly cratered to .220/.280/.387. I'm not sure how they can keep this up in the middle of a race. Especially when combined with Wendle's expected OPS is now a robust .584, Yuli's expected OPS is.620, Fortes .630, and Stallings .563. This is 5 of the 13 bats at absolutely replacement level if that. Fortes is probably a solid backup as his LHP split is great and he can frame pitches a bit so he is showing some good defensive ability even if he can't throw guys out much, but the other 4 shouldn't be on a contender at this stage IMO.

I frankly think it would be quite the statement to DFA Garcia, Wendle, Yuli, and Stallings in one swoop and call up Amaya, Hampson, Edwards, and Alfaro. How much worse could it get? Those guys have a -0.7 WAR in 850 PA. Edwards, Hampson, Amaya, and Alfaro have a collective .1 WAR in 200+ PA, and that's being dragged down by Alfaro's .188 BABIP so it might be a bit better than that. This is at least a 1 win improvement, but yea SSS all around there, but at least there is some hope there. Or at least they could all score 1st to home on a double or maybe avoid a double play here and there. Practically, I imagine they'd keep Yuli so just keep Hampson/Edwards in AAA until September call-ups and can add the other 3 for Garcia, Wendle, and Stallings tomorrow.

It's time for something here. They can certainly work with this (all expected statcast OPS based on hit rates). I think this is 7 really good starters, 1 OK one, and Fortes is a solid backup.

-Soler .867(!!!. He's probably the best hitter on the team)
-Arraez .796 (he is a slap hitting freak so not sure statcast can adequately account for all the bloops, but this is still good even on their hit analytics and likely better in reality. Especially with his own amazing RHP split which is an actual .896 right now. This argument can be used for Yuli also I suppose, but giving him 30-60 OPS points on his expected .620 isn't as impactful as it is for dropping something like that on Arraez)
-Bell .841(!!!, defense be damned)
-Sanchez .824(!, and would spike on RHP I am sure)
-Burger .814(!)
-Berti .707 (plus borderline elite defense so he's a very good starter right now)
-Jazz .704 (I find this surprising this low, but would imagine it is due to being banged up, LHP splits, and he spikes up on RHP. Also great defensively so a very good starter vs RHP so I think he goes here)
---
-DLC .753 (good enough as an 8th starting bat even with the defense)
---
-Fortes .630 (LHP split, some defense so he's fine to backup)


This is a pretty good lineup swapping out Jazz, Sanchez, and Fortes against most left handers, and DLC, Bell, and Soler for defense when needed. Amaya is a LHP split guy in the minors and slick defensively, Alfaro (who they could DH or play in the field in a pinch) is a career .738 OPS against LHP which when compared to Stallings and Wendle makes him babe ruth, and Edwards could be everything we all want him to be as another Berti type (more offense, less defense though). I don't get it. You know how bad it has to be to be able to rationalize current Alfaro picked up off the street makes a lot of sense for a contending ball club as a platoon catcher against RHP and part time LHP DH? Hopefully they do something here as they are being propped up by the starters and good pitching with the bench offering absolutely nothing.


TLDR - DFA Garcia, Wendle, and Stallings today and call up Amaya, Alfaro, and Edwards/Hampson, with the other in September when rosters expand. Or they could do it now and DFA Yuli too, but they probably keep him as the old playoff experience veteran and the 13th man on the roster wouldn't play much anyways so who cares.

[Nick]

Hampson btw is hitting .459 at AAA since getting demoted.

[AdamRavs]

Kim seems scared to make any call ups or send downs. Other than fringe players. The bullpen needs help too. Puk is giving up piss missles everynight. Tanners arm might fall off with how much we use him. Soriano is the only bright spot lately.

[lou]

Hampson btw is hitting .459 at AAA since getting demoted.

Yea, it's just time. It's 2 weeks to September so why not just let Edwards get everyday PA for 2 more weeks and call up Amaya, Hampson, and can't believe I am saying this Alfaro and just cut ship with Garcia, Wendle, and Stallings. I can't imagine it would be any worse than the collective .600 OPS those 3 are hitting and I'm not sure any notable defense is lost combined with some greater offensive, and base running, potential all over. I'm not sure what the deal is. Maybe they are waiting to get through the west coast games to have the "vets" on the roadtrip.

[lou]

Kim seems scared to make any call ups or send downs. Other than fringe players. The bullpen needs help too. Puk is giving up piss missles everynight. Tanners arm might fall off with how much we use him. Soriano is the only bright spot lately.

Yea but they have nothing for the bullpen besides cycling arms that can be used. The arms are ride or die at this point. Maybe Nance gets into the mix soon.

[dgriot]

Kim seems scared to make any call ups or send downs.

I honestly struggle with how much of that is Kim being too far on the "not swayed by SSS" pendulum, and how much is ownership being that godawfully cheap (e.g., "What? An extra 200k to bring up a replacement for the rest of the season after eating the cut player's contract?!")

I mean, this is the same owner who talked about providing resources, yet they still sold a fringe top 100 prospect to shed a bad contract at the deadline.

[lou]

I honestly struggle with how much of that is Kim being too far on the "not swayed by SSS" pendulum, and how much is ownership being that godawfully cheap (e.g., "What? An extra 200k to bring up a replacement for the rest of the season after eating the cut player's contract?!")

I mean, this is the same owner who talked about providing resources, yet they still sold a fringe top 100 prospect to shed a bad contract at the deadline.

Sure on the first, especially if they believe kids getting their feet wet won't produce more. (harder to say that with at least Hampson though.)

But Watson isn't a fringe top 100 prospect. He's probably closer to 300 just to quib here. Plus Bell is a vast improvement over Segura so there is more to that than just a money dump of Segura (which was actually taking on more money with Bell once he opts in). I don't share the criticism for THAT move. They did good at the deadline. Vargas was the overpay for Robertson if anything IMO. Make the playoffs and all is forgiven though.

[dgriot]

[stonealysis]Uh, Watson hit a homer in his most recent game - need I say more? [/stonealysis]

My poor brain completely jumbled up both timeline and players, re: Watson's value, negating that second bit. My bad.

[lou]

[stonealysis]Uh, Watson hit a homer in his most recent game - need I say more? [/stonealysis]

My poor brain completely jumbled up both timeline and players, re: Watson's value, negating that second bit. My bad.

I mean he should be a top 100 guy.......... And you know what I just realized - Matt McLain was drafted directly after him. Fucking hell. He is exactly what they need. Playing over his head, but that's a 2+ WAR middle infielder with some bat upside longterm easy. That one is a HUGE miss even if the draft is a crapshoot. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ma...position=2B/SS

[Namaste]

I feel like we have a shot tonight. Verlander’s xFIP is 4.55 and Luzardo’s is 3.62

[Nick]

Luzardo needs to be better than he was last outing.

[lou]

I feel like we have a shot tonight. Verlander’s xFIP is 4.55 and Luzardo’s is 3.62

You already jinxed it.


However, I have been thinking about getting Luzardo an off day/skipped start, as he likely needs one to manage some innings, and they have a good opportunity coming up. They should unload the pen today to help him with the off day tomorrow and Sandy on Friday. He can then max out against the Padres and take a long breather.

I'm hoping something like this and Cueto is effectively phased out.

Astros
16 Luzardo
17 OFF

@Dodgers
18 Sandy
19 Eury (extra rest)
20 Garrett

@Padres
21 Luzardo <--- Skip Cueto here
22 Cabrera call back + Cueto support 1 time through
23 Sandy (normal rest) <-- Throw against better teams and use the off day
24 OFF

Nationals
25 Eury (extra rest)
26 Garrett (extra rest)
27 Cabrera + Cueto support <--- Skip Luzardo here and get him 3 more days off
28 OFF

Rays
29 Sandy (extra rest) <-- Throw against better teams
30 Eury

@Nationals
31 Garrett
1 Cabrera + Cueto support
2 Luzardo (skipped start gets him 10 days off here)
3 Cueto/Bullpen day < ---- Kick Sandy a game to get to the Dodgers IMO
4 OFF

Dodgers
5 Sandy (extra rest) <---- full SP reset here
6 Eury (extra rest) + Cueto support < --- Shift Cueto here on out now to help Eury
7 Luzardo (normal rest) <-- Throw against better teams at home

@Phillies
8 Cabrera (extra rest)
9 Garrett (extra rest)
10 Sandy and so forth with Eury (+ Cueto), Luzardo, Cabrera, and Garrett, with no off days for next 10 games so two cycles through + a third Sandy.


I think this works for some innings management using off days, trying to get Eury some extra rest, and strategically pitching Sandy around the Nationals. It'll be really awesome if Weathers gets his shit together and they can add him for that September 3rd start and maybe go to a 6 man rotation (Cueto still in pen as longman) but never skip Sandy starting September 5th.

[lou]

Maybe Luzardo should get that start off next week. Sigh

[Nick]

Burger Boy! Worried about Luzardo.

[Nick]

What a play by Pena.