2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[emkayseven]

Almost as if one guy didn’t have a .224 BABIP

[lou]

Again, im fine with that plan, but why on earth would puig take a deal where he's getting a small amount in year 3 and delaying his free agency by a year rather than just taking the two year deal and betting on himself to put up numbers and get another multiyear deal after two more years. Why would that be even remotely appealing to him? its not like he is about to fall out of the league or is at risk of not getting another contract in two more years with his production.

And again, i think the worrying about right handed vs left handed hitters now is premature. I dont care about right vs. left so much as i care about their splits against righties and lefties. If they can only hit against righties they arent long term solutions anyways. And to answer your question, Monte, VVM, jerar, Burdick are all righties, brinson is still around as a righty, and anderson is a righty. In addition, in the lineup hopefully longterm we already have Anderson, Alfaro, and hopefully an outfielder like Monte or Cooper or whoever the hell we draft this year. It's just a premature issue to worry about. You dont worry about the astros top 4-5 hitters being righties in Correa, Bregman, Springer, Altuve, and also gurriel because they arent platoon players and can hit against both lefties and righties. So if we have 6 lefties in the lineup long term in bleday, jazz, diaz, lewin, sanchez, and then another guy maybe like misner or connor scott, i dont really give a shit so long as they can hit both lefties and righties and arent 1 dimensional platoon players like a Joc Pederson for example/

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ya it's almost as if one guy is 3 years older than the other and in his second year in the big leagues rather than getting his first taste of the big leagues.

You make it worth his while. If he can get 2/$24 only now, how about 3/$36 and a 4th year option for $8. That's a lot more guaranteed money for him right now, stagger it say $15-15-$6-$8 so it's up front which is a real benefit. Maybe you have an amazing asset in 2022/2023 and it costs you bullshit salary in bad years. He has to remain motivated as 22/23 are both contract years.

Bullpen usage is going to change with 1 inning relievers. Staggering the lineup will matter more.

[fish16]

You make it worth his while. If he can get 2/$24 only now, how about 3/$36 and a 4th year option for $8. That's a lot more guaranteed money for him right now, stagger it say $15-15-$6-$8 so it's up front which is a real benefit. Maybe you have an amazing asset in 2022/2023 and it costs you bullshit salary in bad years. He has to remain motivated as 22/23 are both contract years.

Bullpen usage is going to change with 1 inning relievers. Staggering the lineup will matter more.

Theres just no need to go to 4 years or even 3 years with puig. especially given our OF prospects, how easy it is to find productive stop gap outfielders in free agency, and how quickly he often wears out his welcome. Get him to bide some time for someone like Sanchez or Bleday, excite the fans in what will be another (hopefully the last) rebuilding year, and if you need a right handed hitting outfielder 3 years from now just go get one then. You talk about value in the form of two years extra of puig for 14 million when you can just go ahead and sign a guy for that same amount 2 years from now from a crop of many more outfielders due to how many of them are available each year. The upside of 2/14 for two extra years when all your young kids should be ready is not worth the downside of him wearing out his welcome quickly then having a clubhouse guy that you've locked up long term for no reason because no one else will be giving him 3 years. If in the best case scenario it works out well and he wants to re-sign, you can probably re-sign him for those 2 years for something similar to that price range anyways given that he will be 31 and has a reputation as a clubhouse issue.

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the kind of value you are clamoring for in puig's last 2 years in that hypothetical situation can be found quite literally every single offseason at the outfielder position. i can go year by year and show you the guys who were available and the contracts they've gotten from the past 3-4 years if youd like. It's not nearly as valuable as you think it is to get a guy for 8-10 million a year to produce above average production from a free agent outfielder.

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and again, staggering the lineups is not all that big of an advantage if your guys arent all 1 dimensional platoon type players with extreme splits. If they are all quality major leaguers who can hit both lefties and righties you are overthinking it severely. if they have extreme splits against righties and lefties, they likely arent long term everyday solutions anyways.

[sports24/7]

With Calhoun signing in AZ, Mish has Puig up to 55% and says he’s the priority right now.

[fish16]

With Calhoun signing in AZ, Mish has Puig up to 55% and says he’s the priority right now.

It’s almost assuredly gonna be exactly what Lou doesn’t want. Either a 1+1 or a straight 2 year deal for 20-23 million

[Lee Stone]

[QUOTE=fish16;404003]It’s almost assuredly gonna be exactly what Lou doesn’t want. Either a 1+1 or a straight 2 year deal for 20-23 million[/QUOTE

Why would Puig rate more money than Calhoun? The latter seems like a lock to provide more WAR than Puig over the next two years. Given the Calhoun contract, 2 years and $14-15M should be max for Puig..

[lou]

It’s almost assuredly gonna be exactly what Lou doesn’t want. Either a 1+1 or a straight 2 year deal for 20-23 million

Probably, and I maintain that is dumb and a waste of money. Your best case scenario in a 1/2 year deal is trading him at the deadline for a "Neidert" in a non-contending year. And imagine if he is really good and the Marlins then trade the fun Cuban guy when everyone else sucks. More press they need, even if they get a good prospect. Or, he's really good, and then they extend him a QFA and pay him $17 a year or give him an even bigger deal.

It should be three years with a 4th year option, or at least 2 and an option. A lot of money up front 2020/2021 as an incentive to not take the 1 year "show me" deal and for the Marlins to take a gamble he is like his final 390 PA (June 4th-EOS - 1.9 WAR, 390 PA, that's a 2.9 WAR pace over 600 PA which is really good. Overall, he has been a 2.2 WAR player over 600 PA 2017-2019 which is a very solid starter). He's 29-32 these years so he should hold up, especially in LF (as Sanchez and Anderson will be better in right probably).

His last contract was 7/$42. I think you appeal to his ego and get the deal to $43 so he feels he has moved up in the world.

2020 - $14
2021 - $12
2022 - $8 (guaranteed 3/$35)
2023 - $1 million buyout, or $9 (4/$43 with option).

This is basically your 2 year valuation, but guaranteeing him the same money on a 3rd year, and because you paid him up front on this, you have a cheap back end year. His agent can explain to him the idea that the Marlins are paying more now as an incentive to sign (with good tax policy with Trump and no state income tax) and build a contender around him in 2022.

Yes, it is more than Puig should get, but that's the gamble. Spend more money when you suck to be better when you are good. It's an easy concept.

Personally, I think he'd take that and he can get another 2-3 year deal like Calhoun when he's done with this and get career earnings over $100 million.

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FG values Puig at $47 million BTW for 2017-2019.

I can't see how you lose on that deal. He's being projected as a 2 WAR player next year, and that'll tick up in LF with his defense shifting from RF. Likewise, if whatever hitting adjustments he made last 4 months are real, you're going to make a killing on him.

I'd take the risk with him.

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Why would Puig rate more money than Calhoun? The latter seems like a lock to provide more WAR than Puig over the next two years. Given the Calhoun contract, 2 years and $14-15M should be max for Puig..

Puig is 3 years younger, and better. Calhoun was a replacement level player in 2018 and had an unsustainable HR/FB spike in 2019. His BABIP is very low which is interesting, but there is way more risk with him.

Marlins need to shoot for upside in 22/23. They need to start taking some shots.

[tjfla]

Looks like Puig to Miami is pretty much done. Still working on contract years. Marlins wanting 2 and Puig wanting 3+ likely to be a Calhoun type deal with 2 years and an option

Both sides gave some-Puig's camp wanted 3+ years which Miami kept saying NO to and Marlins pretty much told Puig's camp Mattingly won't be around much longer-1 year or so which is what they wanted to hear. I should say its not that Miami didn't want to go 3+ years they just want to make sure he still got it before they give him that type of deal.

Again not sure when will be announced(since holidays and all) plus still working on years but pretty much a done deal. Not sure about cash but likely a 3/27-30 or 2/20 with option of 1/7-10

Don't be surprised to see 1 of Dean,Cooper or Brinson gone as Miami still wants a LH bat and RP

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RIGHT NOW!!!!

C-Alfaro/Cervelli
1B-Aguilar
2B-Isan
SS-Rojas/Berti
3B-Villar
LF-Puig/Ramirez
CF-Sierra/Brinson
RF-BA/Cooper

SP-Caleb/Sandy/Pablo/Yamamoto/Urena

RP
Elieser
Quijada
Jarlin
Yimi
Brice
Sharp
Steck
Stanek

No Conley and likely will see a Urena,Brice or Elieser traded to open a spot for a RP

I dont think Sierra starts but right now yes. I think Cooper dealt or sold to Japan and LHB gets his spot

IF Elieser/minor pieces to Minnesota for Cave/minor pieces still on the table I would do that in a second. Send Elieser and Dean or even Cooper to Minnesota for Cave,arm like Alcala or even a Nick Gordon. Works out for both teams

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Miami and NYY also have talked about a JA Happ salary dump. Nothing yet but if still on NYY in month or 2 and Miami trades Urena/Elieser u could hear some noise. Would be us getting Happ and a sweetner or 2(prospects) for some low level prospect. Happ is 17 million this year

[fauowls44]

Edwin Encarnacion to the White Sox for 1/$12 million with a $12 million option in 2021. The market for bats is pretty much set for the Marlins. 2 years between $8-10 million a year with an option should get a deal done with Puig. Get it done.

[fish16]

I still think we need to add 1 more consistent veteran starter. I like our arms but there is definitely injury risk until guys like Sixto, Cabrera, and Neidert are ready and able to provide depth.

Next year is coming into focus though

C- Alfaro/Cervelli
1b- Aguilar/Cooper
2b- Diaz
SS- Rojas
3b- Villar
LF- Puig
CF- Brinson/Sierra/Berti/whoever else might stick.
RF- Anderson

Rotation of Sandy, Smith, Lopez, Yamamoto, Urena? (Would sign a innings eater for a year and trade Urena or just carry 6 guys for the inevitable injury.

[lou]

I still think we need to add 1 more consistent veteran starter. I like our arms but there is definitely injury risk until guys like Sixto, Cabrera, and Neidert are ready and able to provide depth.

Next year is coming into focus though

C- Alfaro/Cervelli
1b- Aguilar/Cooper
2b- Diaz
SS- Rojas
3b- Villar
LF- Puig
CF- Brinson/Sierra/Berti/whoever else might stick.
RF- Anderson

Rotation of Sandy, Smith, Lopez, Yamamoto, Urena? (Would sign a innings eater for a year and trade Urena or just carry 6 guys for the inevitable injury.

C - Alfaro, Cervelli (2)
1B - Aguilar, Cooper, L. Diaz (3)
2B - I. Diaz, Berti (2)
SS - Rojas, Jazz (2)
3B - Villar, Anderson (2)
CF - Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
OF - Puig, Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (4)
=18

SP - Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto, E. Hernandez, Dugger, Neidert, Sixto, E. Cabrera (10)
RP - Steckenrider, Stanek, Y. Garcia, Brice, Sharp, Brigham, Guzman, (7)
LP - Garcia, Conley, Quijada (3)
Other - Holloway, Mejia (2 - likely non 2020 players)
=22

Total=40 (New DFAs - Wallach)

I think you trade Elisier (Or Dugger or Brice) for Cave, or prospects and use the space for a different lefty outfielder, ideally a CF (so then you have 2 position players on the 40 man in AAA for immediate injury call ups, i.e. Brinson and Dean as even if an infielder is hurt, Berti, Rojas, and Villar can play everywhere, and Anderson is helpful here too)

I like the idea of another starter, and I'd move out Brice (Or Dugger or Hernandez) in a trade, promote Brigham to 25 man, and push Yamamoto to AAA. Yamamoto and Hernandez/Dugger are your injury call ups for 2 months before the bigger names show up. Practically, they can probably call up Neidert/Guzman for a stretch before the super 2 deadline also, with the idea they'd then be sent back down when the injury need is over.

Assuming Puig is under $12, and the "new starter" is a $5million ish player, that's a $70-75 million payroll for the 26 man, including Chen.

I just looked at the SP free agent list. It's pretty bad. Alex Wood still is interesting to me if they can assume health. Jhoulys Chacin is still pretty young (31) and was great in 2017-2018. He's gotta be cheap on a 1 year reclamation project, and he'd have to love landing in the NL in a pitcher's park. His HR rate tripled last year, so I feel that is a statistical blip and he could calm down quickly. Vargas and Bailey are probably good for 20 starts and under a 5 ERA too if we're really looking at just eating some innings to protect the kids until the summer. I can't imagine Chacin would cost a lot and his velocity held last year. I think it might be him among all the bad options, as he probably plays up in the bullpen if he gets hammered in April.

[Erick]

There’s a rumor of trading Caleb to the Twins because we’re interested in their outfielders and a couple of their relievers.

[rmc523]

I'm of the opinion that they just need to pander and sign Puig even if he isn't the best fit for the club and even if it's an overpay or we see diminishing returns. Second is Ozuna as I think he brings back some excitement for the "old days" as well and they can spin it as, we got your 2019 All Star and Jazz Chisholm and now we have Ozuna back anyway. I don't think Castellanos moves the needle -- I get he's local but I don't think that matters. (Did people show up to see Mike Morse? I get that Castellanos is better, but still)

Until this is a playoff team people won't show up no matter how exciting the players are so they need something else to root for. Cuban folk hero or a "coming home" story will draw some people and generate some buzz, nothing else will.

I mean, I guess because he's Cuban it's different? Otherwise you're contradicting yourself there; Castellanos - home town guy - won't bring attention, but Puig - Cuban/"home town" guy - will?

Or you could not waste money on 2022/23 for no reason and get the best stop gap on the market to give us an impact bat in the lineup while the kids develop. There’s no reason to go three years on any of these players and puig is the best combo of potential impact combined with increased fan interest. This whole notion that you continue to insist on in giving some sort of player 3 years makes no sense unless the player makes sense for three years from now. You’re allowed to find interesting stop gap options that will be productive for two years and might speed up the rebuild by a year without cutting into payroll 3 years from now when at least 3 of the prospects should be working out by then.

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And there’s no reason why puig would ever accept a 3 year deal where he’s getting 5 million in a third year. Why would he ever accept that rather than just taking a 2/20 and betting that he will increase his value for one last multi year deal? All that would do for him is give him 5 million (not much at all for a player of his caliber) to delay his next free agent deal by a year, going from free agency at 32 vs 31

My problem with this approach is that it's counting on the kids 100%, when we don't have those surefire stud guy prospects. Good ones, but not those Harper or Tatis kind of prospects.

Looks like Puig to Miami is pretty much done. Still working on contract years. Marlins wanting 2 and Puig wanting 3+ likely to be a Calhoun type deal with 2 years and an option

Both sides gave some-Puig's camp wanted 3+ years which Miami kept saying NO to and Marlins pretty much told Puig's camp Mattingly won't be around much longer-1 year or so which is what they wanted to hear. I should say its not that Miami didn't want to go 3+ years they just want to make sure he still got it before they give him that type of deal.

Again not sure when will be announced(since holidays and all) plus still working on years but pretty much a done deal. Not sure about cash but likely a 3/27-30 or 2/20 with option of 1/7-10

Don't be surprised to see 1 of Dean,Cooper or Brinson gone as Miami still wants a LH bat and RP

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RIGHT NOW!!!!

C-Alfaro/Cervelli
1B-Aguilar
2B-Isan
SS-Rojas/Berti
3B-Villar
LF-Puig/Ramirez
CF-Sierra/Brinson
RF-BA/Cooper

SP-Caleb/Sandy/Pablo/Yamamoto/Urena

RP
Elieser
Quijada
Jarlin
Yimi
Brice
Sharp
Steck
Stanek

No Conley and likely will see a Urena,Brice or Elieser traded to open a spot for a RP

I dont think Sierra starts but right now yes. I think Cooper dealt or sold to Japan and LHB gets his spot

IF Elieser/minor pieces to Minnesota for Cave/minor pieces still on the table I would do that in a second. Send Elieser and Dean or even Cooper to Minnesota for Cave,arm like Alcala or even a Nick Gordon. Works out for both teams

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Miami and NYY also have talked about a JA Happ salary dump. Nothing yet but if still on NYY in month or 2 and Miami trades Urena/Elieser u could hear some noise. Would be us getting Happ and a sweetner or 2(prospects) for some low level prospect. Happ is 17 million this year

You sure are dead set on this just throw Cooper to Japan thing lol.

[lou]

There’s a rumor of trading Caleb to the Twins because we’re interested in their outfielders and a couple of their relievers.

Caleb has a surplus value $40+ and Rosario $25+. (Also I'm ignoring if you get Rosario and Puig, I guess Villar is playing CF unless we're just predicting Puig up in the middle???).

There would need to be a bunch of other moving parts

[Nick]

You sure are dead set on this just throw Cooper to Japan thing lol.

He was also dead set on Puig will never come here because of Mattingly too.