2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[tjfla]

We’re out of the bidding because you don’t overpay guys just because you happen to have a low payroll at the time. Terrible teams give out clear overpays because of current salary obligations. Well run teams never give out contracts that are blatant overpays because they happen to have a cleared salary sheet for the next few years. Not doing so would just lead you back to the point where you’re paying way too much for merely average players like prado, Chen, Ziegler, tazawa, etc

Well u do overpay but u dont give 6 yr contracts. If Boras said 4/70 to Marlins right now they would probably take it. Kinda an overpay

[fauowls44]

Morejon,Weathers,Baez,Lawson are all in the 10-18 range all sites have different opinions. Just depends on what type of arm they are looking for as all 4 are totally different

10-18 in SD system is Top 7 in most others

SD would be throwing in cash too and the Comp A pick is valuable

Name I like is Hudson Potts but like Campusano doubt they would trade him and SD has so many IF prospects I wouldnt push the issue

IF they do something with SD it prolly will be AFTER the Rule 5 draft however so days away

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Talking about Rule 5

Here is the arm they are looking hard at. 25 yr old with injury concerns

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...ching/2019/ALL

However this is the arm they really wanted BEFORE Houston got wind of it an added him to 40 man

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...ching/2019/ALL

This is the arm I would take if they go RP route

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...ching/2019/ALL

ALL 3 are in Houston system!!!

Yohan Ramirez doesn't exactly fit with the recent moves they've made with relievers. His command is an issue and he's already 24. Not sure he'll ever throw enough strikes to make it in the Majors.

[lou]

I think I'd have to get a player in the Campusano/Morejon/Weathers range to take on that much money with Wil Myers.

He has averaged a 1.5 WAR the last 2 years (per 600/PA) so he's not completely deadweight. Also, he is 37th percentile in barrels/hard hit, and 5th(!) percentile in average exit velocity for fly balls/line drives. Directly before him are Chapman, Olson, Y. Diaz, Soto, Ohtani, Harper, and Choo.... and after him Yelich, Eloy, Alonso, Alfaro(!), Devers, and Ozuna. That's a good list to be on. He also still walks a lot. See also, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-the-heck-wil-myers/.

There is risk involved, but this is screaming a buy-low to me. The Padres know it too. But, if they can shed $40-45 million and give up say two prospects who would land in the Marlins top 15-25 and protect their top end guys, that makes sense.

[tjfla]

Yohan Ramirez doesn't exactly fit with the recent moves they've made with relievers. His command is an issue and he's already 24. Not sure he'll ever throw enough strikes to make it in the Majors.

Ya u usually take 24/25 yr olds in Rule 5 usually which is why most teams dont protect 20/21 yr old solid prospects(Ruiz/Javier/Newton). Very true but hits 99FB and has 4 pitches

Like said I am not a fan but looking hard at him from what I heard. Would be surprise it they picked someone else NO but they lke him

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He has averaged a 1.5 WAR the last 2 years (per 600/PA) so he's not completely deadweight. Also, he is 37th percentile in barrels/hard hit, and 5th(!) percentile in average exit velocity for fly balls/line drives. Directly before him are Chapman, Olson, Y. Diaz, Soto, Ohtani, Harper, and Choo.... and after him Yelich, Eloy, Alonso, Alfaro(!), Devers, and Ozuna. That's a good list to be on. He also still walks a lot. See also, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-the-heck-wil-myers/.

There is risk involved, but this is screaming a buy-low to me. The Padres know it too. But, if they can shed $40-45 million and give up say two prospects who would land in the Marlins top 15-25 and protect their top end guys, that makes sense.

Yep and Marlins arent even likely to be picky about the prospects long as that Comp A pick is in the deal.

[lou]

Yep and Marlins arent even likely to be picky about the prospects long as that Comp A pick is in the deal.

I agree, but don't think the pick is necessary as they have a lot of players to choose from. It would make sense for them to jettison a guy due for the 40 man next year to keep shedding those guys as they can't keep them all.

I'll revise my above:

Myers
Ruiz < -Probably going to lose Rule V for nothing. Best 3B in Marlins system and can stash on 40 man in Minors. This is a 17-20 player in Marlins system, with upside for backend top 10
FV40 prospect due for 40 man next year < - Saves them some room. Top 20-25 player in system.
Comp A or Hunt < - Have 3 better organizational catchers, and now Marlins have 2 Banfields. Another top 20-25 player.
$15+ million in cash

for a prospect outside Marlins top 30, or send them Conley/Urena and get something nominally better with one of those players/cash.

If the Marlins are paying Myers say $20-$12.5-$12.5, and get 3 solid minor leaguers (ideally all right handed bats!). That's pretty good for me.

That's better than 4/$70 for Castellanos to me (which I'm also fine with).

[tjfla]

I agree, but don't think the pick is necessary as they have a lot of players to choose from. It would make sense for them to jettison a guy due for the 40 man next year to keep shedding those guys as they can't keep them all.

I'll revise my above:

Myers
Ruiz < -Probably going to lose Rule V for nothing. Best 3B in Marlins system and can stash on 40 man in Minors. This is a 17-20 player in Marlins system, with upside for backend top 10
FV40 prospect due for 40 man next year < - Saves them some room. Top 20-25 player in system.
Comp A or Hunt < - Have 3 better organizational catchers, and now Marlins have 2 Banfields. Another top 20-25 player.
$15+ million in cash

for a prospect outside Marlins top 30, or send them Conley/Urena and get something nominally better with one of those players/cash.

If the Marlins are paying Myers say $20-$12.5-$12.5, and get 3 solid minor leaguers (ideally all right handed bats!). That's pretty good for me.

That's better than 4/$70 for Castellanos to me (which I'm also fine with).

I think everyone is fine with Castellanos at 4/70 except Boras

They want they comp pick so they can add guys like Fitterer,Mokma later in draft. If they get it the trade could really be Myers and 5 Prospects(instead of 2 College Seniors they take 2 FV40 types plus whoever at #34)

True what u said but don't forget guys drafted this year don't have to be added to 40 man for 5 years. Guys in trades have to sooner and Miami already has 6-8 next year waiting

9 C in Top 100 this year. Maybe u draft 1 of them at #34 sign below slot? Its all about that draft cap space. With #3 and extra 2.5 million from #34 u could potential save few million for later in the draft on guys who have Top 3 Rd talent but fell cause high bonus demand

[Nick]

I just think I'd need a better best prospect than a guy they're probably going to let go to the Rule 5 anyway. Also, granted he's very young, but Ruiz hasn't shown a lot with the bat above Rookie Ball, especially if you're expecting him to be a 3B. This is a guy that's at least 2 full years off. That's quite a while to stash him on the 40-Man. I still say you'd have to get one of those 45+ guys on FG at the least.

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And as far as Myers goes. He's not useless, but let's face it, if we bring him in he'll be a bench guy by the time we're ready to compete, with Castellanos/Ozuna/Pederson you feel a lot better that they're going to be in the starting lineup and be an important cog when we're ready to make a run.

[Maddawg]

Man if the Angels signed Cole, I think they'd probably have double the Marlins entire payroll wrapped up in 4 players next year.

Nobody in the MLB sees a problem with that?

I do but, hey, it just reflects our country right now....

[lou]

I just think I'd need a better best prospect than a guy they're probably going to let go to the Rule 5 anyway. Also, granted he's very young, but Ruiz hasn't shown a lot with the bat above Rookie Ball, especially if you're expecting him to be a 3B. This is a guy that's at least 2 full years off. That's quite a while to stash him on the 40-Man. I still say you'd have to get one of those 45+ guys on FG at the least.

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And as far as Myers goes. He's not useless, but let's face it, if we bring him in he'll be a bench guy by the time we're ready to compete, with Castellanos/Ozuna/Pederson you feel a lot better that they're going to be in the starting lineup and be an important cog when we're ready to make a run.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but if you're San Diego why are you trading those guys so the deal has to work for them too.

Not so sure Myers is a bench player either. If he's hitting the ball that hard for 3 years good things are going to happen.

Long story short, there is a combination that works. But the Marlins also have options of theoretically Castellanos, Ozuna, Puig, Joc, etc. so there is no desperate need to do any of these moves as volume still exists.

[Nick]

The last time Myers had an OPS over .800 it was 2013 his rookie year. He's been around a long time now, at some point you just are what you are, and what he is is a guy that's going to put up an OPS somewhere between .725-.775 and in this era of baseball you want more than that from your corner OF's.

[Lee Stone]

The last time Myers had an OPS over .800 it was 2013 his rookie year. He's been around a long time now, at some point you just are what you are, and what he is is a guy that's going to put up an OPS somewhere between .725-.775 and in this era of baseball you want more than that from your corner OF's.

I agree that there is no point taking on a bunch of salary for the sake of adding a few marginal prospects. I don't think this ownership would even consider it.

[lou]

The last time Myers had an OPS over .800 it was 2013 his rookie year. He's been around a long time now, at some point you just are what you are, and what he is is a guy that's going to put up an OPS somewhere between .725-.775 and in this era of baseball you want more than that from your corner OF's.

Don't care what his OPS is historically, care about overall production and it's hard to say he's less than a 1.5 WAR guy which is a solid player. Just saying. He hits the ball really hard so there is major upside if he can work it out.

I'm not saying this is the best idea, but it could be a really good one depending on what else SD would chip in with money or prospects. They have the juice to explore this if they want to shed some money.

The best idea is to trade for Rizzo and sign him longterm. Bleday, Lewin, and something else. Eat Chatwood's money, etc. Then sign Castellanos for 4 for LF.

Bring both the south florida boys home. Team looks great along with Villar and pray for CF.

[Nick]

oh for sure, a Wil Myers move is just the thing they should be looking into. I just don't think I agree that bringing in Myers and absorbing that contract is an alternative to bringing in Castellanos/Ozuna/Pederson.

[fish16]

Bleday and Lewin for a 30 year old rizzo in a move that won’t make us a contender next year would be horrendous. If you can get a guy like betts, Lindor, or Bryant and then extend them a bleday trade would be fine for me but not for a 30 year d rizzo who is of course a great player but doesn’t put you over the top and is a free agent in two years

[Nick]

Any deal we make for Rizzo or even Joc Pederson-level player has to come with an extension already signed. Rizzo may be more open to an extension too since he's got that club option looming in 2021.