2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[tjfla]

Desmond has been a negative WAR player for 3 seasons with over 1300 PA during that time.

He's owed 2/$25. This is worse than Wil Myers.

I honestly don't know what prospect combination can make that work. This is like negative $35 million in value so you'd need Rollison, Pint, and a Comp Pick, and sending back even less than the Villar trade (14th round pick).

Not sure Ian Desmond is high on the list. They want LHB in reality but are listening to pretty much all calls . He can play CF/corners/1B at least. The Villar/Aguilar gets pretty much killed alot of the stuff Miami was looking/talking about the past few weeks. No point in have 4 RHB who can only play 1B/RF

Also its not about getting Desmond or Myers or whoever its the prospects and draft picks/IFA u get as well. Broken record I know BUT if u get a Comp A pick u pretty much are getting a FV50-45 and 2 FV40 prospects at some point if u play cards right instead of a FV50 and 2 college seniors who will be released

Rounds dont mean much anymore in MLB draft as 38th Rd Talent is going in Rd 6 and signing for 1K and 5th Rd talent is going in Rd 22 and signing for 200K+. Should say less than a 23 yr old Low A Ball SP

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NOT saying this is a trade they are looking at BUT

Colorado-Brett Graves/DSL P
Miami-Ian Desmond,Tyler Nevin,Riley Pint and Comp A Pick

In reality u could get Nevin,Pint,FV45 College SP,and 2 more FV40 hard signings later for 2 years of Ian Desmond. 5 PROSPECTS to let Ian Desmond do nothing for 2 years and give him 25 million. Should they do this probably NOT but 2020 they will suck anyways and in 2021 they can always Chen him if they need the spot.

Again NOT saying they would do this deal and dont even think they are looking at Desmond

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Looks like LAD is serious on Rendon even more now and are trying to move contracts around fast. Joc/Pollock/Joe Kelly/Kike candidates to move

[sports24/7]

As someone who lives in LA, and enjoys watching the Dodgers, I'd love for them to get Joc and/or Kike. Both guys are a lot of fun to watch.

[lou]

As someone who lives in LA, and enjoys watching the Dodgers, I'd love for them to get Joc and/or Kike. Both guys are a lot of fun to watch.

Joc is interesting. He's a perfect age, a well above average LF/RF (he can never play 1B again!), and can really hit.

I'd be open to trading for Joc, and signing him to a 4 year extension (ages 28-31). He'd probably sign something like 4/$55+, as the alternative is a 1/$8 arbitration tender and likely a qualifying offer to destroy his value next year.

If they did that though, they'd need to trade Bleday/Sanchez pretty quickly IMO for a comparable SP. I don't think that would be difficult to do. Ironic since they just did that with Sanchez though...

If they resign Villar, they look like this longterm:

Alfaro, Whoever
Lewin, Cooper
Isan
Jazz, Berti
Villar
Joc
Monte, Sierra/VVM/Brinson/Miller
Anderson, Sanchez/Bleday

If Monte, Berti, etc. cover CF, they are set. If anyone wants to bitch about playing time, I think that's a deep as hell team and it would work itself out.

My main concern permeates though - very lefty heavy. But if Monte is good (.800+ OPS versus LHP), Cooper is 2019 for a few years, Anderson grows into a little power, and Villar is his general career so far, I am beyond OK with it.

[Nick]

I wonder if something like this would get it done:

Marlins Get:

Joc (immediate extension is a must, 4/$55-$60)
Joe Kelly (2/$21)
Connor Wong

Dodgers Get:

Adam Conley
Evan Fitterer
Pompey or Jerar

That would probably tap out what we're able to spend this offseason, but you get your OF bat, you get a decent (but extremely overpaid) bullpen arm which are the things we are rumored to be looking for, and then you get a hold of one of those Dodgers Catchers that they have too much of, and Wong looks to be an Austin Barnes type except a much better hitter. Plays C/2B/3B. Will start in AAA.

[Namaste]

Jim Bowden
@JimBowdenGM
#Marlins were in on Nicholas Castellanos but after Michael Moustakas signed his $64m 4yr deal with #Reds price for Castellanos sky rocketed and took the Fish out of the bidding according to source.
9:56 AM · Dec 9, 2019·TweetDeck

Why are we out of the bidding, though? Because we are too close to the salary cap?

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As someone who lives in LA, and enjoys watching the Dodgers, I'd love for them to get Joc and/or Kike. Both guys are a lot of fun to watch.

I wish we had guys like Kike.



No but seriously, I was born in LA and I watch a lot of Dodgers baseball and I totally agree with you.

[lou]

I wonder if something like this would get it done:

Marlins Get:

Joc (immediate extension is a must, 4/$55-$60)
Joe Kelly (2/$21)
Connor Wong

Dodgers Get:

Adam Conley
Evan Fitterer
Pompey or Jerar

That would probably tap out what we're able to spend this offseason, but you get your OF bat, you get a decent (but extremely overpaid) bullpen arm which are the things we are rumored to be looking for, and then you get a hold of one of those Dodgers Catchers that they have too much of, and Wong looks to be an Austin Barnes type except a much better hitter. Plays C/2B/3B. Will start in AAA.

There is surplus value upside with Joc ($18+), we'll assume Wong is a FV45 valuation ($8), and Kelly is negative (-$12). This wouldn't be a pure dump move.

Conley is nothing, and Fitterar and Jerar/Pompey are maybe worth $3 combined. To get to $15+ million in surplus value for those 3, you're talking Neidert/Rogers/Garret, Scott/Nunez/Devers/Lewin/Misner, Fitterer, and Encarnacion/Palacios/Soriano/Mokma, in a 4-3. I suspect that's a price not to be spent.

Take out Wong. He's the problem as you have to match him with the "Scott" tier and improve the first player.

I would think it would be something like:

Joc, Kelly
Osiris, Fitterer, Mokma (all non 40 man options for 2-3 years)

Dodgers swing for the fences with upside in a cash savings of $29 million. I think I'd do that without a Joc extension and offer him a QFA if he's good. They either get him for a few years, or he turns back into one of those prospects. Likewise with Kelly, if they eat some of his salary, he'll turn back into a Mokma level prospect too.

This would be a good deal I think. But the Dodgers would be smarter to just sell Joc as-is and not tie Kelly to him. This is what we always bitch about - don't sell low to save money.

[Nick]

Well I guess it all depends on how desperate they are to get rid of that Joe Kelly contract. I just want to see them getting creative and using their ability to spend money right now because of a laughably low payroll to improve the club both now and for the future. Which I will give them credit, they did that with Villar, but I want to see more. The Hat Trick for me would be, claiming an expensive but talented guy off waivers (Villar) sign or trade for and extend an OF power bat (Joc, Castellanos, Ozuna) and then eat a particularly shitty contract to accumulate more quality prospects.

[lou]

Well I guess it all depends on how desperate they are to get rid of that Joe Kelly contract. I just want to see them getting creative and using their ability to spend money right now because of a laughably low payroll to improve the club both now and for the future. Which I will give them credit, they did that with Villar, but I want to see more. The Hat Trick for me would be, claiming an expensive but talented guy off waivers (Villar) sign or trade for and extend an OF power bat (Joc, Castellanos, Ozuna) and then eat a particularly shitty contract to accumulate more quality prospects.

You're speaking to the choir there. The best move the Marlins ever did was pay Hampton to not pitch here. I'm all about doing something like that again.

I think Wil Myers is that contract. He himself is a buy low with real upside (he was good in 2018). Right handed and can play multiple positions. If San Diego throws in some bucks ($15 million), I think you can ask for 2-3 guys we really like from them. It's another Neidert/Garret and Devers/Nunez/Osiris situation fast. Send them say Stanek too, and you probably get 3 good ones from them.

I also like the idea of Rizzo/Chatwood and going for broke trading them Bleday/Sanchez, Lewin, Jerar, and Urena in a real big boy trade. That saves the Cubs over $35 million, not including the club controlled years they'll get from the other guys. Marlins get the hometown star, they make a really tough trade, but it opens up money to sign Bryant or Baez which makes a lot more sense for them.

[lou]

And just like that: Padres will attach prospects for Myers - https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/1204229791857008640

Not sure what they are thinking, but I can think of a lot of ways to make this one work with their farm system without asking for their top 5 players

[tjfla]

And just like that: Padres will attach prospects for Myers - https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/1204229791857008640

Not sure what they are thinking, but I can think of a lot of ways to make this one work with their farm system without asking for their top 5 players

Top 5? Shit their system so deep u could go Top 10. Ask for

Myers
1 of SP Morejon,Baez or Lawson
1 of C Campusano,MIF Ruiz,MIF Arias

I would be all over a Myers,Morejon,Ruiz or Arias and Comp A Pick for Urena or Conley

Yep and we have talked to them. One thing with SD is however they arent looking to make a splash in FA like past few years so they really dont have to make a trade. They would LOVE to but unlike other teams who are looking at FA right now they aren't

Probably 1 of my favorite salary dump trades I could think of. Problem is unless SD needs $ to sign a FA they really dont need to do anything

Also probably would happen AFTER Rule 5 draft as SD has lots of guys who are in it.

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Well I guess it all depends on how desperate they are to get rid of that Joe Kelly contract. I just want to see them getting creative and using their ability to spend money right now because of a laughably low payroll to improve the club both now and for the future. Which I will give them credit, they did that with Villar, but I want to see more. The Hat Trick for me would be, claiming an expensive but talented guy off waivers (Villar) sign or trade for and extend an OF power bat (Joc, Castellanos, Ozuna) and then eat a particularly shitty contract to accumulate more quality prospects.

They arent. They wanna move cash IF Rendon wants to come but they can move cash by trading Joc/Kike or Pollock. IF u get Rendon u move Turner to 2B and OF and they don't have space for Joc/Kike.

Joc/Kike/FV40 for Conley,Jerar and a younger arm

It would be like half salary dump/half talent trade. As Joc/Kike would help them afford Rendon but they could still afford him if they don't deal him

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You're speaking to the choir there. The best move the Marlins ever did was pay Hampton to not pitch here. I'm all about doing something like that again.

I think Wil Myers is that contract. He himself is a buy low with real upside (he was good in 2018). Right handed and can play multiple positions. If San Diego throws in some bucks ($15 million), I think you can ask for 2-3 guys we really like from them. It's another Neidert/Garret and Devers/Nunez/Osiris situation fast. Send them say Stanek too, and you probably get 3 good ones from them.

I also like the idea of Rizzo/Chatwood and going for broke trading them Bleday/Sanchez, Lewin, Jerar, and Urena in a real big boy trade. That saves the Cubs over $35 million, not including the club controlled years they'll get from the other guys. Marlins get the hometown star, they make a really tough trade, but it opens up money to sign Bryant or Baez which makes a lot more sense for them.

Looks like they might just end up trading Bryant

3B
LA-Rendon
Texas-Donaldson
Philly/Atl?

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Why are we out of the bidding, though? Because we are too close to the salary cap?

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I wish we had guys like Kike.



No but seriously, I was born in LA and I watch a lot of Dodgers baseball and I totally agree with you.

Cause Castellanos aint worth 6/100+.

They like 3 or 4 years

[lou]

Top 5? Shit their system so deep u could go Top 10. Ask for

Myers
1 of SP Morejon,Baez or Lawson
1 of C Campusano,MIF Ruiz,MIF Arias

I would be all over a Myers,Morejon,Ruiz or Arias and Comp A Pick for Urena or Conley

Yep and we have talked to them. One thing with SD is however they arent looking to make a splash in FA like past few years so they really dont have to make a trade. They would LOVE to but unlike other teams who are looking at FA right now they aren't

Probably 1 of my favorite salary dump trades I could think of. Problem is unless SD needs $ to sign a FA they really dont need to do anything

Also probably would happen AFTER Rule 5 draft as SD has lots of guys who are in it.

Campusano is probably a bit much, and I think they'll be hesitant to move a Morejon even if the math makes sense, but I could see something like:

Myers
Ruiz/Arias/Miller
Hunt (2022 catcher, they have Mejia, Hedges, and Campusano)
Comp A
$15+ million

for a prospect outside Marlins top 30, or send them Conley/Urena and get something a little better with one of those players/cash

[tjfla]

Campusano is probably a bit much, and I think they'll be hesitant to move a Morejon even if the math makes sense, but I could see something like:

Myers
Ruiz/Arias/Miller
Hunt (2022 catcher, they have Mejia, Hedges, and Campusano)
Comp A
$15+ million

for a prospect outside Marlins top 30, or send them Conley/Urena and get something a little better with one of those players/cash

Agreed just was throwing names out there

Myers
MIF Prospect(Got 3 or 4)
SP Prospect(Got 4 or 5 in that #10-18 Range-Morejon and Baez are Cuban)
Comp A Pick
Cash

for

Conley or Urena IF interested OR DSL guy and AAA RP pitcher type

Seems to make most sense

Nothing is really close on bats is what I heard. They are looking at so many options its crazy. FA/Trades/Salary Dumps. Remember they really only have space for 1 maybe 2 IF Rule 5 guy so they dont wanna make quick decision

RP Arms on the other hand is different story. They are waiting for Romo to decide(should be today) then soon as he decides they will either add another arm in Rule 5(like guys from Houston-no surprise HAHA and SD) or get more aggressive on Cishek,Joe Smith and Treinen. Joe Smith is the Romo backup plan btw

Rule 5 they are looking at C Higgins,RP arms from Houston/SD and high end MIF/OF prospects. Something to watch for is if they try to open up a 40 man spot by DFA Moran or Wallach before Thursday might mean they are going for 2 in Rule 5(NO decisions yet)

[Nick]

I think I'd have to get a player in the Campusano/Morejon/Weathers range to take on that much money with Wil Myers.

[tjfla]

I think I'd have to get a player in the Campusano/Morejon/Weathers range to take on that much money with Wil Myers.

Morejon,Weathers,Baez,Lawson are all in the 10-18 range all sites have different opinions. Just depends on what type of arm they are looking for as all 4 are totally different

10-18 in SD system is Top 7 in most others

SD would be throwing in cash too and the Comp A pick is valuable

Name I like is Hudson Potts but like Campusano doubt they would trade him and SD has so many IF prospects I wouldnt push the issue

IF they do something with SD it prolly will be AFTER the Rule 5 draft however so days away

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Talking about Rule 5

Here is the arm they are looking hard at. 25 yr old with injury concerns

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...ching/2019/ALL

However this is the arm they really wanted BEFORE Houston got wind of it an added him to 40 man

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...ching/2019/ALL

This is the arm I would take if they go RP route

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...ching/2019/ALL

ALL 3 are in Houston system!!!

[fish16]

Why are we out of the bidding, though? Because we are too close to the salary cap?

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I wish we had guys like Kike.



No but seriously, I was born in LA and I watch a lot of Dodgers baseball and I totally agree with you.

We’re out of the bidding because you don’t overpay guys just because you happen to have a low payroll at the time. Terrible teams give out clear overpays because of current salary obligations. Well run teams never give out contracts that are blatant overpays because they happen to have a cleared salary sheet for the next few years. Not doing so would just lead you back to the point where you’re paying way too much for merely average players like prado, Chen, Ziegler, tazawa, etc