2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

I would do Peralta,Tomas and Comp A pick for Urena,Jerar and mid level arm by thats about it.

They wouldnt do guys like Neidert,Cabrera,Monte which is why nothing ever came of it

The thing with Tomas is they got the cash. IF they get him he wouldn't play but the Comp A #34 could turn into 2 or 3 prospects so u would be doing a trade like this

Arizona-Urena/Jerar/Alberto Guerrero
Miam-Peralta/Tomas and 2 or 3 prospects in draft

This makes -0- sense to me, but hey let's do math.

Peralta and Tomas are going to cost $27 million dollars. Subtract Urena's money, and this is $22+ million dollars. Tomas is worthless, Peralta is probably a 2 WAR player, Urena a 1 WAR player, so just taking those two on right now and sending them back Urena, creates at least negative $15 million in surplus value. Adding in Jerar and another fringe prospect probably moves that to around a negative $18 deficit for the Marlins.

So this is beyond idiotic for the Marlins if the then don't recoup $18 million in prospects (based on a surplus value analysis).

This is receiving one FV50 pitching prospect ($21) and giving them back another FV40 guy at minimum - Arizona has none so moving on.

FV45+ hitters are worth $8 - They have one. Patino, an 18 year old CF. They have 3 better CF in system right now, so he's expendable for sure.
FV45+ pitcher's are worth $6. They have four of these guys. They can ask for one of them for sure, likely the ones farthest away - Malone and Waltson
Then that Comp A pick probably turns into a FV45/40 prospect, so that's probably fair to call "$4"

So in this insane bizzaro world trade, it would be:

D. Peralta, T. Perez, two guys in Arizona's top 8-12 prospects ETA 2024, and a 1st round comp pick (Marlins payroll +$22, and extra draft expenses)
for
Urena, Jerar, Outside top 30 arm

I'm not sure how that works out, but sure? They could sign an OF I guess as they'd REALLY need one in this scenario? I guess the Marlins are improving their farm by absorbing Tomas $17 million?

It would make more sense to offer them Urena and Cooper/Ramirez, and ask for Peralta, Perez, one of their three FV50 CF, and the comp pick.

Cooper/Ramirez can play LF for them now, and they can use saved money on RF. That math can add up much easier.

Peralta, Tomas, Caroll/A. Thomas, Comp A
for
Urena, Cooper/Ramirez, maybe a throw in or Jerar

Anyways. Yay boredom

[tjfla]

This makes -0- sense to me, but hey let's do math.

Peralta and Tomas are going to cost $27 million dollars. Subtract Urena's money, and this is $22+ million dollars. Tomas is worthless, Peralta is probably a 2 WAR player, Urena a 1 WAR player, so just taking those two on right now and sending them back Urena, creates at least negative $15 million in surplus value. Adding in Jerar and another fringe prospect probably moves that to around a negative $18 deficit for the Marlins.

So this is beyond idiotic for the Marlins if the then don't recoup $18 million in prospects (based on a surplus value analysis).

This is receiving one FV50 pitching prospect ($21) and giving them back another FV40 guy at minimum - Arizona has none so moving on.

FV45+ hitters are worth $8 - They have one. Patino, an 18 year old CF. They have 3 better CF in system right now, so he's expendable for sure.
FV45+ pitcher's are worth $6. They have four of these guys. They can ask for one of them for sure, likely the ones farthest away - Malone and Waltson
Then that Comp A pick probably turns into a FV45/40 prospect, so that's probably fair to call "$4"

So in this insane bizzaro world trade, it would be:

D. Peralta, T. Perez, two guys in Arizona's top 8-12 prospects ETA 2024, and a 1st round comp pick (Marlins payroll +$22, and extra draft expenses)
for
Urena, Jerar, Outside top 30 arm

I'm not sure how that works out, but sure? They could sign an OF I guess as they'd REALLY need one in this scenario? I guess the Marlins are improving their farm by absorbing Tomas $17 million?

It would make more sense to offer them Urena and Cooper/Ramirez, and ask for Peralta, Perez, one of their three FV50 CF, and the comp pick.

Cooper/Ramirez can play LF for them now, and they can use saved money on RF. That math can add up much easier.

Peralta, Tomas, Caroll/A. Thomas, Comp A
for
Urena, Cooper/Ramirez, maybe a throw in or Jerar

Anyways. Yay boredom

Like said its far off and don't expect it to happen but Miami wants that draft pool $ so always a chance. #34 pick $ could end up being FV50 and 2 FV40 guys however

More likely sign a FA and maybe Bird/Shaw to Milb deals

RP on list are Romo,Cishek.Betances,Yimi Garcia

[lou]

Like said its far off and don't expect it to happen but Miami wants that draft pool $ so always a chance. #34 pick $ could end up being FV50 and 2 FV40 guys however

More likely sign a FA and maybe Bird/Shaw to Milb deals

RP on list are Romo,Cishek.Betances,Yimi Garcia

Actually, it kind of makes sense to do it with Cooper, and if they say kick in $2 million (which basically signs you Bird or Shaw).

D. Peralta, Tomas, Patino (FV45+ CF, 18 years old), Walston (FV45+ Comp 1st Rd. Pick 2018), Comp 1 Pick 2020, $2 million dollars
for
Urena, Cooper. No one else.

This decreases Arizona payroll by $20 million to sign a LF/RF and another arm as they have their other starting spots covered. The 3 prospects don't matter to them in that scenario as they are 23/24 guys and Cooper is cheap for a few years to just hit somewhere.

Marlins get Peralta through July to have a sneakily solid lineup, Tomas for a hope and prayer, multiple prospects which is the real reason why they do this, and can take a try on Shaw which is a great idea. Marlins SP would be skeptical as holy hell, but this is a $75 million team:

Alfaro, Wallach
Aguilar, Shaw
Diaz
Rojas
Villar, Tomas
D. Peralta
Berti, Sierra
Anderson, H. Ramirez
(Brinson AAA and if Tomas sucks call him up and DFA Tomas as who cares)

Those dudes could easily post 20 WAR

You'd (hope) they'd sign 2 more pitchers to help with innings in this scenario. They'd actually look good if they got a 4/5 innings eater and another veteran reliever?

I can get behind that if Arizona would give up the 3 young prospects.

So many moving parts though versus.... you can just sign Castellanos if you're adding $20 million.

[rmc523]

Actually, it kind of makes sense to do it with Cooper, and if they say kick in $2 million (which basically signs you Bird or Shaw).

D. Peralta, Tomas, Patino (FV45+ CF, 18 years old), Walston (FV45+ Comp 1st Rd. Pick 2018), Comp 1 Pick 2020, $2 million dollars
for
Urena, Cooper. No one else.

This decreases Arizona payroll by $20 million to sign a LF/RF and another arm as they have their other starting spots covered. The 3 prospects don't matter to them in that scenario as they are 23/24 guys and Cooper is cheap for a few years to just hit somewhere.

Marlins get Peralta through July to have a sneakily solid lineup, Tomas for a hope and prayer, multiple prospects which is the real reason why they do this, and can take a try on Shaw which is a great idea. Marlins SP would be skeptical as holy hell, but this is a $75 million team:

Alfaro, Wallach
Aguilar, Shaw
Diaz
Rojas
Villar, Tomas
D. Peralta
Berti, Sierra
Anderson, H. Ramirez
(Brinson AAA and if Tomas sucks call him up and DFA Tomas as who cares)

Those dudes could easily post 20 WAR

You'd (hope) they'd sign 2 more pitchers to help with innings in this scenario. They'd actually look good if they got a 4/5 innings eater and another veteran reliever?

I can get behind that if Arizona would give up the 3 young prospects.

So many moving parts though versus.... you can just sign Castellanos if you're adding $20 million.

I'd rather sign Castellanos lol.

---

That said, I'd rather your proposal than whatever garbage was proposed before - why are we giving up guys to take money off their hands? lol. I know the draft picks, but come on. We'd be doing them a favor with what was proposed before.

[lou]

I'd rather sign Castellanos lol.

---

That said, I'd rather your proposal than whatever garbage was proposed before - why are we giving up guys to take money off their hands? lol. I know the draft picks, but come on. We'd be doing them a favor with what was proposed before.

Right, it's just easier to sign a free agent.

I mean, I'd rather take on Tomas WITHOUT Peralta involved and do a trade like:

Tomas, Better prospects
Urena

If you're going to eat dead money - commit to eating it and don't have Peralta attached as he's actually good and somewhat valuable.

I think it's very easy for the Marlins to ask them for one of their FV50 prospects and swinging for the fences again with the Arizona farm system in exchange for Tomas.

And why stop there - do it with Rusney Castillo too and ask for two of their top 3-10 prospects.

I'm all about being the Miami Dolphins and buying young guys with the payroll. That's as fine as front loading Castellanos.

[tjfla]

I hate the Rays in fact they should prolly move to Montreal BUT damn these guys know how to draft and make trades

Rays-Renfroe,Xavier Edwards,Another Prospect
SD-Pham and Cronenworth

Trade OF in same category and an older MIF which they have 10 of for high end prospect and a younger bat they can trade eventually

Crazy to think SD could have had JT but wouldnt trade Urias or Edwards LY and this year both gone

- - - - - - - - - -

I'd rather sign Castellanos lol.

---

That said, I'd rather your proposal than whatever garbage was proposed before - why are we giving up guys to take money off their hands? lol. I know the draft picks, but come on. We'd be doing them a favor with what was proposed before.

There was no proposal. Just different packages being discussed-Miami wants Peralta and that pick. Arizona asked for ML ready/close to ready SP and replacement OF for Peralta(but could NOT agree on names) Miami came back and said we will also take Tomas IF pick is included if needed

Miami wants Peralta but the #34 pick plus savings for #3 IF they dont take 1 of the 3 elite guy could net them some more high end prospects. Pretty much how TB/Houston used to do it when they would draft 3 1st Rd picks in Top 4 Rds

[lou]

I hate the Rays in fact they should prolly move to Montreal BUT damn these guys know how to draft and make trades

Rays-Renfroe,Xavier Edwards,Another Prospect
SD-Pham and Cronenworth

Trade OF in same category and an older MIF which they have 10 of for high end prospect and a younger bat they can trade eventually

Crazy to think SD could have had JT but wouldnt trade Urias or Edwards LY and this year both gone

- - - - - - - - - -



There was no proposal. Just different packages being discussed-Miami wants Peralta and that pick. Arizona asked for ML ready/close to ready SP and replacement OF for Peralta(but could NOT agree on names) Miami came back and said we will also take Tomas IF pick is included if needed

Miami wants Peralta but the #34 pick plus savings for #3 IF they dont take 1 of the 3 elite guy could net them some more high end prospects. Pretty much how TB/Houston used to do it when they would draft 3 1st Rd picks in Top 4 Rds

That is really dumb from SD with JT.

I actually hate that move for both of them. Rays are win-now and this doesn't help them even if it works on paper. When are they going to try and really go for it? I suspect this will look better at the end of the offseason though as another move has to be coming. And for SD, that is too much for a practical rental. Whatever.

Still think DBacks idea is dumb, I'm not just saying I like taking on bad contracts for prospects just as much as frontloading Castellanos/Ozuna. Use the payroll as an asset. That's all I ask.

[fish16]

Am I mixing guys up or was Edwards one of the top picks in last years draft? Or was he the guy from the year before from north broward?

- - - - - - - - - -

Sorry I was thinking about abrams

- - - - - - - - - -

The rays are so fucking good at buying low and selling high. Their management is consistently phenomenal

[lou]

Along the lines of San Diego going for it now, Wil Myers makes 3/$61 and I bet they'd love to get out of that with Pham, Grisham, Margot, and Cordero (with Trammell coming fast).

Wil has been a 1 WAR player for 3 seasons, so his surplus value is probably like negative $35+ million. "Yikes."

That being said, he's kind of a perfect right handed compliment for the Marlins that can play all over, has some pop, and wouldn't necessarily need everyday time. He isn't bad and is 29 next year. I think he could be a good 400+ PA player and could be a real buy low as he still has upside.

San Diego has a rich farm system. I think there is a combination here where the Padres send over some money and 2-3 prospects, and the Marlins send back a token player in a pure salary dump. This helps San Diego's 40 man crunch issue too. Maybe something like:

Marlins
Wil Myers
Ryan Weathers (2018 1st rounder, lefty arm) or Adrian Morejon (Cuban, big arm)
Esteury Ruiz (exposed to Rule V now and could lose, Marlins have space to keep in minors. Would be their top 3B prospect)
Owen Miller (ascending prospect, right handed 2B/SS to presumably backup the lefties longterm)
$15 million dollars

Padres
Someone like Zach King or Chris Mokma (after 10th round pick, but better than what they gave the Orioles)

This is a pure salary dump for SD, and the Marlins are taking on $45 million to get the equivalent of Cabrera/Neidert, Osiris, and Nunez/Devers. Plus whatever Myers is going to do.

This makes way more sense to me than 1 year Peralta and even deader money with Y. Tomas.

I bet San Diego would run to do something like that and the Marlins payroll situation wouldn't be radically impacted, especially considering getting younger talent.

[rmc523]

I hate the Rays in fact they should prolly move to Montreal BUT damn these guys know how to draft and make trades

Rays-Renfroe,Xavier Edwards,Another Prospect
SD-Pham and Cronenworth

Trade OF in same category and an older MIF which they have 10 of for high end prospect and a younger bat they can trade eventually

Crazy to think SD could have had JT but wouldnt trade Urias or Edwards LY and this year both gone

- - - - - - - - - -



There was no proposal. Just different packages being discussed-Miami wants Peralta and that pick. Arizona asked for ML ready/close to ready SP and replacement OF for Peralta(but could NOT agree on names) Miami came back and said we will also take Tomas IF pick is included if needed

Miami wants Peralta but the #34 pick plus savings for #3 IF they dont take 1 of the 3 elite guy could net them some more high end prospects. Pretty much how TB/Houston used to do it when they would draft 3 1st Rd picks in Top 4 Rds

I'm using "packages being discussed" and "proposal" are the same thing lol. It may have not been a formal offer but it's still a proposed deal.

Along the lines of San Diego going for it now, Wil Myers makes 3/$61 and I bet they'd love to get out of that with Pham, Grisham, Margot, and Cordero (with Trammell coming fast).

Wil has been a 1 WAR player for 3 seasons, so his surplus value is probably like negative $35+ million. "Yikes."

That being said, he's kind of a perfect right handed compliment for the Marlins that can play all over, has some pop, and wouldn't necessarily need everyday time. He isn't bad and is 29 next year. I think he could be a good 400+ PA player and could be a real buy low as he still has upside.

San Diego has a rich farm system. I think there is a combination here where the Padres send over some money and 2-3 prospects, and the Marlins send back a token player in a pure salary dump. This helps San Diego's 40 man crunch issue too. Maybe something like:

Marlins
Wil Myers
Ryan Weathers (2018 1st rounder, lefty arm) or Adrian Morejon (Cuban, big arm)
Esteury Ruiz (exposed to Rule V now and could lose, Marlins have space to keep in minors. Would be their top 3B prospect)
Owen Miller (ascending prospect, right handed 2B/SS to presumably backup the lefties longterm)
$15 million dollars

Padres
Someone like Zach King or Chris Mokma (after 10th round pick, but better than what they gave the Orioles)

This is a pure salary dump for SD, and the Marlins are taking on $45 million to get the equivalent of Cabrera/Neidert, Osiris, and Nunez/Devers. Plus whatever Myers is going to do.

This makes way more sense to me than 1 year Peralta and even deader money with Y. Tomas.

I bet San Diego would run to do something like that and the Marlins payroll situation wouldn't be radically impacted, especially considering getting younger talent.

I threw out the idea of Wil Myers a while back.

I'm just not understanding why they want Peralta, who is a FA after the season.

[lou]

I'm using "packages being discussed" and "proposal" are the same thing lol. It may have not been a formal offer but it's still a proposed deal.



I threw out the idea of Wil Myers a while back.

I'm just not understanding why they want Peralta, who is a FA after the season.

Yep - and it's a good idea. Assuming SD eats something as absorbing $60 is a lot, and the prospect package around it is reasonable.

Strausburg is from San Diego remember. They could use some money.

[fish16]

Seeing Pineda got two years 20 million from the twins. We should have tried to out bid that. Would have been the perfect addition to the middle of the rotation for two years

[lou]

Just looked at SD payroll.

It's around $150 million (somehow) in 2020 with Pham, and then shoots down to around $85 in 21/22.

If they shed Myers, all of those go down $20 million and they can really pack in SS salary in 21/22 and have him cheap in 2020.

It makes so much sense for them.

Screw them for the prospects and they can sign Strausburg.

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Seeing Pineda got two years 20 million from the twins. We should have tried to out bid that. Would have been the perfect addition to the middle of the rotation for two years

Negative. Way too much per year and no way a second year.

[fish16]

Lol pineda for two years is too much at 10-12 per year but you’re gonna give defensive liabilities and above average bats like castellanos 15 million a year despite cheap veteran bats being available every year. Sounds good

[lou]

Lol pineda for two years is too much at 10-12 per year but you’re gonna give defensive liabilities and above average bats like castellanos 15 million a year despite cheap veteran bats being available every year. Sounds good

Pineda is turning 31 and has pitched 250 innings in the last 3 seasons. He's good when he's healthy for sure, but is an ENORMOUS risk. Haven't we seen this with Volquez already?

Castellanos is turning 28 and has hit .295/.345/.515 the last 2 fully healthy seasons, averaging a shade under 3 WAR despite the defense.

This isn't remotely close and not worth my time.