2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[rmc523]

What's even the point?

[lou]

Agreed on Anderson, I was the one literally arguing with you that they should have traded him, I was talking about most of their other moves though in terms of guys in the roster bubble and who they have kept vs who they haven’t kept. Just has been some weird choices like Wittgren and others. But again they know more than me who is just looking at pure stats vs stuff and their actions in the locker room.

I think that Anderson Richards move is going to be an amazing move long term and one that works out very nicely for both sides. If there is going to be a team who can use Richards absolutely perfectly it will be Tampa

To note about Anderson, never in my wildest dreams could I imagine Brian Schales and an independent league pitcher, could turn into a top 40 prospect in baseball and a good reliever with 4 years of control.

Wittgren was really dumb though.

[fish16]

Avisail Garcia for anything more than a minimal 1 year deal is such a stupid way to spend money with other guys still on the board. He is awful. The definition of a negligible addition. Would be beyond fucking stupid for more than a one year very minimal deal. He’s a truly replacement level player if there’s ever been one

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To note about Anderson, never in my wildest dreams could I imagine Brian Schales and an independent league pitcher, could turn into a top 40 prospect in baseball and a good reliever with 4 years of control.

Wittgren was really dumb though.

Yup, and that was my big thing with him. If you can flip him into a legit lineup piece you do it every time. That was a phenomenal move no matter how Sanchez works out.

[Namaste]

Avisail Garcia for anything more than a minimal 1 year deal is such a stupid way to spend money with other guys still on the board. He is awful. The definition of a negligible addition. Would be beyond fucking stupid for more than a one year very minimal deal. He’s a truly replacement level player if there’s ever been one

4.2 WAR in 2017 and 1.8 WAR in 2019. The epitome of awful.

[Lee Stone]

4.2 WAR in 2017 and 1.8 WAR in 2019. The epitome of awful.

Last season, the Marlins got a cumulative -3.3 WAR from the LF position. That was the worst LF rating in baseball. Miami's CF position contributed even less, a -3.6. Cumulatively, our OF rated -7.9 WAR. THAT was the epitome of awful. (The bullpen WAR of -5.6 was only the second worst in baseball.)

Baseball Reference Projection for Avasail Garcia:

Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel
2020 Proj. 29 504 462 63 128 22 3 20 68 6 3 31 119 .277 .329 .468 .796 216 12 6 0 3 3 83%

Nothing to get all that excited about ... but certainly not embarrassing. He might even be somewhat similar to Brian Anderson offensively. In CF, you might get a 2 WAR from Berti if he's your regular. If you got the same from Garcia in LF, that's a total of 4 WAR in 2020 - a plus 11 game difference from just those two positions.

[fish16]

4.2 WAR in 2017 and 1.8 WAR in 2019. The epitome of awful.

Those are two out of 6 or 7 years. The remainder of his career outside of that he has a combined .2 war.

[fauowls44]

I think that Avisail Garcia (on a 1 or 2 year deal) would be an upgrade for this roster. He has good power, had a good year last year, and still has some upside at 28. He just wouldn't be my first choice, but I see why teams would be interested. You can get him much cheaper than Castellanos and Ozuna but the key is he has to stay healthy.

That said, I would like to see them make a legitimate run at Castellanos first before turning to the next tier of FAs like Garcia.

[Lee Stone]

I think that Avisail Garcia (on a 1 or 2 year deal) would be an upgrade for this roster. He has good power, had a good year last year, and still has some upside at 28. He just wouldn't be my first choice, but I see why teams would be interested. You can get him much cheaper than Castellanos and Ozuna but the key is he has to stay healthy.

That said, I would like to see them make a legitimate run at Castellanos first before turning to the next tier of FAs like Garcia.

I think you have to view it like this: Would you rather have Castellanos' offense and defensive liability for a projected $30 million over the next two years or the bats and better defense of both Garcia and Dickerson for those two years for the same total dollars?

[Lee Stone]

This from MLBTraderumors article on potential catcher trade targets:

Another interesting possibility is Jorge Alfaro of the Marlins. The Miami club may prefer to keep him in hopes that he can tap into some upside, and undoubtedly won’t sell low, but he’d also represent a solid target for clubs looking for more offensive punch. He could be seen as a semi-regular right out of the chutes who might yet develop into an everyday type.

[tjfla]

I think that Avisail Garcia (on a 1 or 2 year deal) would be an upgrade for this roster. He has good power, had a good year last year, and still has some upside at 28. He just wouldn't be my first choice, but I see why teams would be interested. You can get him much cheaper than Castellanos and Ozuna but the key is he has to stay healthy.

That said, I would like to see them make a legitimate run at Castellanos first before turning to the next tier of FAs like Garcia.

The issue is if they wait for Castellanos to drop his price Avisail is likely gone already. They would be cool with Avisail and Castellanos but don't wanna miss out on both. Avisail would be 2 yr(maybe 2 yr plus option)

If they got Avisail they would still be in on Castellanos(he can play 1B/RF) while Avisail is LF. The main problem is Boras right now-6/100+ he aint paying

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This from MLBTraderumors article on potential catcher trade targets:

Another interesting possibility is Jorge Alfaro of the Marlins. The Miami club may prefer to keep him in hopes that he can tap into some upside, and undoubtedly won’t sell low, but he’d also represent a solid target for clubs looking for more offensive punch. He could be seen as a semi-regular right out of the chutes who might yet develop into an everyday type.

Marlins will trade pretty much anyone on ML roster except BA or prospects like Isan if the offer is right. Alfaro for Top ML ready prospect and a stopgap C sure,Caleb for prospects sure,whoever else sure

With that said I havent heard Alfaro being talked about

Trade Alfaro for a Top 5-7 prospect,stopgap C and more(Only way they trade him is if overpay) than sign Jason Castro or trade for Barnhart/McCann possible

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Its like Urena and Brice. Do they wanna trade them not really BUT if a team calls offering draft pick/IFA and a prospect(exactly what Miami wants) they gone with Denbo driving them to airport himself

[fauowls44]

The issue is if they wait for Castellanos to drop his price Avisail is likely gone already. They would be cool with Avisail and Castellanos but don't wanna miss out on both. Avisail would be 2 yr(maybe 2 yr plus option)

If they got Avisail they would still be in on Castellanos(he can play 1B/RF) while Avisail is LF. The main problem is Boras right now-6/100+ he aint paying

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Marlins will trade pretty much anyone on ML roster except BA or prospects like Isan if the offer is right. Alfaro for Top ML ready prospect and a stopgap C sure,Caleb for prospects sure,whoever else sure

With that said I havent heard Alfaro being talked about

Trade Alfaro for a Top 5-7 prospect,stopgap C and more(Only way they trade him is if overpay) than sign Jason Castro or trade for Barnhart/McCann possible

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Its like Urena and Brice. Do they wanna trade them not really BUT if a team calls offering draft pick/IFA and a prospect(exactly what Miami wants) they gone with Denbo driving them to airport himself

Given the lack of C depth in the organization, I'm not trading Alfaro unless it's an extreme overpay. I can't see a team paying what it would take.

As for Garcia, apparently we aren't alone in pursuing him. I wouldn't get into a bidding war for him, but he would be an upgrade to this lineup:


Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Avisail Garcia said to have a decent market and it’s easy to see why. More affordable than top-tier OFs Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. Had 111 ops plus for Tampa Bay. Only 28 and has good upside.

[lou]

I think you have to view it like this: Would you rather have Castellanos' offense and defensive liability for a projected $30 million over the next two years or the bats and better defense of both Garcia and Dickerson for those two years for the same total dollars?

I'd rather have a cheap Castellanos in 2022 and 2023 and don't care what he is paid 2020 and 2021.

Contending window value.

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Those are two out of 6 or 7 years. The remainder of his career outside of that he has a combined .2 war.

But they were 2 of the last 3 years, was hurt a bit the other year, and is entering his prime and not 22.

Avisail is good. I am open to them signing him if they gamble on options.

Basically something like, if Avisail is going to make 2/$12 (MLBTR projection) in free agency, let's give Avisail 2/$16, and two club options on the back for say $8+ million each. Give him a little love up front, and gamble he is a 2 WAR player still when he is 30 and all of a sudden you have an awesome asset in 2022 and 2023.

These are the kind of things they should be doing. Create something out of nothing.

[rmc523]

Instead we'll get a move like signing Granderson for 5/50 bahaha.

[lou]

Given the lack of C depth in the organization, I'm not trading Alfaro unless it's an extreme overpay. I can't see a team paying what it would take.

I agree, sort of. He is pacing over a 2 WAR player over 550 PA (estimating less PA for a catcher but still on the top end as he is durable it seems and can handle workload). It's actually 2.4 WAR, but let's knock it down to 2 because the BABIP is high and he is due some average regression, even if we can expect some more power moving forward. I think that's a fair estimate for his "pre 30" years. Dude is young and is solid.

He has 4 years of control and as we saw with Realmuto, catchers make BULLSHIT in arbitration. Alfaro is probably going to cost around 4/$12-14 the next 4 seasons even if he slugs 30 HR here or there. If he's a 2 WAR player, you can easily make an argument he has a surplus value of $55-60 million. There is undeniable upside with the power and defense, and the floor will also be high considering the defense and contract price. He's valuable. This is about where Ozuna's value was at the time of trade. More than Dee Gordon for sure.

Using the Marlins current prospect as a hypothetical, I would expect this for him in a 3-1 trade:

L. Diaz/Scott/Nunez/Misner- an eye of the beholder FV50 hitting prospect
Neidert/Garret/Rogers/Guzman - an eye of the beholder FV50 pitching prospect
Stewart/Castano/Quijada/Vesia - A non-top prospect arm with no assurance of making it and outside a team's top 20-30

That's fair for him. Anything else, no thanks. Alfaro is pretty important to have a good catcher for the SP development. There is no reason to move him unless you get full projectable value.

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If they got Avisail they would still be in on Castellanos(he can play 1B/RF) while Avisail is LF. The main problem is Boras right now-6/100+ he aint paying

This actually plays into the Marlins hands if that is what Boras is doing, as everyone else is going to sign first because that ask is ridiculous, and he'll be last man standing like Grandal/Moustakas and have to settle for a 1 year deal with a contender to try again next year, or take the 4/$64+ something from the Marlins and choose the money.

We'll see what happens. I suspect they will just pay off debt, but it's nice to think they will act like a franchise and look to get better one day.

[Lee Stone]

Point of order, Lou. Don't you dare lump Alex Vesia with Stewart/Castano/Quijada! He's a relief star in waiting. Also, my view of Alfaro is tainted by the fact that I watched all the Marlin games last season.