2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[fish16]

Nether castellanos nor Ozuna are worth 4+ year deals. There’s nothing wrong with adding a couple moderately priced 2 or less year deals for the next few years to plug a few holes for
The time being until we can find a long term solution. It both gives the young guys quality players to look up to and emulate that are actually still good unlike a Martin Prado, and you do t completely shut the door on possibly contending if things move faster than anticipated. Not every signing has to be a core piece for the next 5 years, especially when there are only like 3 of those kinds of guys on the open market.

A guy like Donaldson for two years if he doesn’t have draft pick compensation attached is a great addition to add to a lineup of young guys who could use an Impact bat in the middle of the order without giving a guy 4+ years who is not worth it

[Nick]

It all depends on price. Ozuna would be 32 on the 4th year of this contract and Castellanos would be 31 so age is not really an issue, these should be their prime years. If you can get 4 years/$64 million for one of those guys frontload the contract at like $20-$20-$12-$12 it makes a lot of sense.

[tjfla]

I'd be incredibly disappointed if we sign Abreu. There's zero reason to even consider him with the QO.

I don't understand your Cooper/Japan comment. They can't just ship a guy to Japan? Why wouldn't they trade with any of the other 29 clubs?

Of course u can happens all the time. Guys get sold to Asian teams but in Cooper's case he would ask for release and just sign with them. Its a longshot but he has alot of interested from teams there

[lou]

Nether castellanos nor Ozuna are worth 4+ year deals. There’s nothing wrong with adding a couple moderately priced 2 or less year deals for the next few years to plug a few holes for
The time being until we can find a long term solution. It both gives the young guys quality players to look up to and emulate that are actually still good unlike a Martin Prado, and you do t completely shut the door on possibly contending if things move faster than anticipated. Not every signing has to be a core piece for the next 5 years, especially when there are only like 3 of those kinds of guys on the open market.

A guy like Donaldson for two years if he doesn’t have draft pick compensation attached is a great addition to add to a lineup of young guys who could use an Impact bat in the middle of the order without giving a guy 4+ years who is not worth it

For the guy railing about don't spend money for the sake of spending money, twice in this post you have advocated for spending money just for the sake of spending money. 2 year expensive deals to help in non-contending years? They need to plug holes with Romo/Walker types (i.e., not negative WAR Granderson, Chen, Herrera, and Prado players) for CHEAP (i.e. what the Twins did with CJ Cron), OR, create assets for a contending window which looks to be 2022 with the way things are going. You're just spending money to spend if you do anything else. If they whiff on Rendon/Ozuna/Castellanos, the absolute most you'd do is that Avisail 2/$12 deal just to have something tangible around to plug a hole. 2/$50 for Donaldson is absurd, ignoring he'd never play his twilight here.

Donaldson also got a qualifying offer.

- - - - - - - - - -

It all depends on price. Ozuna would be 32 on the 4th year of this contract and Castellanos would be 31 so age is not really an issue, these should be their prime years. If you can get 4 years/$64 million for one of those guys frontload the contract at like $20-$20-$12-$12 it makes a lot of sense.

Yep. If those dudes want $100 million, it's likely an easy pass. But I don't think they come in at those terms.

These guys are solid 2.5 WAR player floors in their prime years, with major hit tool upside in a good year. $16 million a year? Sure. They will easily produce more than 8 WAR over 4 years to make it a clear win and positive signing.

[tjfla]

Top 30 Prospects who have to be added before Nov 20

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospec...eline-coverage

Miami Marlins (7)
1) Sixto Sanchez, RHP
4) Jazz Chisholm, SS
6) Edward Cabrera, RHP
11) Nick Neidert, RHP
12) Lewin Diaz, 1B
26) Will Stewart, LHP
29) Humberto Mejia, RHP

[fish16]

Donaldson wouldn’t be spending money for the sake of spending money. It would be adding an all star level talent to a team with an already deep stable of good pitchers/pitching prospects and a handful of hitting prospects on the way within the next two years. It would be a great veteran addition that might enable you to move up your timeframe by a year if things work out and if not you have an all star level veteran talent surrounding your young guys and a possible trade chip at the 2021 deadline.

When I say spending money for the sake of spending money I mean 3+ years into the future for guys who aren’t anything special. I don’t give a shit about 1-2 year deals at any price point, it’s the giving of deals for 3+ years for guys who are barely above average now let alone 4 years down the line. Not that any of this matters right now any ways because Donaldson got the qualifying offer. But they absolutely should look into signing guys to big money deals for low years to maintain respectability and prepare for the possibility of a quicker rebuild than initially thought. Especially because I think our young pitching is some of the best in the league and I think it can carry us towards at least respectability in the not too distant future, if not more

[Nick]

I really don't think respectability is going to put butts in the seats. A playoff race might though. If we're signing guys to make our roster "more respectable" I think we're going about this the wrong way.

[fish16]

I really don't think respectability is going to put butts in the seats. A playoff race might though. If we're signing guys to make our roster "more respectable" I think we're going about this the wrong way.

My idea of respectability is in the wild card hunt into September

[rmc523]

Thank goodness. Abreu accepted the QO and will stay with the White Sox. They're also discussing a longer-term deal. So we can put that disaster scenario to rest.

Odorizzi accepted the Twins QO as well.

[lou]

Braves just paid a reliever 3/$40 (Smith, a good one). They gave up a draft pick.

In what world are some of you arguing an above average everyday player in Ozuna/Castellanos for 4/$60-70, and front loaded to help contending years, is a bad deal.

Perspective.

- - - - - - - - - -

Donaldson wouldn’t be spending money for the sake of spending money. It would be adding an all star level talent to a team with an already deep stable of good pitchers/pitching prospects and a handful of hitting prospects on the way within the next two years. It would be a great veteran addition that might enable you to move up your timeframe by a year if things work out and if not you have an all star level veteran talent surrounding your young guys and a possible trade chip at the 2021 deadline.

When I say spending money for the sake of spending money I mean 3+ years into the future for guys who aren’t anything special. I don’t give a shit about 1-2 year deals at any price point, it’s the giving of deals for 3+ years for guys who are barely above average now let alone 4 years down the line. Not that any of this matters right now any ways because Donaldson got the qualifying offer. But they absolutely should look into signing guys to big money deals for low years to maintain respectability and prepare for the possibility of a quicker rebuild than initially thought. Especially because I think our young pitching is some of the best in the league and I think it can carry us towards at least respectability in the not too distant future, if not more

It is the epitome of spending money to spend money. Donaldson is a final piece to a playoff roster on a short term deal - like the Braves did last year. Not giving a shit about 1-2 year deals is not using payroll as an asset - which is what low payroll teams need to do to create value.

You know when to spend big money 1-2 year deals? In 2022 when the team WITH Castellanos/Ozuna costs $55 million because you frontloaded them and Anderson.

[Lee Stone]

Braves just paid a reliever 3/$40 (Smith, a good one). They gave up a draft pick.

My delightful spin: Braves paid $40M for a 30-year-old lefty who never pitched nearly as well in the minors as Alex Vesia. Go Marlins!

[lou]

Braves just paid a reliever 3/$40 (Smith, a good one). They gave up a draft pick.

My delightful spin: Braves paid $40M for a 30-year-old lefty who never pitched nearly as well in the minors as Alex Vesia. Go Marlins!

I think the chances Vesia gets 6.9 career WAR is extremely low, but I am with you on the optimism

[tjfla]

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
14h
Marlins are considering Castellanos and Ozuna but may wind up looking to next OF tier. Avisail Garcia could fit as could Yasiel Puig (tho it’d be interesting to see him back playing for Mattingly).

Ozuna and Puig would be longshots but heard something last night on Ozuna. I dont know much about the pick crap but would have us signing him and then trying to trade for another pick. Alot of moving parts but guess u can say Ozuna is possible I guess????

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

I would still say Avisail Garcia or trade is #1 choice with Castellanos up there too IF he lowers demand from 6/100+ to 4/60 or so

[lou]

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
14h
Marlins are considering Castellanos and Ozuna but may wind up looking to next OF tier. Avisail Garcia could fit as could Yasiel Puig (tho it’d be interesting to see him back playing for Mattingly).

Ozuna and Puig would be longshots but heard something last night on Ozuna. I dont know much about the pick crap but would have us signing him and then trying to trade for another pick. Alot of moving parts but guess u can say Ozuna is possible I guess????

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

I would still say Avisail Garcia or trade is #1 choice with Castellanos up there too IF he lowers demand from 6/100+ to 4/60 or so

I'd sign Avisail for 2 years at a healthy clip if he'd agree to two option years on the back for $10 million each or so. He has paced as a 2.5 WAR player over 600 PA for 2017-2019, which includes a .1 WAR in 385 PA in 2018 which is just brutal. Of course he likely over achieved a lot in 2017, but he still did it.

Same line of thought - use your payroll and try and create an asset for 2022-2023. If Avisail maintains being a 2.5 WAR player, you did a good thing for 2022.

Past that no thanks. Just play Dean and wait for Monte and Sanchez.

[Lee Stone]

Personally, I'm intrigued by Miguel Andujar. He seems rather displaced in New York and the Yankees should be looking for pitching. Would a return to NY featuring Guzman, C Smith or Trevor Rogers and others work?

I think Andujar has about the highest offensive ceiling of any young player that the Marlins could acquire.