2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[rmc523]

Well they would wanna resign him. The thought process is trade for Betts talk extension all year and hope by end of year he buys into the "plan". He is gonna get paid and Marlins have tons of $$ to spend

Devers/OF and SP(NOT Top guy like Sixto/Cabrera/Garrett) is not a high price to pay for a Betts rental. Trade 3 guys all can easily be replaced(#3 pick for SP/Cappe for Devers/draft a College OF early)

You know.....

On the flip side, if you make the move to trade for him and as you get closer to the deadline, if it looks like he ABSOLUTELY won't take an extension, you could trade him to a contender that needs a bat and bring in a ton. The fanbase would likely not see it for what it is and say "look we traded another great player," but it could work.

[tjfla]

Everyone is going crazy about trading prospects. We have tons of depth and thats before the draft which we should add lots more 21/22 yr olds

SS Depth-Jazz/Devers/Torres(2B)/Nasim/Osiris/Dalvy/Salas/Cappe
OF Depth-Jesus/Monte/JJ/Brian Miller/VV/Jerar/Burdick/toolsy types like Stone Garrett/Thomas Jones/Scott/Pompey/Misner
SP Depth-After top 4 u got Rogers/Stewart/Guzman/Mejia. ML guys like Dugger,Elieser,Urena,Yamamoto

Just say u trade Jerar in Rd 2 or 2S u get a college OF same age and all,u trade Rogers u replace him with a SP same age with #3 pick. Next years draft is gonna be very very good. Tons of College players at top who are 21/22 already

I am with everyone about trading for rentals BUT we have the depth right now to take a chance. After this year we also are gonna have a 40 man crunch

[Nick]

Well they would wanna resign him. The thought process is trade for Betts talk extension all year and hope by end of year he buys into the "plan". He is gonna get paid and Marlins have tons of $$ to spend

Devers/OF and SP(NOT Top guy like Sixto/Cabrera/Garrett) is not a high price to pay for a Betts rental. Trade 3 guys all can easily be replaced(#3 pick for SP/Cappe for Devers/draft a College OF early)

C'mon, I don't care if Betts is a rental, it'll take more than Devers and Garrett/Rogers to get that trade done.

[Todd]

I think people on this board overrate Marlins prospects, players currently on the MLB roster, and the timetable for competing for even a wild card spot.

People point to the Astros losing 100 games for 3 seasons straight and be like "they did it", but they had-IMO-a lot more talent to build on organization wide when they started to pull out of it than the Marlins currently have.

[fauowls44]

I think people on this board overrate Marlins prospects, players currently on the MLB roster, and the timetable for competing for even a wild card spot.

People point to the Astros losing 100 games for 3 seasons straight and be like "they did it", but they had-IMO-a lot more talent to build on organization wide when they started to pull out of it than the Marlins currently have.

Isn't it also possible you are underrating the organizational talent? People on this board didn't put 7 Marlins prospects in the top 100 or decide the system ranks in the top 5 in MLB...people that rate prospects did that. I know that's not the end all, but that is how most judge organizational talent.

[tjfla]

C'mon, I don't care if Betts is a rental, it'll take more than Devers and Garrett/Rogers to get that trade done.

Did I ever say they would get him? All I am saying is they wanna try and would offer something like that. Boston has already let it been known they prefer to send JD and or Betts to NL. LAD are the favorites for Betts

[Nick]

Did I ever say they would get him? All I am saying is they wanna try and would offer something like that. Boston has already let it been known they prefer to send JD and or Betts to NL. LAD are the favorites for Betts

So you're saying our FO is stupid. Gotcha.

[Erick]

C'mon, I don't care if Betts is a rental, it'll take more than Devers and Garrett/Rogers to get that trade done.

You’re right, yes. Betts is worth a lot more than that.

[Lee Stone]

I feel pretty certain that any FA contract over maybe a couple million is off the table. The Rojas contract shocked me to be honest. I think the ownership group is anxious to pay down debt and is very aware that the team is more than a couple players away from being competitive.

[emkayseven]

I don't think so. I think that "second tier" guys like Puig, Castellanos, etc. are probably in play. I would hope someone like Wheeler is in play but I think with so many contenders looking for SP he probably ends up on Houston or something like that.

[lou]

I feel pretty certain that any FA contract over maybe a couple million is off the table. The Rojas contract shocked me to be honest. I think the ownership group is anxious to pay down debt and is very aware that the team is more than a couple players away from being competitive.

A lower payroll is NOT how you do that. Incremental viewership changes will (greatly) impact the TV deal - which is currently up in the air and to be negotiated - so they are heavily incentivized to establish a better culture now to hopefully start luring in more casual fans. More eyeballs on TV, the better a deal they can get. Likewise, a better product may convince a Barcardi to take the naming rights for the god damn stadium already as they can believe in the Marlins brand for the next 5-10 years.

You need to think big picture. Saving say, $25 million bucks on solely 2020 payroll does nothing for a longterm debt versus getting a more beneficial TV package, getting the naming rights done quicker, and other revenue streams, like the gate, selling more burgers, beer, and hats. Those things would add up. Creating FANS starts curing financial issues and that needs to stop being kicked down the road just because they aren't going to beat the Braves next year. This is also ignoring an $80-90 million payroll in 2020 would be bottom 5 in the sport, so there isn't a large difference between that and being bottom 2.

It's just irresponsible and short sighted to not invest into a better product right now, even if they'd max out at 75 wins as the kids are acknowledgedly young and the better ones will need 1-3 years to establish themselves at the MLB level. They can absolutely toe the line of not impacting future payroll with nearly all 1-2 year deals that won't be expensive (Which they did with Rojas which is a smart start. Next resign Castro for 2, Walker and Romo types for 1, keep Urena and Conley in arbitration, sign a 1 year SP rehab project like Alex Wood, etc.), and offer one "longterm" deal (4 years) to a second tier free agent like Castellanos or Wheeler. This is also ignoring, you may speed up the kids development by having a better team around them, and not Granderson, Prado, and Chen.

It's simply good for every aspect of their business on and off the field to act like a real franchise.

[lou]

I think people on this board overrate Marlins prospects, players currently on the MLB roster, and the timetable for competing for even a wild card spot.

People point to the Astros losing 100 games for 3 seasons straight and be like "they did it", but they had-IMO-a lot more talent to build on organization wide when they started to pull out of it than the Marlins currently have.

They had a lot more organizational talent, but it really boils down to two things. I think the current Braves are also a good analogy here.

The Astros had Altuve and Bregman. The Braves had Freddie and Acuna. That's a lot, even if only 2 players.

I look up and down these 3 rebuild examples and I think the Marlins have everything those franchises have on paper (or strengths elsewhere to even things out) except for those 2 superstar players to plop on the top of the longterm roster. The Marlins have no one with those upsides, unless two of Jazz, Sixto, Bleday, and Sanchez just explode into top 25 players in baseball. Which is very unlikely. We all probably agree here. I like those guys, I'm just not counting on them to win MVPs and drop 6-7 WAR seasons here and there.

So, the timetable? They have everything they need to succeed in 1-2 years even if the kids then take another 1-2 years to really catch their stride, but they will need to spend real free agency dollars (or trade from minor league depth) to secure 2-3 *STUDS* to plop on top of this. Payroll is going to be around $40-55 million 2020-2023 depending on who they keep, if they are smart and buyout Anderson and frontload the deal, etc. They have the flexibility to fill these gaps with dollars which is why I have a medium level of longterm confidence right now.

This is also why signing Castellanos isn't a big deal for 4 years. So that number for 20-23 shifts to around $55-65 million? Who cares. That won't prevent them from signing two $20+ million players and ideally trading multiple minor leaguers in a reverse-Yelich style trade where the Marlins are then getting a cheap stud for their depth. That's still a bottom 10-12 payroll in 2019 dollars. Again, maybe I am a bit idealistic with payroll, but I don't think they intend to be bottom 3-5 in it forever and I think asking them to be bottom 10-12 in a contending window is reasonable.

So overall, I agree with you the Marlins have a lot left to do as they are missing the literal 1 and 2 most important things for the rebuild, but I feel pretty confident about how things 3-20 look right now on paper. The big question here is what I am harping on right now - they have to use their payroll to fill the gaps. If they don't I'm with you this is going to take 5 more years as they need to keep drafting until they get Fernandez and Yelich again.

We'll see what happens. I'm cautiously optimistic.

[emkayseven]

TBH I worry that our rebuild is going to resemble the White Sox and Padres more than the Astros and Cubs for the reasons you mentioned, lou. At some point they NEED to get a top 20 player if not 2. There isn't one that I see in the system.

[tjfla]

Name who has popped up on Marlins list is Ian Desmond

NO not for talent but getting other stuff in the deal would be motivation. 15 in 2020/8 in 2021 and 2 million buyout in 2022 so 25 MILLION total

Can play 1B/LF/RF/SS(I guess??).

We would trade some fringe arm(RP?) and get Desmond and other stuff maybe IFA? 1A Comp pick in 2020? prospects? Farrrr off but something to watch IF they dont sign a bat this is possible

[lou]

TBH I worry that our rebuild is going to resemble the White Sox and Padres more than the Astros and Cubs for the reasons you mentioned, lou. At some point they NEED to get a top 20 player if not 2. There isn't one that I see in the system.

Yep. They absolutely need to ADD two stud 5+ WAR players for this to work. I think the Padres is a good example - they signed Machado a year early. White Sox too. They were in on Machado and Bryce, but they just couldn't pull it off. Those teams get it.

Castellanos/Wheeler type signing isn't this money over 4 years. They can still sign (or trade) for 1-2 Machados and 1-2 more Castellanos/Wheelers and spend on a $15-20 million a year veteran right now. And they are going to have to do that to compete.

Which is why RENDON or COLE is PERFECT this season if they can somehow pull that off, and then add the other guys in 2021. Which is presumably signing a SP, and then trading SP depth for another younger impact bat to round out whatever they need. I really hope Cole wins the World series, World series MVP, and Cy-Young, so he's accomplished everything on the bucket list and wants to max out money, in a NL pitching environment to shoot for the hall.

They have options. They can wait another year for the big acquisitions. I'm just saying, right now, they owe it to everyone to try and field a 70+ win team versus a 55+ win team. It won't hurt short or longterm.

But if they don't spend, this team is going nowhere and will be as good as the McCutchen pirates at most.

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Name who has popped up on Marlins list is Ian Desmond

NO not for talent but getting other stuff in the deal would be motivation. 15 in 2020/8 in 2021 and 2 million buyout in 2022 so 25 MILLION total

Can play 1B/LF/RF/SS(I guess??).

We would trade some fringe arm(RP?) and get Desmond and other stuff maybe IFA? 1A Comp pick in 2020? prospects? Farrrr off but something to watch IF they dont sign a bat this is possible

Absorbing that money to get prospects/IFA cash would be fantastic.

I could live with a Castellanos, Desmond (recoup prospects/IFA/pick), N. Walker, "another bench infielder," Romo-type, and keep Urena/Conley offseason.

Also, if you can give them more pitching and get a contract extension, I'll roll the dice Jon Gray becomes a top 10 SP out of the mountains.

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*Desmond was a relatively neutral defender in LF last year and his season numbers tanked dramatically because pathetic in CF. Just saying.