Bowden: Marlins Trade JT Realmuto to Phillies for Alfaro, Sanchez, Two Others

[Lee Stone]

It was truly a spectacular 134 innings thrown 2016-2018

I honestly didn't think anyone could find fault with Paddack.

[lou]

Sixto's elbow is perceived as an unusually high risk, right?

I understand how flukey all the elbow stuff is, but he's like a Lincecum kind of ticking time-bomb?

If you assume health this is a great top-heavy package. Probably should have gotten more on the throw in prospects, but Sixto was as good a centerpiece as any that was offered, realistically...?

As good for sure, probably only K. Tucker and Robles (if offered over the summer) are in the same top tier.

They definitely took BPA and are swinging for the fences

[Swifty]

As good for sure, probably only K. Tucker and Robles (if offered over the summer) are in the same top tier.

They definitely took BPA and are swinging for the fences

That elbow's really scary though, yes?

[Lee Stone]

1. Sixto Sanchez, RHP

Age: 20

Level: A+

ETA: 2021

46.2 IP, 2.51 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 24 K%, 6 BB%, .223 AVG

Here’s what Jason wrote for Sixto in his original Phillies blurb:

I love Sixto. My Twitter feed will attest to that. However, throughout my time watching Sixto develop in Clearwater, one thing has always worried me. Injury risk. Sixto was shut down after 46.2 IP due to elbow inflammation. That followed a delayed start to his season with pain near the collarbone. The Phillies had planned to send him to Arizona for the Fall League but pulled him right before the start of the AFL due to lingering elbow issues. I’m assuming the MRI is clean which leads me to think Thoracic Outlet may be the diagnosis. I wrote about TOS here if you’re curious as to why it can be difficult to diagnose. However, I’m not here to speculate and have no insider info on Sixto’s elbow.

So let’s talk about what I know. Sixto has struggled at times against older hitters due to his FB dominant sequencing. He will touch 101 mph regularly and also features a SL and CH. The SL is mid 80s with the CH clocking in at 90-91. In his final four starts before his injury, Sanchez was the best I had ever seen him. He had started mixing his off-speed early and often instead of attacking with the FB, showing improved command within the zone. While his walk numbers are low, Sanchez is a control over command guy at present. He just pumps strike after strike, often times catching too much plate which results in a lot of hard contact off his 80-grade FB.

There is reliever risk with Sanchez. Extreme reliever risk. Here is to hoping that whatever ailed him 2018 is past him because it’s been a treat to watch his development from thrower into pitcher.

[lou]

That elbow's really scary though, yes?

Yep.

But what do I know, I've thought Chris Sale should have exploded each of the last 5 years and he was high risk too.

[fauowls44]

Interesting take on the trade from The Ringer:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/2...-sixto-sanchez

[Ralph]

So now they need Jose Ureña/Caleb Smith/ to pop and Dan Straily to get his shit together and they’ll have some nice chips.

[lou]

So now they need Jose Ureña/Caleb Smith/ to pop and Dan Straily to get his shit together and they’ll have some nice chips.

Caleb Smith has 5 years of control. He's going nowhere.

Urena is interesting as they could be good in 2021 so there is incentive to keep him while he is gunning for arbitration amounts/FA contract. He could even be a 4 year buyout candidate if he looks good after this year. But in a perfect world, Sixto, Alcantara, Neidert, and Pablo/Gallen/Richards/Caleb turn into a legitimate SP foursome, which opens the door to move Urena for whatever and sign a "Robbie Ray/James Paxton" in 2021 and have a real nice rotation. Urena is definitely a wait and see what happens as he's on an upswing, but if someone offers a crazy deal, sure.

[Lee Stone]

Interesting take on the trade from The Ringer:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/2...-sixto-sanchez

Informed take from Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs. (Evidently, the Phillies had been shopping Sanchez all winter).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/phillies...r-mystery-box/

[emkayseven]

From what I've read, there were conditioning concerns within the organization.

Conditioning concerns don't really bother me. They also existed when we signed Livan...and drafted Jose...but they weren't there when we drafted Jeff Allison...or when we drafted Tyler Kolek. You can teach conditioning, you can't teach stuff.

As far as I'm concerned, Sixto is likely looking at TJS in the next 2 years. Don't really care. He's 20. The stuff is top-notch. He's going to be fine.

Considering the article you linked basically said the Marlins were never getting the package you thought they deserved, Lee, what was the right move given the chips on the table?

[Lee Stone]

From what I've read, there were conditioning concerns within the organization.

Conditioning concerns don't really bother me. They also existed when we signed Livan...and drafted Jose...but they weren't there when we drafted Jeff Allison...or when we drafted Tyler Kolek. You can teach conditioning, you can't teach stuff.

As far as I'm concerned, Sixto is likely looking at TJS in the next 2 years. Don't really care. He's 20. The stuff is top-notch. He's going to be fine.

Considering the article you linked basically said the Marlins were never getting the package you thought they deserved, Lee, what was the right move given the chips on the table?

Well, my view was that the Marlins had one solid young position player in B Anderson (at 3B, where he has optimum value). Since help was needed at all of the other seven positions, the focus should have been on upgrading as many positions as possible. The team best equipped to provide that was TB. Obviously, the Marlins chose to put all the eggs in one basket and go for a recognized top prospect (Whitley, Tucker, Anderson, whoever. My reaction to that is why? What does one great prospect accomplish when a team is weak everywhere. While we don't know, and probably never will know, what Tampa Bay offered or was asked for, we can assume that Miami wanted Franco, McKay, or Honeywell - one of their top guys. Had the Marlins "settled" on a return of SS Fox, Brandon Lowe, Nick Solak, and C R Hernandez for example, we would have been looking at four capable starters as soon as 2020. I feel like the Marlins blew a great opportunity. Just one fan's opinion.

Note: I realize that many Marlin fans believe Isan Diaz and Brinson and Harrison and others are going to be contributing major leaguers. I do not.

[fauowls44]

From what I've read, there were conditioning concerns within the organization.

Conditioning concerns don't really bother me. They also existed when we signed Livan...and drafted Jose...but they weren't there when we drafted Jeff Allison...or when we drafted Tyler Kolek. You can teach conditioning, you can't teach stuff.

As far as I'm concerned, Sixto is likely looking at TJS in the next 2 years. Don't really care. He's 20. The stuff is top-notch. He's going to be fine.

Considering the article you linked basically said the Marlins were never getting the package you thought they deserved, Lee, what was the right move given the chips on the table?

Every pitcher is an injury risk. Always go with the ones with the most talent. There are never sure things, but the Marlins had to come out of this trade with an elite talent and they did.

[Lee Stone]

Every pitcher is an injury risk. Always go with the ones with the most talent. There are never sure things, but the Marlins had to come out of this trade with an elite talent and they did.

Why one elite talent? Why not four great young prospects to fill up a lineup card and make the Marlins watchable?

[emkayseven]

Lee, I don't disagree that TB has a great system. But there was never ANY indication they were seriously in on Realmuto.

- - - - - - - - - -

Like, I'd have loved to trade JT for Vlad Jr, but the Blue Jays weren't in on the deal, you know?

[fauowls44]

Well, my view was that the Marlins had one solid young position player in B Anderson (at 3B, where he has optimum value). Since help was needed at all of the other seven positions, the focus should have been on upgrading as many positions as possible. The team best equipped to provide that was TB. Obviously, the Marlins chose to put all the eggs in one basket and go for a recognized top prospect (Whitley, Tucker, Anderson, whoever. My reaction to that is why? What does one great prospect accomplish when a team is weak everywhere. While we don't know, and probably never will know, what Tampa Bay offered or was asked for, we can assume that Miami wanted Franco, McKay, or Honeywell - one of their top guys. Had the Marlins "settled" on a return of SS Fox, Brandon Lowe, Nick Solak, and C R Hernandez for example, we would have been looking at four capable starters as soon as 2020. I feel like the Marlins blew a great opportunity. Just one fan's opinion.

Note: I realize that many Marlin fans believe Isan Diaz and Brinson and Harrison and others are going to be contributing major leaguers. I do not.

Why go for one great prospect? Baseball teams draft 30+ players every year and you can find players like Fox, Lowe, and Solak everywhere. It is much more rare to get a pitcher with the natural talent of Sixto. The Marlins have drafted 2 in almost 30 years (Beckett and Jose). If you have the chance to get someone that has ace potential, you have to go for it.