2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I get the new guy has to evaluate, but it’s sad they’ve done literally nothing.

good work to kill any momentum from a playoff appearance.

Counter point: How much evaluation does a Luzardo, Arraez, or Eury extension need?

Yea I know he has to have a top level view and see what else he has, to know how those guys fit in over the course of the next 5+ years if extended. And ultimately, maybe the bat depth is so unimpressive he has to turn around those first two + others to get a half dozen more Jazz guys around. But these are real obvious moves I personally would say fall into "lock up these core players and figure out the rest later." Arguably Luzardo becomes MORE valuable once signed you know? More years + cost certainty. So why is there any hesitation to not sign him?

So following the river, it just always goes back to, Bruce is telling them not to sign anyone. Bendix cannot be this stupid/lethargic, so it goes right to the top here.

Just saying here, can't dump on Bendix yet and I think we're all there. But maybe he gets the last laugh and Rogers turns back into close to 2021, Cabrera has the next "Luzardo" level jump, Weathers or Max also turns into a quality SP quickly, DLC, Sanchez, and Burger combine for close to 90-100 HR, Brujan and Edwards turn into 85% of their projections and both become 2+ WAR starters like the Rays seem to conjure annually, Arraez finds some power and hits 20+ more 2B/HR in a mini D. Murphy/Altuve hit tool break out, Jazz and Eury both go off with 5+ WAR superstar seasons, and Bell/Scott have career years before entering free agency for their best career shot at their biggest FA contract. There is a lot to like here even if that's all unlikely even if a few happen. So yea, it's Bruce being a loser and not raising the floor here. Sucks for us as Minnesota/Seattle ownership would make this a contender even without Sandy and Garcia/Barnes/Cueto dead money. Venting. Sigh.

Watch this dude make 4 trades before spring training rendering all of these looming offseason frustration/puzzlement moot.

[Nick]

I don't have access, but Rosenthal put out an article in The Athletic about how we haven't signed a single free agent this offseason.

Who's excited for 2024?

[lou]

I don't have access, but Rosenthal put out an article in The Athletic about how we haven't signed a single free agent this offseason.

Who's excited for 2024?

I can't find the link, but I saw an excerpt of it yesterday and Rosenthal ends it with something like, they have no money, they won't sign anyone, they'll be surprised they aren't good, no one else will be surprised, they'll trade off players to build for the future, rinse, repeat, endless cycle.

It sounded about right to me, but I guess we'll be pretty happy with the prospect pipeline August 1st? It was nice to beat all odds/luck and make the playoffs that one time?

[rmc523]

TLDR version of the Athletic article is perfectly summed up by their last line: "Wash, rinse, repeat. The Marlins are at it again."

Another summary - team doesn't spend, then doesn't contend, then trades vets, with an aim for the "future" whenever that may be.

There was a line about Kim "not having time" to work on hiring additional FO personnel in her "2" years in charge.......yeah, ok.......
you're trying to sell me that in 2 years - even if you're generous and call it 2 without the other folks adjacent to her - that she couldn't hir additional FO personnel to help in lacking areas? Please. That points even more to the fact she couldn't do more than one thing at once, which was one of her biggest problems.
They also panned the decision to not give Soler a QO and get the draft pick.

MLB needs to force Bruce to sell and bring in someone with actual money that'll run it like an actual team rather than the less-entertaining (vs. Loria) circus.

At least with Loria, he'd spend sometimes and make moronic trades that we could at least point to as reasons we weren't competitive that year. With Bruce, it's always going to be "next year."

[rmc523]

And I know they won’t force a sale. Just saying it sucks having such a cheap owner when a few moves for not a lot of money (relative to MLB) would have us in a good spot.

[lou]

TLDR version of the Athletic article is perfectly summed up by their last line: "Wash, rinse, repeat. The Marlins are at it again."

Another summary - team doesn't spend, then doesn't contend, then trades vets, with an aim for the "future" whenever that may be.

There was a line about Kim "not having time" to work on hiring additional FO personnel in her "2" years in charge.......yeah, ok.......
you're trying to sell me that in 2 years - even if you're generous and call it 2 without the other folks adjacent to her - that she couldn't hir additional FO personnel to help in lacking areas? Please. That points even more to the fact she couldn't do more than one thing at once, which was one of her biggest problems.
They also panned the decision to not give Soler a QO and get the draft pick.

MLB needs to force Bruce to sell and bring in someone with actual money that'll run it like an actual team rather than the less-entertaining (vs. Loria) circus.

At least with Loria, he'd spend sometimes and make moronic trades that we could at least point to as reasons we weren't competitive that year. With Bruce, it's always going to be "next year."

Good with the bold. Based on Teoscar's deal, Soler should do better over 2-3 years even with the compensation.

And right because after they trade Luzardo and Arraez, they'll then trade Sandy mid-2025/offseason because he'll be healthy again and they can move that payroll, and then Jazz, Rogers, and Puk are definitely gone with only a year of control left themselves post 2025. So Bendix who is circling 2025 right now, will just circle 2026 and keep kicking that can until they can create a vortex of 15+ starting players all with 4 and under years of control at the same time. Which frankly, no one in baseball has been able to do (although the Rays are currently close and probably would have done it but for Wander being a creep and multiple enormous tommy johns like McClanahan). Or, they can just spend $140m which is bottom 19 in baseball and similar to Seattle/Minnesota (lower markets than Miami/FTL/WPB) as adding $50m of the right 3-5 players to this team makes them a highly probably wild card team even without Sandy.

I know we say this every offseason, but genuinely is this the one that is going to break the few of us who remain as if they can't invest anything after making the playoffs when there are clear fantastic extension candidates and some money must be there to fill the roster on top of that, what is the point?

[rmc523]

At this point in time, I’m shifting back to “watch from afar” and tune into a game here and there, but it won’t be must watch. And we’ll see how the record goes as to whether or not I put more effort into it.

they just don’t seem to understand that fans will follow/mirror the input and energy the team puts into itself. If the org doesn’t care about itself and put effort in, why should fans?

[Namaste]

New Fangraphs projection has Marlins at 82 wins in 2024

One game behind the Orioles

[lou]

New Fangraphs projection has Marlins at 82 wins in 2024

One game behind the Orioles

Assuming this is a fair projection (I can't imagine they get there with the current squad + at least 25 good FA and 5-8 major ones + impending league wide trades have a big impact if the Marlins do nothing significant, etc.), what owner doesn't go for it after an abysmal 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 with spending bottom 2-3 in the league during this time? And all you have to do there is get to bottom 19th in payroll? Trade Noble, Amaya, and good flyers for Adames (extend 6-7 years) and D. Williams (they are in a tear down and then can move Burnes to said Orioles for Westburg or an Ortiz package next, etc.), sign Lorenzen/etc. for 1 year to be the 5th/6th SP and eat 125+ innings, and sign Duvall/etc. for 1 year, and you're under $140m in 2024 and that projection scales over 87 wins easily even accounting for FG is probably a few games too kind there. Then, you can sign Arraez, Luzardo, and Eury to extensions so you deflect future payroll, and make them more valuable because now there is cost certainty with years. It's just not rocket science. Interest in the Marlins would triple and no one questions those moves even if moving Noble is extremely painful. It's so frustrating.

[fish16]

rhys hoskins gets a 2 year 34 million deal with an opt out after year 1 while we continue to assemble the largest front office in sports history. No excuse not to get him at that price point. That dude is one of the best DH's in baseball. Him and Bell splitting 1b and DH would give this lineup a punch we dont have. But instead we continue to make up positions in the front office.

[Nick]

Trey Mancini Minor League Deal.

We did it.

[lou]

rhys hoskins gets a 2 year 34 million deal with an opt out after year 1 while we continue to assemble the largest front office in sports history. No excuse not to get him at that price point. That dude is one of the best DH's in baseball. Him and Bell splitting 1b and DH would give this lineup a punch we dont have. But instead we continue to make up positions in the front office.

They should spend money, but I'm not sure he's the one. With Bell, DLC, Arraez, Burger, and Edwards all below average defensive options, with no true second CF on the roster, I'm not sure he is the guy. They need guys who can play in the field IMO. It's the same problem they had with Soler, Yuli, and Cooper (and then DLC dropped like a rock defensively). Too many of those kind of guys is a big problem.

Ideally for me, they get a dedicated SS/3B (preferably SS) and at least a platoon guy for the other one to split with Berti. That would work out. It seems like the Brewers are going to try and go for it with that signing which stinks as I do think they trade out Adames eventually (obviously a pie in the sky dream for the Marlins), but now it's looking like the deadline. I'd say right now, they should sign two starting pitchers (as FA bats stink) and then immediately trade two starting pitchers to get the bats. We can debate which ones, but Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, and Weathers cost the minimum, so it's frankly Luzardo and Rogers here to shed cash as those SP won't be cheap.

They could go for it and sign Montgomery in a he-who-shall-not-be-named transaction the Nationals did that one time, Lorenzen for a year, trade Luzardo for something like Mayo/Westburg and Ortiz, and trade Rogers/Okert/MILB for something like D. Carlson and Herrera, and all of a sudden that looks pretty interesting..... with $40m (Bell, Lorenzen, Scott, Bethancourt, Chargois, Barnes, Cueto) coming off the books post 2024 to internally pay for raises (Sandy, arbitration Jazz, Sanchez, Puk, Cabrera, Garrett, etc.). And then if they trade Arraez on top of that, they'd shed even more money and get another 1-2 super premium guys. It's at least a cohesive plan versus twiddling thumbs.

[lou]

Trey Mancini Minor League Deal.

We did it.

Fine flyer idea even though he was terrible last year, but not much of a positional fit. Just raises the floor for a Bell/DLC injury.

[rmc523]

They should spend money, but I'm not sure he's the one. With Bell, DLC, Arraez, Burger, and Edwards all below average defensive options, with no true second CF on the roster, I'm not sure he is the guy. They need guys who can play in the field IMO. It's the same problem they had with Soler, Yuli, and Cooper (and then DLC dropped like a rock defensively). Too many of those kind of guys is a big problem.

Ideally for me, they get a dedicated SS/3B (preferably SS) and at least a platoon guy for the other one to split with Berti. That would work out. It seems like the Brewers are going to try and go for it with that signing which stinks as I do think they trade out Adames eventually (obviously a pie in the sky dream for the Marlins), but now it's looking like the deadline. I'd say right now, they should sign two starting pitchers (as FA bats stink) and then immediately trade two starting pitchers to get the bats. We can debate which ones, but Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, and Weathers cost the minimum, so it's frankly Luzardo and Rogers here to shed cash as those SP won't be cheap.

They could go for it and sign Montgomery in a he-who-shall-not-be-named transaction the Nationals did that one time, Lorenzen for a year, trade Luzardo for something like Mayo/Westburg and Ortiz, and trade Rogers/Okert/MILB for something like D. Carlson and Herrera, and all of a sudden that looks pretty interesting..... with $40m (Bell, Lorenzen, Scott, Bethancourt, Chargois, Barnes, Cueto) coming off the books post 2024 to internally pay for raises (Sandy, arbitration Jazz, Sanchez, Puk, Cabrera, Garrett, etc.). And then if they trade Arraez on top of that, they'd shed even more money and get another 1-2 super premium guys. It's at least a cohesive plan versus twiddling thumbs.

I think the point was more that they’ve done literally nothing. Even if it’s a duplicate like last year, at least it’s have been….something.

[fauowls44]

Trey Mancini Minor League Deal.

We did it.

I like this. Since it seems unlikely at this point that they going to spend to replace Soler, I would sign a few of these DH types of guys to minor league deals (Eduardo Escobar, Luke Voit, CJ Cron?) and hope one pans out for a season.

As for Mancini, he was bad last year, but is just a season removed from signing a $14 million deal. He's still only 32 and he can play 1B, DH, and some corner OF. If nobody else gets signed, I assume he'll get a spot on the roster as long as he's not an absolute disaster this spring. He's at least a higher upside Yuli for the season. Perhaps they have Bell DH and Mancini and Troy Johnston split time at first?

Still haven't signed a free agent to a MLB deal, so that is annoying. They need to find a SS. Not my favorite, but Amed Rosario is still sitting out there. If they were willing to spend on IKF, why not bring Rosario in for a season to plug the SS hole?