2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

And then Jazz, Sanchez, and Gordon can't play against lefties. That is 100+ games and DLC can't play for all of them at once. There's a ton of time for Garcia/OF replacements coming. This is at least 300-400PA.

So then anyone, and I mean anyone, gets hurt and there is the rest of the time.


It does add up fast. So yes, I have done the math.

Jazz had 94 PA's vs lefties all of last year plus he missed half the year. Jesus had 47 ab's vs lefties all of last year. That's not anything additional to what i put earlier. I would also add that i'd like to see them get more opportunities vs lefties. Not sure how they can be expected to improve into anything more than platoon guys if you never give them opportunities. But, if anything, Jazz playing a full year takes away from those 2500 i mentioned earlier. Bell and Burger each were only here for 53 games last year. Your math just isnt mathing. Again, they lost 2500 ab's from guys who had at least 100 ab's last year. Anderson, Betancourt, Gordon, and full seasons from Burger, Bell, and hopefully jazz make up for a lot of them. The young guys can and should be given an opportunity for the remainder of those at bats, and it wont be close to 2000.

And none of that even brings up the fact that the number of at bats you are talking about werent productive last year. Again, it was a net of 1.4 WAR. we should be able to make up for that pretty easily in the aggregate. Possibly by a lot if anderson comes back to his career norms and produces and Burger and Bell stay healthy.

And, in the event of some calamitous amount of injuries- who do we want playing in what is likely meaningless games for a team out of contention- young guys or Gio Urshela and JD Davis? This team needs to find quality hitters under team control. You need to just roll the ball out there and see what happens some times. Give me that over mediocre veterans any day.

[lou]

Jazz had 94 PA's vs lefties all of last year plus he missed half the year. Jesus had 47 ab's vs lefties all of last year. That's not anything additional to what i put earlier. If anything, Jazz playing a full year takes away from those 2500 i mentioned earlier. Bell and Burger each were only here for 53 games last year. Your math just isnt mathing. Again, they lost 2500 ab's from guys who had at least 100 ab's last year. Anderson, Betancourt, Gordon, and full seasons from Burger, Bell, and hopefully jazz make up for a lot of them. The young guys can and should be given an opportunity for the remainder of those at bats, and it wont be close to 2000.

And none of that even brings up the fact that the number of at bats you are talking about werent productive last year. Again, it was a net of 1.4 WAR. we should be able to make up for that pretty easily in the aggregate. Possibly by a lot if anderson comes back to his career norms and produces and Burger and Bell stay healthy.

And, in the event of some calamitous amount of injuries- who do we want playing in what is likely meaningless games for a team out of contention- young guys or Gio Urshela and JD Davis? This team needs to find quality hitters under team control. You need to just roll the ball out there and see what happens some times. Give me that over mediocre veterans any day.

Since you're still struggling with basic math, here you go.

And I note I asked you earlier to not make me do this (again), but here we are. Rough starts projection:

DH Bell (81), Burger (30), DLC (51)
1B Bell (60), Burger (60), Arraez (42)
2B Arraez (100), 2B ______ (62)
SS Anderson (130), SS _____ (32)
3B Burger (50), 3B ______ (112)
LF Gordon(110), DLC (52)
CF Jazz (130), ______ (32)
RF Sanchez(110), DLC (27), ______ (25)

Per player
Arraez, Bell, Burger - 140+
Tim and Jazz - 130 (few extra off days)
DLC - 130 (because they have no one else, and org likes him)
Gordon and Sanchez - 110 (sitting versus lefties)

(Those are all very aggressive numbers above and 30-40 can be shaved quickly for some extra maintenance days).

Remainder - 263 starts for..... Garcia, Brujan, Edwards/Bride from opening day roster. It's 1,000-1,200 PA (because there are pinch hits too)

And now injuries will kick in as these are full AF loads for everyone and unrealistic. Minimum 500 PA (likely more, closer to 800 PA) are coming quickly for the other of Edwards/Bride, Dane, and whoever else who has a pulse. That's where you get roughly 2,000 PA. Quickly. Maybe you think everyone is healthy and performs though? Because they have in the past? And sure maybe the deadline kicks in here and they get a few hundred PA like they did last year, but that shouldn't be plan A day 1 when clear depth alternatives are available now for $1.5-2.5m dollars which is nothing. And all that does is kick Edwards/Bride to AAA, or Garcia to retirement.


So I asked this earlier, you are ok giving around 2,000 PA to Garcia, Brujan, Edwards, Bride, Dane, Amaya, Mesa Jr., Johnston, Gray, other minor leaguers, and mid-season trades. I think that sucks and is an epic front office failure. But if you believe in those guys, go for it. They are going to play A LOT. Like I said, get three guys with 1.2+ WAR paces out of that group and all is forgiven and I'll eat the crow.

Pencil me in for a better idea being Rosario/Urshela and JD Davis/Urshela/Taylor for 1000+ of those PA for about $5m bucks in total (which is $1.5m more than what you were paying Berti so you get the prospects now too for only $1.5m dollars more you're spending for double the PA of Berti), with the rest going to Brujan and DLC's time above getting cut into as he probably hasn't earned that time day 1. This is an incredibly simple and basic upgrade versus Garcia and keeping Edwards/Bride in AAA until someone is hurt.

[fish16]

That is not aggressive whatsoever. First off, the marlins have never indicated they will play Arraez anywhere other than 2b. So while we can all keep penciling him in at 1b, they have never indicated that he will ever play anything other than 2b. Jazz if he is healthy is playing more than 130. If he's not healthy this season is lost anyways.

Anderson is playing 145-150 if he's healthy. They arent signing him then giving him 32 off days.

Again, we can disagree on how many ab's they have to fill, but the ab's they are replacing were thoroughly mediocre. Id rather improve in the aggregate and give young guys opportunities to succeed. Johnston, Edwards, Brujan, Bride, Myers, have nothing left to prove in AAA. Give them the opportunity. They are replacing a net of 1.4 WAR if they have to entirely replace those 2500 ab's, which they dont.

We had like 4 of the worst players in baseball last year in Stallings, Wendle, Segura, and Garcia, though garcia barely played. Mere competence in those spots will help improve this lineup to be just as good if not better than last year while giving opportunities to young guys.

[lou]

That is not aggressive whatsoever. First off, the marlins have never indicated they will play Arraez anywhere other than 2b. So while we can all keep penciling him in at 1b, they have never indicated that he will ever play anything other than 2b. Jazz if he is healthy is playing more than 130. If he's not healthy this season is lost anyways.

Anderson is playing 145-150 if he's healthy. They arent signing him then giving him 32 off days.

Again, we can disagree on how many ab's they have to fill, but the ab's they are replacing were thoroughly mediocre. Id rather improve in the aggregate and give young guys opportunities to succeed. Johnston, Edwards, Brujan, Bride, Myers, have nothing left to prove in AAA. Give them the opportunity. They are replacing a net of 1.4 WAR if they have to entirely replace those 2500 ab's, which they dont.

We had like 4 of the worst players in baseball last year in Stallings, Wendle, Segura, and Garcia, though garcia barely played. Mere competence in those spots will help improve this lineup to be just as good if not better than last year while giving opportunities to young guys.

First of all, then swap the games to another position. Burger can play more 3B. Who the fuck cares?

Second, it's aggressive. And a hilarious swing where you yelled at me all last offseason the Marlins never have guys who get 500 PA and cited years of (wrong) data, and I bluntly told you given their personnel and offseason comments DLC will get 500 PA and what happened? Screamed past that. So now we're going to no one gets 500 PA in one offseason, to the very next offseason at least 6(?) guys on the team are going to get into 130+ games? Where that hasn't happened since.... 2017. And one of those was Ichiro over 215 PA so does that even count? The odds they have six guys get into 130 games each is extremely extremely low. You're setting yourself up for failure if that's the plan day 1. Guys get hurt. Often.

And again, it's not about replacing mediocre PA. It's about getting better as a team and adding 8-10 wins, because they got really lucky in 1 run games last year. They weren't an 84 win team absent unbelievable luck. What are you missing here? They are not a .500 team right now and signing 4 guys making collectively under $10m would have been a step in the right direction if those guys had a 6-7 WAR projection which is what Rosario, Davis, Lorenzen, and Taylor would do versus Garcia, Edwards, DLC, and Hoeing (those later 3 can all go to AAA and Brujan kept on the roster). It likely wouldn't have gotten them to where they need to go, but it would give them a fighting chance. After a playoff appearance. They don't have a chance right now absent some real Brujan/Edwards/Gordon prospect status level break outs or Eury going full Fernandez and Cabrera going full Snell. I welcome the unexpected, but I don't know what you're not getting that this team could have spent $10m to win 5-6 more games as a floor and not hampered any prospect development. It's because ownership doesn't care, is cheap, or both. Because 2025 is circled.

[Namaste]

Bendy signed another Rays guy. Burch Smith.

On the Opening Day roster I believe. Had a good 2020.

Hitters in 2024 Spring Training had a .524 BABIP against him.

[fish16]

Bendy signed another Rays guy. Burch Smith.

On the Opening Day roster I believe. Had a good 2020.

Hitters in 2024 Spring Training had a .524 BABIP against him.

is he one of those guys that went to japan or something and figured something out? because the dude hasnt pitched since 2021 in the majors or minors, and he was fucking awful every year of his career. Career 6.03 ERA in 190 innings. Not sure what maldonado has to do to get promoted. Especially in a bullpen that could use high leverage righty arms. Absent other information he just looks like a complete waste of a 40 man and 26 man roster spot.

[fish16]

First of all, then swap the games to another position. Burger can play more 3B. Who the fuck cares?

Second, it's aggressive. And a hilarious swing where you yelled at me all last offseason the Marlins never have guys who get 500 PA and cited years of (wrong) data, and I bluntly told you given their personnel and offseason comments DLC will get 500 PA and what happened? Screamed past that. So now we're going to no one gets 500 PA in one offseason, to the very next offseason at least 6(?) guys on the team are going to get into 130+ games? Where that hasn't happened since.... 2017. And one of those was Ichiro over 215 PA so does that even count? The odds they have six guys get into 130 games each is extremely extremely low. You're setting yourself up for failure if that's the plan day 1. Guys get hurt. Often.

And again, it's not about replacing mediocre PA. It's about getting better as a team and adding 8-10 wins, because they got really lucky in 1 run games last year. They weren't an 84 win team absent unbelievable luck. What are you missing here? They are not a .500 team right now and signing 4 guys making collectively under $10m would have been a step in the right direction if those guys had a 6-7 WAR projection which is what Rosario, Davis, Lorenzen, and Taylor would do versus Garcia, Edwards, DLC, and Hoeing (those later 3 can all go to AAA and Brujan kept on the roster). It likely wouldn't have gotten them to where they need to go, but it would give them a fighting chance. After a playoff appearance. They don't have a chance right now absent some real Brujan/Edwards/Gordon prospect status level break outs or Eury going full Fernandez and Cabrera going full Snell. I welcome the unexpected, but I don't know what you're not getting that this team could have spent $10m to win 5-6 more games as a floor and not hampered any prospect development. It's because ownership doesn't care, is cheap, or both. Because 2025 is circled.

Lets take a look back at the end of the year of the WAR comparisons of these 2 groups. Because you fall in love with the same mediocre veterans year after year and never take any time to reflect on how fucking awful your projections are. Rosario stinks. Lorenzon is a thoroughly mediocre player and was awful to end last year.Michael Taylor is a career 82 WRC+ and has had 1 above average hitting season in his career and that was 2017 where his BABIP was off the charts. None of those guys are making the difference between this team making the playoffs or not. Hell yes those opportunities should go to young guys who have nothing left to prove in AAA.

Also, my information was correct. The marlins had 2 guys get over 500 ab's in any season between 2018 and 2022. Those were Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson. Anybody who actually watches DLC play and looked at his track record could have seen that DLC had no business being an every day player. He's not a major league caliber player. He should be a fringe roster AAAA guy. It was clear he sucked and that you were falling for a 2 week hot streak instead of actually watching games for all of 2022 and seeing that he's awful. And yet you continued to project 2+ war and rely on absurd projection systems and then take no time to actually reflect on how bad your projections are annually. I'm sure you fall for "X showed up to spring training in the best shape of his career" as well. The marlins were morons for continuing to trot him out there. Maybe it's his 11th year of professional baseball that he really turns the corner though!!!

The reason no one got more than 500 ab's in that time other than those 2 is because we havent had a single cornerstone impact bat since 2017 when we traded a group of all stars. Not saying all these guys are cornerstone bats, but they will be treated as such here, including Jazz, Bell, Burger, Arraez, and Anderson. If they are healthy, they will each play 130+ games.

[Namaste]

I think we lost Lee Stone

[fish16]

I think we lost Lee Stone

but on the bright side i think we also finally lost maddawg.

[Namaste]

Marlins 25.8% to make the playoffs (Fangraphs). So I'm saying there's a chance haha.

[fish16]

Marlins 25.8% to make the playoffs (Fangraphs). So I'm saying there's a chance haha.

that feels about right. Ill guess we go right around .500. anywhere from 79-83 to 84-78

[lou]

Lets take a look back at the end of the year of the WAR comparisons of these 2 groups. Because you fall in love with the same mediocre veterans year after year and never take any time to reflect on how fucking awful your projections are. Rosario stinks. Lorenzon is a thoroughly mediocre player and was awful to end last year.Michael Taylor is a career 82 WRC+ and has had 1 above average hitting season in his career and that was 2017 where his BABIP was off the charts. None of those guys are making the difference between this team making the playoffs or not. Hell yes those opportunities should go to young guys who have nothing left to prove in AAA.

Also, my information was correct. The marlins had 2 guys get over 500 ab's in any season between 2018 and 2022. Those were Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson. Anybody who actually watches DLC play and looked at his track record could have seen that DLC had no business being an every day player. He's not a major league caliber player. He should be a fringe roster AAAA guy. It was clear he sucked and that you were falling for a 2 week hot streak instead of actually watching games for all of 2022 and seeing that he's awful. And yet you continued to project 2+ war and rely on absurd projection systems and then take no time to actually reflect on how bad your projections are annually. I'm sure you fall for "X showed up to spring training in the best shape of his career" as well. The marlins were morons for continuing to trot him out there. Maybe it's his 11th year of professional baseball that he really turns the corner though!!!

The reason no one got more than 500 ab's in that time other than those 2 is because we havent had a single cornerstone impact bat since 2017 when we traded a group of all stars. Not saying all these guys are cornerstone bats, but they will be treated as such here, including Jazz, Bell, Burger, Arraez, and Anderson. If they are healthy, they will each play 130+ games.

Again, your first problem as explained previously is walks exist if you want to evaluate playing time and cherry picking this to fit your narrative only counting AB is sillier than silly with a vast amount of PA appearances not accounted for. Genuinely, why are you still arguing this after you had 40 posts that DLC will never get 500 PA last year despite that is exactly what they said in the offseason and he lead the fucking team in PA last year? More then Arraez! This has nothing to do with whether DLC had any business being an every day player or not (clearly he did not and 2nd half time should have shifted elsewhere). He simply played and they did exactly what they said they were going to do. Can you not ever concede any point, especially one that is wholly irrelevant which this is? You're trying to change the subject to DLC suck as a defensive tactic, and it's not working. Overall, who cares about this? We all understand DLC's defense absolutely cratered and his swing didn't produce the loft to have a mini-Teoscar/Davis breakout. It doesn't mean he didn't play and that was always the only point.

Second, I want to send DLC to AAA right now and have them have signed Rosario/Duvall/Pham/Taylor as his effective replacement. Would you rather have one of those mediocre veterans for $1.5-4m dollars for this season, or DLC? This has nothing to do with "falling in love" with mediocre veterans. This has everything to do with improving the roster, and if they can do it within Bruce's shitty budgets, I think they should do that. It's truly bizarre you can be a fan of this team and not realize that every year they are always missing a few pieces and over-relying on these AAAA guys. J.D. Davis is better than Bride/Edwards for the last hitter spot and why aren't they spending $2.5m to make that happen? That's insane, especially without Berti. Why are none of those OF above also not replacing Garcia who should be DFA'd? That's insane. You're not taking Michael Taylor's defense and lefty splits versus GARCIA??? Why is Lorenzen not replacing Hoeing? Lorenzen may not be exciting, but he'd throw a better 100 innings right? Just those four moves which would cost $12m or so - which would raise payroll to $5-6m less than what they spent in 2023 after making the playoffs - would have a significant net positive impact on the team. It pushes guys we are comfortable with on the bench (mainly DLC and Edwards, and I suppose Bride) to AAA where they then get the injury PA that are coming. They still get their time at the MLB level and can prove themselves. As stated, Brujan would still make the roster and get his shot here.

As a fan, I think we deserve having a better product out on the field. The depth chart projections of Garcia, DLC, Hoeing, and a 3 headed 13th man monster of Bride/Myers/Edwards comes out to about a 1.7 WAR (1 WAR of this is DLC who I think you'd disagree with that number). Rosario, Davis, Lorenzen, and Taylor are coming out around 4.8 WAR. But it doesn't stop there, as now DLC/Bride/Myers/Edwards get to replace the rest of the roster projections (Amaya, Johnston, Gray, etc.) who would be the injury call ups and effectively replacement level or negative players, so now we get to add some portion of that 1.7 WAR (which is now 2 WAR as Garcia was a negative in that calculation) to the overall improvement. So this becomes a net-gain of at least 4, maybe 5 wins all together. As I have been saying, because for me, the math maths even if you don't see the forest in the trees. For a total of $12m, and you still get the prospects for Berti. Why wouldn't they do that? Because they are cheap assholes is the only reason.

Lastly, and I don't disagree with you this likely wouldn't push them to the playoffs, but that shouldn't be the line here. Build a better culture. Build a better product. Build in more luck if you do get that bullpen performance again. Build your deadline trade assets as if you fall out I bet at least 1-2 of those hypothetical signings would turn into some additional FV40 guys - just like the Berti deal which you immediately loved. How's that Cooper deal looking for Weathers right now? On absolutely no level does this make sense. Because they are cheap assholes is the only reason. Edwards, Bride, and Dane will all get their shots. They can open in AAA. It wouldn't kill them. And to end here, I have continually said maybe Bendix is right here and Brujan, Bride, Myers, and someone else all become 1.2 WAR players over 400 PA rendering a lot of the above moot as yes, then those guys would fill this void. But it just keeps going back to, why not increase your chances for literally $10-12m over 3-4 players and the literal only person you have to release is Garcia. It's bad practice. And it's because they are cheap assholes.
.

[lou]

Marlins 25.8% to make the playoffs (Fangraphs). So I'm saying there's a chance haha.

That's pretty generous but they do love the SP. Scott, Nardi, Bender, and checks notes... Sixto Sanchez, are going to have to be fucking heros this year for this to work.

If they had Sandy, they'd be projected as the # 4 rotation on FG. Sigh. With upside to be # 1 for sure as Eury/Cabrera/Rogers/Puk/Weathers/Max have room to grow. Next year is the one boys. AMIRIGHT?

[rmc523]

Losing John Berti and adding Bride could very easily result in 1-2 losses this year which could be the difference in making the playoffs (lol).

On the Eve of Opening Day, the D'Backs sign Jordan Montgomery and we trade Jon Berti for lottery tickets. If Marlins fans don't think the Marlins have circled 2025, they are dreaming

at this point , I’m not sure they have any year circled. Eury will probably have TJ and be out next year, so that’ll be the reason ‘25 won’t be the year, and so on and so on. There’s always an excuse for why they don’t actually try and make some bold moves (trades or signings), and worse, do moves like this that have no explanation. They’re just going to tread water enough and hope lightning strikes. It’s BS.

[lou]

at this point , I’m not sure they have any year circled. Eury will probably have TJ and be out next year, so that’ll be the reason ‘25 won’t be the year, and so on and so on. There’s always an excuse for why they don’t actually try and make some bold moves (trades or signings), and worse, do moves like this that have no explanation. They’re just going to tread water enough and hope lightning strikes. It’s BS.

That's going a little too far. If Eury is out 2025, they can bring back this roster for around $77m:

Fortes, _____/Banfield
Burger
Edwards, Brujan/Bride/Cappe
_____, _____/Amaya
_____
Gordon, DLC
Jazz, _____/Sasaki/Mesa Jr./Myers
Sanchez

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett
Max, Puk, Rogers, Weathers, Soriano (bulks)
Nardi, Bender, Sixto, Maldonado/Whoever


Obviously Arraez is missing here (+$14m), so add him and make it $91m. Or cash him in for a major prospect ala Glasnow who can play now and will Bruce spend on "1" starting player, or an assortment of Bethancourt, Anderson/Rosario, Davis/Urshela, or Taylor/Duvall 2024 types, to raise the floor? That's a top 1-3 pitching staff without Eury more than likely. The bar is really low here if they do only have 1 major arm injury. They have the innings to sustain that FWIW.

We have a lot to like coming forward as Bendix has a lot of parts to work with, but today is a rollercoaster for sure and I think 2024 is going to bittersweet with a shittier on the field record, but 2025 is gonna look good on paper.

Including, I can't wait till Fish16 sees DLC batting 3rd ahead of Jazz against a right hander opening day. Which is just fucking awesome they can't even do the day 1 lineup right.