2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Or you sign all these 1 year guys - Tim, Rosario, Lorenzen, M. Fulmer for the bullpen, whoever - and then trade them at the deadline. Which is what the Mets and Royals are doing acquiring all these random guys they'll recoup 1-2 FV45/FV40 prospects for and in essence be buying those prospects for $1-5m outright which is smart business. They aren't even good at being cheap or crafty. But I guess they have till spring training to wow us.

I generally have low expectations, but to have such a nothing offseason after the playoff appearance is a mind blowing lost marketing opportunity. If they signed 1 mid-tier guy and then extended Arraez, Luzardo, and Eury, I generally think we'd be all pumped up at this exact moment that they are operating as a real franchise. Those are also lay up moves.

But let's hear about this smart recruiting coordinator for the 70th-79th longitude they'll sign next.

Right. At least it’d be something that you can say will either help the team do better this year, or via prospects if we fall out of it and trade them…
instead, complete radio silence.

[Namaste]

Fangraphs has us at 82 wins as constructed today. There will be improvements made.

[fish16]

Fangraphs has us at 82 wins as constructed today. There will be improvements made.

that seems to high. I guess on paper that seems realistic, but this team without sandy does not feel like it has enough pitching at all to withstand the inevitable injuries that will happen. The talent is clearly there, but there are innings limits and injuries that will cause issues late in the year again. We could barely field a rotation in september last year after sandy went down. Also, our bullpen was fucking awful outside of scott and nardi last year and we have not made any improvements there. It just feels like a team that looks good on paper but will crumble with the injuries that always seem to hit us.

Meyer and Cabrera are the 2 keys to this team to me. If they stay healthy/make improvements, that could go a very long way towards bringing this from a 78 win team towards an 85 win team for me.

[Namaste]

that seems to high. I guess on paper that seems realistic, but this team without sandy does not feel like it has enough pitching at all to withstand the inevitable injuries that will happen. The talent is clearly there, but there are innings limits and injuries that will cause issues late in the year again. We could barely field a rotation in september last year after sandy went down. Also, our bullpen was fucking awful outside of scott and nardi last year and we have not made any improvements there. It just feels like a team that looks good on paper but will crumble with the injuries that always seem to hit us.

Meyer and Cabrera are the 2 keys to this team to me. If they stay healthy/make improvements, that could go a very long way towards bringing this from a 78 win team towards an 85 win team for me.

Perhaps Fangraphs is a lot more confident than this forum that the Marlins will add pieces. Or just more confident in the current roster.

Fangraphs is typically down on the Marlins

[rmc523]

that seems to high. I guess on paper that seems realistic, but this team without sandy does not feel like it has enough pitching at all to withstand the inevitable injuries that will happen. The talent is clearly there, but there are innings limits and injuries that will cause issues late in the year again. We could barely field a rotation in september last year after sandy went down. Also, our bullpen was fucking awful outside of scott and nardi last year and we have not made any improvements there. It just feels like a team that looks good on paper but will crumble with the injuries that always seem to hit us.

Meyer and Cabrera are the 2 keys to this team to me. If they stay healthy/make improvements, that could go a very long way towards bringing this from a 78 win team towards an 85 win team for me.

I think we’re going to end up having major innings issues toward the end of the year with all the young guys and/or guys coming back from injury. And I thought we’d have innings issues before Sandy went down.
we ALWAYS need a vet innings eater and they never go get one….they tried with Cueto, but they always seem to get the “over the hill” version of whoever they do sign.

[fish16]

Perhaps Fangraphs is a lot more confident than this forum that the Marlins will add pieces. Or just more confident in the current roster.

Fangraphs is typically down on the Marlins

the 82 wins is as constructed today, isnt it? Wouldnt that make future additions irrelevant to their projection?

This team really struggled to score runs when Soler was out of the lineup or on one of his slumps. I guess they really believe that full seasons of Bell, Burger, and Jazz make up for that, but im skeptical. The lineup is enough when a few guys are on hot streaks, but outside of that, this team is hard to watch offensively.

[lou]

Perhaps Fangraphs is a lot more confident than this forum that the Marlins will add pieces. Or just more confident in the current roster.

Fangraphs is typically down on the Marlins

I think their projections are on current roster versus others.

The two problems are, some real needle movers (Bellinger, Chapman, Snell, and Montgomery) in particular have yet to land and that'll prop any acquiring team up 2-3+ WAR. Cross your fingers it's all the American league I suppose? Second, whatever the Marlins do (absent some real aggressive trades not taking much away from MLB roster), is going to be difficult to weigh against what anyone else is doing. There are another 20-30 free agents out there after the big ones and even if Miami lands say Anderson/Rosario and Duvall, teams like the Mets or Phillies will probably sign 1 of those type guys too rendering it not much of a bump for Miami. So at best, this stays at 82 or 83 wins and that's not gonna be enough absent enormous 1 run magic again. Scott will have to be MVP for them to make the playoffs again.

So I like the analytical guys who yea, are smarter than us, like this core. I think it's a great core to build on too (especially with Sandy), but the lack of realistic callups for injuries like Fish16 said and assuming 5+ WAR in players aren't going to be added (as Rosario/Duvall types aren't doing that. They'd need Snell/Montgomery and then trade Luzardo for the mother load, with signing at least Rosario or Duvall sort of thing), I'll bet the under on their 82 wins quickly. And it's ultimately Bruce's fault as Bellinger, Montgomery, and Rosario make this team interesting FAST and they can afford it at under midway team salary. So it's hard for me to be confident until things improve. And we all don't want to believe it, but that means a semi-tear down with Arraez and Luzardo which you can see is coming within a year which is depressing.

[lou]

the 82 wins is as constructed today, isnt it? Wouldnt that make future additions irrelevant to their projection?

This team really struggled to score runs when Soler was out of the lineup or on one of his slumps. I guess they really believe that full seasons of Bell, Burger, and Jazz make up for that, but im skeptical. The lineup is enough when a few guys are on hot streaks, but outside of that, this team is hard to watch offensively.

Yep. Phrased another way - this team will go as far as DLC, Garcia, Brujan, and Edwards can carry them. Arraez, Bell, Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, and Berti are definitely quality. They need at least 2 friends fast to carry the load unless we believe in some huge breakouts from the above. I think that can get them to the deadline.


Watch, we're all going to have egg on our face when Brujan clicks into a .260/.340/.425 2+ WAR Chris Taylor like starter, DLC goes on a 5 week tear (even if that's it) to carry the team for a bit, Edwards is nothing special but has one of those classic Rays 1.6 WAR performances over 450 PA, and then get super lucky with Dane being a statcast explosion and chucks in another 300 quality PA over an .800 OPS with a .370 BABIP, like how the Reds had multiple out of nowhere OF breakouts (Benson) last year. Jokes gonna be on all us when doing nothing was the right idea somehow.

[Namaste]

Yep. Phrased another way - this team will go as far as DLC, Garcia, Brujan, and Edwards can carry them. Arraez, Bell, Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, and Berti are definitely quality. They need at least 2 friends fast to carry the load unless we believe in some huge breakouts from the above. I think that can get them to the deadline.


Watch, we're all going to have egg on our face when Brujan clicks into a .260/.340/.425 2+ WAR Chris Taylor like starter, DLC goes on a 5 week tear (even if that's it) to carry the team for a bit, Edwards is nothing special but has one of those classic Rays 1.6 WAR performances over 450 PA, and then get super lucky with Dane being a statcast explosion and chucks in another 300 quality PA over an .800 OPS with a .370 BABIP, like how the Reds had multiple out of nowhere OF breakouts (Benson) last year. Jokes gonna be on when doing nothing was the right idea somehow.

Well, everyone but me. I’m giving Bendix more time before I declare the 2024 Marlins dead in the water.

On the other hand, if the Marlins win 73 games I’ll be the only one here with egg on my face.

[Nick]

I don't think anyone here is declaring the 2024 Marlins dead in the water. At least my personal frustration, is directly from the fact that I'm convinced that the chances of Bruce ever spending money on this team are dead in the water.

[Nick]

I do think the FGs projections are very generous to us at this point, though.

[lou]

Well, everyone but me. I’m giving Bendix more time before I declare the 2024 Marlins dead in the water.

On the other hand, if the Marlins win 73 games I’ll be the only one here with egg on my face.

It'll be in the middle so everyone is unhappy. 77 wins, but with a mass July trade-off, so that, combined with the 2-3 free agents they aren't signing, we could triangulate that to the last wild card I am sure. I predict frustration. Which isn't a bold position or groundbreaking analysis!



Fangraphs actually is really interesting though.

In full season PA they have Jazz (2.7 WAR), Arrarez (2.5 WAR), Burger (2.3 WAR), Bell (1.2 WAR), and DLC (1.1 WAR). I'm taking the over here, maybe by as much as 2-3 WAR. Jazz and Arraez are going to blow past that if healthy.

Then in platoon seasons, they have Sanchez (1.3 WAR), Berti (1.3 WAR), Fortes (1.6 WAR), and Bethancourt (1 WAR). This is the scary group to me. It's hard to determine where this lands as it could be literally 0 WAR if the catchers don't hit, Berti slows with age, and Sanchez regresses, or 7 WAR with the catchers defending themselves to 2.5+ WAR, Sanchez murdering RHP, and Berti being consistent Berti. I won't be surprised at all here in either direction.

Then the bench guys, and they like Edwards (.8 WAR) and Brujan (.6 WAR) in spot duty. Those are half seasons or under, so double those per 600/PA and really pretty solid. They like Amaya too defensively but I won't mention and just say he's seemingly the 14th/15th bat for 2023. Basically, let his IF defense be the floor production and a good call up for injury. They have Dane as a nothing player, but I'd like to think there is hope he can handle himself a bit as the hit profile is interesting.

Two bats to go and that's over 16 WAR for those first 11 guys without imagining Jazz/Arraez do more, that middle group doing a little better, or an Edwards/Brujan breakout. A 16+ WAR would have been good for the 17th best position core in 2023 for perspective.

You add Rosario/Duvall in FA and imagine Jazz/Arraez carry more of a load here, and you can get the Marlins on paper to a top 10-13 range position core based on 2023 numbers. If Bruce wows us with Bellinger, could even scale up to 8-11th range.



The main pitchers ignoring last 2-3 bullpen guys I'll just say cumulatively get to 15+ WAR. That's pretty middle of the pack in 12th-17th range overall. So it's going to be a complete fringe team fighting for .500 absent large improvements or 1 run luck. The really interesting thing here is, add a 4+ WAR Sandy to this and it becomes top 4-7 staff in the league that quickly. So you can imagine the 2025 projection when Eury (122 IP), Cabrera (132 IP), Max (98 IP), and Rogers (124 IP) may all scale up 125+ innings, with Scott being the only defection. And if Eury goes full Jose Fernandez, it gets top 1-3 staff projection. And that's ignoring Cabrera does have ace potential if any control appears and Rogers does have a 4 WAR season on his resume if he finally gets healthy.


So I see what FG is doing, but they need more. And this is an indictment on Bruce as man, with a sub $90m payroll adding 6-8 WAR to this team will do wonders. Just drop Bellinger, Montgomery, and Rosario on this team (7+ WAR) and they'll probably be really really good at a bottom 10 payroll in baseball with 300+ more innings coming in 2025 to sustain a real contending window even with losing a few guys like Bell and Scott with expiring deals. They could still even trade Luzardo and Arraez for kids in this scenario and it would make sense as they signed their replacements. I wish every day Amazon man from Miami buys the team.

[rmc523]

I don't think anyone here is declaring the 2024 Marlins dead in the water. At least my personal frustration, is directly from the fact that I'm convinced that the chances of Bruce ever spending money on this team are dead in the water.

I think they’ll wind up around .500…..but it has the ability to get ugly fast if the young pitchers implode/hit limits, which I think has a very real possibility.

there’s still time for things to happen before the season, but time is running out.

I agree that it’s unlikely Bruce ever spends - I have zero confidence that happens.

[fish16]

I don't think anyone here is declaring the 2024 Marlins dead in the water. At least my personal frustration, is directly from the fact that I'm convinced that the chances of Bruce ever spending money on this team are dead in the water.

this. I'm always the optimistic one here so im sure ill talk myself into this team being relatively competitive by opening day. To me, the negativity is just from being worn down trying to talk myself into this ownership spending when the time comes. it's just not going to happen. he is a piece of shit terrible owner. He has no business owning a professional sports team. and the fans are the ones who have to suffer because of it.

Ive said it for years- yes, this team gets no attendance so the owner always has the excuse of low revenue as a reason for the low payrolls. And then the fans have the excuse of low payroll as an excuse not to come out to support the team. The team needed a guy with deep pockets who would sustain early losses and invest big money into the team to bring back the fanbase. IF you invest in this team and create a consistent winner that isnt the laughing stock of baseball, fans will come out, revenues will increase, and then eventually you can start turning a profit due to increased attendance even with increased payrolls. But we didnt get an owner with any vision, and as a result, we are stuck with a worse owner than we had previously, even more pathetic payrolls, even more pathetic crowds, and 0 hope for anything changing until this guy dies.

[Namaste]

I don't think anyone here is declaring the 2024 Marlins dead in the water..

Oh really?? Haha ok my reading comprehension must be terrible. All I’ve understood here (and on Twitter) is that the Marlins are doing nothing, will do nothing and 2024 will be a step backwards from 2023.