2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

No, it’s based off of his love for vintage Cabernet Sauvignon.

Of course it’s based off of his role as Vice President and then General Manager of an organization known for getting a lot from a smaller payroll. Which is (other than their alligator arm owner spending more money) EXACTLY what the Marlins need to right the ship drafting and prospect/player development wise.

He was never the decision maker, and now he has complete autonomy. Let’s see what he does with it before we crown him some type of savior.

[lou]

https://www.mlb.com/news/peter-bendi...s-organization

Asked for his takeaways from all this, Bendix begins by assuring fans there is a long-term plan in place. He emphasizes the importance of being disciplined in his decision-making. He cannot chase short-term highs; he must stay true and stick with the process.

“I think to build the organization that we want to build, it won't happen overnight and it won't happen in a smooth linear fashion,” Bendix said. “That's not how organizations achieve sustainable success. The way it does happen is by keeping an eye on what our end goal is, of building that organization into a place where we can be successful year in and year out, and knowing that it takes decisions that are meant to pay off in the long term to get there.

“So what we're going to be doing is, we're going to constantly be making these decisions that we know are going to take a little bit of time to pay off. But in doing so, we're not cutting things from this year. We're not trying to take a step back, we're not trying to rebuild. We're trying to come in and say, ‘What can we do to help this year's team while also investing for the future?’ We all want to constantly be investing into the future, always. There's never a point that we won't be investing into the future. You can invest into the current and the future at the same time.”


He didn’t actually say 3 years - I threw that in there because it’s a never ending cycle of waiting. By the time this guy’s plan starts to sprout, we’ll be on to the next new guy and next new plan….rinse and repeat.

lol.

"My owner is cheap but I'm going to try real hard guys"

[lou]

We made the playoffs last year and hired very likely the craftiest and arguably the best POBO in MLB and it’s all fucking gloom and doom in here.

They have at least three (Arraez, Luzardo, Eury) of the better extension candidates in baseball 3, 2, and 6 years away from free agency, who collectively over the next few years may be 12+ WAR in players. And it could be more if Eury hits his complete top end. They are refusing to extend them because they are cheap. Everyone else except maybe Oakland in baseball - including the Royals who are now radically outspending the Marlins - is running to extend them. I can understand waiting a year for Eury. That's fine, maybe signing a Hunter Greene deal is a bit early. But if he goes 80% Fernandez the price goes up likely $25-30 for the same years (but that's over 7-8 seasons so who cares). And more if that 6+ WAR Fernandez year happens and who knows maybe he does it. So I feel it is in their benefit to sign him as if he makes it, they can't afford him. Luzardo makes absolutely no sense. You can sign him for 5/$75-80m deal based on the comps right now, and Arraez has probably scaled up to the B. Reynolds level contract (6/$110m), or maybe you can convince him to get to FA faster and do 5/$90m which is a lot of money. Luzardo is probably a $250m pitcher in free agency right now as Yamamoto would be the closest comp, and Arraez likely a Nimmo type player ($160m-ish). This is crafty IMO - targeting buyouts when these guys have already proven some worth with some more upside (I think all 3 of them haven't hit their peak yet).

And then if we get further crafty, Jazz is a buy low right now. It's probably under Luzardo 5/$65m range. He may be the type of guy to test FA early, but given his injury history I think his agent will yell at him loudly to take the money if offered and you still are a FA in your prime. Make a very loud public offer and make him decline it. So is E. Cabrera who you could probably sign for 5/$20m or so with super beneficial options on the back. Maybe he takes that before an expected breakout and you've saved tens and tens of millions. Scott is also a volatile reliever. He might take a 4/$40m range deal a year from free agency and the Marlins make a bet he figured out the walks. Scott is probably a $60m+ pitcher in free agency right now. Same thing, do you take the guaranteed money or bet on yourself a year. Once a reliever contract gets to those numbers, I feel they have to take it. He'd still be a FA at 33 to get another 2-3 year deal which is great for a reliever.

They won't win every deal, but if you do enough of them, they will start shaving that bottom line. This is Rays 101 - B. Lowe, Springs, Fairbanks, Yandy, and sadly Franco (prior to that Zobrist, Archer, Snell, Longoria, and some others), all got deals. That lets them afford guys like Eflin and Morton who they outright sign for not insignificant more than Garcia level money. If the Marlins end up trading Luzardo and Arrarz, and don't want to commit payroll to an elite reliever in FA years, believe me - I get it. But then that swings back to so what about and minimum Eury, Jazz, and maybe a speculative Cabrera move and take a bet on your player at prices where he doesn't hurt you if he goes full Scott Kingery.

So that's why there should be and is doom and gloom. A mini-rebuild to get tons of young assets and clear out payroll (this is moving Luzardo, Arraez, Scott, eating some Bell, Berti, etc.). Unfortunately, I can buy this philosophy 100%. They were super lucky with the 1 run luck, so they can rally behind keeping the other arms and having some offense in place with Jazz/Burger/Sanchez/Edwards/Fortes/DLC/Brujan filling out half the bats quickly. Bring the mega-deals for the Baltimore and Boston guys and target 2025 with Sandy healthy and more innings for Eury, Cabrera, Max, and Rogers when you now have theoretically $25+m in FA you're not spending on the other guys. That's a 1 year reset and would look good if Mayo, Basallo, Mayer, and Yorke were the guys coming back for instance which isn't unthinkable.

But I am lost QUICKLY on no extension talks that even if they do move out the money with those guys above, we still have Eury, Jazz, and Cabrera to talk about and I think we all agree here, we'd all bet on those guys so why is this not happening? Maybe it is and we're (I'm) chicken(s) with no heads on a message board, but this team isn't 3 years away despite the 1 run luck, and Bruce and/or Bendix are assholes if they think it is. It's only 3 years away because of 1 and only 1 thing - Bruce Sherman refusing to spend bottom 19th payroll money after doing jack shit for 5 years. You can trade Noble + prospects for Adames (and extend him) and D. Williams and the Brewers will be thrilled as they have their own 1 year or more reset coming, then go out and sign mid/low FA for 1 year deals like Lorenzen/etc., Duvall/etc., and trade for Joey Bart/sign Kninzer, and you're 19th in payroll around smaller media markets in Seattle and Minneapolis who you should be outspending.

So yea, doom and gloom? For me, they earned it. And if they point to no fans go to the games, they earned that too for decades of ownership being horrendous. Bruce hasn't changed the narrative. He's made it worse. Jeff would be signing some of these guys to arbitration buyouts. He did with Hanley and they have similar type players.

Again not yelling at you, yelling into the sky as to why we can't have nice things when the bar is let's have a bottom 1/3rd ownership group not bottom 3.

[lou]

He was never the decision maker, and now he has complete autonomy. Let’s see what he does with it before we crown him some type of savior.

I'm with you here. Frankly, if they want to put their own imprint on the team and have it be 3 years even though that's crazy - just be honest with us. This is why the organization sucks so much. Saying bullshit like we're not trying to cut things, but then do nothing and try and sell us running it back without Sandy and Soler is going to work with the best 1 run luck in decades. Yea good luck, sub 75 wins coming fast with a lot of 3-2, 3-1 losses.

I would have more respect for them if they do trade Luzardo, Arraez, Scott, Berti, Bell + money, Chargois, and Okert right now, simultaneously extending Eury, Jazz, and Cabrera, and then using some of that saved money for a bunch of 1 year assets (similar to Royals and Mets) which could help bridge to a contender in a perfect scenario if they hit immediately on whatever comes back, or becomes trade assets at the deadline to do it again. I would respect unapologetic baseball moves. That shows vision where you acknowledge you need depth in players, but showing the fans its part of a cohesive strategy signing guys before they become insanely expensive to break this literal never ending cycle. Sandy was a start, but he can't be the only one here.

I said this months ago - the best decisions are to do a mini blow up or go all-in and move that payroll to $130-140m to get those last 3-4 guys they really need. The worst decision is doing nothing and while I will give them till the opener for sure, so far they are doing nothing. So I'm not impressed at all because similar to Kim, Bendix can control the roster like this even with Bruce's shitty budgets and he's not doing that. So we'll see before opening day what happens, but he should trade out all these guys and take the PR hit now and get the last laugh getting 2-3 major assets each from Baltimore and Boston and a slew of cost controlled relievers while clearing out payroll for some major 2025 dudes.

[rmc523]

No, it’s based off of his love for vintage Cabernet Sauvignon.

Of course it’s based off of his role as Vice President and then General Manager of an organization known for getting a lot from a smaller payroll. Which is (other than their alligator arm owner spending more money) EXACTLY what the Marlins need to right the ship drafting and prospect/player development wise.

I’ve said for years we need to poach someone from the Rays’ front office, and I’m glad we finally did. We’ll see how it turns out….while theoretically it’ll go well, it’s annoying to restart again.

[Nick]

Honestly the thing that pisses me off most, is it seems like no effort has been made to resign the guys we have. That's the biggest indication that this organization will continue to operate as the poorest of the poor. Even if they sign 1 or 2 1 year guys in Free Agency before opening day as bandaids this is not how you run a consistently successful organization.

[rmc523]

They have at least three (Arraez, Luzardo, Eury) of the better extension candidates in baseball 3, 2, and 6 years away from free agency, who collectively over the next few years may be 12+ WAR in players. And it could be more if Eury hits his complete top end. They are refusing to extend them because they are cheap. Everyone else except maybe Oakland in baseball - including the Royals who are now radically outspending the Marlins - is running to extend them. I can understand waiting a year for Eury. That's fine, maybe signing a Hunter Greene deal is a bit early. But if he goes 80% Fernandez the price goes up likely $25-30 for the same years (but that's over 7-8 seasons so who cares). And more if that 6+ WAR Fernandez year happens and who knows maybe he does it. So I feel it is in their benefit to sign him as if he makes it, they can't afford him. Luzardo makes absolutely no sense. You can sign him for 5/$75-80m deal based on the comps right now, and Arraez has probably scaled up to the B. Reynolds level contract (6/$110m), or maybe you can convince him to get to FA faster and do 5/$90m which is a lot of money. Luzardo is probably a $250m pitcher in free agency right now as Yamamoto would be the closest comp, and Arraez likely a Nimmo type player ($160m-ish). This is crafty IMO - targeting buyouts when these guys have already proven some worth with some more upside (I think all 3 of them haven't hit their peak yet).

And then if we get further crafty, Jazz is a buy low right now. It's probably under Luzardo 5/$65m range. He may be the type of guy to test FA early, but given his injury history I think his agent will yell at him loudly to take the money if offered and you still are a FA in your prime. Make a very loud public offer and make him decline it. So is E. Cabrera who you could probably sign for 5/$20m or so with super beneficial options on the back. Maybe he takes that before an expected breakout and you've saved tens and tens of millions. Scott is also a volatile reliever. He might take a 4/$40m range deal a year from free agency and the Marlins make a bet he figured out the walks. Scott is probably a $60m+ pitcher in free agency right now. Same thing, do you take the guaranteed money or bet on yourself a year. Once a reliever contract gets to those numbers, I feel they have to take it. He'd still be a FA at 33 to get another 2-3 year deal which is great for a reliever.

They won't win every deal, but if you do enough of them, they will start shaving that bottom line. This is Rays 101 - B. Lowe, Springs, Fairbanks, Yandy, and sadly Franco (prior to that Zobrist, Archer, Snell, Longoria, and some others), all got deals. That lets them afford guys like Eflin and Morton who they outright sign for not insignificant more than Garcia level money. If the Marlins end up trading Luzardo and Arrarz, and don't want to commit payroll to an elite reliever in FA years, believe me - I get it. But then that swings back to so what about and minimum Eury, Jazz, and maybe a speculative Cabrera move and take a bet on your player at prices where he doesn't hurt you if he goes full Scott Kingery.

So that's why there should be and is doom and gloom. A mini-rebuild to get tons of young assets and clear out payroll (this is moving Luzardo, Arraez, Scott, eating some Bell, Berti, etc.). Unfortunately, I can buy this philosophy 100%. They were super lucky with the 1 run luck, so they can rally behind keeping the other arms and having some offense in place with Jazz/Burger/Sanchez/Edwards/Fortes/DLC/Brujan filling out half the bats quickly. Bring the mega-deals for the Baltimore and Boston guys and target 2025 with Sandy healthy and more innings for Eury, Cabrera, Max, and Rogers when you now have theoretically $25+m in FA you're not spending on the other guys. That's a 1 year reset and would look good if Mayo, Basallo, Mayer, and Yorke were the guys coming back for instance which isn't unthinkable.

But I am lost QUICKLY on no extension talks that even if they do move out the money with those guys above, we still have Eury, Jazz, and Cabrera to talk about and I think we all agree here, we'd all bet on those guys so why is this not happening? Maybe it is and we're (I'm) chicken(s) with no heads on a message board, but this team isn't 3 years away despite the 1 run luck, and Bruce and/or Bendix are assholes if they think it is. It's only 3 years away because of 1 and only 1 thing - Bruce Sherman refusing to spend bottom 19th payroll money after doing jack shit for 5 years. You can trade Noble + prospects for Adames (and extend him) and D. Williams and the Brewers will be thrilled as they have their own 1 year or more reset coming, then go out and sign mid/low FA for 1 year deals like Lorenzen/etc., Duvall/etc., and trade for Joey Bart/sign Kninzer, and you're 19th in payroll around smaller media markets in Seattle and Minneapolis who you should be outspending.

So yea, doom and gloom? For me, they earned it. And if they point to no fans go to the games, they earned that too for decades of ownership being horrendous. Bruce hasn't changed the narrative. He's made it worse. Jeff would be signing some of these guys to arbitration buyouts. He did with Hanley and they have similar type players.

Again not yelling at you, yelling into the sky as to why we can't have nice things when the bar is let's have a bottom 1/3rd ownership group not bottom 3.

Knizner already signed with the Rangers.

if anything, Bruce should realize the opposite…fans started coming back out last year because they were winning. People would come out more (and more consistently) with better teams. You have to invest up front before people here will forgive/forget.

[rmc523]

I'm with you here. Frankly, if they want to put their own imprint on the team and have it be 3 years even though that's crazy - just be honest with us. This is why the organization sucks so much. Saying bullshit like we're not trying to cut things, but then do nothing and try and sell us running it back without Sandy and Soler is going to work with the best 1 run luck in decades. Yea good luck, sub 75 wins coming fast with a lot of 3-2, 3-1 losses.

I would have more respect for them if they do trade Luzardo, Arraez, Scott, Berti, Bell + money, Chargois, and Okert right now, simultaneously extending Eury, Jazz, and Cabrera, and then using some of that saved money for a bunch of 1 year assets (similar to Royals and Mets) which could help bridge to a contender in a perfect scenario if they hit immediately on whatever comes back, or becomes trade assets at the deadline to do it again. I would respect unapologetic baseball moves. That shows vision where you acknowledge you need depth in players, but showing the fans its part of a cohesive strategy signing guys before they become insanely expensive to break this literal never ending cycle. Sandy was a start, but he can't be the only one here.

I said this months ago - the best decisions are to do a mini blow up or go all-in and move that payroll to $130-140m to get those last 3-4 guys they really need. The worst decision is doing nothing and while I will give them till the opener for sure, so far they are doing nothing. So I'm not impressed at all because similar to Kim, Bendix can control the roster like this even with Bruce's shitty budgets and he's not doing that. So we'll see before opening day what happens, but he should trade out all these guys and take the PR hit now and get the last laugh getting 2-3 major assets each from Baltimore and Boston and a slew of cost controlled relievers while clearing out payroll for some major 2025 dudes.

Yeah, it’s inexplicable why additional extensions beyond Sandy weren’t pursued. But Kim couldn’t seem to do more than one thing at a time, and took excessively long to “evaluate” things.

[rmc523]

Honestly the thing that pisses me off most, is it seems like no effort has been made to resign the guys we have. That's the biggest indication that this organization will continue to operate as the poorest of the poor. Even if they sign 1 or 2 1 year guys in Free Agency before opening day as bandaids this is not how you run a consistently successful organization.

you’re meaning extensions to guys still here? Or guys like Soler that are gone now?
either way, I agree…

[Nick]

you’re meaning extensions to guys still here? Or guys like Soler that are gone now?
either way, I agree…

Arraez, Luzardo, Eury, Jazz.

[lou]

Knizner already signed with the Rangers.

if anything, Bruce should realize the opposite…fans started coming back out last year because they were winning. People would come out more (and more consistently) with better teams. You have to invest up front before people here will forgive/forget.

Missed that one. But yes. They have to bake better bread to sell more bread.

[lou]

Yeah, it’s inexplicable why additional extensions beyond Sandy weren’t pursued. But Kim couldn’t seem to do more than one thing at a time, and took excessively long to “evaluate” things.

The only rational thing I can think about is since they are the professionals and we are message board jerks, they *know* they can trade Luzardo, Arraez, Scott, Berti, Bell, and others at the deadline and we'll say get 90% of what they can get now. i.e., lesser 3rd/4th players in deals and not changing the centerpieces. So no big deal to keep them right now.

So if you *know* that and are OK with the injury risk that someone can get hurt first 3 months of the season (which is then OK since everyone but Scott and Bell are controlled next year), they can do this "blow up" in July the same as they can do now. So we as fans, should all STFU and hope lighting catches again like it did in 2023, and if it doesn't, it could be a quick reset to trading those guys out in July for the 4+ new bats we want to match with the 2025 SP staff of Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers, and Max, etc.

This still doesn't explain not extending the "cheaper" extensions (Jazz, Eury, Cabrera, etc.), but those too can likely also be addressed (especially the two arms) after the season if we want to give them a benefit of a doubt. This also doesn't explain not signing some guys even as 1 year flyers, but again maybe that happens next 6 weeks and they are waiting out the market.

I can internalize the frustration until August 1st as by then, we'll have a real good idea of what Bendix's idea is. And if we don't, that's a real good idea of what Bendix is too so this will work itself out either way. It's just astounding to me they aren't trying to build off 2023 so far. They had such a great marketing opportunity to make some early splashes, which could have been just extending Luzardo and Arraez, signing a 1 year SP like Montas/Lorenzen/whoever and trading a younger arm for a younger controlled play now bat, and nothing.

I won't beat this dead horse, but I'd really like for them to care as selling we need an internal reorganization after you've been rebuilding for 5 years is an insane sell right now.

[lou]

So I think this is good news, but I imagine one of you knows more about this so would love some perspective - https://www.sportico.com/business/fi...ir-1234763076/

TLDR - Looks to me Amazon is getting involved with Diamond (Bally) so the Marlins TV deal isn't going to explode. Meaning maybe some extra certainty for Bruce now to open that wallet? (Wishful thinking I know)

[Nick]

My addiction to sports means I have to have some kind of Cable/Satellite Provider and 300 streaming services to be able to watch everything I want to watch. Sucks.

[rmc523]

https://nypost.com/2024/01/17/busine...teams-sources/
Amazon is poised to stream the games of five Major League Baseball teams (Marlins are in these 5) this season after extending a roughly $100 million lifeline to help broadcaster Diamond Sports emerge from bankruptcy, The Post has learned.

Diamond, which broadcasts under the Bally’s brand, will continue to televise the 11 MLB teams for which it has rights, including the World Series champion Texas Rangers, on cable. Though it may dump the Rangers and the Cleveland Indians before it emerges from bankruptcy, sources said.
The network’s streaming rights for NBA and NHL teams ends after this season. Diamond, which may not emerge from bankruptcy until after the current season, is expected to negotiate for the 2024-25 streaming rights so Amazon can air local basketball and hockey games going forward.
...
Bally’s has agreed to drop its name from Diamond broadcasts after the 2024 baseball season, a source said.