2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Ok. As far as I’m concerned I don’t care when it happens as long as it happens before Opening Day.

Also, Fangraphs has us at 82 wins as things stand right now. Bendix needs to cook up 6 more wins.

That's really generous IMO. I'd say it is 8-10 and probably closer to 10 based on other team moves. We haven't mentioned here, but the Mets are having a really smart/stealth offseason to build in a floor to maybe contending and acquire many assets to trade at the deadline to build their farm. Sadly, there is some major competency being shown there and little things like that are going to chip away. How are they ever going to win a game against Atlanta with what they are doing? How are the Marlins in the same sports league as the Dodgers and Braves?

That being said, 6 now + deadline larger moves because you didn't play your big chips is a path. I would say that's a successful offseason in a Bruce world, provided that some of that comes in the form of a major SS or C upgrade. We shall see.

[lou]

I saw Barry Jackson of the Herald said Marlins payroll commitments are $96m which I know is wrong, so I did some updating on my own list. The arbitration projections from the sites scaled down a little (yay?), so actual payroll is about $85m for this. This is what I would say is the best possible 26 man (and yes I know Burdick/Dane for Garcia is an obvious move but please let me just have him on the active roster for calculating payroll).


Bethancourt, Fortes
Bell
Arraez, Edwards, Brujan
Berti, Amaya
Burger
DLC, Garcia
Jazz
Sanchez (is a super2!)

Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
Puk, Weathers, Soriano
Chargois, Bender, Brazoban
Nardi, Okert

IL - Sandy ($9.3m)
Dead Money - Barnes and Cueto ($4.7m sigh)



As mentioned before, there is a $3m discrepancy on FG roster resources as to whether the Marlins owe Stanton this year, but that is for purposes of the TAX only. The Marlins owe the Yankees $10m per season in 26, 27, and 28. Cots has this one right and Fangraphs is wrong.

• Miami to pay $5M cash each 7/1 and 10/1 in 2026, 2027 & 2028
• full $30M amount pro-rated over final 10 years of the contract ($3M/year) for purposes of calculating Competitive Balance Tax

So if this is wrong, it's because they are DFA'ing Garcia and adding another CC player (+$750k roughly), and then say the sites are wrong on arbitration numbers and maybe this goes up another $2+m or so collectively as they won't be that far off over 10 arbitration cases.

It's an $85-88m range right now for this team, so I think they can spend $22-25m to match the rough 2023 payroll. Or maybe it's a little less with an in-season reserve for trade acquisitions. Let's just call it they have $20m bucks to spend absent Bruce being an even bigger shithead then we think.

[fish16]

bendix is trying to create the largest front office in sports history. sure would love if they stopped signing front office people and started signing some players. but it wont happen. this team deserves 0 fans.

[rmc523]

They’ll do some Jorge Soler-type signing during spring training. (Probably will be Soler) but other than that I’m not expecting anything else. Sure there may be a big deal that is made, but if it happens it’ll probably involve one of our major league pitchers.

Soler is saying he hasn’t heard from the Marlins at all

[lou]

Soler is saying he hasn’t heard from the Marlins at all

...... Which at a $110m or lower payroll and Bell, DLC, Burger, and Arraez on the roster is the right decision?

[fish16]

round up from Mish's twitter spaces thing last night- not signing a big name free agent, sherman not selling, sandy and eury are untouchable, looking at SS and C, and no extensions will be given this offseason.

[lou]

round up from Mish's twitter spaces thing last night- not signing a big name free agent, sherman not selling, sandy and eury are untouchable, looking at SS and C, and no extensions will be given this offseason.

::serious facepalm::

This means a semi-reset (or just a reset) to me with Luzardo, Arraez, Jazz, Scott, Rogers, Puk, and Berti* are all going to be shipped out next 13-14 calendar months, or if they keep a few into 2025, July 30, 2025 or so when they still aren't contending. Basically, everyone that will have less than 3 years of service time commencing next year isn't part of the Bendix plan if you aren't going to extend right now. It's now or never to sign those first four as it will be insanely cost prohibitive closer to free agency or once the season starts, and I think those back three aren't really extension candidates absent some real breakouts this year. This is disappointing. They can wait on Eury and Cabrera a year for sure, but Luzardo, Arraez, and likely Jazz are right now and it just really impacts the bottom line of having contending level players. Sigh. This is shaping up to be a very long season with more "trust the process" PR.



*I just realized Berti has 4.168 days of service time. Meaning he is controlled for 2 seasons and he'd get an arbitration3 next year. He is very valuable as a trade asset right now and could plug a transition hole for Baltimore or Boston for 2 seasons very cheap and quickly. He's probably like 2/$8-9 depending on what he does this year and that's going to be very attractive versus paying someone like Rosario or Merrifield more for 1 season, etc. Just saying here, an enormous throw in if they do move Luzardo to a contender.

[rmc523]

Ok. As far as I’m concerned I don’t care when it happens as long as it happens before Opening Day.

Also, Fangraphs has us at 82 wins as things stand right now. Bendix needs to cook up 6 more wins.

Yeah I think we’ll wind up somewhere around .500, but with Sandy out and no vet starter brought in, that number could easily slide with inevitable injuries.

[Namaste]

I have very little faith in what Craig Mish says

[fish16]

I have very little faith in what Craig Mish says

mish is right about the vast majority of what he says. he just stopped reporting rumors a couple years ago. he is the best insider of anyone covering this team.

[lou]

mish is right about the vast majority of what he says. he just stopped reporting rumors a couple years ago. he is the best insider of anyone covering this team.

I agree. He doesn't seem like a clickbait guy to me.

This all just sounds to me by that summary + their actions this is a mini-reset. No big name FA says we're not doing much this year, and no extensions means we don't feel we have the depth to compete longterm with the budget Bruce is providing us, so we must trade off 3-5 pieces + spare parts that will be painful to create 10-15 new club controlled pieces + open up the money those players would cost to get more players.

Basically, this costs roughly $50m in 2025 if they scorch earth and move Luzardo, Arraez, Jazz, Scott, Rogers, Puk, and Berti

C ____, Fortes/Banfield
1B Burger, _____
2B Edwards, ____/Brujan
SS _____, ____/Amaya
3B _____
LF DLC, ____/Garcia
CF _____
RF Sanchez

SP Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Meyer
BULK Weathers, Soriano, Fulton
RHP _____, _____, Bender
LHP Nardi, ______

They'd have some internal possibilities (Berry, Cappe, Mesa Jr., D. Myers, Burdick, Monteverde, many many RHP reliever types) to fill some of those spots, but more importantly, they'd obviously get a shitload of high end guys for.... Luzardo, Arraez, Jazz, Scott, Rogers, Puk, and Berti + if Bruce is comfortable with $110m, they'd have easily over $50M to spend in 2025 and maybe that's 3-4 notably players.

I hope this isn't the plan, or maybe it's a hybrid at minimum where say, Jazz and Rogers/Puk are kept (as they won't be that expensive still, add two of them and shift the payroll to $60m) and everyone else is jettisoned for mega play now prospects, but man. They just made the playoffs and we've gone FAST to they are really listening on Luzardo and acknowledging publicly we're not doing anything with extensions which is mind blowing. Bruce is horrible. Why did Bendix take this job?

It's really sad following this team. Just fucking spend $20-30m in FA on a SP and OF, and trade Noble Meyer for Adames + D. Williams and maybe try to win some games?

[fauowls44]

I have very little faith in what Craig Mish says

mish is right about the vast majority of what he says. he just stopped reporting rumors a couple years ago. he is the best insider of anyone covering this team.

Mish is definitely the best reporter covering the Marlins, but I think his accuracy is kind of overstated. There have been many times something happens and he'll say he didn't see that coming. I guess that is pretty much every "insider" though. I just think Mish goes on these Twitter spaces and speaks so confidently (and vaguely) everyone thinks he knows everything that is going on at all times with the team, which isn't always the case.

My take on the offseason is that they are sitting around waiting for prices to drop and players to take 1 year deals, like just about everyone else. I refuse to believe the plan was IKF or bust in free agency...

[lou]

Mish is definitely the best reporter covering the Marlins, but I think his accuracy is kind of overstated. There have been many times something happens and he'll say he didn't see that coming. I guess that is pretty much every "insider" though. I just think Mish goes on these Twitter spaces and speaks so confidently (and vaguely) everyone thinks he knows everything that is going on at all times with the team, which isn't always the case.

My take on the offseason is that they are sitting around waiting for prices to drop and players to take 1 year deals, like just about everyone else. I refuse to believe the plan was IKF or bust in free agency...

I agree, but isn't this a "bust" plan and indicative of terrible ownership not investing in their product? We'll do some minor things and throw in the towel in July if it doesn't work, provided we don't win every 1 run game again?

[Namaste]

but I think his accuracy is kind of overstated. There have been many times something happens and he'll say he didn't see that coming. I just think Mish goes on these Twitter spaces and speaks so confidently (and vaguely) everyone thinks he knows everything that is going on at all times with the team, which isn't always the case...

Exactly. I’m surprised how many people still fall for his nonsense after all these years.

[Nick]

I would agree, Mish is certainly the best source of info as far as reporters go, but I think the stars really have to align to have any information on a trade or anything well before it happens.