2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Boston traded Sale to Atlanta for Grissom.

They have a SS and OF to burn as well as more open payroll if you are thinking something massive with Luzardo is coming

[sports24/7]

Boston traded Sale to Atlanta for Grissom.

They have a SS and OF to burn as well as more open payroll if you are thinking something massive with Luzardo is coming

Apparently their GM said something today about being willing to trade prospects to get a quality controllable starter. They do seem like a good match. If you’re trading Luzardo, you need to come away with at least one of their top guys. Mayer feels like he may not be realistic, but I’d be seeing how I could make that happen if I were Miami. Roman Anthony is another interesting name.

[lou]

Apparently their GM said something today about being willing to trade prospects to get a quality controllable starter. They do seem like a good match. If you’re trading Luzardo, you need to come away with at least one of their top guys. Mayer feels like he may not be realistic, but I’d be seeing how I could make that happen if I were Miami. Roman Anthony is another interesting name.

Gotta be Mayer. SS or bust. They can easily add Duran and say Yorke, and the Marlins can add Berti and a lefty reliever.

Devers - Grissom/Berti - Story and Rafaella as a 5th MI is a really good depth chart as three of them can pop out to LF/CF and they have a few other OF options. They just need to sign a DH from there.

It would suck to lose Luzardo, but Mayer is a guy you swing on for sure. The rest of the guys would work themselves out. Then you sign 350+ innings and theoretically have $30m-ish to do it.

[sports24/7]

I don’t see how it’s possible, but if they could somehow come out of the deal with Mayer and Teel, that would be almost exactly what the organization needs.

[lou]

I don’t see how it’s possible, but if they could somehow come out of the deal with Mayer and Teel, that would be almost exactly what the organization needs.

Agree, but I don't think it is possible unless they were to add a very significant second player to Luzardo - effectively Arraez, Jazz, Garrett, Cabrera, Max, Burger, maybe Rogers or Sanchez, etc. They need Tell too sooner rather than later and as we all know, C depth sucks. I think I'd try and do something like this (assuming the "trade Luzardo" idea wins out as I still think a 5/$75 extension makes amazing sense):

Luzardo, Scott, Berti for Mayer, Duran, Yorke, Refsnyder

That also clears $13m bucks, so they'd be sitting at this for $76m in 2023 (Garcia is included).

Bethancourt, Fortes
Arraez, Bell
Edwards
_____, Brujan
Burger
Duran, DLC
Jazz
Sanchez, Refsnyder

Garrett, Eury, ____, Cabrera, Rogers, ____
Weathers, Puk, Soriano
____, Chargois/Brazoban/Hoeing/Maldonado
Nardi, Okert

If you match last year's payroll, you can sign four $8-9m players for each spot or apportion accordingly.... like Rosario (just say fuck it to SS defense and pray), Lorenzen, and two Bendix specials of lost cost pitching contributors. At bare minimum, they'll have Bethancourt, Bell, DLC, Refsnyder, and some arms to trade at the deadline but maybe they have the magic again.



Then this clears in fast by summer 2025 -- for $70-73m (Garcia is included) depending on if you keep DLC and Bender or go with CC guys.

_______, Fortes/Banfield
Arraez
Yorke, Edwards
Mayer, Amaya/Brujan
_____, Burger(DH) <--- Top hitting prospect Cappe presumably
Duran, DLC/Burdick/Dane
Jazz
Sanchez

Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Max
Weathers, Puk, Soriano
____, Bender
Nardi, Fulton


Even if Bruce is keeping payroll around $110m, you're doing a lot of damage with $30-40m in free agency here for an infield bat, luxury reliever, and bench backup MI upgrade. You presumably can trade for a catcher now, and maybe you do that with one of those back 4 SP I have listed and sign a SP to replace them, etc.



Effectively, if they are to punt 2024 (which yes I know is insane coming off their magical season), they can really have 2025 set up if they get the "3 bat" package for moving Luzardo + Scott + Berti (or whatever close to that).


Guess we'll see. Happy new years.

[lou]

Been thinking about a hypothetical deal to get Teel and not dish out Luzardo. News keeps saying Boston wants to shed payroll, so let's shed some payroll for them:

Story 4/$95m
Jansen 1/$16m
Duran (will be a super 2 next year, so more expensive faster)
Teel (club controlled, but this is to be one-stop C, SS, OF, RHP reliever)

Surplus value wise, I have a hard time putting this over $30m in value because Story and Duran are useful, but they aren't sure things and just could be ordinary 1.5+ WAR starters for the next 4 years. Fangraphs has them as 1.4-1.7 WAR players which I think is fair, and I do think it is notable to say Story has a 2.6 WAR his last 700 PA and Duran dropped a 2.4 WAR in under 400 PA last season with a hyper .381 BABIP. Basically, there is upside and likely a floor with Story's defense/random pop and Duran is a major RHP splits guy in 2023 just like Jazz/Sanchez so against right handed pitching, this team will be borderline lethal with that OF + Arraez.

While unrealistic, straight up, this basically means Rogers alone should get this done in a 4-1. Which is a trade no one would do as Boston could easily dump payroll elsewhere and I can't see the Marlins absorbing $115m+ for these guys, so it's an effort of deflecting payroll, and giving them some more value as a contender.

So Garcia is 2/$29m, they can have him in a dump so the Marlins could throw in more guys and they can DFA, and player wise to make up that value.... Scott and Berti to contend now, and say, Mesa Jr. to replace the OF defender. I'd make them take Chargois also to clear a little more payroll and he's useful for the $1.2m or so, and then ask them for call it $4m bucks to help the Marlins in 2023 for reasons below.



I think everyone would do this basically:

Story, Duran, Teel, K. Jansen, and $4m bucks or so

Rogers, Scott, Berti, Mesa Jr., and Chargois

Big picture, this is the Red Sox shedding over $90m over 4 years, which they are going to heavily value for current free agency/contending, and avoiding a luxury tax. The same way we want to save Luzardo, they also save Mayer and Rafaela here and get two very good lefties with top upside (they can afford to extend Scott you know) + Berti is literally perfect for them as they work in Mayer, Yorke, Grissom, and Rafaela next 1-2 years. I think Boston would jump for joy to clear $90m and Rogers/Scott/Berti for a collective $10m bucks in 2024 and all are easy longterm signs if they want more.



So if this went down, this is roughly $103m in 2024 for the Marlins, meaning if they match 2023 payroll, they have money for an innings eater to replace Rogers.

Bethancourt, Fortes
Arraez, Bell
Edwards, Brujan
Story, Amaya
Burger
Duran, DLC
Jazz
Sanchez

SP - Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, ____
Bulk RP - Puk, Weathers, Soriano
High Leverage RP - Jansen, Nardi
RP - Okert, Brazoban, Maldonado/whoever

w/ Meyer and Bender coming sooner rather than later which could be really big upgrades.


Just saying here, that team probably has a chance to get to the deadline if those front 4 SP do their thing. Story is a lot more palatable to me if they absorb Garcia (making him effectively a $16-17m a year player), and sucks to hypothetically lose Scott and Berti here, but Kenley balances out the lefty imbalance in the bullpen and I'll take the bet they get "1" good enough one out of Edwards, Brujan, and Amaya (or D. Myers) which is all they really need.



And if you're wondering about, but what about 2025 with a $22.5m Story and $17m Sandy around, this in 2025 is probably $95m. So yea those two would make close to 50% of payroll, but everyone else is very very cheap besides presumably Luzardo and Arraez (Jazz or Garrett or Cabrera could go nuts in 2024, but probably not payroll wise).


Teel, Fortes
Arraez
Edwards, _____ (Brujan)
Story, _____ (Amaya)
Burger, _____ (Cappe)
Duran, DLC/Myers/Burdick
Jazz
Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera
Bulk RP - Max, Puk, Fulton
High Leverage RP - _______, Nardi
RP - Bender, Soriano/CC, Okert/Monteverde/CC

Now that team at $95m is something in 2025 if we're talking about a closer + bench players + they could do the reverse Yelich trade and move Noble + whoever for a huge player potentially.


Lots of options here. Moving Luzardo to solve 3 problems works, but as always, they should weaponize their payroll and bail out someone who wants to shed. Boston is kind of perfect even if you want to tweak some players/money here as I do know Story is scary, but I just think that's worth it for that hypothetically 2025 staff above + Teel. I'll always say, arguably the best move the franchise ever made was paying Hampton to play elsewhere.

[sports24/7]

Looking into Mayer a little more, and the belief seems to be that his stock is down. He had an underwhelming year with injury issues. There’s even some talk that he had a setback in his recovery. I don’t know that Boston necessarily wants to sells low, but maybe he’s more affordable than I originally thought.

[lou]

Looking into Mayer a little more, and the belief seems to be that his stock is down. He had an underwhelming year with injury issues. There’s even some talk that he had a setback in his recovery. I don’t know that Boston necessarily wants to sells low, but maybe he’s more affordable than I originally thought.

No one is off limits prospect wise for Luzardo. Guys like Holliday would be beyond unlikely sure, but Mayer wouldn't be as he's a tier down. I thought he was untouchable because Boston had no other legitimate SS options beyond Story (Rafaela seems more of a OF to me), but then they traded for Grissom so they have more young depth now.

26 year old aces with 3 years of cheap control and at a perfect time to sign an extension for 5/$75, 6/$100, etc. don't grow on trees. Luzardo would get $200m+ in free agency if not significantly more (see Yamamoto who has a .1 higher WAR projection that Luzardo at a similar age). Dude is awesome, Bendix just needs to decide what he's going to roll the dice on.

[Nick]

Am I allowed to complain about how we've done jack shit this off-season now?

[rmc523]

Am I allowed to complain about how we've done jack shit this off-season now?

It’s pretty ridiculous that we’re just standing pat.

Mish claims some sort of big trade is coming soon, but I’ll believe that when I see it with his track record of late.

there seems to be a lot of/increasing rumors of Luzardo trades…..seems like a Marlins thing to do - have a playoff appearance and subtract from the roster…I know there’ll be parts coming back, but still….

[lou]

Am I allowed to complain about how we've done jack shit this off-season now?

Yes

[lou]

It’s pretty ridiculous that we’re just standing pat.

Mish claims some sort of big trade is coming soon, but I’ll believe that when I see it with his track record of late.

there seems to be a lot of/increasing rumors of Luzardo trades…..seems like a Marlins thing to do - have a playoff appearance and subtract from the roster…I know there’ll be parts coming back, but still….

Yankees package without Volpe is tough IMO, and not sure they can trade him as they need a longterm SS. Maybe Adames gets traded to them and then hold onto your butts.


I did some of my own rough surplus value estimations, and this mostly averages out:

Dominguez, Peraza, Vivas, I. Hamilton, and......... Gleyber

for

Luzardo, Scott, Berti, Chargois, Garcia, and $5-10m in cash to pay Garcia's buyout post 2025 and maybe shave a few dollars 24/25 regular season.


I feel if you are moving Luzardo you need to be one stop shopping for problem areas (ignoring the impossibility of C), so this solves immediate production (Gleyber, who you can extend or give a QO, and Hamilton is a good RHP reliever with control years), and sooner rather than later Peraza and Dominguez take over SS and LF/CF. They should both be up fully time for years by June I imagine and I think Dominguez is a centerpiece and think Peraza has extremely high upside still despite a down 23. Vivas becomes another Edwards/Brujan/Amaya and someone is going to work out for the bench. Arraez shifts to 1B, Bell DH, etc.

Marlins save about $12-14m in 2024 doing this, so they'd have $30-35m to spend THIS offseason based on 2023 payroll with this. That's where the Garcia dump comes in which I think is a major incentive to get a lot of that off the books as they have enough dead payroll this year with Sandy, Barnes, and Cueto (and Bender if opens in AAA).


Bethancourt, Fortes
Arraez, Bell
Gleyber, Edwards/Vivas/Brujan
_____, Peraza/Amaya/Brujan
Burger
_____, DLC (Dominguez looming)
Jazz
Sanchez

Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Garrett, _____
Puk, Weathers, Soriano (Meyer looming)
Hamilton, Brazoban, Ort/Maldonado/CC (Bender looming)
Nardi, Okert


Given that Rosario can play OF, I think he becomes a no brainer on a 1 year contract and deal with sub-optimal SS defense until Peraza gets his confidence back or Amaya's glove plays. Then it's probably a cheap lefty killer bat, or maybe they just keep one of those extra IF or Dane/Burdick on the roster. I wouldn't do much with the OF given Dominguez and Peraza will be fast tracked. Then likely you have $20m+ to spend on two pitchers and a SP and a 1+ time through bulk guy could make a lot of sense there. If they need another arm, they can get one in July but this should get them to July which I think is the goal.


For the Yankees incentive here, losing Dominguez sucks, but Luzardo and Scott are great and are major extension candidates at good prices since they aren't FA yet. Berti is perfect to plug in around Volpe and DJ, with O. Cabrera on the bench for a year or more if they extend him too. They'll need another do everything IF immediately, but they have money and will feel confident after extending the two major major lefties. They could trade for Kyle Farmer or Jorge Polanco pretty quickly at minimum, etc. They don't care about Gleyber at all here IMO and they have Verdugo, Grisham, Judge, fucking Soto, and Stanton for the OF while they wait for Spencer Jones and clear things out for a Soto mega deal.



Something like that is what I'd imagine. It's a "we can still contend now" type move versus prospecting with Spencer Jones/others who may not be useful until 2026.

Not saying the best idea also, just the Yankees type move. I would still call Baltimore first for reasons we all agree with as that trifecta of Marlins is also perfect for them. As well as the Red Sox. Pit them all against one another, and hell the Rays can also make sense with Paredas/Lowe/Azorena and maybe you can get Basabe or another fringy SS.

[Namaste]

Am I allowed to complain about how we've done jack shit this off-season now?

Of course. But I’m surprised that you’re implying the Marlins aren’t going to improve the team before Spring Training.

[Nick]

Of course. But I’m surprised that you’re implying the Marlins aren’t going to improve the team before Spring Training.

They’ll do some Jorge Soler-type signing during spring training. (Probably will be Soler) but other than that I’m not expecting anything else. Sure there may be a big deal that is made, but if it happens it’ll probably involve one of our major league pitchers.

[Namaste]

They’ll do some Jorge Soler-type signing during spring training. (Probably will be Soler) but other than that I’m not expecting anything else. Sure there may be a big deal that is made, but if it happens it’ll probably involve one of our major league pitchers.

Ok. As far as I’m concerned I don’t care when it happens as long as it happens before Opening Day.

Also, Fangraphs has us at 82 wins as things stand right now. Bendix needs to cook up 6 more wins.