2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

But their payrolls are going to be in the $70s-80s for years with this core (the pitching is so cheap), so Adames doesn't change anything even fitting into $105-110m Bruce budgets. It wouldn't be an issue until 2027 when Eury gets real expensive and did Jazz get signed, and that's why they pay the front office - you have three years to figure out an excess payroll problem in year 4, and hey maybe you made the playoffs twice for extra revenue during that so its not a problem. Frankly, go all prospects in whatever moves and then sign someone BIG. Like Montgomery. I honestly don't care who, but they need to actually sign another stud ala Seager and Semien if this is ever going to work. Nimmo, Swanson, Adames, Montgomery, hell even maybe Chapman (good defender, probably a high floor) or Bellinger. There is always a name. They need a 3-4 WAR stud player infusion outside of prayer trades and hope they hit on everyone. This team has a real good foundation, but it still needs a lot. Especially sans Sandy for a year.

I'm with you on extensions though - I think Arraez, Luzardo, Eury, and Jazz are musts (Jazz near must). They can wait on Cabrera (and Rogers and Puk) a year. Garrett they never need to extend. He's a play through arbitration guy as a soft tosser.

to me it's an easy opportunity cost thought process. You can potentially get a top 60 prospect at SS for the next 6 years dirt cheap and spend that 20 million elsewhere on the team or you can not only spend 20 million on a SS but also give up prospects to do so.

[lou]

Adames is very versatile there’s no doubt about that. He’s both pretty mediocre and a really good player at the same time. That’s tough to do!

Sum of all parts is he is very good and likely won't collapse. But there is always Carl Crawford type events so maybe he's one of those. I think he's pretty good and the only problem with an Adames extension would be years 6 and 7. You'll have built a good 5 year window which is all you can really do and then blow it up. That would align with Luzardo, Arraez, and Jazz extensions, as well as having a window with all pitchers available with Sandy before they get uber expensive, etc.

[sports24/7]

I think im the opposite at this point in regards to Luzardo and Cabrera. I think you try to steal cabrera long term and sign him cheap if he would agree to it and move Luzardo for long term cost controlled pieces like the Orioles have. We have high end pitching outside of Luzardo and his value will never be higher in a trade, and we have holes all over the place long term offensively. I think you move him and Scott for an enormous package of bats we can have for cheap for 6 years and go with a future rotation including a horse in Sandy, a phenom in Eury, steady Garrett, a huge dark horse who i think is going to be really good in Cabrera, and then see who pans out out of Max Meyer, Noble Meyer, Fulton, Rogers, Weathers, eventually Thomas white down the road.

And you can always sign backend guys every offseason if we need more depth. I think Luzardo just makes too much sense to trade right now if you can get the enormous haul of cost controlled bats that i think we can get for him.

Everything you’re saying makes sense, I just worry about the risk factors with Cabrera. The injuries, the control issues, and the inability to pitch deep into games scares me. Obviously if he figures that stuff out, he is a very good pitcher, and Luzardo has some questions of his own, I just worry about adding risk.

If you are trading Luzardo, you had better get an enormous return. Baltimore makes sense, but I might look at headlining it with the best SS you can get that’s relatively close. Obviously your first priority should be adding multiple impact bats.

[lou]

Everything you’re saying makes sense, I just worry about the risk factors with Cabrera. The injuries, the control issues, and the inability to pitch deep into games scares me. Obviously if he figures that stuff out, he is a very good pitcher, and Luzardo has some questions of his own, I just worry about adding risk.

If you are trading Luzardo, you had better get an enormous return. Baltimore makes sense, but I might look at headlining it with the best SS you can get that’s relatively close. Obviously your first priority should be adding multiple impact bats.

Cabrera has proven nothing so just to add here concerning "the risk," the most realistic comp is Aaron Asbhy (MIL). He signed his extension before he got hurt and effectively, he signed away his 5 remaining club controlled years for $20.5m guarantee, with two options on the back end for $9m and $13m respectively. I think Cabrera is very similar to him who can project to be an excellent SP if he makes it. Max value is 7/$41.5 for Ashby. For comparison, Hunter Greene (higher pedigree than Ashby) has one of the two high water marks in the other direction getting a $53m guarantee (he has options on top), and then Strider has the top buyout and he got $75m guaranteed. I think Strider was an overpay and they did it to really deflect some luxury tax numbers for them, but he'll still be used for a comp. Strider did sign after he dropped a 4.9 WAR devastating season so he had some proof in concept working for him.

When we're talking about Cabrera, we're talking about an Ashby level deal. Not a Sandy, Strider, or Pablo (he got over $70m for some FA years). It's under a $25m "club control" years buyout deal and probably closer to $20m then $25m for Cabrera with options at the back like Ashby and Greene. Would he take it? Depends. Does he want to set himself up for life with getting into the $20s of millions guaranteed right now prior to the season and risk missing on a more Greene/Strider extension in a year among guys with real low service time? He'll make made more $$$ than both Pablo and Sandy through year 6 of service time if he does that (which is crazy to think about), but then get HAMMERED years 7 and 8 with really club beneficial options similar to Ashby. For perspective, Sandy/Pablo are going to make $15-25m more than Ashby in just years 7 and 8. Big money right there. That's the rub and what the Marlins would effectively be betting on. That 2029-2030 Edward Cabrera is a total killer. I think he'd have to highly consider the Marlins guaranteeing him over $20m bucks based on what he has shown and volatility in pitching.

So risk? I'd risk that if it's a 5/$20 deal with two club options to get him to 7/$42m similar to Ashby. That's nothing. So he turns into a good reliever, whatever. That's not killing the payroll.

Conversely, I think Luzardo costs 4/$60m (real premium for less years), 5/$75m (this is the sweet spot for everyone) or 6/$100m with a 7th year option for $20-25m right now. Let them explode with a positive performance, and we start all saying "fuck around and find out" payroll wise. Luzardo replicating last year becomes untenable for the Marlins to sign post 2024, so it's now or never.

Which is why fish16 and I may disagree on quite a variety of things, but signing Eury to a Hunter Greene level deal is like breathing air to this franchise. The Brewers did it with Chourio just now. You gotta lock in those guys like the Reds did with Greene.

But Cabrera? throw $18m-20m guaranteed at him with two real healthy options to get to that 7/$41m number Ashby got. That becomes real interesting.

So would you risk that? That's what I think fish16 is saying here. Personally, if he would take an Ashby deal I think you do it. He could be a monster.

[lou]

If you are trading Luzardo, you had better get an enormous return. Baltimore makes sense, but I might look at headlining it with the best SS you can get that’s relatively close. Obviously your first priority should be adding multiple impact bats.

Oh and for this part, yes.

If we're looking around baseball for the best centerpieces, Minnesota with Royce Lewis/Brooks Lee for SS screams to the top for me for a SS on a team that does want to contend now, and Basallo + someone else awesome (Mayo is a good one and get Ortiz as a 3rd player) or Rushing(LAD) + someone else awesome (Busch and Pages?) get the list narrowed fast. I can't imagine Volpe or someone like that is available, but maybe they are fine getting a SP and using Peraza there. Volpe would certainly fit the bill if he's on the table. Maybe the Cardinals would keep Edman at SS and Wynn gets on the table with their other guys.

I'd definitely call Baltimore 1st or 2nd along with Minnesota, and check in to see how nuts the Cardinals or Yankees want to get. There are so many good salary dumps on both those teams (Vazquez, Farmer, Polanco, Kepler.... Hays, Santander, McCann) to get some added veterans for the Marlins on top of prospects, and both of them also need lefty relievers. I think if they actually will move Luzardo, hold onto your butt. It'll be a monstrous bidding war and Lee will be the happiest guy around when he sees that return land. Maybe even Boston would move Mayer and play Story back at SS. I think every team in baseball wants to give Luzardo that 5/$75m deal mentioned above, except maybe the Marlins, Rays, and As. He'd take it in a heartbeat.

[sports24/7]

Cabrera has proven nothing so just to add here concerning "the risk," the most realistic comp is Aaron Asbhy (MIL). He signed his extension before he got hurt and effectively, he signed away his 5 remaining club controlled years for $20.5m guarantee, with two options on the back end for $9m and $13m respectively. I think Cabrera is very similar to him who can project to be an excellent SP if he makes it. Max value is 7/$41.5 for Ashby. For comparison, Hunter Greene (higher pedigree than Ashby) has one of the two high water marks in the other direction getting a $53m guarantee (he has options on top), and then Strider has the top buyout and he got $75m guaranteed. I think Strider was an overpay and they did it to really deflect some luxury tax numbers for them, but he'll still be used for a comp. Strider did sign after he dropped a 4.9 WAR devastating season so he had some proof in concept working for him.

When we're talking about Cabrera, we're talking about an Ashby level deal. Not a Sandy, Strider, or Pablo (he got over $70m for some FA years). It's under a $25m "club control" years buyout deal and probably closer to $20m then $25m for Cabrera with options at the back like Ashby and Greene. Would he take it? Depends. Does he want to set himself up for life with getting into the $20s of millions guaranteed right now prior to the season and risk missing on a more Greene/Strider extension in a year among guys with real low service time? He'll make made more $$$ than both Pablo and Sandy through year 6 of service time if he does that (which is crazy to think about), but then get HAMMERED years 7 and 8 with really club beneficial options similar to Ashby. For perspective, Sandy/Pablo are going to make $15-25m more than Ashby in just years 7 and 8. Big money right there. That's the rub and what the Marlins would effectively be betting on. That 2029-2030 Edward Cabrera is a total killer. I think he'd have to highly consider the Marlins guaranteeing him over $20m bucks based on what he has shown and volatility in pitching.

So risk? I'd risk that if it's a 5/$20 deal with two club options to get him to 7/$42m similar to Ashby. That's nothing. So he turns into a good reliever, whatever. That's not killing the payroll.

Conversely, I think Luzardo costs 4/$60m (real premium for less years), 5/$75m (this is the sweet spot for everyone) or 6/$100m with a 7th year option for $20-25m right now. Let them explode with a positive performance, and we start all saying "fuck around and find out" payroll wise. Luzardo replicating last year becomes untenable for the Marlins to sign post 2024, so it's now or never.

Which is why fish16 and I may disagree on quite a variety of things, but signing Eury to a Hunter Greene level deal is like breathing air to this franchise. The Brewers did it with Chourio just now. You gotta lock in those guys like the Reds did with Greene.

But Cabrera? throw $18m-20m guaranteed at him with two real healthy options to get to that 7/$41m number Ashby got. That becomes real interesting.

So would you risk that? That's what I think fish16 is saying here. Personally, if he would take an Ashby deal I think you do it. He could be a monster.

When I was talking about risk, I wasn’t suggesting I wouldn’t sign Cabrera on its own. I was talking about if I had the choice between a good package and keeping Luzardo longterm vs a great package and keeping Cabrera longterm, I think there’s more risk in a vacuum in the latter, especially if you’re bringing back prospects. I wasn’t really even factoring in cost, which I guess is silly when it comes to the Marlins.

[sports24/7]

Oh and for this part, yes.

If we're looking around baseball for the best centerpieces, Minnesota with Royce Lewis/Brooks Lee for SS screams to the top for me for a SS on a team that does want to contend now, and Basallo + someone else awesome (Mayo is a good one and get Ortiz as a 3rd player) or Rushing(LAD) + someone else awesome (Busch and Pages?) get the list narrowed fast. I can't imagine Volpe or someone like that is available, but maybe they are fine getting a SP and using Peraza there. Volpe would certainly fit the bill if he's on the table. Maybe the Cardinals would keep Edman at SS and Wynn gets on the table with their other guys.

I'd definitely call Baltimore 1st or 2nd along with Minnesota, and check in to see how nuts the Cardinals or Yankees want to get. There are so many good salary dumps on both those teams (Vazquez, Farmer, Polanco, Kepler.... Hays, Santander, McCann) to get some added veterans for the Marlins on top of prospects, and both of them also need lefty relievers. I think if they actually will move Luzardo, hold onto your butt. It'll be a monstrous bidding war and Lee will be the happiest guy around when he sees that return land. Maybe even Boston would move Mayer and play Story back at SS. I think every team in baseball wants to give Luzardo that 5/$75m deal mentioned above, except maybe the Marlins, Rays, and As. He'd take it in a heartbeat.

Agreed. Although it would be an awfully tough pill to swallow giving up big time value for a package headlined by Lee when they could have just drafted him in the first place, like they should have.

[fish16]

not that the website is great but that trade value websites deal of the day is Cowser and Westburg for Luzardo. I would add whatever it takes for Ortiz to be added to that deal, even if it means scott. You add a corner OF, 3b, and SS of the future while still maintaining Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, both Meyer's, garrett, Rogers, White, Fulton, etc. It's a no brainer. Completely changes the long term trajectory of the team. I hope they can pull that off.

[lou]

not that the website is great but that trade value websites deal of the day is Cowser and Westburg for Luzardo. I would add whatever it takes for Ortiz to be added to that deal, even if it means scott. You add a corner OF, 3b, and SS of the future while still maintaining Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, both Meyer's, garrett, Rogers, White, Fulton, etc. It's a no brainer. Completely changes the long term trajectory of the team. I hope they can pull that off.

Baseball Trade Values says this is a good deal for Baltimore:

Luzardo, Berti, Okert ----> Westburg, Kjerstad, Ortiz, R. Urias

Berti is real valuable for them IMO to play everywhere and Okert is a really good 2nd/3rd lefty. They could roll this out quickly:

Aldy, McCann
Mountcastle, O'Hearn
Berti, Norby
Holliday, Mateo
Gunnar
Hays
Mullins
Cowser, Santander

AAA - Mayo (3B/1B), Basallo (C/1B), many projectable OF. They'll be able to internally replace McCann, O'Hearn, Berti, Mateo, Hays, Mullins, and Santander with their farm + 1-3 free agents and they may be bench guys.


Not sure Baltimore would do it as that's a lot for effectively Luzardo who you have to give a $75m+ contract, but that's half the price Montgomery may cost and Luzardo is better and younger. Maybe chipping in Mesa Jr. and/or Ian Lewis would do it sort of thing. i.e., things that don't matter.



Now amuse me and say the Marlins trade Bell to someone and eat $8m (to save $8.5m), the Marlins are then rolling this out for $75m.

Bethancourt, Fortes
Arraez (Burger)
Westburg, Brujan (Edwards)
Ortiz, Urias (Maybe Brujan)
Burger (Westburg/Urias/Brujan)
Kjerstad, DLC
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez

Eury, Garrett, _____, Cabrera, Rogers
_____, Puk, Weathers
Scott, ____, Nardi
____, Chargois, Brazoban

If the Marlins match 2023 payroll as Miami Herald suggested, they have a $30m budget to sign a SP to get to $105m, and effectively three relievers (one ideally being a bulk guy). That is getting you a 3/4 SP on a 1 year deal (roughly $11-14m) and you have a bunch of money for a really good right handed reliever, and then innings eaters..... while the team waits on Max and Bender recoveries. I bet Montas, Lorenzen, and Robertson fit into $30m, and yes I know Robertson had a rough time as a Marlin, but he's probably good and relievers are volatile. Maybe some minor back loading to Montas there with a real big 2nd year club option and buyout.

A lot of faith in the young bats (and the primary OF is three left handed guys), but I think this solves the bat issues for sure getting 3 big names from Baltimore. Once Arraez and Jazz are extended, I'll feel pretty comfortable moving forward with a very sustainable payroll.


Basically, Baltimore is great on their trade system.

BTV thinks Luzardo is also worth Brooks Lee, Emmanual Rodriguez, and Jorge Polanco + Minnesota sending $3m over to the Marlins. Another winning trade right there.

Do the same Bell salary dump, and this is probably $82m. That's $20m+ or so to spend on pitching, and probably just going for a cheap OF and let Edwards/DLC/Berti cover LF for the time being.

Bethancourt, Fortes
Arraez (Burger)
Polanco, Brujan (Berti, Edwards)
Lee, Berti
Burger (Berti)
____, DLC (Berti)
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez

Eury, Garrett, _____, Cabrera, Rogers
_____, Puk, Weathers
Scott, ____, Nardi
____, Chargois, Brazoban


If only BTV were real.

[rmc523]

Anyone else’s desktop version of the site completely illegible?

[lou]

Anyone else’s desktop version of the site completely illegible?

Doesn't work in Chrome, but works in Firefox for me so I just started using that for the site

[fish16]

in chrome you have to go to the security settings for some reason. Chrome views the website as not secure so you have to manually say it is secure and then it displays fine. i was having that issue for months.

[rmc523]

Doesn't work in Chrome, but works in Firefox for me so I just started using that for the site

I’m using edge. It’s worked normally until recently

[Nick]

Also, have had that issue in Chrome, not currently having that issue, though.

[fish16]

he's not the sexiest name but i wouldnt be terribly upset if we take a flier on joey bart's pedigree at C. Roll with a top 3 of Bart, Bethancourt, and Fortes. Good mix of different skill sets there. Bart might just stink but there could be a change of scenery thing with him getting away from SF where he was drafted to be the replacement for Posey in a terrible hitter's park. He doesnt walk nearly enough but maybe there is something there. Never graded negatively defensively according to fangraphs so maybe he can be a late bloomer and a nice piece for a few years.

We're not getting garver, so i dont see who else is going to be a ton better in free agency. He was a good minor league hitter before coming to the majors so id be fine taking a chance on a reclamation project if we combine it with Luzardo for Cowser/Mayo, Westburg, and Ortiz. That would be a tremendous offseason to me.