2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Mish is definitely the best reporter covering the Marlins, but I think his accuracy is kind of overstated. There have been many times something happens and he'll say he didn't see that coming. I guess that is pretty much every "insider" though. I just think Mish goes on these Twitter spaces and speaks so confidently (and vaguely) everyone thinks he knows everything that is going on at all times with the team, which isn't always the case.

My take on the offseason is that they are sitting around waiting for prices to drop and players to take 1 year deals, like just about everyone else. I refuse to believe the plan was IKF or bust in free agency...

He’s the best reporting on them, but it’s not a very high bar to cross.
he’s been accurate sometimes, but since that one trade deadline, he’s been hesitant to give much detail or report on rumors.

I think sadly the offseason has a few factors:
1) new guy - giving him time to evaluate the system in his view
2) coasting on playoff appearance

theyre going to do nothing and count on #2 while giving time for #1 and more moves (hopefully) next offseason instead of capitalizing on last seasons’ success .

[lou]

He’s the best reporting on them, but it’s not a very high bar to cross.
he’s been accurate sometimes, but since that one trade deadline, he’s been hesitant to give much detail or report on rumors.

I think sadly the offseason has a few factors:
1) new guy - giving him time to evaluate the system in his view
2) coasting on playoff appearance

theyre going to do nothing and count on #2 while giving time for #1 and more moves (hopefully) next offseason instead of capitalizing on last seasons’ success .

Agree. So..... Rosario, Grichuk, Stanek, and another #6 SP/Bulk RP reclamation project here we come 2024 and all of that costs $20m tops?


Which then sets up a totally bananas deadline because they won't be good so floating Luzardo and Arraez (because no extensions!), along with all the "rental" guys who look good on contenders - Scott, Berti, Bell, Rosario, Grichuk, Okert, Chargois, etc. Let's say they get Mayer from Boston (Arraez + Scott centerpiece) and Mayo/Ortiz from Baltimore (Luzardo + parts centerpieces), along with a slew of RP prospects and A ball guys, for all of that.


Then Bendix very politely blames the failures of Yelich and Realmuto trades, the failures of Kim drafts + Garcia/Segura/Cueto, Sandy's injury, and innings limitations on Eury/Cabrera/Max (and Fulton injury) for 2024 as a good-faith excuse of why this needed to happen in 2024 and they couldn't invest.


But then I post this July 31, 2024 for 2025 payroll, which is roughly $65m..... because hope is eternal

C ____, Fortes
1B Burger
2B J. Ortiz, Edwards
SS Mayer
3B Mayo, ____/Brujan/Myers/Cappe/Amaya
LF DLC, _____/Garcia/Myers/Burdick
CF Jazz, _____/Mesa Jr./Myers
RF Sanchez

SP Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Max
BULK Puk, Weathers, _____/Soriano/Monteverde
RHP _____/Bender, ___/Soriano + many new RHP from those trades
LHP Nardi, Fulton

And casually mention Danny Jansen is a free agent and there are plenty of 1 year FAs to help the OF/staff for any needed blank lines. They'd have $45m+ to spend on 3-5 players here with extremely cheap books moving forward as only Sandy is expensive, and only Jazz would likely get very expensive within a year or two (assuming they would then extend him at least. Eury isn't expensive until 2027 probably). I'm using 2023 payroll as a benchmark here, but maybe Bruce would commit more and splurge on that $100m+ FA bat.


So does Bendix get the last laugh playing the longterm game of half-assing this offseason, with a small hope they contend, but really hopes he can trade out 2-3 major guys and parts to do something like this in late July and acquire 3 major young starting bats + payroll space? TBH, that 2025 team is awesome on paper short and longterm and I do think those Luzardo and Arraez returns are realistic. The SP will be absolutely screaming and everything but C and LF has major major upside and Jansen + smart platoons fixes that quickly (i.e., the Luzardo/Arraez money).


This is where I think we're headed. So we're going to be pissed off, and then painful/smart moves occur, where we bitch about how much Sherman sucks because it is all payroll oriented, but it makes sense in a shrewd Rays kind of way to set up 2025 and beyond. We'll see.

[rmc523]

I agree, but isn't this a "bust" plan and indicative of terrible ownership not investing in their product? We'll do some minor things and throw in the towel in July if it doesn't work, provided we don't win every 1 run game again?

Sadly, this is likely.

[rmc523]

Agree. So..... Rosario, Grichuk, Stanek, and another #6 SP/Bulk RP reclamation project here we come 2024 and all of that costs $20m tops?


Which then sets up a totally bananas deadline because they won't be good so floating Luzardo and Arraez (because no extensions!), along with all the "rental" guys who look good on contenders - Scott, Berti, Bell, Rosario, Grichuk, Okert, Chargois, etc. Let's say they get Mayer from Boston (Arraez + Scott centerpiece) and Mayo/Ortiz from Baltimore (Luzardo + parts centerpieces), along with a slew of RP prospects and A ball guys, for all of that.


Then Bendix very politely blames the failures of Yelich and Realmuto trades, the failures of Kim drafts + Garcia/Segura/Cueto, Sandy's injury, and innings limitations on Eury/Cabrera/Max (and Fulton injury) for 2024 as a good-faith excuse of why this needed to happen in 2024 and they couldn't invest.


But then I post this July 31, 2024 for 2025 payroll, which is roughly $65m..... because hope is eternal

C ____, Fortes
1B Burger
2B J. Ortiz, Edwards
SS Mayer
3B Mayo, ____/Brujan/Myers/Cappe/Amaya
LF DLC, _____/Garcia/Myers/Burdick
CF Jazz, _____/Mesa Jr./Myers
RF Sanchez

SP Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, Max
BULK Puk, Weathers, _____/Soriano/Monteverde
RHP _____/Bender, ___/Soriano + many new RHP from those trades
LHP Nardi, Fulton

And casually mention Danny Jansen is a free agent and there are plenty of 1 year FAs to help the OF/staff for any needed blank lines. They'd have $45m+ to spend on 3-5 players here with extremely cheap books moving forward as only Sandy is expensive, and only Jazz would likely get very expensive within a year or two (assuming they would then extend him at least. Eury isn't expensive until 2027 probably). I'm using 2023 payroll as a benchmark here, but maybe Bruce would commit more and splurge on that $100m+ FA bat.


So does Bendix get the last laugh playing the longterm game of half-assing this offseason, with a small hope they contend, but really hopes he can trade out 2-3 major guys and parts to do something like this in late July and acquire 3 major young starting bats + payroll space? TBH, that 2025 team is awesome on paper short and longterm and I do think those Luzardo and Arraez returns are realistic. The SP will be absolutely screaming and everything but C and LF has major major upside and Jansen + smart platoons fixes that quickly (i.e., the Luzardo/Arraez money).


This is where I think we're headed. So we're going to be pissed off, and then painful/smart moves occur, where we bitch about how much Sherman sucks because it is all payroll oriented, but it makes sense in a shrewd Rays kind of way to set up 2025 and beyond. We'll see.

I think you’re being generous with spending $20M…

I think we’ll be lucky to see half that

[lou]

I think you’re being generous with spending $20M…

I think we’ll be lucky to see half that

Just using 2023 numbers. Half that is likely $95-98m, so it would be decreasing payroll over $10m after making the playoffs. I mean I think Bruce sucks, but he's finding new ways to impress on that if he does that if he doesn't at least match the payroll and give the team a shot (assuming no major trades of core players by opening day).


It is however, a very Marlins move to bank the season on getting:

-AAA slash Brujan (who is a rough .275/.350/.450 hitter with a 10%/17% BB/K rate and averages 40+ SB over a full season, with alleged plus defense somewhere). Betting against the Rays here as no one lets that go if you believe in him. But he's 25?

-AAA slash Edwards (who is a rough .290/.380/.400 hitter with an 11%/13% K rate and averages 20+ SB over a full season, who is fine enough defensively to play somewhere). Betting against the Rays again here. But, he did have radical improvement in 2023?

-2022 Bethancourt who played at a 3+ WAR rate over 600 PA and 2021-2022 Fortes who played at a 2.5+ WAR rate over 600 PA, and you're betting against yourself here as you've publicly said you want another catcher and further betting against the Rays again who really could use a catcher themselves. But Fortes is young and a lefty killer, and the position is volatile so maybe they each hit, frame, and control the base paths enough to be mid-tier combo?

-2017-2021 A. Garcia who is an easy 2.5+ WAR player, or betting DLC finds his inner poor man's Teoscar and bashes 25-30 bombs and the defense trickles up like it did with Gurriel last year. Betting against father time with Garcia and the last season downgrades here. And I guess Garicia health and DLC focusing on getting that arbitration check in 2025 is motivation?

-Superstar production from Arraez, Jazz, Luzardo, and Eury, and well-above average production from Bell, Burger, Sanchez, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers, and the lefty relievers, with no major injuries.


I actually have some confidence the last one is true, but where's this minimum 6 WAR Namaste mentions (which I think needs to be higher of course), and they have $10m bucks to do that plus those hopes and prayers above? Bendix is a genius if he figures that out given he'll have to dip into Noble to find a major trade asset to build this cheaply. Stating the obvious here, but I am just AMAZED someone said "no extensions" when we're talking about Luzardo 3 years from FA, Arraez 2 years, Jazz 3 years, and Eury 6 years and there is the good Hunter Greene arb buyout comp out there. It's a sign of incompetence in Bruce or Bendix, hopefully not both as Bruce is a given.

[lou]

FWIW, so far the are doing well in arbitration and coming a few hundred thousand lower than cumulative industry expectations. I thought this four would be $500k or so higher.

Luzardo $5.5
Puk $1.8
Rogers $1.53
Chargois $1.28

They still have Arraez, Bethancourt, Okert, Jazz, Scott, Bender, and J. Sanchez to go. Arraez and maybe Scott are the only ones that may hurt with big number defentials, but overall I think the estimates will generally be close which is good.

J. Sanchez is also the last Super2. So they got pretty unlucky there. Calling him up 1-2 days later at any point in his career would have likely deflected him another year. Good for Jesus though. Gonna be an extra $500-700k or so this year and that'll scale up more for him in future years.

[rmc523]

FWIW, so far the are doing well in arbitration and coming a few hundred thousand lower than cumulative industry expectations. I thought this four would be $500k or so higher.

Luzardo $5.5
Puk $1.8
Rogers $1.53
Chargois $1.28

They still have Arraez, Bethancourt, Okert, Jazz, Scott, Bender, and J. Sanchez to go. Arraez and maybe Scott are the only ones that may hurt with big number defentials, but overall I think the estimates will generally be close which is good.

J. Sanchez is also the last Super2. So they got pretty unlucky there. Calling him up 1-2 days later at any point in his career would have likely deflected him another year. Good for Jesus though. Gonna be an extra $500-700k or so this year and that'll scale up more for him in future years.

Good! Bruce can pocket more money! Lol

[lou]

Good! Bruce can pocket more money! Lol

They settled with 8/11 guys with Arraez, Scott, and Jazz shooting for more. Which is understandable.

Arraez $10.6 / $12m
Jazz $2.65 / $2.9m
Scott $5.15 / $5.7m

I think they will win Arraez and Jazz, as they are shooting pretty high, but lose Scott as they shot too low, but we'll see. To mention here, it does make sense for the Marlins to fight these as Jazz's payroll would scale higher the next 2 seasons so while it's a small delta for this seasons, it's likely fighting over $2-3m over the course of the next three seasons and that's not an insignificant amount of money. Scott's a one and done so it's a why not try and save $500k. And Arraez is just a big difference and combined with next year, is fighting likely $3-4m over two years, So I get it. This saves them a 1 year contract with a good reliever in 25 or 26 if they can win all three effectively. Obviously I and most are super critical of the front office, but I don't think they are being jerks here and are just playing within the system of how this works. They only seem low to me on Scott and that's pretty solid over 11 arbitration cases.

Of course, I would say these guys are extension candidates but that's another story.


I also realized I had an excel error in the previous payroll mention. That plus some of the online commentators being off on Jesus Sanchez (who got $2.1m who I had down for at least $600k less) raise the payroll estimate to $89-92m depending on if they win those arbitration hearings or not.

So they *should* have $15m to spend on top of this based on 2023 payroll, and that includes a mini-reserve for the deadline and Max looming for when he is ready.

C Bethancourt, Fortes
1B Bell
2B Arraez, Edwards
SS Berti, Amaya
3B Burger, Brujan
LF DLC, Garcia
CF Jazz
RF Sanchez

SP Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
BULK Puk, Weathers, Soriano
RHP Chargois, Bender
LHP Scott, Nardi, Okert

IL - Sandy
Dead - Barnes, Cueto

[lou]

Marlins should put out a waiver claim on Cooper Hummel. Hasn’t done much in the bigs, but he’s like a .285/.420/.480, 16%/21% BB/K hitter 2021-2023 his last 900+ PA in AAA. I eyeballed that real quick to come up with the slash and numbers, but it’s something like that.

He’s a fringe catcher who can play some 1B/LF with an option remaining which is the important part. Maybe they’d get lucky and he’d be a bad defensive/hit first backup catcher. I'd bet on that general BB/K rate and positional versatility for the price.

[Namaste]

No matter what happens in 2024, at least the Marlins aren’t as embarrassing as the Dolphins

[Namaste]

No matter what happens in 2024, at least the Marlins aren’t as embarrassing as the Dolphins

[sports24/7]

Anyone wondering, Mish today was asked on twitter about the trade he said was close and his response was "Sitting out there to get done. Give it time."

Also, the Marlins signed some international prospects today. A couple of intriguing guys, with OF Luis Cova ($1.4M) the most highly regarded.

[rmc523]

Bendix has an interview, in which he basically said it’ll be another 3 years for the vision to take fruition without giving a timeline.

[Nick]

Bendix has an interview, in which he basically said it’ll be another 3 years for the vision to take fruition without giving a timeline.

Where have we heard this before?

[Namaste]

Bendix has an interview, in which he basically said it’ll be another 3 years for the vision to take fruition without giving a timeline.

3 years sounds like a timeline. Do you have a link to the interview I’d like to listen to it?

Bendix is overhauling a broken organization

https://x.com/j_mcpherson1126/status...5F6k6qnReU4cyQ